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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BOXX ETF
    I did some math for my state Massachusetts, which taxes income and LT Cap Gains at 5% but ST cap Gains at 12% !!!
    If you hold BOXX for over a year there is a small benefit; you pay 15% plus 5% vs 22or 24% etc ( depending on income)
    IF you sell before a year, you get hosed, as pay both ST federal tax and ST State tax.
    This would only make sense if you plan to hold them for at least a year.
    The % differences even so are small unless you are in a very high bracket
  • Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more ... a third try at moving servers
    Welcome back!
    As far as we can tell, the MySQL software we use (v 5.5) is so old that it crashes things every time it's touched. And, for reasons yet unexplained, our web host did not learn from Crash #1 or near-Crash #2 (hi, Crash!) and so didn't look to see if the site was back and live after last night's adventure.
    Thanks to all who reached out, and to the many good folks who waited more-or-less patiently for us.
    With luck, nothing happens now until after Eric updates all of the software on the offline version of the site and we hit the switch to redirect incoming traffic from the server with the old version of the site to the server with the new.
    And really, what could possibly go wrong?
  • Question for Girouxheads out there
    My most successful mutual fund is FCNTX, which I’ve owned about 25 years. I have sold portions over the years because it had grown so much that I was afraid it getting too large. Plus, I used to follow M* religiously, and they rarely have anything good to say about Fidelity funds except to da,n them with faint praise. It’s still one of my largest holdings and continues to amaze me. I don’t worry about its holdings because Danoff seems to find value in every market. Similar results from FBALX, another fund that gets no respect from M*.
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    Last call for posters to report your Mag 7 allocations.
    After which, I hope to discuss those with the posters who were kind enough to share.
    And, as an FYI, anyone interested in adding Mag 7 exposure to your port:
    ETF: MAGS, all Mag 7, all the time! Or, as Jolt Cola used to advertise, "All the taste and twice the sugar!" or something like that!
    OEF: VIGAX is the fund I've found (so far) with the highest (last I checked) Mag 7 allocation at ~51.2%
  • Worthy AI Article
    Great story @Anna. And we trust you are anything but obsolete!
    If I may add one on devices...
    Circa Spring 1977, Senior Year UG finals. Of all the challenging accounting major courses I took, there was nothing that compared to Business Statistics. The subject was SO difficult that we were always allowed Open Book Policy while taking exams, including the Final.
    Factorials were the dastardly element that NOBODY seemed to be able to get their heads around, and I went to a great accounting school that produced some incredible talent. Even with our books wide open, we'd spend excessive amounts of time trying to calc factorials.
    But lucky me. For Xmas 1976, my beloved got me a crazy new device, a Texas Instrument hand-held calculator. Say what? What does it even do?
    I lugged it around for a few months without really using it, its newness, my skepticism and all. But lucky for me, it had a factorial button that I discovered right in the middle of that Business Statistics final LOADED with factorial calculations!
    "Do I use it? Doesn't seem fair," I thought.
    But then I thought, "Will I ever use or even know what a factorial is after I leave this classroom?"
    I answered "No" to that question, and Cha-ching! Aced that puppy and NEVER once in my 35+-yr accounting career was the term factorial even spoken.
    Without looking, anyone know what one is?
  • BOXX ETF
    I took a brief look at this last night and have to read more about how the mechanism works, associated risks, etc.
    1. One man's tax dodge is another man's smart investing. In theory, ETFs don't have an advantage over mutual funds - the statute that makes cap gains disappear in a puff of smoke (via in-kind distributions) originally applied to corporations as well as mutual funds. Decades ago it was rewritten, maintaining the break for mutual funds while excluding corporations from this benefit.
    This all happened before ETFs existed. ETFs benefit because they just happen to be a form of mutual fund. In practice, ETFs have the advantage because they redeem shares in-kind, while OEFs rarely do so.
    That said, my personal feeling is that this dodge "provides an unfair tax subsidy for ETFs and encourages the transfer of capital from other kinds of investment vehicle to ETFs." This has got little to do with Washington scrounging up extra dollars - a fix could be revenue neutral. IMHO it's a matter of providing a level playing field.
    Jeffrey M Colon, The Great ETF Tax Swindle: The Taxation of In-Kind Redemptions, Penn State Law Review (2017)
    There are lots of loopholes begging for attention, such as carried interest. And one that seems to curry favor here - unrestricted Roth conversions - a way of getting around income restrictions intended to limit tax benefits that higher earners receive. As the saying goes, it all depends on whose ox is being gored.
    2. NYC is unusual in that it has both a high tax rate (combined NYS + NYC) and that rates go up pretty fast with income. This combination makes it quite possible for one to owe more taxes if the income is treated as cap gains (state/local taxable) than if it is treated as Treasury interest (ordinary tax, but only at federal level).
    For example, in 2023 a couple with taxable income of $90K would pay 22% on ordinary income and 15% on cap gains. That 7% savings by treating the Treasury interest as cap gains would be more than offset by an added NYS tax of 5.5% plus a NYC tax of 3.876%.
    Now this assumes that the taxpayer can't deduct the NY taxes due to SALT limits on deductions. That may change in 2026. In this particular example, even with a SALT deduction (worth 22% x 9.376% or about 2.06%), one would still pay more in net state and local taxes (7.3%) than one would save in fed taxes (7%). But it is close and one can easily conceive of other brackets where deductibility of SALT would make a difference.
    In California, look at a couple with taxable income of $110K. As with the $90K NY couple, they'd be paying 22% fed tax on ordinary income and 15% on cap gains - a 7% difference. At the state level, they'd be paying 0% on Treasury interest but 8% on cap gains. Same problem.
    This transmutation of Treasury interest into cap gains works very well for high earners - where the cap gains rate (even at 20%) is well below the fed rates of 35% or 37%. Of course it also works well for the hoi polloi in states with low or no local income taxes.
  • Berkshire Annual Letter on utilities
    @rforno, I thought options income was short-term CGs, not ROC. May be will double-check.
    I double-checked as well just to make sure my info was still current. Per Kiplinger:

    Option-income funds designate much of their distributions as a "return of capital," a phrase that suggests you're not getting a true dividend. But just as there is good cholesterol and bad cholesterol, there are good and bad returns of capital. Cash inflows from option sales are repeatable and sustainable. So, unless an options-based fund is mismanaged, it shouldn't suffer the long-term erosion of NAV that plagues CEFs that regularly liquidate assets to maintain high payouts.

    (src: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t052-c003-s001-option-income-cefs-may-be-a-smarter-choice.html0
  • Question for Girouxheads out there
    Not to pick on GS here but...
    Dateline: Oct 17, 2022
    Starship: Goldman Sachs
    Headline: The stock market is still too expensive even after its 25% decline, but there are bargains to be had in small caps, Goldman Sachs says
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-valuations-rich-small-caps-value-interest-rates-2022-10
    Since 10/17/22:
    FXAIX is UP 41.5%
    IWM is UP 18.5%
    I used to subscribe to IBD way back in the day when I traded individual stocks a bunch. I learned a LOT from that subscription, including the FACT that when individual stocks are making new highs, their P/E's are many times regarded as WAY TOO HIGH. (And, according to GS on 10/17/22, even after a 25% overall market decline, they were still too high!)
    Perhaps something that supports @Graust's suggestion to "Don't fight the market."
  • Berkshire Annual Letter on utilities
    For BUI, Yahoo Finance shows 7.39% fwd yield, M* shows 5-yr history of distributions with significant ROCs.
  • BOXX ETF
    Saw a blurb on BOXX it at X/Twitter too, LINK.
    It combines derivatives with in-kind trading features of the ETFs to avoid distributions. So, one buys it and then pays CGs only on sale. ER of 19.5 bps is OK. While remarkable, it looks lot of complicated work to achieve approximately the m-mkt returns.
    If the links are behind the paywall, BOXX prospectus describes the strategy - it cannot be a total black box to get the SEC approval.
    https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/compliance/etf/statutory_prospectus/BOXX_Prospectus.pdf
  • Schwab move...Let's retire this thread. Lots of interactions. Food for thought. THNX.

    How to search for funds
    p.s. I don't have a Schwab account
    Several brokerages, including Schwab, have made it harder (or impossible) to use their tools without an account. As @Low_Tech observed, "Schwab re-arranged their whole fund/ETF research section in late '22"
    The YouTube video referenced above says "To find these funds, I'll point to Research, then under Research Tools, select ETFs." You'll find the screen shot at the 0:40 mark in the video. The problem is that this isn't the screen that one sees without logging in. There is no "Research" drop down from the home page, or AFAIK any Schwab page one can navigate to without logging in. This is indeed a change from a year ago.
    At least one can still access the Schwab screener(s) without logging in:
    Schwab fund screener
    Schwab ETF screener
    From these pages you can also search for individual funds
    E*Trade does enable visitors to navigate to its fund screener:
    E*Trade fund screener
    There's a different page to research specific funds:
    E*Trade fund search box
    Vanguard third party fund list by family
    One can research a specific fund from the home page search box without logging in.
    I haven't found a fund screener at Vanguard (for non-VG funds) even after logging in.
    As Yogi observed, Fidelity lets you search for tickers from its home page search box. One can also navigate to its fund screener:
    Fidelity fund screener
    (use '>" at upper left to expand search critera and select "Include ETFs" for integrated fund/ETF search)
    T. Rowe Price, Merrill Edge, Firstrade, and TIAA all seem to require brokerage account logins (TRP fund login doesn't suffice) to search for and/or research funds.
  • "your account has been suspended" ... or not
    It just happened again Sunday, 25 February about 12:40pm (CST) when I tried to post comment on a thread.
  • Schwab move...Let's retire this thread. Lots of interactions. Food for thought. THNX.
    Schwab Full Platform Tutorial
    How to check your positions
    How to search for funds
    Charles Schwab Trading Platform Web Tutorial
    Want more? Try googling "how to find things on the Schwab brokerage website"
    p.s. I don't have a Schwab account.
    EDIT: so I don't know if any of the above links/video/etc. work or not. You're on your own from here
  • Worthy AI Article
    On Motley Fool and Palantir see also
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/24/will-hot-ticker-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2035/
    At the end of their discussion, MF said:
    The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Palantir Technologies wasn’t one of them.
  • Natural gas $1.63
    @Edmond
    At least one answer to that question is many of the chemical companies. Depending on their output, natural gas represents THE major input cost to create many of the chemicals which these companies produce/sell. Lower input costs mean fatter profit margins. The chemical industry is very cyclical/volatile. Probably the 'safe choice' here would be Dow Chemical which presently has divd yield just below5%. Value Line assesses Dow's financial strength as "A:".
    I have no opinion, nor any direct holding in any chemical company at the present time.
    FSCHX might be a consideration, though Dow is not part of its top 10 holdings.
  • Worthy AI Article
    Disclaimer: I am NOT promoting AI investing or any of these specific ETFs or stock. Just providing information for discussion while personally trying to identify AI opportunities.
    =========================
    Here are two pretty comprehensive Investopedia pages:
    Generative AI
    https://www.investopedia.com/generative-ai-7497939#toc-the-bottom-line
    How To Invest in AI
    https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-invest-in-ai-7504987
    Excerpt (Bold added):
    Best AI ETFs
    iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT): XT is a large capitalization fund that selects global stocks trying to disrupt their industries. The disruption also includes AI technology stocks, which make up nearly half of the fund. The other half of the fund invests in healthcare and industrial stocks, which are also actively looking at how AI might make an outsized difference in their more mature industries. This fund has an expense ratio of 0.46% and an annual dividend yield of 0.70%.
    Defiance Machine Learning & Quantum Computing ETF (QTUM): QTUM has only $112 million under management. The fund invests in companies looking to commercialize their research and development in quantum computing systems. Its benchmark is the BlueStar Quantum Computing and Machine Learning Index. This fund has an expense ratio of 0.40% and an annual dividend yield of 0.45%.
    ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF (ROBO): ROBO invests in companies focused on robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence and invests in both growth and value stocks. The fund’s expense ratio is 0.95%, and it has an annual dividend yield of 0.17%.

    ========================
    And also here's a Motley Fool article that looks at
    Excerpt (Bold added):
    Best AI ETFs to buy in 2024
    Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:BOTZ)
    ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (NYSEMKT:ROBO)
    iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (NYSEMKT:IRBO)
    First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:ROBT)

    https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/information-technology/ai-stocks/ai-etfs/
    ------------------------
    MF has also identified PLTR as
    A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stock to Buy Now and Hold Forever

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/23/a-once-in-a-generation-investment-opportunity-1-ar/
    I am clearly NOT a T/A guy, BUT I do mess around with them. PLTR's chart is an interesting one, with a parabolic rise at the beginning of Feb, which has partially been worked off since. May have just identified a candidate to consider for a play. That said, analysts are broadly DOWN on this pup!
  • Berkshire Annual Letter on utilities
    SF Chronicle: Pacific Gas and Electric Co. residential electricity rates rose by another 20% on Jan. 1. The rate increase added about $34.50 to monthly bills for typical households. That’s about $414 more per household for all of 2024 compared to last year.
    @Crash- I think that puts us as #! again. Yay!! We're #1 !!
    Of course we can always make Berkshire happy by a few more increases like that. I'm sure that they can use some extra cash to add to their pile that's already so big that they don't quite know what to do with it.
  • Question for Girouxheads out there
    I would say “don’t fight the market” and just invest in an S&P 500 ETF, first off….but yes I know the hesitancy of 20-30% being in 5-6 names. But it’s hard to beat the 500 for most funds. And you own more of what’s performing well (due to market cap weighting).
    Alternatives would be the quality ETFs like QLTY, JQUA, QUAL. They all own the big stocks, but diff weightings than SPY. Or, a new one I’ve found and am starting to build a position in: SPGP. It’s a GARP S&P 500 fund (Growth At Reasonable Price). Its highest weighting is in energy, then tech.
  • Worthy AI Article
    This link is directed to Nvidia from last August. I can't find a recent video from Bloomberg providing similar current information regarding cost and sell pricing. Yowee !!!
    Let this snippet sink in:
    Nvidia is raking in nearly 1,000% (about 823%) in profit percentage for each H100 GPU accelerator it sells, according to estimates made in a recent social media post from Barron's senior writer Tae Kim. In dollar terms, that means that Nvidia's street-price of around $25,000 to $30,000 for each of these High Performance Computing (HPC) accelerators (for the least-expensive PCIe version) more than covers the estimated $3,320 cost per chip and peripheral (in-board) components. As surfers will tell you, there's nothing quite like riding a wave with zero other boards on sight.
    Kim cites the $3,320 estimated cost for each H100 chip as coming from financial consulting firm Raymond James. It's unclear how deep that cost analysis goes, however: if it's a matter of pure manufacturing cost (averaging the price-per-wafer and other components while taking yields into account), then there's still a significant expense margin for Nvidia to cover with each of its sales.