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Background to this upcoming event (October):So an unknown number of Californian tax filers are going to have a big tax bill coming due on Oct. 16, 2023, as they have to file their 2022 returns plus put together what would have been all of their quarterly estimated payments that they have not had to make thus far during 2023. That is going to be one giant windfall in October 2023 for the Treasury Department.
But here is why this event matters to the rest of us. Those California late payers are going to have to raise the money to make sure that their big October 2023 checks to the IRS clear. That is going to mean selling some stock, cashing out of money market funds, shifting money from savings to checking, and otherwise generally sending waves through the banking system to get their money organized so that they can cover those deferred payments. Writing a check to the IRS means that a bank then has to cover that check, and move money all around the system as the IRS cashes those checks.
The entire financial system has grown accustomed to that type of turbulence taking place in April every year. But this anomalous Oct. 16 for rich taxpayers in the most populous state is a non-standard type of ripple in the liquidity stream.
There is no way to quantify how much of an effect this will have, as we cannot see into the hearts and the bank accounts of all of those delayed filers in California. But it is going to have some meaningful effect that is an irregular feature of the normal calendar for banking and liquidity. By late October, all of the dust should have settled, and all of that moving around of money to cover tax payments will have simmered down, so stocks can get back to their normal seasonal strength starting by late October.
https://rsch.baml.com/access?q=KIjGPJuiY!IReiterate Underperform on shares of Hawaiian Electric (HE) which is expensive relative to our view of the fundamentals and deserves to trade at a discount to utility peers due to its banking exposure. HE owns American Savings Bank (ASB),
https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2019/05/10/pacific-current-plans-to-invest-in-sustainability.htmlPacific Current President Scott Valentino, described the subsidiary as a “Hawaii-centric non-regulated entity that invests and develops in a broad range of infrastructure.”
...
“Everything we own today is related to electricity, but we are looking for opportunities in transportation, water, agriculture and other sectors,” Valentino said.
According to Valentino, a sustainable future for Hawaii does not just lie in one sector alone.
“We are focused on the betterment of Hawaii overall, but we are really focused on accelerating the 100 percent renewable portfolio standard, and carbon neutrality across the sectors,” he said.
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Valentino said that Pacific Current is considered a “real growth vehicle for HEI moving forward”
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/16/opinion/the-day-the-lights-went-out-an-industry-trapped-by-a-theory.html[Through the early 1990s] most public utilities were regulated monopolies. They were guaranteed a fair rate of return, based on their capital investment and costs. ...
in the old days of regulation, a utility like Con Ed would be required to regularly submit a resource plan to a state's public service commission. The two organizations would forecast demand and decide how much money should be invested in power plants and transmission lines. Rates would be adjusted to cover costs. Under deregulation, however, nobody plays that crucial planning role.
MikeM, please reread my post, I didn't mention or promoted my system.Point taken @FD1000. You have said that your timing method isn't for everyone. That is true. And you have said that most should be diversified. But that begs the question, why do you keep posting about your system and trumpeting the great results you have achieved if the majority will lose money with timing. Are you trying to sway them to try when most will lose. Or, are you self-promoting? I have no doubt it works for a small minority. But the majority will never get it right.
Some of your advice is cookie-cutter good. Some, I'm not so sure.
Well, if you read my posts, I said the following hundred of times. Most should own a limited number of funds (mostly in indexes and low ER) based on their risk and goals and hardy trade. Trading is for a small % who can do it with reasonable success. But, the following MAY work for retirees who have enough and don't want to lose much. They don't care about performance, they care a lot more about NOT losing money.Some really good discussion here. A couple comments:
@FD1000,You are always self promoting this option. Fact is, 90% of every-day investors that try timing methods actually end up with less return over time. That is pretty well documented. Lots of people "think" they can do it, at least initially, but I contend there is a very small minority that actually benefit. I'd be the first to say it hasn't worked for me.So, just my opinion, good timing/trading is the only choice IF you can do it.
@fred495, @Observant1...This fund (JHQAX) seems to offer appealing risk/reward characteristics and it's less expensive than many "alt" funds.I'm definitely on the same page as you guys. I don't expect it to make the same return over 10 years as say the S&P 500, but you can say the same for most balanced, allocation or bond funds too. At my age, a smoother contributor in a portfolio with good upside/downside risk stats is valued.JHQAX has successfully proven its mettle over the past 9 years by "providing smoother returns by tempering downside and upside returns via a systematically implemented options strategy".
You are always self promoting this option. Fact is, 90% of every-day investors that try timing methods actually end up with less return over time. That is pretty well documented. Lots of people "think" they can do it, at least initially, but I contend there is a very small minority that actually benefit. I'd be the first to say it hasn't worked for me.So, just my opinion, good timing/trading is the only choice IF you can do it.
...This fund (JHQAX) seems to offer appealing risk/reward characteristics and it's less expensive than many "alt" funds.
I'm definitely on the same page as you guys. I don't expect it to make the same return over 10 years as say the S&P 500, but you can say the same for most balanced, allocation or bond funds too. At my age, a smoother contributor in a portfolio with good upside/downside risk stats is valued.JHQAX has successfully proven its mettle over the past 9 years by "providing smoother returns by tempering downside and upside returns via a systematically implemented options strategy".
I've noticed JHQAX (several others mentioned it) a while ago.
This fund seems to offer appealing risk/reward characteristics and it's less expensive than many "alt" funds.
They give you 100% of the gains up to the cap, rather than 70% of uncapped gains, but same basic idea.The pioneer of the world’s first “buffer ETFs” — exchange-traded funds that are supposed to limit losses during market selloffs — has launched a new product which it says offers investors complete downside protection.
Investors in the $7.5 trillion ETF universe can now put money behind the Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF, which began trading under the ticker TJUL on Tuesday. The offering comes from Innovator Capital Management, which launched the first so-called buffer ETFs, also sometimes referred to as defined-outcome funds, in 2018.
Buffer funds, as the name suggests, offer buffered exposure to stocks by limiting investors’ downside risk while also capping upside potential. …
Yet, Innovator says that its TJUL fund — which will track S&P 500 returns up to a capped percentage over a two-year period — will be the first of its kind to protect against 100% of stock losses. TJUL’s cap on potential gains is estimated at about 15% after fees.
Specifically, the fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets in options on the $423 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY), according to the fund’s prospectus. TJUL can purchase and sell a combination of call and put options in an effort to cushion against market volatility.
The outcomes set by the fund may only be realized by investors who continuously hold shares of TJUL from the first day of the “outcome period” — July 18 — to the end of the two-year period, which is June 30, 2025, reads the prospectus.
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