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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    This fund has significantly underperformed recently. I've reduced my position 75% over last few months.
    What did you allocate the money to?
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    This fund has significantly underperformed recently. I've reduced my position 75% over last few months.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/24/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:14 Topics
    00:42 The AI Show Goes On
    09:01 Booming Utilities?
    11:12 Housing Market Gridlock
    17:35 Jamie Dimon on Credit Spreads & Buybacks
    19:43 Roaring Kitty Says Goodbye
    21:40 Trouble at Target
    23:25 A Great Start
    Video
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    The quote above was included in a post you made approximately 2 hours ago on another board.
    This highlights just how repetitive your posts can be!
    A respondent replied: "Pretty easy to call that. When you are down 10% and pop 2%.
    It will work until it doesn't. You are only guessing."

    It appears the respondent didn't find this information to be very insightful or beneficial.
    That's my view as well.
    https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/50337
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Observant,
    Let's just look at one thing "Looking in the investment rear-view mirror, this "analysis" is not very insightful or beneficial."
    FD: there were many examples in the past, below is just one
    This is what I said on Nov 1 2023 (big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353).
    Quote "Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing."
    "You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ.
    "
    Now, look at the chart (https://schrts.co/GBZPhZKw)
  • WealthTrack Show
    I've viewed the results of a study which indicated stock markets in more democratic countries
    produced higher long-term returns. Although I didn't delve into the details of this study,
    it seems logical there would be considerable divergence between the least / most democratic nations.
    FRDM has existed for only 5 years but it has trounced EEM during this short time period.
    I believe much of the fund's performance can be attributed to excluding China.
    Link
  • WealthTrack Show
    May 25 Episode:
    Perth Tolle created the Life + LIberty Indexes on the theory that democracy pays. Her Freedom 100 Emerging Markets Index is proof, trouncing its autocracy-heavy benchmark in its first five years.


  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Oil change schedules depend on the model of car and type of oil (regular vs synthetic). Many imports/foreign brands have longer oil change schedules and use lighter oil (0W20, not common 10W30). Oil life meters (in newer cars) are estimates based on miles driven, number of starts/stops, etc. If my oil life meter is below 30%, I start to think about oil change (it' s usually time) - I don't let it go to 0%. Low-Oil indicator is a serious warning - just drive to the nearest gas station or call a tow truck.
    Car manuals indicate schedules for normal and severe driving. Many don't realize that low-mile, stop-and-go driving is actually severe driving. Engine doesn't get warmed up enough to burn up the condensation, and moisture accumulates in the oil pan (some start overflowing) - as the saying goes, oil and water don't mix, and in the crankcase, there is lot of stirring/churning. That is why schedules indicate miles or months. Regular oil also degrades with time, less so for synthetic oil.
    Oil changes have other benefits. The shop may alert one to various leaks, rusting emission system, poor tires, etc. Moreover, not following oil change schedule can void car warranty (so, keep receipts so long as the car is under warranty).
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a26590646/how-often-to-change-oil/
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    "I don't need to mention the whole thing each time."
    I've never seen you "mention the whole thing."
    You stated "diversification is a protection against ignorance" omitting everything else.
    "It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held."
    Regardless of your thoughts on this subject, it doesn't make much sense to benchmark certain funds
    (e.g., small-cap value, EM equity, small-cap foreign, etc.) against the S&P 500.
    "Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree."
    Your statement is presumptuous since you don't know how my portfolio is constructed.
    BTW, I agree that S&P 500 index funds are good investment vehicles.
    "Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be."
    I've witnessed the following over the past 5 years or so.
    You stipulated investors should have just owned an S&P 500 index fund or QQQ over the past xx years.
    Looking in the investment rear-view mirror, this "analysis" is not very insightful or beneficial.
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results...
    This pablum included in numerous corresponding posts, frankly, is rather tiresome.
    "And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000."
    As was mentioned previously, even the very best active fund managers will suffer bouts of underperformance. How did you determine 6 - 12 months is an appropriate evaluation period?
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    I d
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
    [snip]
    A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    [snip]

    There you go again - quoting Buffett out of context!
    Warren Buffett talking to MBA students:
    "If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
    get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
    I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—
    of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.

    That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
    All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
    They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
    I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."

    financinglife.org/learn-how-to-invest/warren-buffett-on-diversification/
    S&P 500 index funds have proven to be good long-term investments.
    However, it's ridiculous to benchmark all funds against the S&P 500 regardless of investment styles
    and objectives. It's interesting when someone who invests in a way which is diametrically opposed
    to Mr. Buffett's approach periodically "quotes" Buffett nonetheless.
    I strongly disagree that "A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance."
    Even the very best fund managers will underperform from time to time.
    Should investors move in/out of funds based on short-term performance?
    These actions often lead to excessive trading and inferior returns¹.
    Numerous studies have indicated frequent trading is hazardous to one's wealth.
    ¹ Skilled traders can generate excellent returns. They are few and far in between.
    I don't need to mention the whole thing each time. I have said hundreds of times seen that that Buffet said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance" and his second choice is the SP500.
    It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held. Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree.
    Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be. Every year you hear from many experts and posters why not EM, SC, value? valuation is great...and almost every year their portfolio lags.
    And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold SCHD out of the taxable today. Realized a tax loss of about $7.50 after several purchases since November 2021. Yippee yai kai yea, get along little doggies.
    The money will be reinvested in FDVV. The D/E ratio for SCHD is 3.36 and 1.50 for FDVV.
    The taxable has been slightly under-invested by my lights, so I will be starting a position in SPHQ, and buffing up some other positions. The D/E ratio for SPHQ is .83.
    Yes, there is a theme here. :).
    Selling today. Shopping next week.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Regardless of mileage, engine oil should probably be changed at least once per year.
    Can I change oil every two years?
    "No. Almost no automaker recommends that oil should be left in the crankcase for more than one year—no matter the mileage."
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a26590646/how-often-to-change-oil/
    "It’s not just about miles: If you don’t drive your car a lot, your oil still needs to be kept fresh. Even if you drive fewer miles each year than your automaker suggests for changing the oil (say, 6,000 miles, with suggested oil-change intervals at 7,500 miles), you should still be getting that oil changed twice a year.
    Why? Oil becomes less effective as it ages, and by not getting the engine warm enough, excess moisture that forms in the engine will not be removed, which can lead to shorter engine life."
    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-maintenance/things-to-know-about-oil-changes-for-your-car-a9532249359/
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
    [snip]
    A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    [snip]

    There you go again - quoting Buffett out of context!
    Warren Buffett talking to MBA students:
    "If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
    get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
    I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—
    of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.

    That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
    All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
    They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
    I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."

    financinglife.org/learn-how-to-invest/warren-buffett-on-diversification/
    S&P 500 index funds have proven to be good long-term investments.
    However, it's ridiculous to benchmark all funds against the S&P 500 regardless of investment styles
    and objectives. It's interesting when someone who invests in a way which is diametrically opposed
    to Mr. Buffett's approach periodically "quotes" Buffett nonetheless.
    I strongly disagree that "A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance."
    Even the very best fund managers will underperform from time to time.
    Should investors move in/out of funds based on short-term performance?
    These actions often lead to excessive trading and inferior returns¹.
    Numerous studies have indicated frequent trading is hazardous to one's wealth.
    ¹ Skilled traders can generate excellent returns. They are few and far in between.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    @msf, I do not travel or drive much, even when I was working, though my job allowed one to live on planes. I drive so little that I have not changed oil in my car in 5 years. I bought a few plane tickets on the Costco Citi card in the past year. I misspoke about 5%; it was 4%; I have to carry the Costco Citi card as it works as a Costco membership card. I forgot which cards dropped CDW coverage; hopefully I will remember to check next time I need it but my car insurance covers CDW on rentals. I try not to use more than 2 CC of my own in a month as I am asked to manage other family members’ affairs.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have multiple cards and am OK with going the extra effort to get the quarterly bonuses. Since I tend to use Apple Pay, I don’t have to worry about carrying an overstuffed wallet.
    On an ongoing basis, I have:
    Citi Double Cash: 2% on everything
    Citi Custom Cash: 5% on groceries
    US Bank Cash +: 5% on Utilities (electricity, water, trash service, sewer) and Internet, Cable, & Streaming Services
    Quarterly Bonuses for Q2:
    Discover: 5% on Gas & Home Improvement stores
    Chase Freedom: 5% on Amazon & Restaurants
  • TestFol.io - Free Portfolio Analytics
    excellent. is maxdraw daily or month end?
    Drawdown seems based on daily data. Here is the run for 2020 only to see more details of the credit freeze then,
    https://tinyurl.com/yc5rumev
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have a BoA card that pays 5.25% for all online purchases and 3.5% for groceries. Costco Citi membership card which I also use for travel pays back 5% on gas and travel. For everything else (tax payment, health insurance, P&C insurance, etc.) have another BoA card that pays 2.62%. They all are Visa. I will not be getting another card (or an Apple card) unless it is better benefits than the 2.62% BoA card and potentially a master card. I do not have a mental bandwidth for more than 3 cards!
    Each person's needs, spending patterns, and mental acuity differ.
    Your Costco card may have been a special offer that lasted for just a short time. Bach when Costco launched its Visa card in 2016 and and also now, it offers only 4% on gas and 3% on travel. The travel category is fairly restrictive: "you will only earn 1%, not 3%, for purchases made at timeshares, campgrounds, bed & breakfasts and for purchases of train and commuter travel." The Costco card also doesn't seem to include travel benefits like CDW (car rental) coverage, let alone travel protection (baggage delay, medvac, etc.) On the plus side, no foreign exchange fee.
    Costco+BofA works for you. For me, paying up ($95) for a "better" BofA card lets me skip the Costco card. It gives me a higher 3.5% back on travel which it defines much more broadly, including '"timeshares, trailer parks, motor home and recreational vehicle rentals, campgrounds, ... real estate agents, operators of passenger trains, buses, taxis, limousines, ferries, boat rentals, parking lots and garages, tolls and bridge fees, tourist attractions and exhibits like art galleries, amusement parks, carnivals, circuses, aquariums, zoos and the like."
    Since I do a fair amount of traveling (greetings from Germany!), use public transit extensively, and pay HOA fees (3.5% back as "travel" charges), this is a nearly perfect card for me. It also provides fairly good travel benefits, including limited cancellation and delay reimbursements and medical coverage. Unlike BofA's basic credit card, this card has no foreign transaction fees, so I get the full benefit of 2.625% (or 3.5%) worldwide.
    Other cards are gravy. If I can remember the categories for the quarter (Discover), that's just a bonus. Driving just 1,000 miles/year, I can live without a card that is good for gas purchases. Figuratively and literally, YMMV.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thanks, @rforno
    @Level5,
    All good. I only buy new issue Agencies, which are available at Fidelity. Yes, Vanguard does not offer those. I do not buy secondaries in Agencies because I get enough entertainment from equities, not to mention the transaction fees for secondaries. I try my fixed income to be as boring as possible, unless home runs are available on rare occasions. I try to strike a balance by not buying anything that can be called in six months (also, I try not to buy continuously callable) - a matter of time allocation. My prior batch all got called. I restarted buying.
    If the Agencies are AAA with similar terms, we should not expect a lot of spread over Treasuries. (Some States may exempt interest from some Agencies. I can shoot for 15% QDI Fed tax rate + 10% state tax or 25% Fed rate + 0% State rate. I just assume efficient market in evaluating all alternatives and pick the ones that best suit for my portfolio at any particular time.)
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Investopedia's definition of an absolute return fund apparently didn't mention cash as an asset, but I don't really care what investopedia says. Cash can earn 5% these days.