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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Quantitative Value ETF Launches Today
    The young EtF accumulated $2.6M in first couple days of trading. Like all ETFs, its holdings are disclosed daily. Here are its initial value picks...40 names, 2.5% each:
    AETNA INC NEW (AET)
    ALBEMARLE Corp (ALB)
    APOLLO EDUCATION GROUP INC (APOL)
    APPLE INC (AAPL)
    AT&T INC (T)
    BED BATH & BEYOND INC (BBBY)
    BEST BUY INC (BBY)
    BLOCK H & R INC (HRB)
    CA INC (CA)
    CF INDS HLDGS INC (CF)
    CIGNA CorpORATION (CI)
    CISCO SYS INC (CSCO)
    COACH INC (COH)
    EASTMAN CHEM CO (EMN)
    EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES Corp (EW)
    FLUOR Corp NEW (FLR)
    FOOT LOCKER INC (FL)
    GAMESTOP Corp NEW (GME)
    GAP INC DEL (GPS)
    HARRIS Corp DEL (HRS)
    HEALTH NET INC (HNT)
    HUMANA INC (HUM)
    KOHLS Corp (KSS)
    LEXMARK INTL NEW (LXK)
    MADDEN STEVEN LTD (SHOO)
    MAGNA INTL INC (MGA)
    MARATHON Oil Corp (MRO)
    MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD ORD (MRVL)
    METHANEX Corp (MEOH)
    MYRIAD GENETICS INC (MYGN)
    NORTHROP GRUMMAN Corp (NOC)
    NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC (NUS)
    OCCIDENTAL PETE Corp DEL (OXY)
    SANDERSON FARMS INC (SAFM)
    SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO (SWN)
    SUNCOR ENERGY INC NEW (SU)
    UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC (UNH)
    VALMONT INDS INC (VMI)
    WELLPOINT INC (WLP)
    WESTLAKE CHEM Corp (WLK)
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S.
    Yes, what a difference a week makes...who says the market is efficient?
    image
  • Janus Profits Rise 25%, Still Measuring Gross's Effect
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Janus Capital Group Inc. Chief Executive Richard Weil on Thursday called his surprise hiring of bond kingpin Bill Gross last month “the press release heard around the world,” but said it was too soon to know the impact on the fund firm’s business.
    Janus earlier in the day said that its third-quarter profits rose 25% over the prior year, but the firm’s executives didn’t attribute the gain to Mr. Gross’s arrival. They also said they wouldn’t provide any data on fund inflows until next month.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=janus+profits+wsj&oq=janus+profits+wsj&gs_l=hp.3...1300.7466.0.8185.17.17.0.0.0.0.67.937.17.17.0....0...1c.1.56.hp..6.11.653.fKIIcceEEOU
  • Schwab Signs M* To Provide Equity Research, Ratings
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
    Deal will give advisers access to sector reports and pick lists, as well as daily, weekly and quarterly outlook reports.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141023/FREE/141029954?template=printart
  • BATS Exchange Welcomes ValueShares
    Dear BATS, I am overwhelmed with joy at your new addition. Meanwhile, have you given any thought-- serious, or otherwise-- to what happened several days ago, when the NASDAQ, at midday, had to stop all further trading of 150 stocks, for the rest of the trading day, because you and other option exchanges couldn't get your shit together? Just wondering.
  • Art Cashin: "Says Hedgies Covering Shorts And Going Long"
    10 Yr Treasury Index 22.75 +0.46 (2.06%) < For the bonders>
    Better than Equity !
  • BATS Exchange Welcomes ValueShares
    FYI: BATS Global Markets (BATS), a leading operator of securities markets in the U.S. and Europe, today announced that Alpha Architect's first exchange-traded fund (ETF), the ValueShares U.S. Quantitative Value ETF (bats:QVAL) begins trading today on BATS Exchange.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bats-exchange-welcomes-valueshares-2014-10-22-846759/print
  • Know What Junk Bond Funds Are---And Aren't
    +1, Catch
    Not to the messenger; but to the writers of the article. Man, I'm glad I am not in this line of work; requiring to pump out something, anything.
    Did it really require two people to put together this piece; and what did anyone learn???
    We learned that junk bond holdings went down, along with the broad U.S. equity market recently when some folks were a little bit shaken. Apparently the marketplace remains on the 1-3 month investment return(s) range, eh? I also don't recall an explanation related to the title.
    The title could have been, "What have your investments done for you in the past 1-3 months?" Holy crap. with this type of article; as Robin would say to Batman.
    My 2 cents for HY vs, well; the SP-500/ SPY.
    Typical for the HY versus the SPY measurements for the past 5 years is that for every 1% move in SPY, HY bond sectors (active managed) move .25 - .33%; up and down. Plain and simple.
    Yes, there are times when these numbers do not follow this pattern.
    A quick view of a plain jane HY bond fund; and not even the best of the bunch, is to review SPHIX vs SPY.
    Total returns:
    Jan, 1999 - Oct 22, 2014
    SPHIX = + 166%
    SPY = + 107%
    The nasty period, Oct 2007- March 19, 2009
    SPHIX = - 24%
    SPY = - 48%
    Data source is Stockcharts.com.
    Your mileage may vary.....
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Best L/S Fund
    It would seem to me that judging any fund based on a one-week period is very short-sighted. Yes, the premise is that long-short funds should have some upside participation and should have limited downside. Just what those amounts are is certainly open to discussion. A top equity fund manager said this week that the market volatility on Wednesday last week was another 'flash crash' that will result in an investigation, caused by hedge funds and other traders begin caught in the euro/dollar speculation. I would not expect my long-short fund to anticipate something like that. On a longer time horizon, however, I would and do expect L/S managers to navigate the markets reasonably well.
    The group of 30+ L/S funds we track use all kinds of strategies, and only about half of them have 3-year records, and fewer than 10 have 5-year records. Those with 10-year records held up much better than the S&P 500. As I look at a handful of L/S funds with long-term records, it would appear that investors should use these with the understanding that they will underperform, sometimes significantly, when markets are in a strong bull trend. For me, that is the trade-off. The crux is how they handle real bear markets. Because we have not had one of these since 2008, it is difficult to evaluate the large number of L/S funds that have come to market in the last 1-2 years. They could look pretty good now, but they could be real stinkers in a long bear market.
    Selecting the BEST long-short fund is problematic, therefore. Those with long-term measurable records include GGUIX, CLSIX, GATEX, HEOZX, MFLDX, FMLSX. It is very easy to look at some of the newer funds and assume the current performance is indicative of long-term expectations. That would be a mistake.
  • Know What Junk Bond Funds Are---And Aren't
    Not to the messenger; but to the writers of the article. Man, I'm glad I am not in this line of work; requiring to pump out something, anything.
    Did it really require two people to put together this piece; and what did anyone learn???
    We learned that junk bond holdings went down, along with the broad U.S. equity market recently when some folks were a little bit shaken. Apparently the marketplace remains on the 1-3 month investment return(s) range, eh? I also don't recall an explanation related to the title.
    The title could have been, "What have your investments done for you in the past 1-3 months?" Holy crap. with this type of article; as Robin would say to Batman.
    My 2 cents for HY vs, well; the SP-500/ SPY.
    Typical for the HY versus the SPY measurements for the past 5 years is that for every 1% move in SPY, HY bond sectors (active managed) move .25 - .33%; up and down. Plain and simple. (These numbers are from personal experience with our holdings during this period.)
    Yes, there are times when these numbers do not follow this pattern.
    A quick view of a plain jane HY bond fund; and not even the best of the bunch, is to review SPHIX vs SPY.
    Total returns:
    Jan, 1999 - Oct 22, 2014
    SPHIX = + 166%
    SPY = + 107%
    The nasty period, Oct 2007- March 19, 2009
    SPHIX = - 24%
    SPY = - 48%
    Data source is Stockcharts.com.
    Your mileage may vary.....
    Regards,
    Catch
  • How Are Top -Yielding Dividend Funds Performing ?
    FYI: Few of today's top-yielding dividend mutual funds have been around for 10 years. Few are beating the S&P 500 year to date. And none of the top yielders have higher returns than the S&P 500 in the past 10 years.
    For example, Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund leads the pack with a 12-month yield of 6.28%, far above the S&P 500's 1.98%, according to Morningstar data.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1ODc5MzM=
    Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv1023.gif&docId=723101&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=723098
  • Know What Junk Bond Funds Are---And Aren't
    FYI: Low interest rates have led many investors to buy high-yield funds holding below-investment-grade, or junk, bonds.
    It’s a strategy that has paid off over the past few years. But lately, investors have seen the other side of these high-yield bond funds: negative returns. As the stock market turned volatile, the funds lost money on average over the past month and three months, even as high-quality bond funds delivered positive returns
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/10/22/know-what-junk-bond-funds-are-and-arent/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2014%2F10%2F22%2Fknow-what-junk-bond-funds-are-and-arent%2Ftab%2Fprint&amp;fpid=2,121
  • Asset Classes: Real 10-Year Expected Return
    Rob Arnott and his firm, Research Affiliates is the source of that chart showing the expected 10-year returns of different asset classes.
    Rob Arnott has managed the Pimco All Asset All Authority fund for 11 years, since inception. So how well has he done implementing his firms' forecasts into a real life portfolio? It appears that he can invest in anything, anywhere with this fund, PAUIX.
    Above, PAUIX. Below, the S&P 500 over the same timeframe.
    image
  • Best L/S Fund
    You are actually paying an 8.13% expense ratio. Here is the key sentence, with emphasis on "except:"
    "Ordinary operating expenses includes all Fund expenses except brokerage, taxes, borrowing costs such as interest and dividend expenses on securities sold short, Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses and extraordinary expenses."
    So you are paying 6.42% in "Other Expenses" and 0.06% for "Aquired Fund Fees and Expenses" -- both of which are excluded from the 1.90% limit -- and you are also paying for the management fee of 1.65%, which is below 1.90%. Total damage is the 8.13%.
    M* could report the actual expense ratio paid by investors in a conspicuous place, ideally on the fund's front page, but they choose not to do so, likely for the benefit of the fund company at the expense of common investors. And it would not violate any SEC regulation for M* to report an "Investor Expense Ratio" much like they report "Investor Returns."
    Kevin
  • Catching falling knives
    @Old_Skeet, thank you for sharing your insights and your approach, not just on a regular basis but also in specific responses to questions I've asked you previously. I very much appreciate your insights and wisdom as well as several others who post and discuss here, even when our investment styles differ. FWIW and based on your comment earlier in this thread, here's my approach for everyone's information and critique.
    In your terms I have 4 sleeves: stocks, mutual funds, futures and private equity.
    For stocks, I follow the Sound Advice newsletter and I invest based on M* screens I created focused mostly on wide or narrow moats and low price/fair value. I won't buy a stock unless its 5* and I don't hold most stocks above 90% of fair value. Both are value oriented approaches and following the newsletter is highly mechanical, although I exercise some discretion in an attempt to improve on his returns.
    For mutual funds, which is the largest portion of my portfolio, I take a top down view and together with stocks I want my M* X-ray to achieve certain objectives based on the global market capitalization. Right now those objectives are significantly overweight frontier markets and small/mid-caps, overweight healthcare and emerging markets, equal weight US and significantly underweight developed international markets and large-cap stocks. At this point I have no fixed income investments as I'm far more concerned about eventually rising interest rates than I am about geo-political risks or a global slowdown. In picking funds, I'm looking for managers with outstanding records (sometimes with different funds or companies) and/or investment approaches that make very good sense to me. I have a preference for low AUM, focused portfolios, turnover that's not too high and reasonable expenses, but there are very few rules, just guidelines and preferences.
    My targeted year-end collection of funds, from largest investment to smallest, includes POAGX, GPIOX, GPEOX, WAFMX, WAAEX, FSCRX, PRNHX, KGGAX, IWIRX, MEASX, OAKWX, PTSGX, OBIOX, MAPIX, DGS, GEGCX and PRHSX. I say targeted because I have a couple funds I'm rotating out of to build investments in some of these I've listed, specifically MEASX and IWIRX which I became aware of here on MFO and KGGAX which I read an article about on M*. I tend to start with smaller positions in new investments and build bigger positions as I get more comfortable with the manager, although Grandeur Peak was a big exception because of the hard closes. I tend to be a long-term investor but I will rotate when I find opportunities that better achieve my objectives. As an example, I'm funding part of my investment in MEASX by reducing GEGCX because I like the smaller-cap nature of the fund as well as greater frontier market exposure.
    Futures are a very small portion of my portfolio and its my play money. Most of the time I make bets based on a combination of fundamental and technical aspects of whatever I trade. Right now I'm long Canadian $ and short Euro and keeping my eyes open for opportunities to short Yen and 30 Year Treasury Bonds.
    Finally, I have a few investments in private equity that have become a much larger percentage of my portfolio than they should be but it shouldn't be too much longer before I find out whether my thought process was right or not.
  • Asset Classes: Real 10-Year Expected Return
    FYI: In a world of low bond yields and slow economic growth, historically realized 5-6% real (7-8% nominal) asset class returns may be unrealistic expectations for the future.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/10/asset-classes-real-10-year-expected-return/print/
  • Grandeur Peak 3Q Commentary
    @00BY, thanks for posting the very interesting study!! The numbers may be a little surprising but not too much. When I think about the SAI's I've looked through, its not very often I see a pension plan or endowment on the list of 5% owners. It's almost always the Schwab's, Fidelity's, TD Ameritrade's, E*TRADE's and Vanguard's that own a very large portion of fund assets and in most cases they would represent households through company sponsored 401K plans, IRAs or individual accounts. I do guess, however, that Grandeur Peak's breakdown is not reflective of the same split. It could be that the 19% Institutions number are non-households according to the study. It isn't totally clear, though, whether these numbers are based on where they get their assets or whether its the number of investors regardless of the assets they invest.
    I did discover a few interesting facts based on this study though. I'm a little shocked that 53% of people who own mutual funds are not college graduates (47% are). I know that 50 or 60 years ago a college education wasn't as common as today, but it strikes me as a shocking number.
    It seems a little ironic that 47% invest in mutual funds to reduce income taxes. I wasn't actually aware that mutual funds reduced taxes. Maybe its just a misuse of the words, since they may consider the mutual funds held in a 401K plan or IRA as reducing their taxes, when in fact its the IRA or 401K that affects taxes, not the mutual fund. Otherwise, I think the only way a mutual fund lowers taxes is by having a lower return or higher expenses than if you invested in some other way, and neither of those seems like a good thing.
    I also found out my wife belongs to a different generation that I do, barely, but that explains a lot! :) I knew she was young, but I didn't realize she was that young.
  • Catching falling knives
    @Old_Skeet My earlier comment may have (unintentionally) come off as being critical and I apologize for that. What I meant to say is that I appreciate all comments made in this forum and incorporate them into my decision making process.
    One of my regrets in my investing career is that I spent too much time (and money) trying to uncover star fund managers and time the market. Moving more and more into ETF indexing, particularly in the domestic, REIT and emerging market areas. Bonds are still actively managed with many of the managers mentioned here (PIMCO, Gundlach, Fuss, Gaffney). International holdings are about 50/50 index ETFs/actively managed.
    Have a small percentage allocated to commodities...probably spent too much time listening to those that Paul Krugman of the NYT would call "inflation scolds". Have some PAUDX, but think Arnott is a better academic than investment manager. Use Target Date funds...relatively easy to pick out the better long term performers there. Have an allocation to alternatives, which I call my fun money.
    Would like to find some "defensive" mutual funds, but not convinced there is such a thing. Yacktman funds come to mind. Yes, he did do well in the 2007-2009 downturn, but does that mean he will do well in the next downturn? Has done just average in the last 5 years.
    Ten years ago I would have laughed if someone said I couldn't uncover managers who would "beat the market" and do better than average. Now, I'm not so sure.
  • Why High Yield? Why Now?
    This is so true, Andy. the spreads snapped back with the vengeance: if one were to annualize the HY performance over the last couple of days, it would have been 106%! kind of telling how desperate market participants are for investment opportunities.
    It's breathtaking how quickly traders jump on any 'oversold'-like opportunity. That article was published today, apparently written a few days ago (it's a little stale on the HY spread peak, which happened last Wednesday per the FRED calculation). While the spread's still in decent 4+ territory, the data FRED uses says it's 58 basis points off the peak already, at 4.50% as of yesterday.
  • Wednesday. Oct. 22. Before the Bell.
    I'm not a coffee drinker, but Starbucks is - I think - successful in large part due to the leadership of Howard Schultz, who I do think is one of the great CEOs (and I liked his books.)
    Chipotle had huge growth, but a weaker-than-expected forecast. I don't get Chipotle (and I look at a number of Yelp reviews for locations and they don't get great reviews), but the growth they're having continues to roll on - it just becomes do you want to buy it at nearly a 50 p/e.
    What they're doing in terms of introducing new concepts (something McDonalds should have done ages ago instead of resting on the fact that it's McD's) is smart. I wouldn't invest in it (I have to really care about something/have an interest to invest, among other things), but I think they're doing the right things. McDonald's would have been smart not to have sold its stake in Chipotle years ago.
    I think what's more troubling that no one really talks about is how obliterated a number of the restaurant IPOs that people hoped were the next Chipotle got. Noodles and Co probably the biggest example:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NDLS+Interactive#{"range":"max","scale":"linear"}