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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    Bonds: 80% PIMIX, 20% individual bonds (T-Bills). (35% of overall portfolio)
  • Distributing money out of Inherited Estate DC / 403(b)
    Could you clarify the situation? It sounds like the defined contribution plans did not indicate a beneficiary, so by default the estate inherited the assets. Further it sounds like the assets are still in the DC plans, just owned by the estate of the deceased.
    If that's what has happened, you seem to be asking how long does the estate have to move the assets out of the DC plans?
    For a regular inherited retirement account the answer is pretty straightforward,
    Perhaps. Worth looking at, for background. If an IRA owner dies with no beneficiary named, the IRA is retitled as an estate IRA. One has 5 years, not 10, to move the money out of the IRA assuming that death occurred before RMDs were required to begin.
    Here's a page from Fidelity that illustrates the complexity even with IRAs:
    https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/inherited-ira-rmd
    Sections of interest:
    >Estate beneficiary: If the original depositor of an IRA names their estate as the beneficiary of their account, or did not leave beneficiaries on their IRA, the IRA funds may go to their estate.
    -and-
    Death on or after 1/1/20, [and asset recipient is an] estate entity, non-see-through trust beneficiary of the original depositor's IRA. [elsewhere this is called a nonperson beneficiary]:
    [Death before RMDs begin] Move inherited assets into an inherited IRA in the name of the estate or non-see through trust and withdraw the balance by December 31st of the year containing the 5th anniversary of the original depositor's death
    [Death after RMDs begin] Move inherited assets into an Inherited IRA in the name of the estate or non-see through trust and begin taking RMDs the year following the year of the original depositor death using their age in the year they passed away.
    Tax treatment of estate-owned DC plans should be no different.
    Inheriting a 403(b) Plan: What to Do & How It Works
    https://www.missionsq.org/products-and-services/403(b)-defined-contribution-plans/403(b)-inheritance-beneficiary.html
    A “nonperson beneficiary” is an estate, trust or charitable organization. This type of beneficiary has the following options:
    • Account owner dies before the required beginning date.... In that case, the account must be depleted by December 31 of the year that includes the 5th anniversary of the account owner’s death.
    • Account owner dies on or after required beginning date then the entity may use a life expectancy calculation based on the remaining life expectancy of the decedent.
    Ascensus concurs:
    The SECURE Act identifies three groups of beneficiaries: eligible designated beneficiaries, noneligible designated beneficiaries, and nonperson beneficiaries.
    ...
    The third group of beneficiaries consists of nonperson beneficiaries (i.e., entities, such as trusts, estates, or charities). Nonperson beneficiaries of account owners who died before their required beginning date (RBD), which is the deadline to begin RMDs, remain subject to the 5-year rule and—with the exception of certain see-through trusts—must distribute the inherited assets within five years.
    https://thelink.ascensus.com/articles/2024/2/14/understanding-the-10-year-rule
    That's all from the tax perspective. From the estate administration perspective (state law), I'm not convinced that even in the "simple" case of an estate IRA one is allowed to delay five years. My understanding is that the executor (or administrator) is allowed however much time is necessary to distribute estate assets, but not more. For example:
    N.J.S.A. 3B:10-23 holds that an executor “is under a duty to settle and distribute the estate of the decedent in accordance with the terms of [the will] and applicable law, and as expeditiously and efficiently as is consistent with the best interests of the estate.…”
    https://www.natlawreview.com/article/executor-won-t-distribute-estate-what-can-i-do
    Usual disclaimer: I am not a lawyer, this is not legal advice. It is just general information that may not apply to your situation.
  • Bottom Line article: Microcap funds
    @David_Snowball
    Thank you for the insights.
    Any thoughts on PRCGX / PREOX ($215M / $100M mmc) vs PVFIX ($415M w.amc) / AVALX ($1,272M w.amc) / OBMCX (< $600M mc) / WAMVX ($1,170M amc)?
    Perritt funds invest in the smallest of microcaps. They have not performed recently, but PRCGX has done well before during economic upturns after periods of uncertainty (as partially evidenced by the 15-y 11.65% AATR under the same manager per MStar).
  • PKSAX/PKSCX/PKSFX - Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core Fund - any backdoors?
    @Devo thanks for the tip.
    Just quickly checked out AVALX. I like that it is underweighted in technology and it looks to have had a pretty good run over the last 5 years. Definitely, on par with PKSFX.
    But the -39%/-50% max drawdowns at AVALX vs -18%/-18% at PKSFX over 5/10 year windows under same managers - at least, if you believe Mstar - are worrisome.
    Open to any other suggestions.
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    I will share my bond portion as of today. My target is 25% of portfolio. RPHYX (9%),Cash(6%),SNGVX (2%),STIP (2%),TPHAX(3%). I may add to exisiting funds or add Crash's favorite of old PTIAX.
  • FOMC Statement, 3/20/24
    Post Conference Notes by YBB
    Rates were maintained - fed funds 5.25-5.50%, bank reserves rate 5.4%, discount rate 5.5%. Rates may be higher for longer; need more confidence in progress towards inflation goal. No specifics provided for June cut. Current policy is restrictive. Financial conditions are tight.
    QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -$35 billion/mo for MBS; total -$95 billion/mo. Cumulative balance sheet reduction -$1.5 trillion. There was some talk of slowing down QT & being monitored are money-markets, bank reserves and liquidity.
    Inflation is still too high; there are some sticky areas. Target is +2% average "over time" (mentioned several times).
    Labor market remains tight, wages are going up at a slower pace, unemployment rate is near target. Economy is in good shape also.
    Housing contribution to CPI, PCE, etc is via OERs (owners' equivalent rent) & that should be lower in due course.
    Fed is studying & keeping up with the developments on digital currencies, CBDC, fin tech, but isn't working on a launch of digital-dollar unless Congress approves first.
    Fed transparency is good as-is.
    There were new SEP data.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1397/thread
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    My primary bond fund is DOXIX.
    I also have some 5 Yr TIPS which will be held to maturity.
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    My experience is much like stillers. In fact we overbuilt our CPCD ladder. We sorta got addicted to a 5% return. In anticipation of declining rates and tempted by a much talked about share appreciation from intermediate bond funds we started building a position in Dodge and Cox Income. Perhaps we were early.
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    None.
    All we ever reasonably expected as LT TRs from dedicated bond funds was 4%-5%. So when CP CD rates matched, then exceeded that threshold, all of our dedicated bonds funds were replaced with a 5-yr, CP CD ladder paying over 5% APY. The only bonds we currently own are via allocation funds FBALX and PRWCX, and their bonds account for less than 5% of our total portfolio value.
  • Texas pulls $8.5 billion from BlackRock funds, and in related news ...
    Reuters...
    Environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing boomed in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic as low oil prices spurred more investors to diversify beyond fossil fuels, and as fund managers sought to appear more climate-conscious. The category started to fall out of favor in 2022 as conventional energy prices soared.
    Political backlash against ESG led by Republican politicians in the United States, as well as suspicions of greenwashing involving claims that are not substantiated, have also tarnished the luster of ESG funds. "Greenwashing" refers to companies making false or deceptive claims about the environmental benefits of their products, services or policies.
    Globally, funds classified as "responsible investing" recorded $68 billion of net new deposits in 2023 through Nov. 30, LSEG Lipper data showed. That was down sharply from $158 billion for all of 2022 and from $558 billion for all of 2021.
    My take...too arbitrary...show me an ESG fund that invests in the likes of Google etc...and I will laugh out loud, listening in on your conversations, selling your information, making you a product...no way many ESG companies are true to the term ESG....not for me, no thank you.
  • Texas pulls $8.5 billion from BlackRock funds, and in related news ...
    Texas has identified 10 firms with which it will not invest because their ESG screened funds "immeasurably damages our state’s oil and gas economy." The firms affected are, almost without exception, European firms (Schroders PLC) with some American operations. The list of 348 individually banned funds and ETFs includes the Brown Advisory Sustainable Growth Fund (BIAWX) which is in my portfolio and all versions of the ESG-screen S&P 500. The link downloads an Excel spreadsheet. Tab one are the forbidden companies and two tab are the forbidden funds.
    The largest move pursuant to that policy is the newly announced decision by the Texas State Board of Education to pull $8.5 billion from BlackRock for suspicion that it's pursuing sustainable investments as a way of "privileging liberal goals." BlackRock argues that it factors in ESG metrics because they are financially significant data points. Illustrating what some might perceive as hypocrisy, BlackRock and others also highlight the fact that they continue to invest heavily in the fossil fuel industry. Fox News describes the withdrawals as "a stunning blow to the ESG movement."
    In related news, as of 19 March 2024, the ESG-screened version of the S&P 500 has outperformed the full S&P 500 over the past year. And the past two years. Also the past three years, four years and five years (per Morningstar interactive chart of SNPE versus VOO.
    Across multiple time periods, ESG screened funds with some US equity exposure (US centered, global, mixed asset) perform about as well as non-screened funds; that is, 51-55% have top half returns since inception, over three years, over five years ...
  • Biden's budget assumption: interest rates might actually be "higher for longer"
    Einstein (among others): Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
    How about callable bonds or CDs? If interest rates stay higher, longer, then they won't get called and you may be able to eek out a slightly higher yield that way. The question is how much you are willing to risk.
    Last Dec I bought a small 9 mo CD, callable in 6 mo, in my inherited Roth IRA. That was money dedicated to this year's RMD. Interest rates had been declining since Sept 2023 and this CD had the best return I could get. No big loss if rates continued declining and it got called in June. But it seemed that expectations for rates to continue falling decisively were overblown.
    Right now, that CD is quoted at $100.02 - no increase in value. That's why one doesn't buy brokered CDs expecting liquidity. But they're fine for targeted purposes (like a Q4 RMD). Getting one that is callable can be a reasonable bet if one is expecting "higher for longer".
  • abrdn Emerging Markets Sustainable Leaders Fund will be reorganized
    EM ex-China was in response to Fed TSP move to shift its I Fund from broad MSCI EAFE to something ex-China/HK, and that is now MSCI ACWI ex-China/HK.
    So, a reality is that such ex-China/HK indexes have been developed after some huffing and puffing. Whether this commercially catches on, $78 billion TSP I Fund won't care.
    A few years ago, Asia ex-Japan indexes were developed for commercial reasons when Japan just couldn't get up. Let us see how they will do in the current Japanese market run to new all-time highs (in yen; still ways to go in $s).
    https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2023/11/tsp-board-oks-new-international-fund-index-time-without-china/392049/
    https://www.tsp.gov/plan-news/2024-02-05-I-Fund-benchmark-index-change-in-2024/
  • Tim Buckley led meteoric growth at Vanguard, knew when to say 'no'
    Vanguard raises eyebrows in search for new CEO
    “Vanguard is an insular place and a tightly run organization,” said Charles Elson, a corporate-governance scholar who teaches a mergers course at University of Pennsylvania’s law school.
    Vanguard’s board, led by CEO Buckley, seems designed to nurture consensus rather than chart bold new courses, Elson says. It includes academics and retired senior managers from a range of companies, but no current or former public company CEOs. (By contrast, Vanguard’s competitor BlackRock’s board includes Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg, Cisco chief executive Chuck Robbins, and Estee Lauder CEO Fabrizio Freda, among other top corporate bosses.)
    ”Their board is self-perpetuating and insulated from challenges. Up until now at least, they haven’t thought they needed a change,” Elson said. “If you are happy with the way things are going, you won’t change. Only if they have a radical cultural problem do you go outside for change agents.”
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/vanguard-raises-eyebrows-in-search-for-new-ceo/ar-BB1k8hrp?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=06a051a95df546938c3e039d23746503&ei=31
  • abrdn Emerging Markets Sustainable Leaders Fund will be reorganized
    … of the Fund into the abrdn Emerging Markets ex-China Fund (the "Acquiring Fund"), a series of the Trust.

    As the geopolitical friction rises between China and the west, many managers ask the question of whether China is
    investible from investor’s perspective. Additionally, China’s economy has not fully recovered since their second wave of COVID pandemic. And their +30 % weighing in major EM indices adds to their underperformance.
    Other mutual funds have already offer EM funds excluding China, iShares also made several ETFs excluding China such as EMXC.
    Agree with the geopolitical tensions, but from what I see - i don't see a ton of advisors choosing EM ex china funds nor clients asking for that. That's a level of granularity I don't know if people care about? There are 15+ EM ex china funds on the market and none of them are sizable with what looks liek flows continuing to passive EM (with china) funds.
    I do wonder if this EM ex China is a real thing or just a sign of the times and will be irrelevant in 5 years.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    JUQA GQLIX ( or USBOX or QLTY) pretty close to FUQIX over 3 5 years
    Not much difference.
  • Fido Double Secret Probation
    into my 45th minute and fourth rep!!!
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    am a GMO philosophy fan, but not of their expensive offerings.
    here is what didn't happen :
    45 years ago, GMO had only one fund based on their quality metrics, and never needed to offer anything else.
  • TIAA/CREF VAs at MFO
    MFO Premium Tickers - Portfolios, Watchlists, Charts
    Lipper (so, MFO Premium too) has FIXED the CREF VA class flip between R1 & R3. Rather than editing the previous posts, here are now the CORRECT tickers presented in 2 groups. In the 12/7/23 OP, a simple way to think of this CHANGE is that the MFO Premium ticker orders shown now are from the lowest ER to the highest ER, or R3, R2, R1 (vs previously the highest ER to the lowest ER, or R1, R2, R3).
    TIAA (Direct) Real Estate VA IF-SMZQ (alternatives) still has a single class and is included in the first group.
    Note the MFO Premium capabilities of handling the VAs, OEFs, ETFs, CEFs in an integrated way for portfolios, watchlists, charting. So, if your work 401k/403b offers some insurance VAs as well as mutual funds and ETFs (via brokerage window), then MFO Premium is to tool to analyze them all.
    R1
    CREF Stock, Hybrid & Real Estate VAs (R1) & VTSAX (US Total Stock)
    IF-CMQ8 IF-CMQ6 IF-CMQ4 IF-CMP4 IF-CMP6 IF-SMZQ VTSAX
    CREF Bond VAs (R1) & VBTLX (US Total Bond)
    IF-CMR2 IF-CMQ2 IF-CMP8 VBTLX
    R2
    CREF Stock, Hybrid & Real Estate VAs (R2) & VTSAX (US Total Stock)
    IF-CMQ7 IF-CMQ5 IF-CMQ3 IF-CMP3 IF-CMP5 IF-SMZQ VTSAX
    CREF Bond VAs (R2) & VBTLX (US Total Bond)
    IF-CMQ9 IF-CMP9 IF-CMP7 VBTLX
    R3
    CREF Stock, Hybrid & Real Estate VAs (R3) & VTSAX (US Total Stock)
    IF-MDMF IF-SKRL IF-FDWD IF-THMV IF-CBMF IF-SMZQ VTSAX
    CREF Bond VAs (R3) & VBTLX (US Total Bond)
    IF-MTJQ IF-WPZK IF-RWDV VBTLX
    Class Verification Portfolio Runs, 3/17/24
    CREF Stock IF-CBMF IF-CMP5 IF-CMP6
    CREF Social Choice IF-THMV IF-CMP3 IF-CMP4
    LINK
    Thanks @Charles & @David_Snowball.