Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs And here's more on what was thought to be priced in from The Barron's Daily (BOLD added)
Trump Tariffs Cause Stock Market Chaos. Why Wall Street Didn’t Act on Warnings and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
President Donald Trump looks set to deliver on his promise and impose hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with Europe next in his sights. Amid all the turbulence that’s causing in financial markets, one question is obvious—why is this such a surprise?
After all, this is what Trump promised to do since he started his campaign to retake the White House. He reiterated it after he was elected in November. He even gave specific numbers and dates for a start last week.
But traders were still skeptical that anything material would come of it. Stocks rose markedly in January, extending impressive gains since Trump’s victory in November on optimism that deregulation and tax cuts would bolster corporate earnings.
The reason investors dismissed the rather obvious signs was because the tariffs don’t seem to make sense. Maybe they would work as a negotiating technique to extract concessions on other things, but from an economic perspective it’s hard to see what tariffs accomplish—other than rapidly increasing prices for fuel and other goods that will hamper economic growth.
Furthermore, the actual announcement was on the extreme end of the spectrum of what was possible. George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted that the tariffs are three times larger than had been priced into the market—and five times as big as the cumulative action Trump took in his first term.
To be sure, Trump may yet de-escalate and walk back the levies—or be forced to do so by the courts or Congress. Given the market’s early losses Monday, it would still be a huge surprise if the tariffs lasted a long time—it certainly seems unlikely they will be in place for four years.
One thing is clear. Chaos and confusion will remain a feature of Trump’s policies.
Ocean shipping, Panama Canal. On February 2, 2025, Panama offered several concessions to the United States following a meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Jose Raul Mulino. The concessions include:
Free passage for US warships through the Panama Canal.
Withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Optimizing transit priority for US Navy ships through the waterway.
These concessions were made in response to concerns raised by the US regarding Chinese influence over the Panama Canal and the high fees charged to US ships. Additionally, the Panamanian government discussed migration issues, offering an airstrip near the Darien Gap for repatriation proceedings.
Maybe I can breathe again re: BLX? But I am pissed. The Orange bully got his way. Granted, the Chinese installations---non-military--- did make me itch.
Tariff Markets Open.... @rforno, with all due respect, I think your thread title would be more appropriate if it read,
"Tariff President's Markets Open."
As stated on air a while ago by one notable journalist (paraphrasing):
"No president or even presidential candidate in US history other than the buffoon was ever stoopid enough to claim he
wanted to be known as the 'Tariff President'."
Sadly, a mere two weeks into the mayhem, he's accomplished that goal!
More broadly, the previously successful strategy of "buying the dip" is going to be very difficult under his regime, as investors will never know when the next buffoon-induced market DROP will occur.
UBS Wealth does however this AM provide these thoughts:
UBS Wealth reiterated its 6,600 target for S&P 500. 'Tariffs unlikely to be sustained.'
Many observers don't think the tariffs will last very long.
"Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are unlikely to be sustained, U.S. economic growth should represent a tailwind for stocks, and we continue to believe that AI presents a powerful structural tailwind for earnings and equity markets," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS.
He pointed to several off ramps: for one, industry groups will file court challenges as well as lobby for their removal. The tariffs also could be a tactic to reaccelerate a renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term. The tariffs also could lead to concessions from Mexico and Canada.
There's also the brief period before the tariffs go into effect, on Tuesday, for negotiation, as well as the several weeks that will be needed for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to actually implement them, judging by the 2018 and 2019 experience, he said.
Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs Imports into the US -
EU imports went from $200b in year 2000 to 600b now; whereas Canada imports went from $200b to 400b. I am sure EU membership has expanded during that period but still that much more imports from a region that presumably is a nursing home makes me think what the hell have we been. China and HK went from 100b to 440b, after hitting nearly 600b a few years ago. Mexico is the biggest beneficiary going from 100b to 500b. Japan stayed steady more or less around 150b, which means as a percentage of our GDP, imports from Japan fell drastically. My earlier comments about China diversifying their exports to the US can be seen in the data.
In any case, given so much illegal immigration is from (and through) Mexico, I think providing serious disincentive to Mexico was warranted 20-30 years ago. This is not a new problem. The biggest beneficiary US industries of illegal immigration must have now decided they received too many than they want. Mexico has had governance problems for as long as I can remember. Why were not illegal immigration and drugs tied into trade agreements for all these years? So, all the public reasoning provided for current Tariffs does not add up for me. Show me what is behind the curtain. Makes me think neither the illegal immigration nor drugs from Mexico will be solved in my lifetime.
Flaming Orange Craziness tariffs CBC: (Interesting, the way Canadians are able to name appointed US cabinet officials. How many Yanks know the names of those counterparts?)
Canada is already expecting Recession, big jump in unemployment, a hit to the Loonie. Featured here are: conflicting signals from the Orange "Administration;" trying to know Trumpster's mind; realizing that he is like a shark who can smell blood. Surely,Trump's been told that the Trudeau gummint is by now a caretaker. A lame duck. "Canada catches the flu whenever the US catches a cold."
https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16125416-the-implications-donald-trumps-tariffs-canadian-goods
Tariff Markets Open.... I am watching closely on the H
5N1 virus as it mutates and jumps from birds to human. Few death cases are due to the existing health issues of those infected.
The speed of transmission from one poultry farm to another is alarming. Even with the current Biohazard practice in these farms, it has not stopped all cases. That is one reason egg production has hauled in part of the country while raises egg prices. Thousands gallons of milk were destroyed with the detection of the virus in the milk.
In contrast, New Zealand and few countries (cannot recalled) have had few COVID deaths and minimal economic suffering due to their fast reaction and scientific know how’s. Granted, these are small countries and easier to closed their boarders. Noted that these countries were headed by women as my wife reminded me.
@rforno, another view of the future market for tomorrow. Stocks are all down globally. Bonds are mostly in green.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Tariff Markets Open....
Tariff Markets Open.... This is the first round of tariff with China, Canada and Mexico. Both Canada and Mexico retaliated the same 25% tariffs, especially liquor from Red States. China is taking their case to WTO. There is more to come as he also threatens EU and England.
Tariffs affect both sides and they should not be taken lightly of tools in trading policy. I keep thinking what are the catalyst(s) that trigger the market sell off?
imo, FOTUS escalating things out of the blue because his feels like it. As a bully, he doesn't like it when countries he attacks stand up and/or retaliate against him.
Automakers are already cowering, being afraid to speak up out of fear of incurring FOTUS' wrath -- what does *that* tell you about the so-called 'free markets' here?
