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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MMNIX - Miller Market Neutral Income Fund
    In general I'm not fond of using daily figures for statistical calculations - too much noise unless you're a trader.
    In this case though, those spikes are not noise but data errors. TestFol didn't handle divs correctly. LEOIX went ex-div on Dec. 20th. The div was $0.191 (Yahoo). NAV's were:
    Dec 19 - $8.75
    Dec 20 - $8.58
    Dec 23 - $8.54
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LEOIX/history/
    On Dec 20th, TestFol appears to have added the div to the old price to get a spike. It corrected that the next day (Dec 23rd). Hence the supposed 2.06% "drawdown" on the 23rd.
    Actual gain on Dec 20th was: [($8.58 + $0.191) - $8.75] / $8.75 = 0.24%
    Using Yahoo's adj close: ($8.58 - $8.56) / $8.56 = 0.233%
    Using TestFol's figures (mouse over graph):
    Dec 19 - $11,082.19
    Dec 20 - $11,286.16
    Gain: ($11,286.16 - $11,082.19) / $11,082.19 = 1.84%
    FWIW using Yahoo's daily adjusted close figures from Jan 2, 2024 through May 19, 2025, the (daily) standard deviation of LEOIX is 1.58.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Did you rant with the same passion about the rich 1-2-3-4-10 years ago?
    Let's hear why it was better in that period.
    The rich get richer is old news.
    From memory, an average CEO used to make 30 times their average employee, it's over 300 times for years.
    Our politicians are great at spending money if they want to get elected.
    The US was downgraded already in 2011.
    Please save me the tears, Dems policies are great, GOP are evil.
    Another thread that discuss politics and policies without current investment applications.
    I don't need to explain my people, I don't have people, I voted for both parties and what I do with my own money or my contributions is irrelevant.
  • MMNIX - Miller Market Neutral Income Fund
    You may be getting misled by its extremely short history. Eyeballing its performance graph at M*, it looks like it tracked the entire (20 fund) category pretty closely. That is, the 1.6 std dev is not something special for this fund, but rather it is typical of the whole category over this short time span.
    Here's a Portfolio Visualizer comparison of MMNIX with two other relative value arbitrage funds. The other two funds, LEOIX and PSCAX have had no negative months in the same 16 month span.
    LEOIX does have a slightly higher std dev (1.7), but has a 12.05% annualized return vs. 9.63% for MMNIX. This results in a Sharpe ratio of 3.76 vs. 2.75 for MMNIX.
    PSCAX has a lower std dev of 1.45, but one pays for that with a lower annualized return of 8.23% and a lower Sharpe ratio of 2.16.
    If you want to get a sense of what to expect from this fund over a significant period of time, you could look at how these other funds performed. Over ten years, they've each returned 3.9% annually, give or take a few basis points (per Fidelity).
    One doesn't need to look at alternatives for funds that offer a smooth a ride and decent performance. Here's a Fidelity comparison of PRFRX with LEOIX and PSCAX. PRFRX has outperformed PSCAX over 3, 5, and 10 years with a similar 3 year std dev. Its performance longer term is comparable to LEOIX with a 3 year std dev that's about 1/3 lower. And half the cost (ER) of both.
  • Franklin Advisors to convert following Putnam funds into ETFs
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/711402/000092881625000624/a_pgofp29.htm
    Putnam California Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Massachusetts Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Minnesota Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam New Jersey Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam New York Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Ohio Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Pennsylvania Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Short-Term Municipal Income Fund
    Putnam Tax-Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Tax Free High Yield Fund
  • Putnam Intermediate-Term Municipal Income Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005942/000092881625000646/a_39212p1.htm
    497 1 a_39212p1.htm PUTNAM FUNDS TRUST
    39212-P1 05/25
    SUPPLEMENT DATED May 19, 2025
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS
    OF PUTNAM INTERMEDIATE-TERM MUNICIPAL INCOME FUND
    At a meeting held on May 16, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Putnam Funds Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate Putnam Intermediate-Term Municipal Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust (the “Plan”), upon recommendation by Franklin Advisers, Inc., the Fund’s investment adviser. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on or about July 18, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), although the Fund may make dispositions of portfolio holdings prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Effective July 3, 2025, the Fund will be closed to new investors, and effective July 15, 2025, the Fund will be closed to new purchases from existing investors, with limited exceptions, in anticipation of the liquidation. Shareholders can redeem their shares from the Fund at any time on or before the close of business on July 18, 2025 at the then-current net asset value.
    As soon as reasonably practicable after the Liquidation Date, after the payment of (or provision for) all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities, whether due or accrued or anticipated, of the Fund, and after determination of any dividend(s) to be paid pursuant to the Plan, the Fund will liquidate its remaining assets and distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders as of July 18, 2025 who have not previously redeemed all of their Fund shares or exchanged their Fund shares for those of another Putnam fund.
    Shareholders should consult their tax advisors about the tax implications of the liquidation of the Fund.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • MMNIX - Miller Market Neutral Income Fund
    MMNIX - Came across this "relative value arbitrage" fund that has a really nice, smooth run during the past few months. How many funds can say that? In its brief 16 month life, MMNIX had only 1 negative month (-0.20%).
    The Miller Market Neutral Income Fund (MMNIX) has a $1 million minimum, which is an issue for the average investor. The Class A version (MMNAX) has not yet been rolled out despite being listed on the prospectus. I am inquiring with Miller as to whether Class A and C will ever be available.
    https://www.millerfamilyoffunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Miller-Market-Neutral-Fund-MMNIX-Q1-2025-Fact-Sheet.pdf
    I appreciate a low SD fund (1.6) that can return ~10% per year. A little more history would be nice, of course.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Fact, the Moody downgrade was a non-event.
    The SP500 was up.
    And this remark addresses the issues raised... how?
    Not at all. Sure, there's always money to be made. And everyone is free to ignore our collective mutual responsibility to each other. We can live ethically, or unethically, or amorally. No one can force you to care about anyone else.
    1 Timothy 6:10 communicates a great deal of wisdom.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat,” said Moody’s. “In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. The US’s fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared with other highly rated sovereigns.”
    The coddled, spoiled, under-taxed wealthy have effectively been cannibalizing the rest of us for many years. Extension of the 2017 tax cut will simply accelerate that process. Current federal "leadership" in all three branches of gummint have created of s-hole country here already. On the current trajectory, we'll just slide deeper into the toilet. Misguided public priorities, misappropriated money, and the LACK of public funds available show up in so many ways: still no universal medical coverage. Still, we have antiquated mass transit. Still, the schools graduate kids who can't read and function and think. If there is a single decent lesson to be learned from the current regime, it's that gov't no longer is actually responsive to people's needs--- but not because there is some weird-ass "deep state" conspiracy.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Earlier in this thread I invited @FD1000 to comment on the pending major increase in US Government debt. I see that he showed up here (just above) but evidently doesn't care to say much on this subject.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    JP Morgan chief warns of ‘complacency’ as markets look past credit downgrade
    Jamie Dimon says possibility of stagflation far higher than investors realize as markets shake off Moody’s triple-A cut
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon warned on Monday that investors were being too complacent as markets shook off news that the US has lost its last triple-A credit rating amid fresh concern over the federal government’s burgeoning debt pile.
    Credit ratings agency Moody’s dealt a blow to Washington on Friday when it stripped the US of its top-notch rating, downgrading the world’s largest economy by one notch to AA1 and become becoming the last of the big three agencies to drop its triple-A rating for the US.
    The announcement unnerved markets on Monday morning, but stock markets had recovered by the end of the day. Speaking at JP Morgan’s annual investor day meeting in New York, Dimon warned against complacency. “We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks. You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think [they can],” he said.
    Dimon said he saw an “extraordinary amount of complacency” and added that he believes the possibility of stagflation – a recession with rising prices – was far higher than investors believe.
    On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 fell during early trading, before recovering its losses to close marginally higher, while the tech-focused Nasdaq also closed broadly flat after reversing early declines. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% in London.
    Bond markets also came under pressure, with the yield on 30-year US treasury bonds climbing 13 basis points to 5.026%. Yields rise as bond prices drop; an increase signals that investors are seeking a higher return for holding US debt. The dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.
    “Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat,” said Moody’s. “In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. The US’s fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared with other highly rated sovereigns.”
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    As I wrote before, Moody's is late to the party. In that sense, Bessent is correct that Moody's is a lagging indicator. However, Moody's is also correct that there has been an "increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”
    The "more than a decade" that Moody's is looking at started in 2013 when Congress, with bipartisan support, made the Bush tax cuts permanent.
    Right through 2012, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was projecting declining debt through 2037 (25 years).
    Under the extended baseline scenario, which generally adheres closely to current law, federal debt would gradually decline over the next 25 years—from an estimated 73 percent of GDP this year to 61 percent by 2022 and 53 percent by 2037. ...
    ...
    The budget outlook is much bleaker under the extended alternative fiscal scenario, which maintains what some analysts might consider “current policies,” as opposed to current laws. Federal debt would grow rapidly from its already high level, exceeding 90 percent of GDP in 2022.
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/43288
    In 2013, after making the Bush tax cuts permanent, the CBO offered this outlook:
    CBO produced an extended baseline for this report that extrapolates those projections through 2038 (and, with even greater uncertainty, through later decades). Under the extended baseline, budget deficits would rise steadily and, by 2038, would push federal debt held by the public close to the percentage of GDP seen just after World War II—even without factoring in the harm that growing debt would cause to the economy.
    ...
    [U]nder the assumptions of the extended baseline, CBO projects [b]y 2038, the deficit would be 6½ percent of GDP, larger than in any year between 1947 and 2008, and federal debt held by the public would reach 100 percent of GDP, more than in any year except 1945 and 1946. With such large deficits, federal debt would be growing faster than GDP, a path that would ultimately be unsustainable.
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44521
    Moody's did not pull "over a decade" out of a hat because a decade sounds like a nice round number. It started at 2013 for a reason. And now, even without extending the Trump tax cuts, CBO is projecting deficits to run around about 6.1% of GDP annually over the next decade. That's not much less than 6½ and likewise unsustainable.
  • Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all!
    And the knowledge gained in all things financial over the years has allowed us to award our own degrees in 'economics' to ourselves. :) We've been able to share and pass along the knowledge. Compound, compound, compound !!!
    Yes. I’ve learned so much from the highly capable informed investors here over the years.
    And a plug for The Humble Investor by Daniel Rasmussen which @Observant1 shared here recently. I listen to the audio book most nights. His take isn’t mainstream. His idea of smart investing is to avoid whatever’s been hot and seek out underappreciated areas. And he admits that it hasn’t worked that well in recent years. But an interesting conversation nonetheless.
    I infer from Rasmussen that he perceives a lot of bubbles, especially in the private equity area - but late night listening isn’t always accurate and he’s pretty subtle.
  • Reality check (closed, this has sort of run its course)
    I've been active on several investment sites for over 15 years, and MFO stands out as one of the best.
    It’s a unique platform with valuable insights, thoughtful discussions, and a long-standing community. Unfortunately, it's also the only investment site I’ve seen where political posts—by a huge margin from one side of the aisle—have hijacked the conversation and driven incivility to the forefront. No other investment forum I follow has experienced this to the same extent.
    This site has been read and respected by hundreds over the years. Every few weeks, I make an effort to help bring back the original spirit of MFO—an investment-focused space grounded in respectful, insightful dialogue.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    A key expression in Moody's press release is "Without adjustments to taxation and spending".
    What does "without adjustments" mean? There are two interpretations: under current law and under current policy. If you were to say this sounds like doublespeak, I wouldn't disagree. Nevertheless, the former means literally as the law is written, i.e. with the 2017 tax cuts expiring, while the latter means that the "policy" of reduced taxes continues unabated.
    https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/the-2025-tax-debate-all-about-that-baseline/
    What Moody's is using as its base case is not current law, but current policy. While that's likely to happen, it is still hypothetical as Moody's acknowledges. The GOP has tried to position this as not costing a dime, let alone an extra $4T over the next decade. "Key Senate leaders are endorsing the idea that tax cuts are not really tax cuts at all, and thus have no cost."
    https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/no-matter-how-congress-labels-it-extending-2017-tax-cuts-will-cost-4-trillion-plus
    While maintaining current policy would cause the debt to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035, a budget under current law wouldn't be that much better. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal debt would still rise to 118% of GDP. In dollars, the debt would rise from its current $30.1T to $52.1T in 2035.
    https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/visualizing-cbos-budget-and-economic-outlook-2025/
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1

    Fictional or reality?
    Reality. Although not 'bonds' those bundled products were "dogshit wrapped inside catshit"[2] and given a triple-A rating because $$$$$$$. Or as Anthony Bourdain (RIP) said in the film about bundled products back then, "it's not 3-day-old fish, it's a whole new thing!"[1]
    (that movie should be required watching for investors!)
    [1]
    [2]
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1

    "The Big Short" movie- ratings Agencies - discussion about assigning ratings to mortgage tranches:
    Standard & Poors "If we don't give them the (AAA) ratings, they will go to Moodys".
    Fictional or reality?
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1

    yogibearbull....link is from 2021.
    i assume these agencies make huge $ due to corporate ratings not being static.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Moody's downgrade of U.S. government debt is kind of a non-event.
    The other two major credit rating agencies already downgraded this debt years ago.
    However, we should heed Moody's rationale.
    Here is their rationale, in part:
    "Over more than a decade, US federal debt has risen sharply due to continuous fiscal deficits.
    During that time, federal spending has increased while tax cuts have reduced government revenues.
    As deficits and debt have grown, and interest rates have risen,
    interest payments on government debt have increased markedly."

    "Without adjustments to taxation and spending, we expect budget flexibility to remain limited,
    with mandatory spending, including interest expense, projected to rise to around 78%
    of total spending by 2035 from about 73% in 2024. If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended,
    which is our base case, it will add around $4 trillion to the federal fiscal primary
    (excluding interest payments) deficit over the next decade.
    "

    "Underpinning the rating is our assumption that the US' institutions and governance will not materially weaken,
    even if they are tested at times. In particular, we assume that the long-standing checks and balances
    between the three branches of government and respect for the rule of law will remain broadly unchanged.
    In addition, we assess that the US has capacity to adjust its fiscal trajectory,
    even as policy decision-making evolves from one administration to the next."
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    These are exceptions that prove the rule. The sovereign ceiling rule is a de facto rule, i.e. one generally followed in practice by Fitch, by Moody's and by others. The fact that S&P followed this rule uniformly in the only instance in a single country (the US) where it downgraded the sovereign debt does not prove that this is a rule it will follow without exception.
    As the saying goes, past performance does not guarantee future results.
    From 2017:
    [A]ccording to a report from S&P Global Ratings...
    Insurance company ratings are not limited by the rating on their sovereign, but they are affected by the economic and market consequences that typically occur in times of sovereign stress, says S&P in the report. It adds that it is unusual to rate an issuer above the sovereign unless it benefits either from external support or limited exposure to the sovereign domicile. S&P rates 93 insurance companies higher than the sovereign of their domicile, although the majority of these benefit from one of these two factors
    https://www.commercialriskonline.com/sp-insurance-ratings-affected-sovereign-stress/