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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    @dtconroe: I am intrigued by your explanation of how you use of CDs and their multiple maturity dates. I spend what some would probably call an excessive amount of my free time juggling MFs and ETFs. However, I did put $10K into a CD for the very first time a few months back. Most of my cash is in MM funds, namely SWVXX. Do you not spend any time on the equity side of your portfolio in favor of monitoring what appears to my inexperienced eye a complex operation devoted to CDs, ladders, and redemptions? For my part, I am content with the pretty generous yield on my MM stash, which allows me to buy and sell assets quickly and effortlessly, without worrying if I'm getting the last 1/10% out of the dough. FWIIW, I recall hearing it said about a stock trader in old days when stocks were priced in fractions that, "He'd sell his grandmother for an eighth." I guess I can accept my mileage varying a bit lest I become become too obsessive.
    BenWP, I am 75 years old, devoted to preserving my accumulations with moderate TR, so my investments are relatively low risk now. Before retirement, I was very aggressive with a ton of Equity oriented holdings (Sector holdings, Value and Growth Equity Funds, some balanced funds, Global and International Equity holdings, etc.). After I retired, my investment emphasis changed dramatically to lower risk funds, focusing on Bond Oefs with low SD and solid momentum--my favorites were multisector and nontraditonal and HY bond oefs. In March of 2022, I sold everything, was totally in MMs, and started investing in CDs as my chosen option for risk management to produce guaranteed income. CDs require a special set of investing skills, and I chose to spread my cash around to multitude of CDs, in a short term laddering system. 90% of my CDs are in six figure CDs, but I do have a small number of 5 figure CDs. All of my CDs stay within the FDIC insured amounts, but my CD selections are more short term (2 years or less) with banks with high quality ratings. At 75, I don't have that many years left, have plenty of money to live comfortably, and have no interest in taking "unnecessary" risks, and am more focused on a retirement life, with minimal stress, and as much joy as I can muster.
    I wish you well, but I suspect you are in a different life situation, with a different set of investing objectives!
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Hank: Are you an investment professional? Where did you come by these individual’s performance histories? Must be from somewhere else. It’s quite rare for anyone here to ever post their annual returns. I don't.
    FD: this is an observation after posting for over 15 years on several sites. I can't find where I posted my portfolio performance here.
    Do professionals make more money than the SP500 over a long time frame? Bogle and Malkiel (Random Walk) proved it already decades ago that VOO/VTI beat most fund pros over a longer time.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Simplification is a valuable, important consideration. My wife is somewhat and sometimes interested in the investing stuff, but mostly about passwords, to sign-in. The tactical and strategic stuff, not so much. So, we have ALMOST all of our eggs in one basket: My TRAD IRA with TRP. Brokerage joint account at TRP--- despite some of its limitations. Her own TRAD IRA is at Bruce. And within TRP, there are currently 5 funds and 5 single-stocks. Manageable. Easy to consolidate, when the time comes. She's 9 and a half years from being able to "raid" her IRA without penalty.
  • Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund
    Supplement Dated July 31, 2023, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated May 25, 2023
    Important Changes to Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund (the Fund)
    Effective immediately, Michael L. Hong will no longer serve as a co-portfolio manager
    of Wellington Management Company LLP’s (Wellington Management) portion of the Fund.
    Elizabeth H. Shortsleeve will continue to manage Wellington Management’s portion of the Fund.
    The Fund’s investment objective, strategies, and policies remain unchanged.
    Link
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    @BenWP- it's really not all that complicated, at least the way that I do it-
    • Take a guess at how long I might be still around. Say, hopefully, at least a couple of years.
    • (Alternatively, determine a date when I might be needing cash for something.)
    • Decide how much overall that I want to invest in CDs or Treasuries.
    • OK, now I've got a reasonable horizon to think about.
    • Take a look at Schwab or other brokerage, plug in the desired specs: duration, non-callable, desired interest.
       (There's a page for setting up the specs. I use Schwab here as an example, but I'm sure that other
        brokerages have a similar setup.)
    • All of the banks listed will be FDIC insured.
    • Generally speaking, in a market like this one, the longer out you look the less the interest rate will be.
    • OK, now just buy CDs:
        • each one for whatever amount is comfortable for a single bank. (You're FDIC insured, but spread out
           the chance of problems.)
        • each one for a particular maturity-
                say maybe 3 mths, 6mths, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24. etc. That's your "ladder".
    • Now you've got an income stream with payments coming in predictably.
    • Additionally, there'll also be interest coming in at various times, depending on the CD terms.
    • OK, at 3 mths the first one matures. Then you decide whether to buy a new one or use the cash for
       something else. The interest rates available at that time may have increased or decreased.
    • Etc. for the remaining maturities. The procedure is similar for short-term Treasuries.
    • That's about it. If I can figure it out, I guarantee that can't be very hard!
    (If you're FD, none of this is worth your time.)
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    @hank. BF?
    Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)
    On Humility
    - “Humility makes great men twice honourable “
    - “To be humble to superiors is a duty, to equals courtesy, to inferiors nobleness”
    - “If thou hast wit and learning, add to it wisdom and modesty.”
    On money
    “If you would know the value of money, go and try to borrow some; he that goes a- borrowing goes a- sorrowing"
    ”Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt”
    “A Penny Saved Is a Penny Earned”
    “He that is of the opinion money will do everything may well be suspected of doing everything for money”
    Many of these proverbs appeared in Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanac.:
    ”The Almanack contained the calendar, weather, poems, sayings and astronomical and astrological information that a typical almanac of the period would contain. Franklin also included the occasional mathematical exercise, and the Almanack from 1750 features an early example of demographics. It is chiefly remembered, however, for being a repository of Franklin's aphorisms and proverbs, many of which live on in American English. These maxims typically counsel thrift and courtesy, with a dash of cynicism.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Richard's_Almanack
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.”
    Are you an investment professional? Where did you come by these individual’s performance histories? Must be from somewhere else. It’s quite rare for anyone here to ever post their annual returns. I don't. Can think of only 3 or 4 members who did state their ‘22 performance. For longer periods - none that I’m aware of. Your logic is questionable here anyway. The S&P fell over 18% in 2022. Certainly, “leading” the S&P with a loss of “only 15%” would not have been a sign of superior intelligence or investment acumen.
    I think Buffet is really cool. I’ve read dozens of his quotes. His bottom line seems to be to do your due diligence and buy companies you would like to own forever. He often compares buying a company to planting a tree. Sit back and watch it grow. But it is also true that for those who lack his ability or resources to research a company in depth, he thinks index investing is best. Temper that, however, with his quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." That means Buffet does believe investors should take into consideration market valuations and public sentiment in deciding when to buy or sell equities.
    Finally, there’s Buffett’s Rule #22 - ”If you want to invest well, don’t be a know-it-all.”
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    The FDIC coverage limit is 250k, so of course we stay inside that. Why trust any one bank when there are so many to use? Yes, I have to purchase many of them. No, there's only one institution to deal with: Schwab.
    We've all been informed numerous times that you're a brilliant multizillionaire, and we're really not terribly impressed. Perhaps some of us are, also. Maybe you should change your user name to BS1000.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    wow, only 50-100K in each CD? I would have to purchase many of them + deal with so many different institutions. The more details I read about the less I want to do it.
    Disclaimer: I never owned CDs or treasuries.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Yes, I never put more than 50k in one bank.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
    (wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
    He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
    FWIW, I find it intriguing when individuals reference Buffett even though
    their investment process is diametrically opposed to his.
    Maybe the word BASED isn't the best but I explained what I do and it all came to me from Buffett. I read other books and articles but none lead me to these ideas.
    Diversification according to Buffett is the SP500, not 5-10-20 funds which is how most invest. I disagree with "extensively diversify" part.
    https://news.yahoo.com/warren-buffett-investing-advice-thats-beaten-most-pros-for-12-straight-years-100054380.html
    Quote"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people," billionaire investor Warren Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting last May.
    BTW, Bogle also recommends 2 or 3 funds VTI/VOO + (maybe international index) + BND.
    The funny thing is that almost nobody buys and holds the above for decades, but they all know what diversification means. I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds. Generally, more funds = more trading = lower performance. This is a generic statement not toward anybody.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    I based my system on Buffett's (and Munger) 3 important rules: Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1 and Rule 3: Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I added a fourth rule: momentum. My system was born in early 2000. I didn't want to own stocks so I used funds.
    Basically: my generic system looks for the best 5 wide range funds with good risk-adjusted performance, keeps changing them using momentum, and each fund must perform well. The idea is to be mostly in the right category + achieve better risk-adjusted performance by looking at performance first and then selecting the best SD, Sharpe funds.
    Since 2017, I changed to only 2-3 funds, after all, I can't find more than 2-3 great ideas.
    BTW, Buffett also said many times that most investors should own one fund, the SP500.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Looking at Fidelity CD for 3-6 months(https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding) shows the highest yield as 5.15-20% while SCOXX pays 5.2%. MM is the easiest way to invest your money with a monthly payout, easy to hold using one fund, easier to change if another MM pays more, and easy to trade anytime when you see a great trade.
    As I said before, if someone bought a 6-month CD 2-3 months ago, he/she is getting lower income now and in the next 3 -4 months than the MM which keeps going up with interest rates. The Fed chair keeps telling us that rates will stay higher longer.
    If you want to lock your money for 3-5 years at 5.4% it makes more sense for a part of your money.
    BUT...Interest rates are at a high point for years. They are going lower within months from now and it will be one of the best times to make money, especially with higher-rated bonds.
    ============
    Mona: SCOXX vs SUTXX. They are both safe options and can be sold without gates. I have used both based on their yield.
    SCOXX=Typically invests in securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and repurchase agreements backed by such investments
    SUTXX=Typically invests in securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government*. This fund is prohibited from investing in repurchase agreements.
    What are repo agreements? Still look safe to me, read here (link).
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Something that does not discussed when considering CDs, is the importance of coupon frequency. In my taxable account I prefer shorter term CDs, withh monthly coupons, to ensure I have greater liquidity options. I use a lot of 6 month, 9 month, and 1 year CDs, which pay monthly coupons/dividends, although I will have a maturity date coupon for smaller CD amounts. I buy CDs in the 5 and 6 figure range, and it is not uncommon for the principal amount to drop thousands of dollars before the CD matures, and I do not want to be faced with potential needs for that principal, with heavy redemption penalties, in my taxable account. I try to maintain 7 or 8 of these shorter term CDs, with their maturity dates being staggered, so I am having CDs maturing quite frequently for liquidation options.
    In my IRA accounts, I am fine with longer term CDs, with more semi-annual, intermixed with a few monthly coupon CDs. I do not have as much liquidity concerns, but I do need these CDs maturing every few months, because of a need for annual RMDs.
    A few days ago I had a 6 month, 5 figure CD mature in my taxable account, and I chose to put it into my MM account with some big ticket insurance, travel, and holiday expenses occurring--I needed the liquidity. I also had a six figure CD, mature in my IRA account, and I have decided to reinvest that coupon back into a CD of one to two years, probably on a semi-annual or monthly coupon frequency. I am not as concerned about liquidity in my IRA, have no plans to redeem them, and if I should unexpectedly die in the middle of the term, I have survivor benefits for these CDs.
    Others may not care as much about coupon frequency, but liquidity and accessibility factors are important to me, along with ensuring I have sufficient number of CDs to stagger their maturity dates for frequency.
  • SP500 Pullback Numbers
    A healthy pullback for SP500 would be -5% to -10%. Note that from 7/27/23 high, the 50-dMA is -4.35% below and 200-dMA -11.08% below. So, the pullback may be seen as the tests of 50-dMA, then 200-dMA.
    Once the selling starts, where does it stop? Hopefully, -10% to -11% (200-dMA).
    Don't forget that 10/13/22 low was a decent amount BELOW the MAs, -11.42% BELOW 50-dMA, -16.21% BELOW 200-dMA. Keep your fingers crossed that we don't go there as that would be -24.21% below 7/27/23 high.
    As a practical matter, I may start buying somethings when we are down -5% to -10% and scale in more as needed.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11025466305
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    I'm OK with "only" 5.2% using SCOXX(Treasury) which has a guarantee for no locks. I stopped using SNOXX in 2022, and I'm not coming back anytime soon.
    This allows me to trade anytime with ease and flexibility.
    Another 0.1-0.2% for 6 months isn't worth for me the hassle. While MM keeps going up, the CDs you bought 3-6 months ago were lower.
    @FD1000 what are the differences between SCOXX (Schwab Treasury Obligations Money Fund) and SUTXX (Schwab U.S. Treasury Money Fund), besides the former yielding 5.20% and the latter 5.08%?
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Us cibc CD rates
    12 MONTH CD
    5.36% APY
    24 MONTH CD
    4.75% APY
    We may charge a 30 day penalty if you withdraw your CD funds before maturity.
    We’re backed by CIBC, a 150-year-old Toronto-based global financial institution. Our U.S. headquarters is in Chicago, Illinois.
    https://us.cibc.com/en/agility/certificates-of-deposit.html
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    M* shows VWINX at 5.23% annually for 10 years. I hadn’t realized they hew to a 60/40 allocation until I looked tonight. Somehow thought it was more like 30/70. That 10-year average stacks up very well against similar funds. And it managed to shed less than 10% in a tough 2022.
    Hardest thing is to try to anticipate how a fund like that might perform in an era of stable or rising interest rates. Funds holding bonds had a nice tail-wind over the past decade as rates fell - actually more like 2 decades.
  • MARKETPLACE- Let's do the numbers on CEO pay
    Nothing new and is especially rampant in the USA. No need to go further than Toyota CEO compared to the USA car company CEOs, while Toyota is a much better company.
    But, the solution is simpler in the US. Join the best stock market in the world and enjoy your retirement, you don't need to make a lot of money, just start young and invest 10+% of your salary in the SP500. The US has the lowest fees and the lowest min to start on mutual funds + ETFs.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    "The focus should be on the minimum needed to achieve an income required in retirement."
    The focus should be on risk-adjusted performance and after that look for the income. Income by itself doesn't guarantee better performance or better risk/SD.
    Example:
    PIMIX in its glory days 2010-2013(https://schrts.co/TRyXMDdV) was better than SPY, 2010-2018 better than many bond funds. In these periods it beat many funds for SD too.
    On the other hand, PDI, managed by one of the best teams in the world, paid about 10% annually in the last 5 years but made less than 6% total in 5 years. RCTIX made a total of close to 23% and SPY made 71% (https://schrts.co/vszPEmPD)