AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/17/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (52.7%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (23.4%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (23.8%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was +29.3% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (125+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (40+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth down, cyclicals up), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 76.32% (overbought). US market broadening or rotation has started. Republican ticket is set; Democratic ticket has clouds over it. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1558/thread

+1000

1 yr total return: BOXX 5.34%; USFR 5.55%

Follow-up links:
https://hedgenordic.com/2024/07/bridging-futures-nci-and-crossingbridge-partner-up/
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-asset-manager-crossingbridge-advisors-llc-enters-into-a-strategic-partnership-with-nci-advisory-as-a-nordic-debt-asset-manager-302186074.html

I'll try.
If it's OK with you, I'll expand a little bit for now. since the business press is crediting both candidates for crunching chips today.
Where rates are in the near term will account for near-term market behavior.
Seems to me that both sides are pushing for an end to free-market globalization as we knew it--if we were paying attention--in the 1980's. I look at funds leaning industrial.
Trump's interest in a tariff regime is certainly fascinating for this amateur student of American history. Tariff policies were something American political parties aligned themselves around from the beginning of the Republic until the end of Smoot Hawley.
Who can forget the Tariff of Abominations and the Nullification Crisis?
I don't know that the other side has even begun to think about what they want besides a more benign interest-rate environment and being in favor of green re-shoring.
Seems to me both sides are in favor of a more benign interest-rate environment come hell or high water. Since I grew up on the ass-end of the Baby Boom, color me skeptical how that will work out. I'm staying on the short side of bonds.

How is the above possible when you don't know what the sale proceeds will be(or even that the sale will actually go through) or do you do a conservative estimate and sweep up the remaining next day?

Well, pretty easy. Suppose you own US LC, before closing, they were down 1.3%.
If I sell $500K, I deduct 5% (for me it's 3%, I never made a mistake), and enter a buy order for $475K. The next day, I do the rest.
BTW, most of my money is in IRA. Fidelity will not let you execute a buy order for the sell proceeds at all. You must call a rep, many times I argued with them, and they can enter a 90% buy, even if you sold a bond fund. I deal mostly with bond funds with min change, and why I buy at 99% on the Schwab site instead of wasting time and energy.
90% is a Fidelity invention I haven't seen in any other broker. Sometimes they lie and say it is a SEC rule.
I'm not paying RIA a penny :-)

7/17/24 Looks like profit taking today for Tech and a few others. Utilities I have were on both sides of the trades. Energy positive while Industrials negative. Lost all gains of yesterday and then some.

@Observant1
Was the Amica quote for a dividend-paying or non-dividend policy?
We have dividend-paying policies with Amica - the cost is higher upfront but after our 20% dividend for auto/umbrella and 25% for homeowners, our bottom line is lower than any other company.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/07/16/what-trump-told-bloomberg-businessweek-about-plans-for-his-second-term/
(Please refrain from political and social commentary and more importantly please refrain from calling each other names.)
This thread is meant to discuss only Trump economic policies as pertaining to investing.
For example, if he is advocating no rate cuts prior to elections, what implications does delaying rate cuts can have on our investments? If the Fed cuts rates before the elections, and as a consequence if Trump forces Jerome Powell to resign soon after getting elected, what implications does that Trump action can have on our investments?

A disturbing update.
Nonbank fintech apps Yotta and Juno provided customers false or misleading assurances that their money was safe with FDIC insurance. Synapse handled that money as intermediary between Yotta, Juno and the FDIC insured banks (Evolve, etc). But now lot of that money is missing or unaccounted for and the depositors are stuck. As bankrupt Synapse did customers’ recordkeeping, the only party that the banks knew was Synapse, and whatever money it deposited with the banks, that is FDIC insured up to institutional pass-through limit. Evolve was under a Fed watch and was in the process of winding down its relationship with Synapse. So, there was some additional transitional money that Synapse was looking a banking home for; it probably kept this money temporarily in its corporate accounts, but those are now subject to the claims of its creditors. The failure of an intermediary (e.g. Synapse) isn’t covered by FDIC.
Other nonbank fintech mentioned are Chime and Current.
Open BNN link https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/07/16/a-fintechs-collapse-raises-questions-about-a-hot-business-model/
Ken Tumin X/Twitter https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1813643189032828998

@FD1000
"Even if I sell a fund into cash, I buy into MM fund immediately = same day settlement"
How is the above possible when you don't know what the sale proceeds will be(or even that the sale will actually go through) or do you do a conservative estimate and sweep up the remaining next day?
Cash drag in Schwab isn't a thing for active traders like you but I'm not in the account daily so for me cash drag costs start adding up because I have multiple Treasuries spread out over multiple accounts with varying maturities so at times it could easily be a week of my matured Treasury earning squat or near squat at Schwab vs. automatically earning a solid rate at Fidelity.
I've never been a day trader but many years back I was "active" (5-10 trades a month). Going by memory but I would not touch Schwab for any level of active trading. Both web and mobile apps are significantly less stable than Fidelity.
All of my transfers have been electronic and for every single one of them I've had to follow up with Schwab reps multiple times to actually get it done and done right.
The necessity of doing a 2nd MM transaction to either avoid margin or cash drag for every single buy/sell is a major turn off for me -- basically double the work for no additional benefit compared to Fidelity.
Fidelity's major flaw is the wire transfer form when FFC is needed -- that thing is a radioactive disaster.
Your point about Schwab allowing you to invest in I Class shares is interesting. No limits or account minimums at all? I can invest in most I Class shares at low to no minimums but that is due to my RIA.
To each their own!

Schwab relies very heavily on uninvested cash from customers -- don't know why there is confusion around this. Not offering auto sweeps into a MM fund like Fidelity and Vanguard is not due to Schwab being lazy, it is central to Schwab's strategy. Also Schwab MMF settles T+1 unlike Fidelity MMF which settles same day so another opportunity for Schwab to extract rent. Schwab strategy succeeds for the exact same reason that the large banks can get away with offering laughably low rates on savings account -- sloth behavior from customers.
I find Schwab customer reps generally more friendly than Fidelity but Schwab sucks in efficiency compared to Fidelity. I'd happily move to Fidelity if my RIA supported them. I did 4 account transfers into Schwab and they found a way to screw up/significantly delay all 4. That takes a special talent. Today I called Schwab to check on the status of an IRA transfer for which I submitted the paperwork more than 2 weeks back. Radio silence from Schwab even after a Message Center follow up. Not even a simple "Yea we got it, give us X days". Funny thing is that Fidelity as the releasing institution sent me an automated mail (very unusual) acknowledging the request.

As I explained before, T+1, isn't a problem. I hardly ever have cash, unless risk is very high. I always sell a fund and buy another, no MM. Even if I sell a fund into cash, I buy into MM fund immediately = same day settlement.
"I did 4 account transfers into Schwab and they found a way to screw up"
I transfer probably at least 20 times, never screw up. Several friends and relatives I sent to Schwab have done transfers; all had zero problems.
I have done transfers online (no paperwork) for years now.
Customer service at Fidelity is far better than Schwab. Fidelity reps used to be good, but in the last 3–5 years, the service has deteriorated.
MSF post several things that take more time or don't exist.
Well, I'm a trader for about 25 years. No single bond, stocks. No CD or treasuries. No sophisticated pro trade software. It's all mutual funds/ETF and rarely trading CEFs very short time.
Schwab site is better and easier. If I need to trade and look at other things which is rare, I open another session, as I do with other sites. That's why I have a 24" screen. I also trade on my cell if I need to, but usually I don't.
I like speedy update, Fidelity updates are behind. The most irritating is end of month distributions. I see them at Schwab already at 8-9 PM on the same day, it takes Fidelity another day, sometimes 2 days.
For me, as a fund trader, Fidelity is the worst, and I have been in several shops, they will not wave the commissions on Inst shares, all the others did many of them.

@msf
With Schwab, if I purchase a new position I have to sell SWVXX the same day because SWVXX will settle next day.
With Fidelity(my understanding) is that the MMF will auto trade and settle next day to cover the prior day purchase therefore MMF position earns interest for an additional day in a Fidelity MMF vs. a Schwab MMF wrt purchase of any instrument that settles T+1.
At my individual level, the interest loss between Schwab and Fidelity isn't much but in the aggregate this is a pretty big deal for Schwab hence why Schwab does it different than Vanguard and Fidelity. It adds friction because I have to manually do a 2nd MMF trade to cover a buy. The friction has no benefit to me ergo it only benefits Schwab.

Is that a BULL I see under the tree !

That's Ferdinand, as drawn by Robert Lawson. The line that goes with the picture is "He is very happy."
A quick read can be found at this link. I guess it's out out of copyright.

Tuesday I went to move money from Taxable to checking at Schwab. During transfer, up pops margin loan ,as not enough cash in taxable account. So I cancel transfer & put in to sell 1100 shares of the mutual fund. Wednesday morning checking account shows transfer of $1100 or shares of the MMMF. How did that happen ? I guess they assumed I still wanted to move the money to checking instead of investing it elsewhere !

Also Schwab MMF settles T+1 unlike Fidelity MMF which settles same day so another opportunity for Schwab to extract rent.
Well, sort of. Fidelity requires the purchase money to be available same day, which is the definition of "same day" settlement. But you don't start earning money in the new MMF account until the next day. And isn't that really what we care about here?
Here's an excerpt of a post by a Fidelity moderator on a Reddit thread:

Settlement for money market funds is generally same day. For anyone unfamiliar, the settlement date is the day on which payment for securities bought, or certificates for securities sold, must be in your account.
...
When you purchase a Fidelity mutual fund, they begin earning dividends or interest on the first business day after the effective purchase or trade date, including money market funds. The core position is the exception to this, as the core begins accruing interest once funds are posted after a deposit

https://www.reddit.com/r/fidelityinvestments/comments/159dtyj/settlement_time_for_money_market_fund_investments/
Contrast that with "true" T+0 MMF settlement. I purchased a Fidelity MMF at Merrill on June 28th (last trading day of the month). Had it started earning money the first business day (July 1) after the trade date, then I would have earned no divs in June. Yet I was credited with earnings for the month. The activity log reads: "PAY DATE 06/28/2024".
Here's an excerpt from the FZDXX prospectus - a higher yielding MMF available in a Fidelity retail account:

Shares purchased by all other orders generally begin to earn dividends on the first business day following the day of purchase.

Here's an excerpt from the FSIXX prospectus, another Fidelity MMF, one that is available to retail customers at Merrill:

Shares purchased by a wire order prior to 12:00 noon Eastern time for Tax-Exempt Portfolio, prior to 2:00 p.m. Eastern time for Treasury Only Portfolio, or prior to 5:00 p.m. Eastern time for Government Portfolio, Money Market Portfolio, and Treasury Portfolio, with receipt of the wire in proper form before the close of the Federal Reserve Wire System on that day, generally begin to earn dividends on the day of purchase.

BTW, Merrill sets an 11:45AM settlement time for FSIXX in order to get same day settlement. (If logged into Merrill, see here.) I guess it takes a little time to get the money wired to Fidelity.
FSIXX is a treasury only (state tax-exempt) MMF currently (as of July 16) offering a higher 7 day yield (5.18%) than does FZDXX (5.15%).

NYU law professor Daniel Hemel digs deep into the mechanics of the ETF BOXX and the fuzzy areas of tax laws (sections 1258 and 1092) that its tax deferral claims to exploits. He thinks that eventually there would be an IRS clarification or challenge that would negate much of the tax angle of BOXX. So, the play may really be whether the holders of BOXX will be grandfathered.
All this fancy footwork just to create money-market or T-Bill returns? But investors love new black-boxes.
https://www.taxnotes.com/featured-analysis/tax-trap-inside-boxx/2024/03/08/7j8x0

Today I received Vanguard Letter's # 4 & 5 =
telling me they have updated my Old email address = clint4021@aol.com
to New email address = clint4021@aol.com
YES FIVE LETTERS !!!!
I HOPE VANG.
NEW PRESIDENT WILL KICK SOME BUTT & AND FINIALLY PUT VANG BACK TO THIER FORMER COMPETANCE.
Ralph Etris

Schwab relies very heavily on uninvested cash from customers -- don't know why there is confusion around this. Not offering auto sweeps into a MM fund like Fidelity and Vanguard is not due to Schwab being lazy, it is central to Schwab's strategy. Also Schwab MMF settles T+1 unlike Fidelity MMF which settles same day so another opportunity for Schwab to extract rent. Schwab strategy succeeds for the exact same reason that the large banks can get away with offering laughably low rates on savings account -- sloth behavior from customers.
I find Schwab customer reps generally more friendly than Fidelity but Schwab sucks in efficiency compared to Fidelity. I'd happily move to Fidelity if my RIA supported them. I did 4 account transfers into Schwab and they found a way to screw up/significantly delay all 4. That takes a special talent. Today I called Schwab to check on the status of an IRA transfer for which I submitted the paperwork more than 2 weeks back. Radio silence from Schwab even after a Message Center follow up. Not even a simple "Yea we got it, give us X days". Funny thing is that Fidelity as the releasing institution sent me an automated mail (very unusual) acknowledging the request.

I think I'll just sit and wait for a bit. The muni's should gather a nice price increase while kicking off a fairly respectable taxable equivalent yield.