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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    The following article provides several suggestions on how to secure your retirement portfolio
    when market anxiety is high.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/market-anxiety-is-running-high-how-to-secure-your-retirement-portfolio/ar-AA1Fk9bO
    Lord, talk about covering everything
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    The approach depends on one's objectives. For day-to-day, checking account type usage (or hank's trading), IMHO only a MMF, like GABXX (7 day yield 4.30%) or VUSXX (7 day yield 4.23%), are a good match. I'm assuming a "checking usage" occurs in a taxable account where pure treasury holdings (state exempt) add value. And like bank accounts, these will not lose money (unless the underlying treasuries default).
    What to use beyond that depends on one's objective(s). If one is looking at making periodic payments within the next few months (e.g. property taxes, mortgage payments, insurance premiums, income tax estimates, etc.) then buying individual treasuries maturing at the right time look good. The treasury yield curve is flat out to six months (around 4.35%)
    If one is looking at opportunistically replenishing one's "checking" account, then looking at funds with durations up to two years (NEAR being at the outer fringe) makes sense. I'd focus more on drawdown recovery times than volatility risk. Alternatively, one might want to optimize risk/reward.
    I asked Portfolio Visualizer to do that with eight funds. Four of those were mentioned here: USFR, PULS, TBUX, NEAR. Since PV doesn't optimize cash, I substituted ICSH for a MMF. For the other three I added two floating rate non-treasury funds, FFRHX (bank loan, junk) and FLRN (IG). Finally I added CBUDX which has gotten some mention on MFO.
    PV reports that one optimizes reward/risk generally with a mix of CBUDX and FFRHX - the more risk one is willing to take, the more one adds FFRHX. It's only at the low end of risk (very low portfolio volatility) that one emphasizes USFR. And there's a narrow range of risks (volatility) of risk where ~10% in PULS helps. If it makes you feel more comfortable, an equal allocation of all eight of these funds is not far off the efficient frontier, so that works too.
    If anyone is wondering why I didn't include RPHIX, it's because the results aren't that much different from using CBUDX. Substituting RPHIX for CBUDX, the mixture graph (which funds for what volatility) is fairly unchanged. Though the max Sharpe ratio is a higher as are the returns with RPHIX.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold CMCSA for a 10% ST gain
    Nice. I’m usually happy to snatch up a quick 10% gain.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Raised portfolio cash from 10% to 15% with withdrawals from more aggressive holdings across the board. That somewhat understates actual short-term fixed income exposure because some of my ”investments” hold or attempt to replicate fixed income as well.
    Another Marvell line: “But at my back I always hear Time’s winged chariot …
  • Tariffs
    @Mona, will done.
    More tariffs consequences : Pigs can't fly: US high-end livestock breeders lose millions in China tariff fallout
    Dr. Mike Lemmon's pigs, each valued between $2,500 and $5,000, were supposed to be on a plane bound for Hangzhou, China, from St. Louis in April, where’d they spend the flight snoring, play fighting and snacking on oats and husked corn before taking up residence at Chinese hog farms.
    Instead, many went to a local Indiana slaughterhouse for less than $200 each after the Chinese buyer canceled the order within a week of China implementing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in April.
    China is one of the biggest importers of American breeding pigs and other livestock genetic material such as cattle semen. These lucrative niche export markets had been growing, but dried up since U.S. President Donald Trump started a trade war with Beijing.
    U.S. farmers and exporters said the dispute has already cost them millions of dollars and jeopardized prized trade relationships that took years to develop.
    https://msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/pigs-cant-fly-us-high-end-livestock-breeders-lose-millions-in-china-tariff-fallout/ar-AA1FgFK9
    China plays the long games since they learned from the first tariffs war. Other agricultural products are not purchased from others countries while US farmers are having hard time swelling their products at an even slim margins. Brazil replaced the bulk of soybeans imported to China today, and no tariffs treat will change that.
  • Tariffs
    based on his investing\timing, David Rosenberg’s estimated net worth is ~$100 million.
    care to compare?
  • Tariffs
    Several comments, some I said before:
    1) My system signaled a buy on April 12th (link).
    2) The tariffs are a bargaining tool; get used to it.
    3) The SP500 is down less than 1% in 2025 regardless of the politics. The SP500 made 50% in 2023-4, are you expecting another high % year in 2025?
    BTW, Europe=VGK made over 20% in 2025 and since Feb is was clear, did you use it?
    4) I'm sure Trump was shaking after he talked with Ursula von der Leyen...really?
    5) David Rosenberg is one of the "best" predictors. See examples below.
    In 10/2016 (link) "It’s ‘late in the game’ for market"
    Reality: The SP500 made 27+% to the end of 2017 (link)
    In 01/2019 (link) "A recession is virtually unavoidable this year"
    Reality: There wasn't any recession in 2019 and the SP500 was up over 31%.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." - Mike Tyson. I've always loved that quote.
    +1 / ‘07-‘09 was a great “sobriety check” for most of us.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    By "down" to the 22nd percentile I meant that PRWCX typically ranks even higher. In half the years of the past decade it was at the 10th percentile or higher.
    As of last market close (May 23), M* reports it at the 23rd percentile YTD. (It dropped 1 percentile in the day or two since I posted 22nd percentile.) I don't know where 27th percentile comes from. M* reports 23rd percentile as of May 23 and as of April 30, and 41st percentile as of March 31st.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/performance
    Lipper reports it at the 49th percentile of Mixed Asset Multi-Target Growth funds. The page linked to below doesn't give an "as of" date (at least I don't see it). But given that its YTD figure is reported to be 1.91%, the same as M* reports for May 23 ("today"), I figure that is through last market close.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/prwcx
    A lot depends upon how your peers are chosen (mixed asset growth or moderate allocation). One category uses a narrow band on style (growth) but a wide band on stock/bond allocation. The other category uses a narrow band on allocation (moderate) but a wide band on style (growth/value).
    As popular funds grow, they do tend to shift - upward in market cap and maybe to a different type. FLPSX started out as a small cap fund. It added capacity by moving into mid cap and adding more foreign holdings (it's now classified as a global fund). VPMCX started as a mid cap growth, moved to large cap growth and is now in large cap blend. Such funds are not necessarily worse than they used to be, but they are somewhat changed. Perhaps that's why you (@hank) sold?
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    Are you in a state with tax free treasury dividends? If so then I would look at VUSXX, GABXX. FRSXX and other similiars. If not ,other ultra short term funds to look at are ICSH, PULS in addition to TBUX. They each have different durations and credit qualities for which you would have to determine is best for your situation. I use USFR, GABXX, TBUX and PULS in the ultrashort sleeve. NEAR which I also own is of longer duration , ie 1.97 years and will of course be more volatile than the others. Good luck with your choice or choices.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    PRWCX 2025 Percentile Rank is at 27% = far from the bottom.
    3-5-10-15 years Percentile Rank at 8-4-1-1
    My portfolio is different = my system
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    Trying to simplify a previously rambling post -
    I realize short-term Treasuries, FDIC / government insured deposits and money market funds lead the list of options in terms of safety and liquidity. That said, are there other options you are comfortable with within the context of a broadly diversified portfolio?
    JAAA? I think many misunderstand CLOs, conflating them with CDOs which did play a big part in the 2007-09 financial crisis / market crash. That by no means says they’re even close to cash for safety. M* interestingly assesses JAAA bond quality at 100% AAA! That’s unfortunate. We all know AAA rated CLO pools of debt can include lower-rated bonds.
    NEAR? Right now I have a significant position in NEAR. I’m thinking it should outdistance cash by a percent or two over 3-year periods (+ -), albeit with a slightly bumpier ride. The credit quality is very high. Might even gain during an equity “rout”, having some duration and very high credit quality.
    I’m ambiguous re TBUX (a cousin of longer running TRBUX). Take a look at credit quality. It holds a significant amount of BBB rated credit (38+%) - just one step above junk status. However, duration is extremely short. I held a lot of TRBUX when I was with TRP and preferred it to cash. TRBUX took quite a hit in March ‘20 at the beginning of the Covid crisis due to global liquidity issues. Quickly, the Fed stepped in to back investment grade corporates and everything recovered nicely.
    VNLA? Longer duration than TBUX. But shorter than NEAR. Investment grade corporate bonds mostly. I thought M* did a nice job dissecting the moving parts including a (well respected) new manager who’s from Australia and recently moved to California to run the fund. Very high credit quality, but lower than NEAR. Janus Henderson has a number of short to moderate duration fixed income offerings and all seem highly regarded.
    ** Not seeking specific investment advice or looking for 1 “right” answer. Would enjoy hearing different people’s takes on one or more ot the options laid out with the goal of arriving at a better understanding of risk / reward across the board.
    Thanks to all who responded / may respond ….
  • lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs
    DIVO has a different covered-call strategy. It has a concentrated equity portfolio and writes calls only on a handful of holdings. JEPI on the other hand uses SP500 index for call-writing.
    DIVO has a slightly higher volatility (Relative SD 0.6861) but also does little better.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    @msf offered this perspective in another thread:
    “PRWCX is having one of its poorest performances relative to peers, all the way "down" to the 22nd percentile. Typically growth leaning, it has moved solidly into blend (37% of portfolio is LCBl) suggesting that Giroux also sees the markets moving toward value. (It is also open to investors who have at least $250K total invested at TRP.)”

    As one who owned PRWCX almost from inception (1986) until I sold 2 or 3 years ago I’ve witnessed several different managers at the helm, a staggering growth of AUM and changes in how the fund positions itself (away from mid-cap and niche holdings). It’s a heavyweight now. Giroux speaks in terms of a 3-year time horizon and isn’t afraid to hold cash when he thinks equities are pricy. If past is prologue, the fund will again head to the front of the pack sometime during the 2 or 3 years. As always, I’m skeptical.
    If you go back to the January Barron’sRoundtable” 2 or 3 years ago (either 2022 or 2023) you will find Giroux was quite far off on his interest rate outlook - insisting rather stridently at the time that the 10-year Treasury would not finish the year above 3%. It finished quite a bit higher that year. Today it’s at 4.518%
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    Peeking at PRWCX's bond holdings - the top 4 are three UST Notes (5 yr) and a UST Bond (10 yr), followed by bank debt, corporates and other HY. But it appears that the fund has stayed away from Longer term debt.
    Didn't realize how many call options this fund holds.
  • Changes to Social Security Payment Schedule Will Affect Millions in May
    @Crash, correct, at least for me as well. What I didn't know is that there was a group of recipients receiving their SS checks on the 3rd day of the month and another receiving SSI payments on the 1st. I also didn't know if there's another group of recipients who get their SS checks on days other than those outlined in the article. (and hence the reason for the original OP)
  • ‘Absolute tsunami’ of ETFs to hit market
    From this weekend’s WSJ
    Investors continue to pile into ETFs at record pace
    (If you’re not into sports betting at DraftKings, these products are the next best thing.)