Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    Do you know why the sale?
    59,800 Indirect Sale at $36.54 - $36.61 per share. 2,187,0002
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    Oct 31, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    104,800 Indirect Purchase at $35.34 per share. 3,703,632
    Oct 30, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    212,200 Indirect Purchase at $37 per share. 7,851,400
    Oct 29, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    59,800 Indirect Sale at $36.54 - $36.61 per share. 2,187,0002
    Oct 29, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    161,900 Indirect Purchase at $37.04 per share. 5,996,776
    Oct 28, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    100,000 Indirect Purchase at $37.78 per share. 3,778,000
    Oct 27, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    69,700 Indirect Purchase at $38.66 per share. 2,694,602
    Oct 23, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    111,100 Indirect Purchase at $35.37 - $36 per share. 3,965,0002
    Oct 22, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    21,600 Indirect Purchase at $34.74 per share. 750,384
    Oct 21, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    126,400 Indirect Purchase at $34.81 per share. 4,399,984
    Oct 20, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    144,500 Indirect Purchase at $32.29 - $34.92 per share. 4,856,0002
  • The First Santa Claus Rally Reality Check of 2014
    This article and study comes from a link that John Chisom provided on their portfolio asset allocation survey. However, this study is on the Santa Claus rally. Some say it begins around Thanksgiving, others the day before Christmas while others think that it comes on the last day of December with all lasting until the 2nd day of trading in the new year. I am of the camp that it starts early form time-to-time and feel that it started around October 15th this year.
    And, yes ... whatever the time span you choose to go by ... I have positioned for the benefits that usually come with the fall/winter stock market rally which usually continues on and into and through spring of the following year.
    The link for the study is below for those that might be interested.
    http://investorplace.com/2014/11/sp-500-santa-claus-rally
    Old_Skeet
  • Oppenheimer Emerging Markets Innovators Fund (EMIYX)
    In the multi-cap EM equity space, I continue to prefer WESNX which continues to be open to new investors at Scottrade for a $2500 minimum + TF in taxable and retirement accounts. And WESNX has outperformed EMIYX since its inception. Disclosure: we like and own WESNX.
    Kevin
  • DoubleLine Attracts $2.38 billion Net Inflows In October, Record For Year
    @Max, you can get institutional share with $5k minimum for tax deferred account plus a transaction fee in most brokerages. Fidelity charges $50 whereas it costs $20 at Vanguard. Wish more companies would lower the $minimum for IRA accounts.
  • Morgan Housel's Dream Investor
    Hi Guys,
    Morgan Housel has generated a profile for his Dream Investor. Here is a Link to the article:
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/05/my-dream-investor.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003
    You need not be the sociopath who Housel outlines.. I know quite a few investors who fit the profile near perfectly without exhibiting some of the common characteristics of a true sociopath. I offer John Bogle and Charles Ellis as famous likely examples. Some folks on this MFO Discussion board also mostly fit the profile. These folks likely collect handsome rewards.
    Enjoy the article.
    Best Regards.
  • Paul Merriman: The Best Investment Advice Ever
    For 45y I have heard the rule 2 is don't forget rule 1, yada, and no one has said How can I follow rule 1 scrupulously, seriously. Same for most of the other rules.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Rise After Midterm Elections
    FYI: DJIA Hits 20th Closing High This Year; S&P 500 Marks 36th.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
  • Barry Ritholtz: When Negativity Helps a Bull Market
    FYI: Measuring it is a challenge. We can’t trust what people say because they become bullish after they buy and bearish after they sell, convincing themselves that past trades were the correct way to go. Humans are notorious liars -- especially to themselves. When they are not lying, they often can be found busy making excuses and other rationalizations for their actions.
    Hence, we need to find more objective ways to view and measure sentiment.
    That is why I find Jason Goepfert’s SentimentTrader website so intriguing. He follows an extraordinary number of indicators that track investor sentiment.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-05/when-negativity-helps-a-bull-market
  • The 3 Best Short-Term Bond Funds To Buy Now
    Morn'in @Old_Skeet
    It appears that LALDX is also a short duration, high yield bond fund. This FIDO view, from June 30 data, also indicates a 30 day yield of 2.6%.
    ...
    Me 2 cents worth.
    Take care,
    Catch
    LALDX appears in a M* article Is Your Short-Term Bond Fund More Risky Than You Thought?
    FWIW, it is available load-waived and w/o transaction fee at TDAmeritrade.
  • Whitebox Tactical Commentary on Disappointing 3Q
    "He's much less kind to Amazon (AMZN -1.2%), asserting the company's latest numbers are especially disappointing since they suggest the growth used to justify a dearth of profits is slowing, and in doing so is yielding higher losses.Einhorn: "One of the principal bullish assumptions supporting many bubble stocks is, 'the company is growing too fast to be very profitable.' We think AMZN is just one of the many stocks for which this narrative will ultimately prove false."Einhorn doesn't explicitly state he's short Amazon, though he does say Greenlight increased its exposure to "bubble basket" shorts in Q3."
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2096315-einhorn-talks-up-emc-calls-amazon-a-bubble-stock
    Greenlight similar to Whitebox in its attempts to short momentum/flashy names, although the latter calls it their "Never Never" names and the latter is likely more substantially short.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/whitebox-shorting-never-never-stocks-in-graham-reversal.html
  • Cambria Launches Global Momentum Fund Today (GMOM)
    @finder.
    I share same disappointment about GTAA performance. It's never been easy to love.
    I tried to articulate both Mebane's disappointments and successes so far in the piece "The Existential Pleasure of Engineering Beta."
    I actually think he's is one of the more prominent figures in the fund industry today, particularly exchange traded fund industry.
    Certainly not by AUM.
    But in his ability to distill complex and breakout investment strategies (at least for the common investor) into terms we can understand. Then, his attempts to employ them via ETFs.
    I first came across his work in the standout paper on timing methods, entitled "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation."
    Then, his books Ivy Portfolio, Shareholder Yield, and Global Value. All straight-forward, unpretentious, transparent...yet innovative.
    All must reads. (But granted, I'm a fan.)
    Scott (our jewel of a contributor on the board) was person that alerted me to GTAA and its disappointing performance.
    I attribute it to three main factors: 1) all-asset (aka "Ivy League") have performed pretty poor over the period since GTAA started, 2) AdvisorShares excessive fee structure, and 3) volatility in commodities and foreign equity also likely detracted, since timing does best in trending markets versus short-term gyrations.
    Certainly, the new Cambria ETFs address the fee issue. Its fees are considerably less the those charged by AdvisorShares.
    Time will tell on the other two factors!
    A one month drop (or rise) in GVAL should not really concern an investor, since the long-haul strategy looks to benefit from undervalued companies in undervalued countries (aka hated companies in hated countries). So, expect a bumpy ride.
    And, SYLD seems to be doing quite well.
    Hey none of this helps much, I know, if you happen to be holding a fund that is doing poorly. Trust me, no matter how many times M* told me Dodge & Cox employed a time-proven value strategy with experienced staff, low cost, shared incentive, high integrity, and share-holder friendly policies...none of that helped me to stomach its performance in 2008 or even late 2011.
    Well, after it recovered, maybe it did.
    At the end of the day, David encourages us to call attention to funds trying to do good things, especially smaller and younger ones. I certainly think Cambria qualifies.
    Again, these are young funds, and time will tell if the strategies and their implementation pay-off in satisfactory excess returns. But, if they don't, we will be first to call attention to it.
    Hope my rambling helps explain a little.
    (Hey, what to you think of championing a policy that financial writers must be invested in any fund they recommend? Ha!)
  • DoubleLine Attracts $2.38 billion Net Inflows In October, Record For Year
    As Max points out from time to time, it's kind of a mystery how DBLTX has ~ 15x the AUM as DBLFX.
  • Which long short funds are not struggling this year?
    Very interesting, Charles. The M* analyst report for GONIX (assuming the details are accurate) has a good description of the strategy.
    Basically, it's designed to be 25% net long (120 long, 95 short, but with such a tiny beta that it falls into the M* market neutral category). They do a quant sort on adjusted cash flow and earnings for a universe of 2,000 U.S. stocks, and then, based on the rankings they come up with from doing their preferred math, go long the highest-rated 400+ and short the lowest-rated 400+.
    I've never looked into MN funds much before, so have no idea how this approach compares to others, but from a quick view, I'm thinking this one at least bears watching, on the off chance they'll eventually make retail shares available at less than outrageous cost.
    GARIX, the long-short fund, goes 60% long using the same methodology, with ~ 400 long and 300 short positions.
    I do like this wave of quant and rules-based strategies that have been coming out over the last few years.
    Thanks for the reference,
    AJ
  • Which long short funds are not struggling this year?
    total assets of GARIX are 1.2B after being available since May 2013!
    GARIX has 2.7B
    GONIX has 0.75B since August 2013.
  • Closed-End Funds from Mutual Fund Managers
    it's still a regular IPO process with 5% underwriting fee and over-allotment shares (support). It takes around 45 days to get rid of the premium most of the time. under certain market conditions and in several "star" offerings, premium might only increase over and above 5%, but it is indeed a rare occasion.
    underwriting fees are paid by investors who get access via financial advisors associated with the underwriting, most notably UBS, MS, BAC.
    for a semi-educated investor, the time to buy after the IPO premium has disappeared. it could be due to the price going down or due to exceptional performance of the NAV catching up with the price.
    My understanding of the ipo issue with CEFs: There are costs to bring a new closed end fund to the market. Those costs are borne by those who purchase the initial public offering. When I looked into it years ago, those costs averaged approx. 5%. So at the time, most closed end funds, at the ipo prior to the first trading day, were priced roughly 5% above the NAV, due to those costs.
  • Which long short funds are not struggling this year?
    The ones by Gotham Funds.
    GARIX. GENIX. And, market neutral, GONIX.
    Juiced-up. revamped versions of Formula Investing Funds, which were based on the great book "The Little Book That Beats The Market."
    Here's summary through 3Q since inception for each of three young (and very expensive) Gotham offerings:
    image