European stocks have done really well this year.
VGK (Europe) returned 17.9% while EZU (Eurozone) returned 22.1%.
Stock markets in Poland, Austria, Greece, and Spain generated returns greater than 32%.
Returns are as of 5/13/2025.
https://bilello.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/country-etfs-5-14.png

PRPFX has worked well this year thanks to a 20% gold allocation. It's +9.65% YTD.
QMNNX - AQR Market Neutral fund has held up very nicely. Up +13.89% YTD.
Now, if only their recent performance was some kind of indicator ("guarantee") of future performance......

”The main concern with doing simple (straight line) extrapolations is that they assume nothing will change.”
Yes. Could have worded my comment better. And nothing ”run of the mill” about the pretty good funds I listed.
”projecting out what that rate of return would produce through an entire year.”
Maybe instead -”representing an annual rate-of-return of roughly … “ ?
I circumvented @LarryB ‘s question which was more along the lines of “What may do well?” rather than ”What has already done well?” Like most here, I don’t make predictions. My four core holdings (15.5% each) are: global infrastructure, real assets, limited-term preferreds and a long-short equity fund. While that may indicate where I’m leaning, it in no way assures where markets will go.
Investment choices should relate to situation and time-horizon … Andrew Marvell might well have been speaking of investing: ”Had we but world enough and time, This coyness, lady, were no crime.”
:)

Outstanding socially responsible article from a leading financial publication. Couldn’t agree more with their conclusions and deep concerns. It occurs to me, however, that the same addictive personalities probably gamble in other ways like day-trading stocks or taking on excessive debt. Delinquencies on auto loans increasing.
A few excerpts:
”Addiction experts say a public-health time bomb is ticking.”
- After four years of back and forth, Kentucky in 2023 passed a bill to legalize sports betting beyond thoroughbred racing. To win over a group of holdouts in the state Senate, lawmakers added a problem gambling assistance account to the legislation. It earmarked 2.5% of the state's new gambling tax revenue to fund workforce training, treatment, and research. The remainder goes to the state's pension fund for public employees.
- DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM were among the gambling firms that advocated for the bill. In total, the industry spent $443,000 lobbying the Kentucky legislature in 2023, state records show. DraftKings was enthusiastic about the bill's passage. In August 2023, the company boosted its revenue outlook for the year, calling out $20 million in new revenue expected from Kentucky in the final three months of the year. Soon after, DraftKings told investors it had signed up more than 5% of Kentucky's adult population within five weeks of going live in the state.
- The betting trend has played out much the same way across the U.S. Americans now wager roughly $150 billion a year on sports, and 48% of American men under 50 have an account on a digital sportsbook at sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPNBet, and BetMGM, according to a Siena College survey.
- The challenge for policymakers trying to regulate gambling is its almost magical benefits to state coffers.
Gambling is "a very effective way to get more state budget without having to raise taxes," says Heather Wardle, a professor of gambling research and policy at the University of Glasgow. Once gambling revenue is supporting pension funds, infrastructure, and other state priorities, Wardle says, "it's very hard to then roll back from that."
- An 11-year study ending in 2016 & found that one in five people with a gambling disorder had attempted suicide. The National Council on Problem Gambling estimates 1% of American adults, or 2.5 million people, meet the criteria. The federal government, which collected roughly $370 million in federal excise tax on sports gambling last year, has no programs in place for that group. The U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, by contrast, has an annual budget of $7 billion.
- "When you think of the Derby, you think of beautiful hats, stately horses, mint juleps, pageantry, pomp and circumstance, and the fun that's involved," Clark says. "You don't think of somebody out back getting ready to shoot themselves because they bet $10,000 on a horse and they're not going to be able to make their house payment."
Personal note: As a long time DraftKings customer my sports bets are limited to less than $1 on average per day and only while actively viewing a game. (Minimum wager is 50-cents.) I am appalled that the site relentlessly and flagrantly “pushes” those who log in to play games of chance like ”Roulette” & ”Black Jack” and to deposit additional sums (usually via debit card). Lord help those who take the bait. Certainly, the article has summoned up reservations about my continued participation on moral grounds.
* Excerpts in italics from: ”America’s Sports Betting Boom Is About to Backfire” - by Nick Devor (Print Ed.) Barron’s - dated May 26, 2025

Thanks all for sharing your thoughts. My current risk assets are limited to TRIGX,, CGDV and DODLX. All actively managed and not low cost by any standards. It’s not business as usual for me,,,

M* classifies DODLX as a global bond fund (not hedged). It has an ER of 0.45%.
M* shows 10 ETFs in this category. Half (5) have ERs of 0.5% or more. M* lists 147 share classes of OEFs in this category. DODLX has the 6th lowest ER. (The fifth cheapest is DOXLX.) By this metric at least, DODLX looks cheap. Not as cheap as one would hope a bond fund would be, but still low cost for a global bond fund.
Lipper rates it a 4 out of 5 on expense.

The main concern with doing simple (straight line) extrapolations is that they assume nothing will change. Businesses will ignore increasing uncertainty in the world, both economic and geopolitical. The markets will keep chugging along.
We've already seen that past is not necessarily prologue. This year (YTD), the FTSE Europe Developed Market All Cap Index (VGK) has outperformed the S&P 1500 (ITOT), 20% to -1% (M* charts). But over the past 10 years (through 2024) the US has outperformed foreign markets, both cumulative and on a calendar year basis (except for 2017 and 2022). See Portfolio Visualizer.
Likewise, value (VTV) leading growth (VUG) by 2% this year is a reversal from the previous 10 years (again with 2022 being an exception).
DODWX and DODFX are fine funds in their categories. Disregarding their somewhat superior performance relative to peers YTD (36th percentile and 47th percentile respectively per M*), their solid YTD returns are due largely to their categories (value and 50% or 100% foreign) having done well.
The question remains: even if foreign equities (and value) continue to outperform domestic (and growth) equities, will they continue to have positive returns?
I'm not one to make macro calls. I'm usually strongly inclined to follow the adage: don't just do something, stand there :-). But even I am looking at the writing on the wall and starting to consider how I would reconstruct my portfolio from scratch if I went substantially to cash now. Fortunately I'm in a position to do that and take the hit (opportunity cost) if I'm wrong and markets go up.
Regarding the "run of the mill" funds:
PRWCX is having one of its poorest performances relative to peers, all the way "down" to the 22nd percentile. Typically growth leaning, it has moved solidly into blend (37% of portfolio is LCBl) suggesting that Giroux also sees the markets moving toward value. (It is also open to investors who have at least $250K total invested at TRP.)
DODBX is having a banner year (4th percentile) relative to peers. Some due to good management & low cost, some due to being very value-oriented. (Allocation funds are not partitioned into value, blend, growth subcategories). Its category average YTD is just 0.73% (M*).
FKIQX likewise may be doing well this year due to its very value leanings. Same category as DODBX.
TRRIX benefits from having over 1/4 of its equity holdings in foreign securities. It is a global moderately conservative allocation fund. Its return is in the middle of its category (47th percentile YTD). Some category peers that have done better YTD, like VGWIX and FAFWX, have value leaning portfolios as contrasted with TRRIX's blend holdings. Again these illustrate the growth-value reversal this year.
I'll leave the remaining two funds to others.

Hasn’t been as bad a year as the headlines and talking heads on Bloomberg, etc. might lead one to believe. I posted elsewhere that both DODWX and DODFX are up double digit year to date. So is GLFOX which invests in infrastructure, mostly in Europe. The real assets category which usually includes commodities, energy, AG, real estate is also having a respectable year.
But how about less risky “run-of-the-mill” balanced / tactical allocation funds? I ran a few calculations factoring in the return YTD (M*) which represents 144 days thru Friday and projecting out what that rate of return would produce through an entire year. (No guarantees of course).
The first one, PRWCX, isn’t open to new investors, but is always interesting to watch.
PRWCX YTD: +1.91% .. Projected a full year = +4.85%
LCORX YTD: +2.84% … Projected a full year = +7.19%
DODBX YTD: +4.82% … Projected a full year = +12.25%
FKIQX YTD: +1.88% ..… Projected a full year = +4.78%
TRRIX YTD +2.55% .. .… Projected a full year = +6.46%
AOK YTD +2.45% …..… Projected a full year = +6.20%

May 24th Episode:

Bridgeway Small-Cap Value Fund’s John Montgomery has delivered positive, benchmark-beating returns over the fund’s twenty-plus-year existence with his quantitative, contrarian approach. He shares his investment philosophy, methods, and current strategy.

Unfortunately Bridgeway has not performed for investors and many have walked.
$2.9B AUM in 2018 has fallen to $1.71B AUM today.

23 May, 2025.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-23/bloomberg-real-yield-5-23-2025-video
Vonnie Quinn. Priya Misra (JPM) and Gennadiy Goldberg (TD.)
Sec. Treas. Bessent's recent remarks are unsurprisingly upbeat, almost sanguine.
Discussion about rates, duration. Will The treasury cut back on 30-year offerings?
Misra is skeptical that we can manage to grow enough to offset the huge debt, despite new income from tariffs. There's still too much uncertainty, "until we see just what are the rules of the road... or law."
'But while the yen is strengthening, U.S. yields are rising. We think this shows that the number of foreign buyers of US gummint debt is declining.' (Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos.)
EU: 2025 debt issuance = over 1T euros, quickest time ever to get to 1T. May, '25 volume= highest on record.
USA: I.G. issuance for the week led by Siemens, Citi, MCkesson, SNAM, Groupe BPCE.
Junk? Biggest month of the year, so far.
Short week, next week.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042316/000168386325004827/f42160d1.htm
497 1 f42160d1.htm FUND LIQUIDATION SUPPLEMENTS
May 23, 2025
Victory Pioneer Global Value Fund
Supplement to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus
and Statement of Additional Information
each dated March 31, 2025
The Trustees of the fund have authorized the liquidation of the fund. It is anticipated that the fund will be liquidated on or about July 25, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The fund will discontinue accepting requests from new accounts to purchase shares or process exchanges into the fund effective at the close of business on May 23, 2025. The fund will discontinue accepting requests from existing accounts to purchase shares or process exchanges into the fund effective at the close of business on July 18, 2025. Shares purchased through any dividend reinvestment and certain automatic investments will continue to be processed up to the Liquidation Date. The fund also may accept additional investments from established employer-sponsored retirement plans up to the Liquidation Date.
Prior to the fund’s liquidation, all or a substantial portion of the fund’s assets may be invested in cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. When invested in such instruments in anticipation of the liquidation, the fund may not be able to achieve its investment objectives.
Shareholders can redeem their shares of the fund at any time prior to liquidation.
Shareholders may also exchange their fund shares for shares of the same class of any other Victory Pioneer fund that offers that class, subject to any restrictions set forth under “Buying, Exchanging, and Selling Shares” in the Prospectus. Any shares of the fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be redeemed automatically as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. Any liquidating distribution due to the fund’s shareholders will be distributed by the mailing of a check to each such person at such person’s address of record.
The liquidation of the fund may result in income tax liabilities for the fund’s shareholders. The automatic redemption of the fund’s shares on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares, i.e., as a sale that may result in a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes.
If you hold fund shares through an individual retirement account, you can arrange to have such shares exchanged for shares of another Victory Pioneer fund prior to the Liquidation Date. Alternatively, if you receive a check representing your investment in the fund, it will be treated as a distribution from your individual retirement account. You may be eligible to roll over your distribution, within 60 days after you receive it, into another individual retirement account. However, rollovers are subject to certain limitations, including as to frequency. You should consult with your tax adviser concerning the tax implications of a distribution for you, your eligibility to roll over a distribution, and the procedures applicable to such rollovers.

The SEC filing may be a work in progress. While WCPNX's prospectus explicitly permits investments in unrated securities ("The Fund may invest up to 25% of its total assets in debt securities which are unrated or which are non-investment grade") the ETF's prospectus omits this ("The Core Plus Fund may invest up to 25% of its total assets in debt securities that are rated non-investment grade."_
And the ETF's SAI (which covers both the Multisector fund and the Core Plus fund) isn't clear whether investing in unrated securities is limited to the Multisector fund. Further it has verbiage about redemptions impacting sales of junk- and un-rated securities, which seems to be lifted from an OEF's SAI.
ETF's SAI:

Non-Investment Grade Securities
...
Price changes for debt securities held by a Fund will not cause changes to the Fund’s cash income from those securities, but will be reflected in the net asset value of Multisector Fund shares. Therefore, the judgment of the Adviser may at times play a greater role in valuing lower-rated or unrated securities. It also may be more difficult during times of adverse market conditions to sell lower-rated or unrated securities, whether to meet redemption requests or to respond to changes in the market.

OEF's SAI:

Preferred Stock and Debt Securities
...
Price changes for debt securities held by a Fund will not cause changes to the Fund’s cash income from those securities, but will be reflected in the net asset value of the Fund’s shares. Therefore, the judgment of Weitz Inc. may at times play a greater role in valuing lower-rated or unrated securities. It also may be more difficult during times of adverse market conditions to sell lower-rated or unrated securities, whether to meet redemption requests or to respond to changes in the market.

As to ETFs being more volatile, this relates to a post I made in another thread: looking at prices too frequently makes a fund appear more volatile. In many cases that's likely most of what you're seeing. That is, if one looks at the close-of-market prices of ETFs they are likely (nearly) as stable as those of OEFs.
All else being equal, I prefer OEFs for the absence of spread, the absence of SEC fees (de minimis), and the absence of premium/discount risk. But assuming the ETF version of Core Plus "exactly" tracks WCPNX, it is hard to argue against buying something that's 20 basis points cheaper. (To get the cheaper WCPBX, one must be able to pony up $1M.)

The Week in Charts (05/23/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:56 Topics
01:36 Goodbye Triple-A
06:42 The One, Big, Ugly Deficit
21:02 A Bond Market Revolt
29:08 The World Strikes Back
45:53 Rising Supply, Lower Home Prices
51:53 The Long Peace
Video
Blog

OHHHH
This is probably why Tariff Toddler is demanding a 50% tariff coming on all EU goods starting 1 Jun.... Greenland just did a mineral deal with the EU!
https://www.newsweek.com/greenland-trump-permit-extraction-2075673

Here is where the $17 Billion cut from the NIH and the $5 Billion cut from National Science Foundation is going
"The measure roughly doubles the current annual budgets of Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in what Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council notes is “the single biggest increase in funding to immigration enforcement in the history of the United States.” It increases ICE’s detention budget from $3.4 billion a year to $45 billion through September 2029, a staggering 365% increase on an annual basis that would permit ICE to detain at least 100,000 people at a time.
It increases ICE’s budget for transportation and removal operations by 500%, from the current $721 million to $14.4 billion. It also calls for $46.5 billion for construction of barriers at the border, including completing 701 miles of wall, 900 miles of river barriers, and 629 miles of secondary barriers, and replacement of 141 miles of vehicle and pedestrian barriers.” It calls for $45 billion for adult and family detention, enough to detain at least 100,000 people at a time."
Anyone care to compare the future value of dollars spent on scientific research vs ICE ?

Sold CMCSA for a 10% ST gain

Right on time. DJT says EU not cooperating so 50% tariff on them. And, because APPL wont build iphones in US they get 25%.
Markets down 1 to 3%.

I love tariff even MAGA leader (DT) doesn't know what it is - he said first exporting countries will pay just like cost of MAGA wall south of the border to be paid by Mexico. His MAGA followers don't either. But when Walmart came out (it's import tax, we need to pass some of it to consumers), DT wailed - WM needs to eat the cost means we share holders. But for me, Tariff costs is much less (I bought a car, all major appliances etc. in the last 6-12 months so I am set) than the tax breaks I will get from Beautiful bill (sorry Medicaid recipients). I went to Costco yesterday to buy a window AC, it was made in China, cost was same as before 30% tariff, I was in hog heaven. On China, DT blinked - tariff 145% to 30%. So we pay 30% on imports from China and China consumers only pay 10% on American imports - China got a better deal.

Thanks for the link. Pieces on the Kitces site are always worth a read. I'm planning to read it in full over the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, I see that the exec summary is already out of date:

It also creates a new type of savings account for children – Money Account for Growth and Advancement, or "MAGA" accounts – which the Federal government would automatically open and fund with $1,000 for every US citizen born from 2025 through 2028!

From CNBC:

Under the proposal, “Trump Accounts” — previously known as “Money Accounts for Growth and Advancement” or “MAGA Accounts” — can later be used for education expenses or credentials, the down payment on a first home or as capital to start a small business.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/tax-bill-maga-baby-bonus-now-called-trump-accounts-who-is-eligible.html
Here are some other last minute changes that were dropped into the bill:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/21/congress/trump-megabill-last-minute-changes-00364603