Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CD Question
    I don’t understand your comment. When I check the CD rates at Fidelity, the yields range from about 4.9 to 5.15% through the entire 1-month to 5-year range. The yield curve has flattened some, but the highest rates are still in the short term range — which makes sense because you can still buy Treasuries in the 1-6 month range yielding more than 5%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I use both for different reasons. Large liquid ETFs are okay whereas thinly traded ones can be volatile. Not everyone has a $1M to get into PIMIX, but Vanguard customers can get in with $25K. PLYD has a reasonable daily volume (189K) and it can be purchase in many brokerages. Watch for thinly traded junk ETFs as @junkster warns.
    +1.
    Duly noted and thanks for the reminder, Sven.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I use both for different reasons. Large liquid ETFs are okay whereas thinly traded ones can be volatile. Not everyone has a $1M to get into PIMIX, but Vanguard customers can get in with $25K. PLYD has a reasonable daily volume (189K) and it can be purchase in many brokerages. Watch for thinly traded junk ETFs as @junkster warns.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    We haven't heard much from JohnN in quite a while.
    @JohnN was among the kind folks who weighed in on my “burning” question - What’s the most you’d ever invest in a single stock?” last August.
    Here’s the thread
    Sounds like he had 15% in TSLA then. Hope it’s working for him.
    I continue to struggle with the same question. Recently I sold off two stocks, leaving just one that I believe is a good long term hold. Hours of backward looking research (covering more than 15 years). Anyhow … it’s at 5% and “diluted” with a like amount in a short term bond fund (playing name games here). So that combined they comprise a 10% portfolio sleeve. Intend to keep them in relative balance over time as a risk mitigation measure.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Had second thoughts about holding ET, so sold out of that 3-month-old position and will replace with WMB once my buy order fires. I'm thinking WMB has a more strategic portfolio and more stable/recurring revenue flows than ET. Paying about a 5.3% QDI right now.
    Also putting in order to re-enter PFE at 27.50. Like INTC a few years ago it's a hated stock that's paying a solid dividend -- I'm hoping it, like INTC, is able to manage a similar turnaround as it reforms its pipeline prospects in the coming years. But at over 6% QDI on DRIP is probably good enough to be paid to wait.
    Also stalking BIZD @ 16 as a rates-play on private equity dealmaking coming back if/when rates go down and potentially ASGI a bit lower for more infrastructure/utes.
  • Relying On Stock Investments For Income After Retiring
    @davfor ...in an ideal world, the dividends/distributions generated in your IRA would sufficiently cover your RMDs as well.
    I'll take you word for it. But, I don't face any RMD requirements. So, that's an uncharted world to me. About 90% of my investment $'s are invested in a taxable account. That account is the focus of my annual withdrawal ruminations. During most of my working years, available cash was funneled into a weekend real estate investing hobby. The limited $'s that were set aside in a tax deferred retirement account were withdrawn in annual steps from the age of 55 when I retired until the age of 62 when I began to collect social security.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/17/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/17/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (40.4%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.8%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.9%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +13,6% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (99+ weeks); Israel-Hamas (14+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. US election primaries started. WEF 2024, Davos is Jan 15-19. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1321/thread
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    .....
    Funds use the current yield trick to boost current yield by buying premium bonds (at the expense of NAV deterioration), or go for gains by buying discount bonds. While both have the same YTM, the effects on current fund income and taxation are different.
    I created an example to show this:
    10 Yr Bond in 5% YTM Environment, par 100
    3% coupon, price 84.56, current yield 3.55% << YTM
    7% coupon, price 115.44, current yield 6.06% >> YTM
  • Relying On Stock Investments For Income After Retiring
    @yogibearbull ...indeed. That approach won't work forever. Several studies have concluded that taking only RMDs would leave a boatload of money when we're less likely to enjoy it...which is why I began taking IRA distributions when I was 59.5.
    @bee had generated a post several years back with an attachment from Kitces with a spreadsheet to determine the most efficient withdrawal strategy, and I've adopted it to this day.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    The effect on duration is also different (higher coupon = shorter duration).
    We can try this another way, using the Socratic method.
    1. Suppose you buy a bond at $102 with a 5% coupon. Do you have enough information to calculate current yield? See Fido Current Yield definition. If you have enough info, what is that yield (rounding is fine here, this isn't an arithmetic quiz)? If not, what other information do you need?
    2. Suppose further that the bond has an annual coupon (most bonds pay semiannually). Also suppose that the bond is callable in a year (right after making a coupon payment). How much money do you receive after a year: coupon + redemption? What is its YTW?
    3. Suppose the bond is not callable, but matures in a year. How much money do you receive after a year: coupon + redemption? What is its YTM? Is this the same or different from the answer in #2? If it is different, why is it different? Is it the same or different from the answer in #1?

    "Mr. WABAC, what do you think you're doing in this class?"
    "Flunking sir."
    "And what do you intend to do about it?"
    "Buy some tooth paste and pay my utility bills sir."
    "Be on your way."
    My intent here was to inform. Given the posted definition of current yield, and given the statement that it was understood that YTW on a callable bond could be worse, I tried to build upon that understanding (and some 7th grade math, i.e. simple interest calculations).
    1. Current yield is annual dollar amount (i.e. coupon rate x $100) / current price
    So current yield = 5% x $100 / $102 = $5/$102, or roughly 5%.
    2. This is a simple interest problem, because there is only one coupon payment - at the end of a year. And the principal is also returned (called) then.
    Principal = $102
    Coupon = 5% x $100 (par) = $5
    Redemption amount = $100
    Final value in a year = $105
    Simple interest = final value - principal = $105 - $102 = $3
    Simple interest = principal x rate x time
    $3 = $102 x rate x 1
    YTW = rate = $3/$102 ~= 3%
    The YTW is less than the current yield because $2 of the $5 coupon goes toward returning principal; it isn't interest.
    3. Under the same conditions except that the bond matures in a year instead of being called in a year, all of the numbers above are the same. Same $105 payout in a year, same $102 principal. And the same $2 of the $5 coupon goes toward returning principal.
    It makes no difference why the bond is redeemed - whether it is called or whether it matures. The calculations are the same, the yields to redemption are the same. YTM will be less than current yield for the same reason that YTW is less than current yield - part of the coupon constitutes return of principal, not interest.
    And that return of principal is not taxed as income. Only $3 is taxed. See amortization of bond premium (ABP) in Form 1040 Schedule B.
    https://support.taxslayerpro.com/hc/en-us/articles/360031245634-Schedule-B-1099-Transactions
    (For taxable bonds, one can choose not to amortize bond premium annually. But that results in higher taxes being paid now, and at best recovery of the excess down the road when the bond is sold or redeemed. )
  • Anybody use Schwab Financial Advisors?
    Just my opinion, it's difficult to find honest, great CFPs who are fiduciary and put their clients' interests first. If you are a typical investor, a CFP should be able to come up with a detailed plan in 3 hours and charge you a $1000 (maybe $1500) regardless if you have $300K or $500K, and only based on the complexity. This plan should be good for several years to come, until something major changes. If the clients need help, they should be able to pay by the hour. Think CPA. If you use a CPA, you pay by the hour or the job. The CFP plan doesn't change every year, it's even easier.
    That also means, no ongoing annual fee + setting you up with 5-6 funds max, mostly indexes to show you that it's not brain surgery.
    If the CFPs do the above they will starve. Hence, there is no way to put clients' interests first
  • Relying On Stock Investments For Income After Retiring
    @PRESSmUP, relying on distribution for RMDs may be possible early on, but would be impossible later on. Here are the required RMD % (of the yearend balances) at selected ages:
    72 3.65%
    80 4.95%
    85 6.25%
    90 8.20%
    95 11.23%
    100 15.63%
    Now, the IRS humor zone
    110 28.57%
    120 50.00%
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    RSIIX was +0.15% yesterday if my quote services are correct.
    I never got an answer for my perhaps impolite question asking why RSIIX was not able to protect investors better during March 2020. Not that I am anticipating another pandemic but I always like to understand what happened. Other than that one incident, I think it is a good fund.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold two smaller individual stock holdings (2.5% each) - both rolling dice. Leaves just 5% of portfolio in individual stocks - that’s one stock I like a lot. Steady Eddy from all I can tell. Market’s making me jittery. No place to hide. Metals have gotten taken apart this week. (GDX must be off close to 6% yesterday and today alone) Bonds too.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    The effect on duration is also different (higher coupon = shorter duration).
    We can try this another way, using the Socratic method.
    1. Suppose you buy a bond at $102 with a 5% coupon. Do you have enough information to calculate current yield? See Fido Current Yield definition. If you have enough info, what is that yield (rounding is fine here, this isn't an arithmetic quiz)? If not, what other information do you need?
    2. Suppose further that the bond has an annual coupon (most bonds pay semiannually). Also suppose that the bond is callable in a year (right after making a coupon payment). How much money do you receive after a year: coupon + redemption? What is its YTW?
    3. Suppose the bond is not callable, but matures in a year. How much money do you receive after a year: coupon + redemption? What is its YTM? Is this the same or different from the answer in #2? If it is different, why is it different? Is it the same or different from the answer in #1?
    "Mr. WABAC, what do you think you're doing in this class?"
    "Flunking sir."
    "And what do you intend to do about it?"
    "Buy some tooth paste and pay my utility bills sir."
    "Be on your way."
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    The effect on duration is also different (higher coupon = shorter duration).
    We can try this another way, using the Socratic method.
    1. Suppose you buy a bond at $102 with a 5% coupon. Do you have enough information to calculate current yield? See Fido Current Yield definition. If you have enough info, what is that yield (rounding is fine here, this isn't an arithmetic quiz)? If not, what other information do you need?
    2. Suppose further that the bond has an annual coupon (most bonds pay semiannually). Also suppose that the bond is callable in a year (right after making a coupon payment). How much money do you receive after a year: coupon + redemption? What is its YTW?
    3. Suppose the bond is not callable, but matures in a year. How much money do you receive after a year: coupon + redemption? What is its YTM? Is this the same or different from the answer in #2? If it is different, why is it different? Is it the same or different from the answer in #1?
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    That is a premium bond, so YTM, YTW would be lower.
    https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/ba-8.75-15-sep-2031-scoreboard
    @yogibearbull,
    By this time in the interest rate cycle, hopefully, it is second nature for everyone here to know that. I was asking why the Current Yield (i.e., interest amount over market price) is [so much] higher than YTW when the bond can not be called.
    ******
    Fido Current Yield definition - "the ratio of the annual dollar amount of interest paid on a security to the purchase price or market price of the security, stated as a percentage. For example, a $1,000 bond purchased at par with a 3 percent coupon pays $30 per year, or a current yield of 3 percent. The same bond, if purchased at a discount price of $800, would have a current yield of 3.75 percent. A $1,000 bond purchased at a premium price of $1,200 would have a current yield of 2.50 percent."
    ******
    Based on that definition, I expected Current Yield and YTW to be similar when the bond can not be called.
    On a page different from the page where Current Yield was quoted, Fidelity shows "Current Rate Effective Date 10/07/1991", which is about a month after the original issue date. If the Current Yield is being calculated as of 10/07/1991, then it makes sense it is so high relative to current YTW / YTM. Not sure why it is important for us to know what the yield was as of 10/07/91 but I am not going to worry about it.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    @BaluBalu - To expand a bit on Yogi's answer above, Schwab shows the price to buy that Boeing bond as 121.14. Since you would be paying 21% more than the face value (100) for that bond, your return rate of 5.346% would be much less than the original coupon rate of 8.75%.
    The interest rate return on older bonds sold on the secondary (resell) market will tend to approximate interest rates on currently issued bonds at par 100.
    If the original bond paid, say 2.5%, then on the secondary market it would have to pay a lot more than that right now or nobody would want it. To get an interest rate approximating newly issued bonds the seller would have to give you a significant discount. This is the exact opposite situation to the Boeing bond that you wondered about.
    The same general mechanism is found on CDs and Treasuries being offered on the secondary markets. At times I've bought discounted CD offerings, for a number of reasons... perhaps I couldn't find what I wanted in new current issues.
    Why could that be? Well, perhaps I wasn't thrilled about the CD issuers at a particular point in time... maybe just a bunch or "who knows?" banks in "who knows where". Or perhaps I couldn't find newly issued CDs with the maturity that I wanted. So I might look for an older CD on the secondary market from a major bank whose operating situation is easy to verify.
  • Estimated taxes
    My tax liability fluctuates significantly from year to year. Every other year I minimize ordinary income (e.g. limit Roth conversions, use tax-free MMFs) so that I can harvest cap gains at 0% tax rate. In the off years, I minimize cap gains and increase ordinary income (e.g. increase Roth conversion amounts).
    MAGI may be similar from year to year but taxes are very different.
    If some cap gains are taxed at 0% and some at 15%, then every dollar added to ordinary income moves a 0% cap gains dollar into the 15% bracket. So that extra dollar of ordinary income effectively gets taxed at 22% (ordinary rate) + 15% (cap gains rate).
    Similar idea to bunching deductions. Maximize deductions in a year when you're itemizing, and minimize deductions in a year when you're taking a standard deduction.
  • Estimated taxes
    I am in same boat, but don't want to have to pay taxes until I have to, ie 4/15. I paid last years amount.
    You can also mail them a check if it is postmarked today. However, the amount of penalty for missing a day or two of the deadline is pretty minimal.
    EFTPS works but for some reason I had to reset my pw