Hi folks,
Just looking for your goodly wisdom. I'm retired and have a middle six figure 457 account (state gov't) that I just rolled into an IRA at Price (brokerage account). Took care of it online and over the phone in about an hour. Check's in the mail to me to forward. And yes, it's made out to them in my name.
I wee bit of background. 66 and retired. Active investor for 30 years (e. g. I was buying with my retirement account on Black Friday; I moved all the cash and bonds in both my wife and my retirement accounts into equities when the first Gulf War broke out; I went bullish on gold and silver in 2002 and hit my first homerun with Silver Weaton SLW.) Note that I am a momentum investor as compared to buy & hold.
I've got a DB pension and social security, no debt and wifey is about the same.
Some of this IRA I plan to spend wantonly and with great abandon. Some I plan to leave to my estate. Some I'll play with for giggles. What I need to do is to protect and safeguard the majority while covering myself against most economic probabilities. If we start with the traditional allocation it would be something like 34/56/10 - equities, bonds, cash. If I include a speculation fund, let's call it 30/50/10/10.
What percentage of int'l in each category?
What equity funds to consider?
What bond funds to consider?
What external funds to consider? (i.e. this is a Brokerage account so I could buy a Matthews Asian fund if I wanted).
Any and all suggestions are most welcome.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

Howdy @Ted
You noted: ", 2014 will be another year for equities, not bonds."
I hope you are corrrect about the equity area; as that will help the other 50%.
You are much more prescient than I in these matters. I'm sure we'll both be satisfied with our risk adjusted investments.
Lastly, I now recall your note from a few weeks ago regarding a +25% for SPY this year; if my recall is correct. My fingers are crossed for the best.
Hey, take care.
Catch

This year VNQ was a winner. Lost 2% during last downturn and gained 15% YTD.
However long term VNQ and generally REIT funds underperform SPY.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156906/000119312514373975/d804455d497.htm
497 1 d804455d497.htm CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TRUST
Causeway International Opportunities Fund
Institutional Class (CIOIX)
Investor Class (CIOVX)
SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 16, 2014
TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED OCTOBER 15, 2014
THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
On October 15, 2014, the Causeway International Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”) converted from a “fund of funds” to a Fund making direct investments in securities. Effective as of the date hereof, the seventh paragraph under “Taxes” in the Prospectus is superseded and replaced in its entirety with:
If you buy shares when the Fund has earned or realized, but not yet distributed, ordinary income or net capital gains, you will be “buying a dividend” by paying the full price of the shares and then receiving a portion of the price back in the form of a taxable distribution. You can avoid this situation by waiting to invest until after the record date for the distribution. The Fund expects to pay significantly increased taxable distributions of net short-term capital gain (that is, the excess of short-term capital gains over short-term capital losses) and net capital gain (that is, the excess of net long-term capital gain over net short-term capital loss) in 2014 due to its conversion on October 15, 2014 from a “fund of funds” structure to directly investing in portfolio securities. This is because when it converted, the Fund redeemed shares in underlying Causeway Funds that had appreciated from the time the Fund purchased the shares, causing the Fund to realize capital gain during 2014. Taxable investors receiving the distributions should be prepared to pay taxes on them (at ordinary income rates for the net short-term capital gain and, for non-corporate shareholders, at the 15% and 20% maximum rates mentioned above for the net capital gain). However, if you are investing in the Fund through a tax-advantaged retirement plan or account, or are a tax-exempt investor, there will be no tax consequences to you from those distributions.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
CCM-SK-022-0100

Low volatility-focused funds are fairly good at preservation in a downturn, although they typically won't win much of anything in an upmarket. For one month, which pretty much captures the downturn since Sept. 18:
VFIAX (Vanguard's S&P 500 index): -6.0
SPLV: -1.7
USMV: -2.5
Those returns basically go with the territory, as there's quite a bit of overlap between low volatility and defensive (utilities and consumer staples, for example).
Fyi, Vanguard has a new global 'minimum volatility' open-end fund, VMVFX, which ranks in the top 1% of world stock funds for the downturn (1 month) and top 5% year-to-date.
Of course it's a new fund, and your mileage may vary -

Let's not compress everything into one lousy week. For instance, YTD:
WAFMX: +4.8%
RHYPX: +1.8%
RSIVX: +4.2%
GASFX: +10.7%
LSBRX: +4.2%
AMHIX: +13.2%
ACMVX: +4.5%
PRBLX: +2.9%
Figures are from yesterday, for the most part.
Those are some of mine that are doing OK, and yes, I have another whole bunch that aren't.

Thanks. What is confusing me is that there are solid bubbles smaller than some hollow bubbles. I guess the 50 day average varies over time.

My better stock funds, 1 week returns as of Oct 15
ICMAX: -1.11%
RYSEX: -1.82%
WAFMX: -1.51%
Interestingly, they did better than my allocation funds
FPACX: -2.92%
OAKBX: -3.45%
SGENX: -3.33%
GLRBX: -1.84% (this is actually in my daughter's portfolio)

FYI: Let's hope it holds
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-15/asian-futures-signal-losses-as-dollar-holds-drop-with-oil.html

The usual suspects: Cash, high quality bonds, and bearish funds like BEARX and HSGFX usually hold up much better during equity sell-offs. Those last two should be looking at 3-5% gains over the past 3-4 weeks. But that's just a guess. Haven't bothered to check. Gold has also held up well in recent weeks, rebounding from near $1200 to around $1240 today (but is still off big-time for the year). I'll note, FWIW, that Price's RPGAX which dabbles in hedge funds has held up better than some other balanced funds - but has still declined.
I'm curious however as to the purpose of the question. To me it's very much an academic question in the sense that someone might include small portions of these funds for balance within a long-term oriented portfolio, but none (with the possible exception of RPGAX) look that attractive as core holdings. Just MHO. Thanks for the question.
Here's a link to some top performers - one month. Enjoy :)
http://www.barchart.com/funds/1month.php

The 1850-ish support level (I still don't know where that comes from) has held, T rates are up, and energy (both fossil fuels and renewables) is getting a major bid.
Wonder what'll happen in the next five minutes.

Take yesterday (no on second thought, don't...)
BAC reports 0.01 per share loss after 0.43 per share DoJ settlement.
Eventually, that 0.43 expense will disappear, putting BAC in position to earn $1.68 per share per year profit. Which translates to $25 share price at 15 times earnings.
The company just continues to get stronger and stronger. Moynihan is another CEO now chairman I really like, along with Kleinfeld at Alcoa.
But the stock dropped nearly 6% to close in $15s.
I had decided to buy more yesterday if it dropped under $15, which is my last purchase price. Still have that plan in place.
Just crazy.

Replay of yesterday, looks like. This is getting old...

Volatility this morning is remarkable. I'm seeing 50-100 point moves up/down in a matter of a few minutes.

@Tony: ProShares Short S&P 500 up .90 % as we speak.
Regards,
Ted

FYI: When the stock market is falling, mutual funds with low beta — sensitivity to movements in the benchmark index — should do better, right?
Not necessarily. Funds with the lowest 3-year beta have generated a variety of returns in the past three years and over shorter terms
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1NjQ0OTI=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WMUTpent101614.gif&docId=722014&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=721922

I'm curious to see when/if ARIVX buys. The manager stayed more than 50% cash through the 2011 correction, when small value went down over 20%. He's made clear he's looking for a major, 2008 style crash. If we get it, he'll look like a genius, as he did in 2008-9.
I'm skeptical that people can get calls like that right more than once or twice in a lifetime, but if he does, or if he proves flexible and buys in on a mere 10-20% correction, I will eat humble pie.
I don't think he's evil, and I did well in my brief time in the fund, but I think that, like Hussman, he's got rigid beliefs and refuses to mark them to market. But I hope I'm wrong for all the ARIVX investors our there, and I hope he's wrong about a 50% crash for the sake of the rest of us.

Some gorgeous scenery on Amtrak that you wouldn't see on the road, but yeah, long stretches in coach are definitely not easy.
The other issue that people aren't focusing on is the fact that Greece is breaking down (to put it lightly) again.
Greece:
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/522687721488539648/photo/1

Basically, you had generation one of L/S funds where managers often seemed to feel required to have a bunch of longs and a bunch of shorts. Either the funds didn't do that much of anything or didn't do that well. Then you started to have funds able to dial up and down risk more significantly and able to actually participate more in the markets. Now people are upset when the markets are down 7% or so and the funds were not able to move in a week or two.
They're not hedge funds, if you think they are going to dramatically change their holdings in a week's time, you're going to be disappointed. L/S funds are not going to shield you from every move lower in a market. If the market moves lower over months and over the course of 6-9 months they pull a "it's bad, not our fault market sucks", then yeah, that's a problem.
Funds like Pimco's All Asset/All Authority are upsetting because they're too conservative until they're not. People act like the manager of ARIVX is an evil lunatic for holding near 75% cash until this happens and the fund is suddenly near the very top of its category YTD and MTD and now I'll guess people are probably scrambling back into it. If things suddenly change for the better, those people will be all upset again.
Pimco Managed Futures has done astonishingly well. I can guarantee you that there will be a period where it's positioned wrong and people will be upset and dump it. That said, I remain rather fascinated by a managed futures mutual fund that is doing better than some managed futures hedge funds. It is also ahead of its category average by about 11%.

I have FVALX which does not call itself a hedged equity fund but does same thing in times manager deems bad. Needless to say M* classifies it as L/s. What a joke.

Doing better than Hussman, with a much simpler strategy that likely leads to far less costs for shareholders - it's what I've thought Hussman should be doing for a few years now: if you're that bearish, stop holding things like Panera and having a complex options hedging strategy and go to mostly cash and things like Walgreens.

Looks like they are all in. Not what I would have expected from a L/S fund.
http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=RGHVX

Most L/S funds are heavily invested. People weren't happy with L/S funds that were basically close to market neutral, now you have ones that can be more long and .... most of them are.