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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    @BaluBalu, rolling 4-wk returns would end on Fridays, or if rolling 20-days, the ending would be any day of the week. But typical monthend is 28/29 or 30 or 31. So, there would be slight differences in 4-wk and monthly returns near the monthends. At other times, one shouldn't be comparing them.
    At Morningstar, I see data for Day-end, Month-end, Quarter-end. It is probably using 5-day week, 30-day month and 90-day quarter to provide 1-wk, 1-mo, 3-mo data in the Day-end view. It uses calendar Month-end and Quarter-end in those views.
    StockCharts has a parameter ROC(12) that is rolling-return over 12 days. I set it to 20 to simulate rolling 4-wks/20-days.
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    Professional traders (and athletes) consult with psychologists to function at a higher level. So, it is not a bad idea for retail investors as well. One has to evaluate ROI on such an investment.
    At the end of the day, you have to execute on knowledge (about yourself) however you obtain it. IMO, only 5% of success depends on knowledge and the rest depends on execution.
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    Maybe 2008 and 2020 shellacked me into “Scared Straight” attitude that made me fearful of taking risks.
    When markets are hot, I realize that markets generally go up, so best to stay fully invested. When markets start going down I think why didn’t I buy protection. Even when I am following disciplined strategy I can’t fully commit. For example, on day in 2020 I was watching VIX explode above 50 and bought double SPY and sold few hours later when VIX fell. Easy 9% for that trade, but not enough funds risked. “Most of the hedge funds on opposite side of my trade must be smarter than me”.
  • AI is Coming For Your Fund Manager
    AI comes in different versions, say #1 to #5 with 5 being the highest. For investing & driving I'd take a #5. I have a #2 & 1/2 in my Subie & didn't get what I paid for in my estimation.
    Good luck with your AI, Derf
  • cgbl
    I have never seen a Fidelity fund that was NTF at Schwab. In fact, FBALX and FPURX have a $74.95 TF.
    FWIW, CGBL is one of my larger holdings, pretty much since its inception. Also own CGDV. I like the Capital funds.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    @BaluBalu
    Is there a typo in the sentence before the sentence in bold?
    A few of the associated words please. Thank you.
    Is there confusion about the weekly changes and then the total YTD, which would include the current week???
    .....For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes.....= change for the week/YTD is what the letters indicate. For the week and YTD all have a percentage symbol. I can't improve upon this.
    As to the etf, PFF. There was a Monday distribution which caused a price drop of .82% on that day. There may have been other actions with the holdings for the entire week that affected the week ending change of -.71%. The etf is indicated to have 3 equity positions and 440 of mostly corp. bonds accounting for 86% of the portfolio. Rated bonds of the BB flavor at 57.4% and BBB flavor at 28.5%.
    Only a few more weeks and this will not be of concern.
  • Maturing CDs
    ... I also moved a large percentage of my "taxable" Schwab account, in 2023, to CDs in a local Bank account--those Bank Account CDs can be sold before maturity, with a less "painful" early redemption fee. Also, with all of my Schwab brokerage accounts (taxable and IRA), I maintain MM accounts for liquidity purposes, such as RMD selling obligations each year.
    When choosing between a 1 year CD and say, an 18 month CD in a taxable account, it may be worth keeping in mind that the 1 year CD (or any shorter one) might not be taxed until its maturity date. Interest is taxable as credited, which is why getting a CD that pays its interest at maturity makes the interest tax-deferred. The downside is that you don't get monthly interest payments if you need the cash flow.
    https://www.seattlebank.com/about/updates/updates-detail.html?cId=84542
    If you don't need the cash (possibly not the situation here), you don't need to liquidate IRA holdings to take RMDs. They can be taken in-kind. If the market is up this can be advantageous as you need to distribute (withdraw) fewer shares to meet your RMD requirements. And if the market is down and if you've kept some liquid holdings in the IRA, you can use those for the RMDs instead.
    No matter how you take the RMD distribution you owe taxes on the value of the distribution. Unless you use the distribution to make direct qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) to qualified nonprofit/charitable organizations.
  • Maturing CDs
    Two excerpts from this week’s Barron’s that may relate …
    (Excerpt #1) Randall Forsyth comments on scheduled Dec. 18/19 FOMC Meeting …
    ”Given the largely as-expected jobs report, the federal-funds futures market put an overwhelming 85.1% probability the Federal Open Market Committee would lower its key policy rate by 25 basis points from the current target range of 4.5% to 4.75% at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Dec. 18, according to the CME FedWatch site … That pretty much assumes that the next key data release, November’s consumer price index, doesn’t surprise to the upside.”
    ”Jobs Data Should Cement a Rate Cut. What’s Uncertain Is Everything Else.”
    Author: Randall Forsyth
    (Excerpt #2) Provocative reader comment on article ”Inflation Isn’t Dead Yet. How to Protect Your Retirement Income”. I’ve quoted the comment in full, but have omitted name. I’m not expert enough on bonds to have an opinion, but thought this might prompt some informed discussion.
    ”After inflation bonds at current prices pay almost nothing, and junk bonds aren't much better. Bonds have zero protection against inflation. If you want TIPS (or any bonds) buy them on your own, not in a fund. That way you get paid in full at maturity and don't have to worry about price changes (drops from interest rate increases) before maturity. And don't pay off your mortgage; the Fed and Congress will continue to pay off 3 % of your balance every year, and will probably do a lot better for you. And with inflation supposedly nearing 2 % that is after drops in oil prices. Between Middle East problems, the topping of the Permian, green policy fantasies, and lots else, oil will almost certainly be going up and inflation with it.”
    Both excerpts from Barron’s / December 9, 2024
  • Maturing CDs
    Just for clarification, I fully understand the illiquidity issues of CDs, especially when bought through a brokerage like Schwab. To cope with that illiquidity, I set up a short duration ladder at Schwab for the brokerage CDs--that is why I have 1/3 of my CDs maturing now, and the remaining 2/3 of my CDs maturing at several times throughout 2025. I also moved a large percentage of my "taxable" Schwab account, in 2023, to CDs in a local Bank account--those Bank Account CDs can be sold before maturity, with a less "painful" early redemption fee. Also, with all of my Schwab brokerage accounts (taxable and IRA), I maintain MM accounts for liquidity purposes, such as RMD selling obligations each year. I am required by IRS to liquidate over $50,000 per year, which leads me to pay taxes, while putting those RMD redemptions into my taxable brokerage account and high yield local Bank accounts. When CDs mature, I have to reassess my reinvestment options, but I do maintain a "preservation of asset" approach, collecting dividends each year to offset my redemptions.
  • The December 2024 issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has been posted.
    MFOP update to include price-based stats (PB-TICKER) is great, @Charles. Here are some data for 2 funds that are cousins - OEF PIMIX, CEF PDI.

    Name, SD, MAXDD/Date, Sharpe Ratio, MFO Risk
    PIMIX, 5.2%, -10.8% / 09/2022, 1.07, 2
    PDI, 9.7%, -24.1% / 03/2020, 0.97, 3 (NAV based stats)
    PB-PDI, 14.8%, -31.9% / 03/2020, 0.61, 4 (Price-based stats)
    Price impacts are what CEF holders experience. Fund managers worry about NAVs only.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    When iShares released SMAX Large Cap Max Buffer Sep ETF on Oct 1, 2024 the max cap was only 7.4% instead of 10.6% on July 1, 2024 Max Buffer ETF MAXJ.
    The VIX was in 12.5 range July 1, but had gone up to 19 range in October, so I suspect that correlation explains the lower cap on SMAX. If VIX stays under 13 on Dec 31, I expect the Jan 2025 ETF will a have cap in 9+ range. If so, that ETF IMO will be a better option than any bond fund.
  • Maturing CDs
    Good point, Old Joe, that's why I am putting some of the proceeds of any maturing CDs into bond OEFs like CBLDX, DHEAX, ICMUX and RCTIX.
    I am also putting money into two low risk market neutral funds like QQMNX (SD=7.2%) and JMNAX (SD=4.4%), and HELO, a hedged equity fund.
    So far, so good. If not, I'll just pull the trigger. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
    But, good luck.
    HELO states that it hedges, but only has 0.25% in SPY put options. Is that much of a hedge?
  • The December 2024 issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has been posted.
    Thank you for all your effort. We looking forward to the great articles. Happy holidays.
    Edits: another month of outstanding articles. It is time to review our portfolio going into 2025.
  • cgbl
    @Crash and @Old_Joe
    ABALX has a front load of 5.75%. For American Funds, does this indicate that this share class is for use only with an advisor?
    Fidelity doesn't waive the front-end load for ABALX.
    Fido does offer BALFX sans load with an expense ratio of 0.62% compared to 0.57% for ABALX.
    The same situation exists at Schwab.
    Class A fund shares are sometimes available load-waived at various brokerages.
  • cgbl
    @Crash and @Old_Joe
    ABALX has a front load of 5.75%. For American Funds, does this indicate that this share class is for use only with an advisor?
    Hello.
    i really don't know the answer to that. perhaps that's why that note appeared at schwab regarding availability.
  • cgbl
    @Crash and @Old_Joe
    ABALX has a front load of 5.75%. For American Funds, does this indicate that this share class is for use only with an advisor?
  • The December 2024 issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has been posted.
    The December 2024 issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has been posted.
    Dear friends,
    Welcome to the Remembrance Day / Start of Winter / Invite a Viking to Christmas / December issue of Mutual Fund Observer https://mutualfundobserver.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a779898c08f5883a95650fcbf&id=3ed3901189&e=c40301c47d.
    Financial markets are, in a technical sense, structurally chaotic. Beyond that structural chaos, there’s a prospect of political chaos that plays out over the weeks and months ahead. Chaos is not good for your portfolios or your sanity. Lynn Bolin and I, separately but with knowledge of what each was doing, have offered advice on crafting “a chaos-protected portfolio” (Lynn) and “a chaos-resistant portfolio” (me). Our recs are different but, we think, complementary.
    Lynn also offers up advice for investing in 2025. He identifies key challenges for investors in the coming years:
    1. High stock valuations and interest rates
    2. Slow economic growth
    3. Risk of another secular bear market
    4. Sticky inflation
    5. Increasing national debt and budget deficits
    His analysis is somewhat at odds with the good folks at Kiplinger’s, who start with the assumption of six or seven interest rate cuts. Lynn’s prudent recs: anticipate lower long-term returns, trust active investment management during potential secular bear markets, and maybe ease back on equities if you’re of a certain age.
    John Rekenthaler retired from Morningstar in mid-November. He and the other founders of Morningstar have helped guide a nearly unimaginable evolution of the power of individual investors, from a world where fund companies did not even deign to disclose the names of the people managing their funds to one where, for better and worse, investors have nearly unlimited choice and unlimited information. I wrote a short reflection on JR’s career and contributions.
    Our colleague Charles offers useful new capabilities at MFO Premium (for the inflation-resistant price of $120, virtually unchanged in its decade of operation).
    The Shadow keeps it real and keeps us grounded by reviewing the industry’s news, innovations, and twists in “Briefly Noted.”
    And we haven’t forgotten fans of the long-scroll version (hi, Roger!): it’s here https://mutualfundobserver.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a779898c08f5883a95650fcbf&id=8dedbfe7a2&e=c40301c47d!
    (This post was copied from a recently received email.)
  • There's gold in them thar hills?

    The article is full of "mights" and "coulds". Everything is conditional in the article.
    Further 1100 tons is 32,000 ounces. Extended by $2,500 (roughly the current price), that is $88 billion. -- And those 32,000 oz are not coming to market tomorrow, but over many, many years... once the mine is opened.
    Govts are running multi-trillion deficits every year.
    All of the "maybe ounces" altogether are about 0.5% of the cumulative gold mined in history -- most of which is still sitting in vaults around the world.
    The "maybe mine" in China is a drop in the ocean of govt debt.
  • Morningstar not working?
    Thanks @Mark. I love M/W’s quote pages which ISTM are running Lipper. This year I was getting blocked out a lot and stopped using them. I thought that with my $45 subscription to Reuters (mentioned elsewhere) I’d gain access to Lipper - but apparently not.
    M* is back up! (Must have jarred them awake. :) )
    LCORX YTD +12.72% / 3 months +4.84% / 1 month +.84% / 1 week - .53%.
    No significance to shorter term numbers. Just wondered how it was doing since I sold couple months ago.
  • Maturing CDs
    OP:
    If you are OK with illiquidity (which is typically the case with CDs), than an alternative might be MYGAs. As of 12/7, MYGA rates for my state (TX) were on offer from A-rated insurance companies, as high as:
    2 year 5.2%
    4 year: 5.2%
    6 year 5.4%
    Live quotes are available at 'stantheannuityman.com'
    No FDIC insurance on these, but, the A-rating may provide some comfort. And the insurance industry is heavily regulated generally. Interest earned in non-qualified accounts is deferred from taxes until withdrawn.
    I don't own any annuities (other than Soc Security). Simply pointing out one possible option. Thx