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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Email received from M*
    A T. Rowe Price investment account balance of $250k or more gives you a free account at Morningstar Investor and access to otherwise closed TRP funds.
    Thanks, yes. They had grandfathered me in, when they raised the threshold to $250k from $100k. Now I'm gone, but still connected via my colleague's account, which I have been babysitting since 2010. He's nowhere near $250k, but in 2010, $250k was not the bar that had to be reached. Morningstar has simply arbitrarily cut off people like myself. It's their company, after all. I can get most of what M* offered after logging into Portfolio Checkup at Schwab.
  • Value Investing
    I never invested based on inflows because they are not reliable.
    Since 2000, I only used relative strength + the best risk/reward funds within leading wide range categories + only several funds.
    It takes several years to practice it and get better. This way you can't be too long in lagging categories.
    US LC tilting growth were the leaders suring 1995-2000 + 2010-24 = about 25 years
    Value, international, and SC during 01/2000 to 01/2010 while SPY+QQQ lost in that period =10 years.
  • Trump wins temporary reprieve as he fights against court block on tariffs
    Following are excerpts from a current report from The Guardian:
    Appeal judges grant stay as officials blame ‘activist judges’ for dealing major blow against signature policy
    The Trump administration is racing to halt a major blow to the president’s sweeping tariffs after a US court ruled they “exceed any authority granted to the president.” A US trade court ruled the US president’s tariffs regime was illegal on Wednesday in a dramatic twist that could block Trump’s controversial global trade policy.
    On Thursday, an appeals court agreed to a temporary pause in the decision pending an appeal hearing. The Trump administration is expected to take the case to the supreme court if it loses. The ruling by a three-judge panel at the New York-based court of international trade came after several lawsuits argued Trump had exceeded his authority, leaving US trade policy dependent on his whims and unleashing economic chaos around the world.
    On Thursday, the Trump administration filed for “emergency relief” from the ruling “to avoid the irreparable national-security and economic harms at stake”. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the judges had “brazenly abused their judicial power to usurp the authority of President Trump” in what she characterised as a pattern of judicial overreach. “Ultimately the supreme court must put an end to this,” she said.
    Leavitt’s comments came as a second judge, Washington DC district court judge Rudolph Contreras, called the tariffs “unlawful” and ordered a preliminary injunction on the collection of tariffs from a pair of Illinois toy importers, which brought the case. Tariffs typically need to be approved by Congress but Trump has so far bypassed that requirement by claiming that the country’s trade deficits amount to a national emergency. This had left the US president able to apply sweeping tariffs to most countries last month, in a shock move that sent markets reeling.
    The court’s ruling stated that Trump’s tariff orders “exceed any authority granted to the president … to regulate importation by means of tariffs”. The judges were keen to state that they were not passing judgment on the “wisdom or likely effectiveness of the president’s use of tariffs as leverage”. Instead, their ruling centered on whether the trade levies had been legally applied in the first place. Their use was “impermissible not because it is unwise or ineffective, but because [federal law] does not allow it”, the decision explained.
    Financial markets cheered the court’s ruling, with the US dollar rallying in its wake, soaring against the euro, yen and Swiss franc. In Europe, the German Dax rallied 0.9%, while France’s Cac 40 rose 1%. The UK’s FTSE 100 blue-chip index ticked up 0.1% at the start of trading. Stocks in Asia also climbed on Thursday, while in the US stock markets all rose marginally.
    The court ruling immediately invalidated all of the tariff orders that were issued through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law meant to address “unusual and extraordinary” threats during a national emergency. The judges said Trump must issue new orders reflecting the permanent injunction within 10 days.
    The ruling, if it stands, blows a giant hole through Trump’s strategy to use steep tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners, draw manufacturing jobs back to US shores and shrink a $1.2tn (£892bn) US goods trade deficit, which were among his key campaign promises. Without the help of the IEEPA, the Trump administration would have to take a slower approach, launching lengthier trade investigations and abiding by other trade laws to back the tariff threats.
    The decision is also likely to embolden other challenges to Trump’s policy. Last month, California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, filed a lawsuit against the tariffs, arguing they were “illegal, full stop”. The court was not asked to address some industry-specific tariffs Trump has issued on automobiles, steel and aluminium, using a different statute, so these are likely to remain in place for now.
    Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy, hit out at the ruling in a social media post claiming “the judicial coup is out of control”.
    At least seven lawsuits have challenged Trump’s border taxes, the centerpiece of Trump’s trade policy. The court made its ruling in response to two cases. One was filed by a group of small businesses, including a wine importer, VOS Selections, whose owner said the tariffs were having a major impact and his company may not survive.
    The plaintiffs in the tariff lawsuit argued that the emergency powers law did not give the president the power to apply tariffs, and even if it had done, the trade deficit did not qualify as an emergency, which is defined as an “unusual and extraordinary threat”. The US has run a trade deficit with the rest of the world for 49 consecutive years.
  • Value Investing
    No need to guess.
    YTD tells the story. As of yesterday:
    SPY,QQQ,VTV(value) 0.9% to 1.7%
    PDI(CEF), VTRIX (international value), VXUS(international), VGK(Europe) = 6.9%, 11.6% 14.9%, 21.3%
    Inter leads Value Inter, and Europe leads all.
    The above is known since 02/2025. Just use a chart and you can see the leaders.
    Just remember that for several years, and sometimes since 2010-12, several "experts" told us almost every year...that this year international and EM would be better.
    Arnott told us that in 2009.
    GMO told us that in 2010.
    The founder of PE10, Prof Shiller, told us that in 2012.
    It's all documented (here).
  • Federal Reserve issues rare statement asserting independence amid Trump pressure
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Central bank emphasizes nonpartisan role in brief memo after chair Jerome Powell meets with US president
    The Federal Reserve issued a rare, strongly worded statement on Thursday after chair Jerome Powell spoke with Donald Trump at the White House Thursday morning, holding firm on the central bank’s independence amid pressure from Trump to lower interest rates. The three-paragraph statement emphasized the Fed’s independent, nonpartisan role in setting monetary policy based on economic data.
    “Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook,” the statement read.
    Powell told Trump that he and other Fed officials “will set monetary policy, as required by law, to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis,” according to the statement. That the Fed, which tends to be extremely reserved with public statements, issued the brief memo shows that officials are aware of Trump’s pressure campaign and are standing firm on the Fed’s independence.
    At Thursday’s White House press briefing, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the Fed’s statement is “correct” but that Trump “did say that the Fed chair is making a mistake by not lowering rates”. Historically, presidents show deference to the Fed, respecting the central bank’s independence. But over the last few months, Trump has tried to publicly pressure Powell to lower interest rates, as the Fed did last year, though officials say that the economy – thrown into a tailspin from Trump’s trade war – has become too unstable to continue lowering rates.
    Powell, who was appointed during Trump’s first term in 2018, has resisted the pressure from Trump and has warned that high tariffs could lead to inflation and, earlier in May, said that officials are “in no hurry” to cut interest rates – all statements that seem to have put Trump on edge.
    “‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue,” Trump wrote after the Fed’s meeting.
    Trump had previously threatened to fire Powell, though it’s unclear whether the president has the power to do so. Last week, the supreme court allowed Trump to follow through on his dismissal of officials on the National Labor Relations Board, the panel that oversees labor disputes, but judges noted that the Federal Reserve is a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity” – implying that it likely won’t be so easy for Trump to get rid of Powell.
  • Value Investing
    The S&P 500 is currently tilted more towards growth than value.
    The predominance of the Magnificent 7 stocks has been a large influence in recent years.
    I don't how the S&P 500 has been balanced between growth and value stocks historically.
    Institutions (e.g., S&P, Morningstar) may have different criteria for defining growth/value stocks.
    Edit/Add: VOO had over $150 billion of inflows since the start of 2024.
    This ETf hasn't had a monthly outflow since 2022.
    Data reported by M* in early April of this year.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 4/30/25
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 4/30/25
    Minor shifts into stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $38.52 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $385.2 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.51%, Hybrids 4.20%, Bonds 18.28%, M-Mkt 18.00%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2011/thread
  • Value Investing
    The U.S. stock market has been dominated by technology themes for years.
    Foreign stock markets were much less influenced by technology.
    Value outperformed growth internationally with financials and energy as key contributors.
    "Ultimately, I agree with Dan Rasmussen that the triumph of growth over value in the US has more to do with 'historically unique and rare circumstances.' As Rasmussen pointed out: 'The US has been through an innovation wave ... where these large-cap tech companies have so dramatically performed in terms of their fundamentals such as to be in the top 1% of the historical sample in terms of growth rates of earnings and profits and revenue, and to have done that on such a massive scale was unprecedented.'”
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/why-value-investing-has-worked-better-outside-us
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    US Constitution 1.8.2 provides the power to issue debt to Congress. That literally meant that each Treasury debt issuance had to go through Congress. That was OK early on, but to simplify matters later, Congress DELEGATED the power to issue debt to Treasury, but created the debt-ceiling mechanism to keep a leash on Treasury.
    Well, now that debt-ceiling fiasco is a regular drama in DC.
    https://www.senate.gov/about/origins-foundations/senate-and-constitution/constitution.htm
    Section 8
    The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
    To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;
    To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;
    To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;
    To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;
    To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;
    To establish Post Offices and post Roads;
    To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;
    To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;
    To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;
    To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
    To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;
    To provide and maintain a Navy;
    To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;
    To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;
    To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;
    To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;—And
    To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.
  • Calamos Dividend Growth fund being reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000110465925054053/tm2516124d2_497.htm
    497 1 tm2516124d2_497.htm 497
    CALAMOS INVESTMENT TRUST
    Calamos Dividend Growth Fund
    Supplement dated May 29, 2025 to the CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS
    Prospectus dated February 28, 2025, as supplemented and related Summary Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2025
    On April 11, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Calamos Investment Trust approved a proposal to reorganize Calamos Dividend Growth Fund with and into Calamos Growth and Income Fund (the “Reorganization”):
    Disappearing Fund--------------------------------------------------------------->Acquiring Fund
    Calamos Dividend Growth Fund (a series of Calamos Investment Trust)--->Calamos Growth and Income Fund
    (a series of Calamos Investment Trust)
    The proposed Reorganization is subject to approval by the shareholders of the Disappearing Fund. A proxy statement/prospectus detailing the proposed Reorganization is expected to be mailed to the Disappearing Fund’s shareholders on or about July 3, 2025, and a shareholder meeting is scheduled to be held on or about August 19, 2025. If shareholder approval of the proposed Reorganization is obtained, it is expected that the proposed Reorganization will take place at the close of business on or about August 22, 2025 (the “Closing Date”).
    Under the terms of the proposed Plan of Reorganization, the Disappearing Fund will transfer all of its assets to the Acquiring Fund in exchange solely for shares of the corresponding class of the Acquiring Fund and the assumption by the Acquiring Fund of all of the liabilities of the Disappearing Fund in complete liquidation and termination of the Disappearing Fund. Shares of each class of the Acquiring Fund will be distributed proportionately to shareholders of the relevant class of the Disappearing Fund. Following the Reorganization, the Disappearing Fund’s shareholders will hold shares of the Acquiring Fund.
    The Reorganization is expected to be a tax-free reorganization for U.S. federal income tax purposes.
    For more information regarding the Reorganization or the Acquiring Fund, please contact (800) 582-6959 or your financial professional.
    This supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus noted above and
    should be attached to the Prospectus and retained for future reference.
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    ” … probably be satisfied if Congress simply delegated their tariff power to the President.”
    Perhaps initially. But there’s a larger issue of whether Congress can constitutionally delegate away to another branch of government an authority they are granted under the Constitution. Could Congress, for instance, delegate their Constitutional powers to impeach high officials or declare war to the executive branch? Could they delegated their power to levy and collect taxes to the judiciary?
    From the Constitution Article I, Section 8, Clause 1 : "The Congress shall have Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States”.
    This will end up in the S.C. We’re in for some really interesting judicial proceedings, outcomes, precedents over the next couple years. I had trouble with Peter Navarro’s comments on BB this morning that the courts are engaged in a systematic “attack on the American people” along with his assertion that we are presently in the midst of a “national emergency” because China has (allegedly) killed millions of Americans in recent years through some technological bio attack (Covid I guess).
    The impact on markets? After a hot start in the early morning, major U.S. markets recoiled and are up only slightly. Gold, which first fell on the news last evening, is now positive on the day by nearly 2%.
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    He got irritated when a reporter asked him about the TACO trade.
    He got irritated at the reporter. "Six month ago, this country was stone cold dead. We had a dead country. We had a country people didn't think it was going to survive. And you ask a nasty question like that."
    image
    Alternative facts, I guess.
    One can attribute the 1Q25 dip in GDP to a distortion due to tariffs - businesses rapidly importing products to beat the tariffs. But then one would also need to acknowledge a likely dearth of products and commensurate inflation going forward.
    Now that tariffs are, at least partially and for the moment, off the table, are domestic distributors overstocked and more generally what do people expect of prices over the next few weeks if not months?
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    Next major distraction he already has planned: pardon the Michigan kidnapers. They were just bragging about 16 billion in tariffs, I just read they may have to pay 14 billion back if this court order sticks.
  • F/m Compoundr - Income ETFs w/o Distributions
    How would you like an income etf that doesn't make distributes?
    F/m Compoundr ETFs are funds of similar income ETFs. But they will sell an etf just before its ex-div date and buy another similar etf. So, the dividends will remain in the NAV. This is repeated as long as practical.
    New etf filing.
    From LinkedIn
    https://www.nadig.com/p/actual-etf-innovation-fms-compoundr
  • VistaShares ETFs in registration
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1722388/000199937125006776/vistashares-485apos_052825.htm#vistashares485aposa007
    VistaShares Pershing Square Select ETF
    VistaShares Target 15 Pershing Square Select Income ETF
    VistaShares Scion Asset Management Select ETF
    VistaShares Target 15 Scion Asset Management Select Income ETF
    VistaShares Duquesne Select ETF
    VistaShares Target 15 Duquesne Select Income ETF
    VistaShares Berkshire Select ETF
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/28/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/28/25
    BEARISH became the top sentiment (41.9%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.2%, below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.9%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -9.0% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (170+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+9 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 62.09% (positive). The Federal Trade Court ruled that executive orders on tariffs exceeded presidential authority; the matter is under appeal. Other tariff news was for EU & China. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2010/thread
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    At JD_co. You nailed it. How bout two wars at once. As the navy sets a blockade around Greenland the Army is massing troops in Detroit,,, preparing to cross the Ambassador Bridge into Windsor, Ontario. This will be the most troops in
    my hometown since the 82nd airborne Division invaded Detroit in 1967. “Should be wild” the moron famously said.
  • Tariffs
    At LarryB. Your 12:11 pm post about the TACO trade is already outdated.
  • Tariffs

    woe be the group getting between trump and his 1-on-1 tariff reduction bribes.
    now he has to fall back on a few hundred other grifts :
    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-trump-family-presidency-wealth/