AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/24/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.3%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.1%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (34.8%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +13.2% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed/FOMC, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (100+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (15+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Other Sentiments have been slipping too since mid-December. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1328/thread

I should have listened - any interaction with TRP is fraught with peril, even moving assets into TRP.
I was just rearranging accounts, and it seemed to make sense to consolidate my TRP fund shares there to keep free M* access. At least until M* retail customer features finish self-destructing. I would be transferring shares of a TRP fund I didn't already hold at TRP. Also a small amount of cash.
1. First attempt: move fund shares in kind into the mutual fund (not brokerage) side.
a. TRP won't let you create a new fund position via a transfer. So I did a small exchange within TRP to create a position into which to transfer the shares.
b. I filled out the fund transfer form with full fund account number including the hyphen and digit at the end. TRP accepted this form as correct.
c. TRP filled in its part of the transfer form but excluded the hyphen and digit from the account number in its section.
d. Transfer was rejected (after many days) because account numbers didn't match.
TRP subsequently told me that the hyphen and digit are not part of the account numbers. It was my fault for including them.
2. Second attempt: open TRP brokerage account and do an ACAT transfer.
a. This took a couple of weeks but shares were now on brokerage side.
b. TRP told me that the TRP fund position would be moved automatically over to fund side where I could exchange funds.
c. Transfer was not automatic, I could not move shares online, I could not exchange shares.
d. Phone call, manual intervention, shares finally moved to fund side.
3. Third attempt: use small amount of cash in outside brokerage to buy more shares of existing TRP fund position at TRP.
a. TRP told me to use mutual fund transfer form and write "CASH" for the fund being transferred.
b. TRP forwarded form to outside brokerage indicating that check was to be mailed to TRP.
c. Three weeks after submitting form to TRP, and two weeks after outside brokerage had mailed a check, nothing. TRP said I should wait longer - after all, there were weekends and holidays during those two weeks. Give it another three business days.
d. Check was still "in the mail". TRP said there was nothing it could do. I would have to contract the brokerage to have it reissue the check that TRP, not I, requested from them. I had TRP do a three way call.
e. Current ETA is another three weeks - a couple of days to stop payment, get the money back in the account, reissue check. After that, another 10-12 business days according to TRP. The outside brokerage said they could not send the money by ACH or wire or ACAT because all they could do was resend the check as originally requested.
6-7 weeks to transfer cash! TRP even suggested that the mail between Florida and Baltimore was slow. I guess there's a lot of traffic on I-95.

Ya, when I hear that junk, I just wish I owned weaponized drones to send their way. That is SO LAME.

I'm trying to get past the part where you filled out a paper form in section one.

LOL
And @msf, traffic here between DC and Baltimore on I-95 really does suck during the workweek.....

The account numbers look like: 0123456789-4. Except that the "-4" in this example is not considered part of the account number.
Here's the mutual fund transfer in kind form I used (see section 1 asking for account numbers). T Rowe Price adds another page when it requests the transfer from an outside brokerage. On that form, T. Rowe Price fills in 0123456789 only.
https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/iinvestor/Forms/TransferInKindFormJuly2006.pdf

I should have listened - any interaction with TRP is fraught with peril, even moving assets into TRP.
I was just rearranging accounts, and it seemed to make sense to consolidate my TRP fund shares there to keep free M* access. At least until M* retail customer features finish self-destructing. I would be transferring shares of a TRP fund I didn't already hold at TRP. Also a small amount of cash.
1. First attempt: move fund shares in kind into the mutual fund (not brokerage) side.
a. TRP won't let you create a new fund position via a transfer. So I did a small exchange within TRP to create a position into which to transfer the shares.
b. I filled out the fund transfer form with full fund account number including the hyphen and digit at the end. TRP accepted this form as correct.
c. TRP filled in its part of the transfer form but excluded the hyphen and digit from the account number in its section.
d. Transfer was rejected (after many days) because account numbers didn't match.
TRP subsequently told me that the hyphen and digit are not part of the account numbers. It was my fault for including them.
2. Second attempt: open TRP brokerage account and do an ACAT transfer.
a. This took a couple of weeks but shares were now on brokerage side.
b. TRP told me that the TRP fund position would be moved automatically over to fund side where I could exchange funds.
c. Transfer was not automatic, I could not move shares online, I could not exchange shares.
d. Phone call, manual intervention, shares finally moved to fund side.
3. Third attempt: use small amount of cash in outside brokerage to buy more shares of existing TRP fund position at TRP.
a. TRP told me to use mutual fund transfer form and write "CASH" for the fund being transferred.
b. TRP forwarded form to outside brokerage indicating that check was to be mailed to TRP.
c. Three weeks after submitting form to TRP, and two weeks after outside brokerage had mailed a check, nothing. TRP said I should wait longer - after all, there were weekends and holidays during those two weeks. Give it another three business days.
d. Check was still "in the mail". TRP said there was nothing it could do. I would have to contract the brokerage to have it reissue the check that TRP, not I, requested from them. I had TRP do a three way call.
e. Current ETA is another three weeks - a couple of days to stop payment, get the money back in the account, reissue check. After that, another 10-12 business days according to TRP. The outside brokerage said they could not send the money by ACH or wire or ACAT because all they could do was resend the check as originally requested.
6-7 weeks to transfer cash! TRP even suggested that the mail between Florida and Baltimore was slow. I guess there's a lot of traffic on I-95.

Yes, I knew of this incident, but it occurred on a 757, which has been in service for a very long time with no major issues that I'm aware of. That suggests that it's highly likely to be a Delta maintenance issue, and I don't want to be piling on Boeing ... they have more than enough of their own problems right now.

The commentary is great and essential, I try to keep it "simpler".
2022 was one of the worst for bonds. MM+RPHIX were great. Then the Fed first blink was 11/2022. From that point, you should start looking to make more money.
You have 3 great choices (funds)...from lowest risk/SD to highest...RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX. Their distributions match the above RPHIX has the lowest and RSIIX = highest.
I'm not in the prediction business but there is a good chance that in 2024 RPHIX will make 5+%...CBLDX 8+%...RSIIX 9+% and that is just the distributions. CBLDX would be an easy choice to make.
I invest only in bond OEFs and why I never invested directly in indexes, treasuries, or no flexible funds, think VG.
This is exactly what I'm looking for, which is great performance with much lower risk/SD.
Disclaimer: I don't own any of the funds above...at this moment.

@hank
Eric Cinammond ( PVCMX) calls it "the art of looking stupid" . This is a good read.
( BTW PVCMX was ahead of SP500 last three years until October with lot smoother ride!
https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/the-art-of-looking-stupid
"In our opinion, current equity valuations do not justify aggressive positioning. However, as we witnessed in Q4 2023, valuations alone have not deterred investors from chasing asset prices higher during the current market cycle. With small caps soaring into the end of the year, we're sure our patient positioning didn’t look very bright. But this isn’t new for us. Patient positioning almost always looks unintelligent during periods of sharply rising asset prices. And while we can’t predict the future, we expect we’ll continue to experience periods of looking stupid, and maybe even smart, but rarely will our paths look the same."
I would think the worst thing to do is to be forced to go 109% in equities because your staff ( or investors) don't like bonds.
Individual investors do not suffer from GMO's career risk where they can be fired for underperformance, unless your partner pays much more attention to the bottom line than mine does.
We just have to answer to ourselves and be able to sleep at night

Up until 2017, TEI would have been well ahead of all the top OEFs. However it has faltered since then. Approx 15% leveraged; yield > 11%.
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/TEI

IMO, the only way to avoid a crash is to sell to MM and buy back after that. Yes, it is timing. Most can't do it so just own several funds up to 6-7, using indexes and good managed funds(PRWCX), according to your goals and risk, and hardly trade.
See (link).

@Derf - I ‘ll go with Ernie Harwell who used to say …
”It ain’t over til the fat lady sings.”
I’ll note gold appears to be rising from the dead this morning. It’s been camatose at around $2,000 for week upon week. Miners have fared worse than the metal. So, even a 1.75% spike in GDX (miners index) premarket and a $10 jump price in the metal to above $2030 this morning,is encouraging.
My portfolio doesn’t have a ton of gold, but there’s enough exposure thru PRPFX and 1 CEF that it often exerts an outsized daily influence.
Good luck there!
Edit - I spoke too soon. Gold & miners turned negative shortly after market opened.

Hank, I'm not a typical trader. My trades are based on my system. In "normal" market I may hold a fund for weeks/months, in risky market a lot shorter. One day can be very meaningful.
When I discussed trading funds it was all about none Schwab/Fidelity funds.
Why not ETF? Because most ETFs for bond fund are generic. Can you find an ETF for PIMIX,RCTIX,SEMMX,CBLDX,RSIIX?
Another crucial difference, in volatile market ETF will lose a lot more money while OEFs don't which is another reason for me to get out before a crash.
Transfering money from Schwab to someone's bank can be quicker than the usual 2-3 days. You can write a check and deposit it in your bank account via your phone, I have done it many times and the money was available the next morning. Schwab supplies me with free checks.
From memory, Schwab is a real bank while Fidelity isn't.
But the biggest advantage I get at Schwab is when they waive the $49.95 fees when I buy Institutional shares.

AT Fido, I would look at NTFs EEIAX and PELAX, both top notch bond houses.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/morningstar-rankings/mstarCategoryRank5Year/asc/1?assetClass=TBND&category=XP&mStarRating=3,4,5&ntf=Y&order=assetClass,category,ntf,mStarRating

I have found inverse funds helpful for taxable accounts when selling would trigger large gains, and to damp down volatility when things go really south. Of course when they go wat up ( 2008 and 2020), I can never sell them at the top so it usually is a round trip.
I am rereading Taleb's Black Swan and "Fooled by Randomness" both highly recommended. A recent book "Chaos Kings" details how Taleb and other guys make money during crashes, usually with deep out of the money puts, I guess. Some of the ideas mentioned in the book pay off huge profits if the drops are severe enough.
The author of Chaos Kings says "finally there is a similar product for retail investors " and says it is SPD an ETF from Simplicity designed to capture downside convexity.
When I checked, SPD lost 19% in 2022, presumably because of the decline in the treasury collaterals. They also have another hedged ETF CYA ( what a sense of humor!) that is hard to figure as it lost 50% in a three day period in October ( early in the week).
I was going to talk to them about this stuff when I get a minute. Simplicity is a pretty sharp group of option guys whose specialty is custom ETFs with complex strategies.
Another idea I haven't used but maybe someone else has are the new "buffered" ETFs.
Now interest rates are back up it is simpler and probably more profitable to use short term treasuries

@davidsherman, Thanks.
Everyone, The commentary on fund management starts on page 5 of the pdf.

YTD:
My long-long-term portfolio is -0.14.
My long-term portfolio is + 1.15 (mostly income-generating stocks)
403(b) is +1.17 (all in RWMGX, so using that YTD since TIAA's not updated YTD data yet!?)
Roth IRA balance is +4% in an American Funds G&I portfolio
Not complaining - I am planning for muted returns this year anyway, but the income on DRIP everywhere is quite nice.
Still mostly equity-based, btw.

My wife's retirement, my retirement and our non retirement accounts are all down about the same 0.5%
No NVDA

Clearly it's important to know the precise definition of terms when reading statistics. Even back when M* was using 1 year maturities as the cutoff for cash equivalents for analyzing portfolios (i.e. before 2017), it also used the 3 month definition in other contexts. Here's an excerpt from a 2014 M* glossary:

Generally, only investments with original maturities of three months or less qualify under this definition. Original maturity means original maturity to the entity holding the investment. For example, both a three-month US Treasury bill and a three year Treasury note purchased three months from maturity qualify as cash equivalents. However, a Treasury note purchased three years ago does not become a cash equivalent when its remaining maturity is three months

https://morningstardirect.morningstar.com/clientcomm/DataDefinitions-EquityandExecutive_201408.pdf
This restriction of cash equivalents to securities with original (time of purchase) maturities of three months is lifted straight from the official definition of cash equivalents as given by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Accounting Standards Codification® (ASC) 230-10-20. That's what reporting entities, like mutual funds, corporations, etc. use:

Cash equivalents are short-term, highly liquid investments that have both of the following characteristics:

a. Readily convertible to known amounts of cash
b. So near their maturity that they present insignificant risk of changes in value because of changes in interest rates.

Generally, only investments with original maturities of three months or less qualify under that definition. Original maturity means original maturity to the entity holding the investment. For example, both a three-month U.S. Treasury bill and a three-year U.S. Treasury note purchased three months from maturity qualify as cash equivalents. However, a Treasury note purchased three years ago does not become a cash equivalent when its remaining maturity is three months

ASC 230 July 2023
For completeness and wonks: FASB defines GAAP.

The FASB Accounting Standards Codification® is the source of authoritative generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) recognized by the FASB to be applied by nongovernmental entities.

FASB cash flow update
Personally, I consider Treasuries and CDs with just weeks until they mature to be equivalent to cash regardless of when I acquired them. I consider no penalty CDs to be cash regardless of maturity length.
Suppose I have a 2 year T-note that I acquired at auction and it has 6 weeks until maturity. GAAP says that's not a cash equivalent. But if you and I swap the same T-notes, then they become cash equivalents because we just acquired them. I'm sure the accountants know what they're doing, but by my kitchen-table bookkeeping those two T-notes are the same.

From RiverPark Annual Report, 9/30/23, pg 44,
"Cash and Cash Equivalents — Cash equivalents include short-term, highly liquid investments with a maturity date at time of purchase of three months or less."
Note my underlined "at time of purchase".
Under Management's Discussion for RPHIX, pg 5, "As of September 30, 2023, 59% of the Fund’s invested portfolio is expected to mature or be repaid within 90 days,..."
This is why M* data on Cash & Cash Equivalents differ significantly from that reported by the fund because M* doesn't use the proviso "at time of purchase". Its 92 days or less maturity applies to all securities at the time of the snapshot, whatever they are called or whenever they were purchased.
https://www.riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/resources/rp_fund_trust/annual_report/RiverPark_AnnualReport.pdf

I retain an old school perspective that my parents -- who were products of the great depression and dust bowl -- taught me.

Ditto. Parents were in their “formative” years during the Depression. Stocks were a dirty word. I gifted them a money market fund in the 70s once into which I’d deposited $500. MM funds paid double-digest interest then. But they didn’t trust it and moved the $$ to the local bank they could actually see driving by every day. :)