I think strategy like sts will work if we repeat a 15 year market like from 1998. So will a simp,e strategy around 10 month MA. Wonder why sts uses DJIA.

FYI: Midcap stock mutual funds, like their small-cap cousins, have lagged large-cap funds and the S&P 500 this year, but midcaps remain close behind small caps' stellar performance in the past 15 years.
Look what a $10,000 investment on Sept. 30, 1999, would do in each. Investors holding the average midcap stock fund would have $36,323 as of Oct. 20 this year, according to Morningstar data. That's a bit behind small-cap funds, which would have $39,299.
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1ODMzNjI=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv1022.gif&docId=722910&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=722911

Hi Catch22 ...
I used the decline in the Index's price line to add value and to enter into the spiff in time for the anticipated fall stock market rally. .....I made a guess as to how much these anticipated distributions would amount to and chose to position in while I felt prices in October would be more favorable than what they might be towards yearend; and, I fronted the money to make the purchases. I'll let the forthcoming anticipated capital gain distributions restore my cash allocation within my portfolio. Kind of clever ... Don't you think?
In short, I felt prices would be more favorable in October than they might be in November, December, January, February and March ... and, I chose to go ahead and position in to hopefully catching the anticipated fall stock market rally that usually starts sometime towards the end of October and usually runs through the first quarter of the following year on and into its second quarter.
Old_Skeet

Old_Skeet, I'm very glad this worked out well for you. You realize this was a market timing decision. What made you so confident that prices would be more favorable now versus what you mentioned above, November thru March? For example, at this time in October, 2007, I don't believe that decision would have worked out well. Nor the year after, in October 2008. And you know there have been some nasty Octobers in the market, such as 1987 and maybe others, where this same decision would not have been good.
Seems the market could just as easily have continued downward, due to unknowns such as Ebola, fears of deflation in Europe, issues in Japan, Hong Kong, fears of slowing in China, all that is happening globally from Ukraine to the middle east......to unemployment, less than robust recovery, you know the whole story......
Anyway, a market timing decision. Looks like you got it right, but I haven't seen evidence that many can time the stock market well.
I agree with what you said about forward earnings, forward P/E ratios looking reasonable. Have you seen the forward P/E on the Dow? Seems to me that buying the etf DIA is a reasonable choice. 30 quality stocks with an aggregate P/E less than 15. Of course, the bears like Hussman say that earnings have peaked, so the P/E is not accurate, because the "E" will be reverting to the mean. No, I'm not in Hussman's funds.

I am surprised that using Gartman as a contrarian indicator seems to keep working. At some point, there must be a reversion to the mean! :-)

I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring
Charted:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/10/20141021_gart.jpg

Last week one of our own here said short the heck out of the airlines among others shorts. They have more than soared since. Just goes to show what happens when you invest or trade based on the headlines (Ebola) Not ragging on this perennial pessimist as I am certainly not exempt from making bonehead calls too.

I am surprised that using Gartman as a contrarian indicator seems to keep working. At some point, there must be a reversion to the mean! :-)

I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring
Charted:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/10/20141021_gart.jpg

I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/why-stocks-are-soaring
Charted:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/10/20141021_gart.jpg

Financial TV?
All useless I agree. At times, however, it may drown-out other noises like traffic going by, planes flying over, kids shouting and trash collectors. I get a laugh out of Cramer in the morning - same as I do out of Stewart and Cobert in the evening. But would never listen to any of them for investment advice.
For serious down-time: (1) subscribe to any number of wonderful domestic/international magazines, newspapers or blogs at Amazon, (2) get yourself a set of good bluetooth headphones ($200+) also at Amazon. (3) Load favorite music and reading content onto any number of great tablet devices (I like the Fire HD). ENJOY!
---
What's available to read using the free Kindle App?
You name it. The International NYT is $15 a month and gets delivered around 8PM EST - so you get that day's news. the regular NYT is about $20, but has a Sunday edition which the other does not.
Barron's and WSJ - but too pricy for my taste.
The New Yorker every Monday if you want some culture.
The SF Chronicle at $6 a month is a steal and publishes 7 days a week
Humor? Subscribe to The Onion.
The Smithsonian publishes two magazines. I subscribe to the one on Aviation which is excellent. Their other publication deals more with archeology and geography.

Ivy Funds
https://www.ivyfunds.com/sites/default/files/Ivy_Fund_2014_Capital_Gain_Distribution_Estimates.pdf
Waddell & Reed Funds
http://www.waddell.com/NetCommon/MutualFunds/pdf/cap_gain_estimates_wra.pdf
AllianceBernstein Funds
https://www.alliancebernstein.com/abcom/Segment_Homepages/Investments/US/Resources/Content/PDFs/tax_center/2014EstCapGainsDist.pdf?uuid=e7f088cc-554b-11e4-9444-95c2d42715d2
Oppenheimer Funds
https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/doc/2014_Capital_Gains_Estimates_and_Distribution_Calendar.pdf

Sears stock price has recovered a bit, as has FAIRX.

In a separate announcement that sent Sears shares soaring 23 percent, the Chicago-based retailer said it will raise as much as $625 million through an offering of 8 percent senior notes and warrants, easing worries about the retailer’s balance sheet.

I wonder if 8% is enough to compensate investors who buy these senior notes for the risk that they are taking. Or is this the new normal in today's low interest rate environment?
Sears news from the NY Post

Meh. 8% is not all that appealing, when there's any number of pfd's for healthier companies yielding 6-7% and offering lower risk. CHS pfd's yielding 6.75-7% and those barely budged that much in 2008.

Hi Catch22 ...
Thanks for your question.
I reference the below link for certain P/E Ratio details on the S&P 500 Index.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=wsj_mdc_additional_ustocks
Notice the continued positive outlook for forward earnings ... this, to me, is a fundmanetal and not a technical. It was the large part of my thinking process to increase equity positions within my portfolio.
I used the decline in the Index's price line to add value and to enter into the spiff in time for the anticipated fall stock market rally. In Novemeber and December many of my mutual funds will be making large capital gain distributions and some of them as high as eight percent, or more. I made a guess as to how much these anticipated distributions would amount to and chose to position in while I felt prices in October would be more favorable than what they might be towards yearend; and, I fronted the money to make the purchases. I'll let the forthcoming anticipated capital gain distributions restore my cash allocation within my portfolio. Kind of clever ... Don't you think?
In short, I felt prices would be more favorable in October than they might be in November, December, January, February and March ... and, I chose to go ahead and position in to hopefully catching the anticipated fall stock market rally that usually starts sometime towards the end of October and usually runs through the first quarter of the following year on and into its second quarter.
In addition, as an investor, I'll will remian invested within my portfolio's asset allocation ranges. These ranges follow: Cash Area (5% to 25%) ... Income Area (20% to 40%) ... Growth & Income Area (30% to 50%) ... and, the Growth Area (10% to 20%). With this, my allocation to equities can range for a low of about 40% to a high of about 70% and my allocation to debt securities, which include cash, can range form a low of 30% to a high of 60% within my portfolio. All asset areas can not be at their low, or high, percentage mark at the same time.
Old_Skeet

Howdy @Old_Skeet
You noted: " I ventured into this special spiff based more on market fundamentals rather than its technical’s."
Will you please 'splain to me what you view as fundamentals versus technical's in your above statement.
For me, when one notes moving monies based upon something like the SP500 pricing; one is using technical aspects to determine a price value for either under or over sold. No?
I suppose it may be said that I use fundamental analysis in respect to a broad view of what I perceive is moving or not moving a particular seqment of a market.
Thank you for your input and time.
Catch

I thought I'd update the board on the special investment position (spiff) I made in what turned out to be a downdraft in the S&P 500 Index as it did pull back about ten per cent from its recent high of about 2020 to a recent low in the 1820 range. As I write, the Index is selling for about 1920 and my spiff is now in the money. Should the Index reach 2100 as forecast by some for its yearend close then this will result in better than a ten percent return for this spiff. If for some reason this turns on me I'll be collecting a good yield and time is on my side for this spiff to work as I am an investor rather than a trader although I have, at times, sold off some of my spiffs once they have reached a targeted goal or to rebalance my portfolio.
Although some may say I averaged down in opening this spiff I don't look at this in that light. I view it as I will have, in the end, invested market derived money back into certain investments that were selling at discounted prices at the time they were purchased. I ventured into this special spiff based more on market fundamentals rather than its technical’s. Investors govern more by market fundamentals over market technical’s but may use technical’s to aid in positioning their new entries while traders seem to govern more by price line action and technical’s to enter and exit positions.
Please don't take this as an Old_Skeet vs. Junkster debate but it is intended, by me, to expand and to better explain the difference of the two very different styles. No doubt, Junkster has had good success ... but, so have I as a long term investor. I truly believe we can learn form each other by exploring each others success and failures and studying the thinking in making these ventures. For me, it is indeed good to have Junkster post his thinking. And, although I have had success thus far this year he was right on spot with his call on muni high yield. Indeed, he has trounced another trader that I follow, to see what he is doing and thinking, and that is the Moose.
Thanks Junkster for the continued posting of your thinking. It is much appreciated.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102102875?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102102875#.
I always thought Bogle was a Vanguard kinda guy

FYI: I’ve written extensively about the volatility exchange-traded products, like the iPath S&P VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX | A-47) and the C-Tracks Citi Volatility ETN (CVOL | D-49). I’ve written about how you have to have perfect timing for investments in these VIX futures products to work. I’ve written about the hows and whys of the triple-digit run in the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV).
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23585-dont-bet-either-way-on-market-volatility.html?tmpl=component&print=1&layout=default&page=

The title says it all.
http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2577225-investors-pile-into-small-cap-etfs?source=feed_tag_etf_portfolio_strategy

' I would love to find a bond fund that could be both a safe haven and could provide steady returns, but I just don’t think that exists anymore'
OK Ruth, Don't check out VWEHX,PRHYX.....they might fit the criteria +9% 5yr, +7%10yr

Howdy @00BY
Here ya go on the fee thing:
The Activity Assessment Fee is imposed by Fidelity Investments on behalf of The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for executed sell orders. It is administered in an effort to defray some of the costs associated with the regulation and surveillance of the securities industry and its professionals. This fee is deducted from the proceeds of most equity and option sell orders and will be reported on trade confirmations as the Activity Assessment Fee. Fidelity uses the average price of multiple executions when calculating the regulatory fee charged by the SEC to sellers of equity securities that are traded on exchanges.
Effective April 10, 2009, the fee is $25.70 per $1,000,000.00 of aggregate sale proceeds (principal amount of the sale X 0.0000257). The fee is rounded up to the nearest penny.
S.E.C. info page..................http://www.sec.gov/answers/sec31.htm
You may also consider TIP ,which is available with the others on Fido's etf list.
Take care,
Catch

I suggest, as I have previously; the book; The Power of Habit. Habits, of course; reach into almost every aspect of one's daily routines and decision making.
This link provides a nice overview of the subject matter. The book is readily avaialable at Amazon; with one's purchase helping to support MFO when using the Amazon link on these pages.

Screenshot of FAIRX holdings, showing the +8.7% figure, error by M*

I just called M* and let them know about the data error. I suspect they will have this corrected soon.
Regarding the big difference between the closing price of SHLD on 12/31/13 and 1/2/14, and the "adjusted closing price" shown in Yahoo Finance. I believe that may have had to do with spinning off Lands' End stock.

And with that action today, SHLD becomes the leader of the FAIRX portfolio YTD at +8.6%.

I believe you got this figure from M* and their "Holdings" tab.
However, I don't believe M* is correct when they list SHLD as being +8.6% YTD.
SHLD closed on 12/31/2013 at $49.04, and opened 1/2/14 at $49.05
Today it closed at $34.96
However, they must have had some dividend or split, as Yahoo Finance lists the "adjusted close" (adjusted for dividends and splits) on 12/31/13 as $39.31/share
So the "adjusted close" went from $39.31 to today's close of $34.96
Looks like an 11.07% loss YTD
Looking at it another way, based on what M* said about SHLD YTD data after Friday's close [down 28.5% YTD per M*], then factoring in today's change, it looks like a 12% loss YTD.
So either -11.07% YTD if you trust Yahoo Finance adjusted closing price data, or -12% YTD if you trust M*'s YTD data from Friday........but M* has this incorrect on their "holdings" tab of FAIRX regarding SHLD YTD performance