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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Altegies: Forget Active Long-Only Strategies, Go Long/Short
    I've slowly come to the conclusion that Ted and a few others are right. These funds add nothing to a diversified portfolio. They in general, do not out-perform a decent balanced fund. If you have to be right twice, in an up market and in a down market, your odds are very slim the manager can pull it off. If you look, most of these funds are only decent in one market or the another. I was sold on RGHVX when it looked great over the last couple years. But it had no protection in a down market based on the latest slow down.
    A bond substitute? Pick a conservative balanced fund with 15-30% stocks. A little spice to a portfolio? Say you put 10% into one of these funds for spice or protection. In a down-turn they may save you a 10% drop over equities. So your portfolio is down 1% less. Big deal. You will get that back when the market moves up again.
    Nope, I'm convinced now these "interesting and intriguing" funds were a marketing ploy feeding off investors fears of the last great recession.
  • For Mutual Funds, How Much Cash Is Too Much ?
    FYI: (Click On Article title At Top Of Google Search)
    Managing a mutual fund’s cash balance is a tricky balancing act.
    Hold too much cash and short-term returns can lag behind peer funds, especially in bull markets. Operate with too small a buffer, however, and long-term results can suffer. With too few dollars on hand, a portfolio manager can be forced to sell promising holdings during any market downswing to pay those who want to jump ship.
    Nowadays, there are some estimable value funds with very high cash levels, in large part because they fear that stocks are too expensive.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=for+mutual+funds+how+much+cash+barron's&oq=for+mutual+funds+how+much+cash+barron's&gs_l=hp.3...1510.15042.0.15408.39.36.0.3.3.0.207.2261.35j0j1.36.0....0...1c.1.58.hp..8.31.1866.WJhUeOtNyhk
  • Biotech ETFs are Red Hot.
    @JohnChisum, you're right, I looked at MATFX. MEASX, MSMLX and MJFOX are in the same neighborhood, and the big winner to my great surprise was MCSMX, which has 22.4% in small-cap Chinese healthcare. That's pretty good, and I would expect/hope for China to get a big allocation if there was an EM or Asia focused healthcare fund, but I'm not struggling for exposure to China generally.
    @scott, interestingly, two frontier market funds I own, WAFMX and MEASX, both have investments in Abbott Labs Pakistan. Considering its 5-year average return is 51.18% (according to M*) I guess that's a somewhat more exciting connection to ABT.
    I think you could make a great investment thesis out of either EM or Asia-specific healthcare, as a play on the size of the population, as a play on the increasing middle class, as a play on aging, as a play on exposure to the local economies rather than what they can export to the developed world, in a somewhat defensive sector (although maybe not as much in the developing world). Its all the goodies in one bag with an investment product that isn't available anywhere from what I can tell, at least to the general investing public. Maybe I'm overlooking some big things, though. Maybe the rising middle class will spend a little of their extra money on healthcare but most of it on nicer clothes, or better food, or an iPhone.
    I'm just struck by what JC was saying about the people who go work abroad and come home with expectations. I actually know this from a slightly different perspective because my wife is from a country that was behind the iron curtain and when I started paying for private rather than public medical and dental care, she suddenly realized the care she had received her entire life was pretty bad. Her expectations have changed completely.
    I did write to Matthews a few hours ago and I'll write a note when/if they respond.
  • Biotech ETFs are Red Hot.
    Is anyone aware of any funds or ETFs focused on Asian healthcare?
    EMDD and ECON are EM consumer names, but unfortunately offer little (EMDD) or nothing (ECON) in the way of healthcare. Abbott Labs (ABT) in the US is a very boring way of playing healthcare and nutrition in EM, as around 45% of
    their business (and growing) is EM.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2464675-abbott-laboratories-an-emerging-markets-growth-play-with-increasing-dividends
    EM or Asia-specific healthcare would make for a great ETF or mutual fund.
  • Biotech ETFs are Red Hot.
    @John Chisum: My two Health Care Funds !
    Regards,
    Ted
    PRHSX= 26.24% YTD
    FBTCX= 28.15% YTD
  • Retirement Isn't A Pipe Dream--And Here's How To Make It Happen
    Retirement is a programed life style, "stop working" because you have enough money, has nothing to do with "retirement"
    ie you might quit work at 35yo after you have made your first $5 million, does that mean your retired? or are you doing other things besides working?
    Picture "retirement" is that the 35yo?
    Stop working is not "retirement"
  • The Closing Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Set Records
    FYI: U.S. stocks surged Friday, with the Dow hitting an intraday record, joining a rally in Asian and European shares that was spurred by the Bank of Japan ’s decision to unexpectedly expand its stimulus measures.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-surge-after-boj-eases-policy-1414757940
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
  • WisdomTree
    Declared a quarterly dividend and the stock is up 23%. I was a little surprised that they did not pay dividend before, considering their philosphy of investing in companies paying dividends :-)
    http://ir.wisdomtree.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=879584
  • Junk Bond Bulls Outlast October Swoon As Losses Wiped Out
    True. But, most HY, active managed funds remain flat/neutral at this time for pricing.
    If the pricing remains the same going forward for a sustained period, an investor may still find a yield range of 5-6%. The capital appreciation may not be in place as during the past several years.
    Today (with the crazy upward moves in global equity markets) may provide some more clues for the HY sector. Although one should consider that if the flows to equities remains strong, some of these monies may not travel the HY road right now.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Retirement Isn't A Pipe Dream--And Here's How To Make It Happen
    FYI: The idea of retirement is scary to many, especially those without a traditional pension. But at last week's Bogleheads meeting -- which gathered 250 fans of Jack Bogle, founder of low-cost index-fund-focused mutual fund company Vanguard -- investors focused on how to make it to retirement.
    Retirement is possible, said the consensus. Not easy, but possible. Here's advice from 11 mutual fund managers, authors, financial advisors and ordinary people about how you can save enough to quit.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/12933449.html
  • Gold Slumps, Tests 1,200 Level
    A link to the Greenspan story mentioned by rjb112
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102136750
    Very Interesting
  • Exploring Gold Miners, Emerging-Market Stocks
    Good points bee, fundalarm, scott.
    I just posted this in another thread. Wonder if anyone has a comment:
    How is anyone going to be a successful investor in gold?
    Gold peaked at $875/ounce in January 1980. So there was a major run up till that point and people did extremely well.
    Then it went down in value for 21 years, losing somewhere around 65% on a nominal basis, and probably lost around 90% if you take inflation into account.
    Then it had a major run up from about 2001 thru 2012, peaking around $1900. Now it's back to $1200.
    MFOers, How is anyone supposed to invest in this asset class successfully?
    By the way, Alan Greenspan is now saying that it would be good to own gold now!
  • Gold Slumps, Tests 1,200 Level
    How is anyone going to be a successful investor in gold?
    Gold peaked at $875/ounce in January 1980. So there was a major run up till that point and people did extremely well.
    Then it went down in value for 21 years, losing somewhere around 65% on a nominal basis, and probably lost around 90% if you take inflation into account.
    Then it had a major run up from about 2001 thru 2012, peaking around $1900. Now it's back to $1200.
    MFOers, How is anyone supposed to invest in this asset class successfully?
    By the way, Alan Greenspan is now saying that it would be good to own gold now!
  • Sears Has a Deal to Offer Its Shareholders
    Oy vey. So much financial engineering. So much absurdity. If Fairholme and Lampert love Sears so much, take the thing private already and stop all the nonsense. Short sellers will be back because they know Christmas isn't going to be any better because there's no real interest in improving the underlying business whatsoever. And the bonds they're offering are unsecured? Gee, where can I sign up to get unsecured bonds from a retailer in bad shape?
    So dismaying, can't just run a solid business today, have to engage in this sort of nonsense - which inevitably gets bigger and more utterly ridiculous the weaker the underlying business becomes.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2601325-as-the-sears-canada-rights-approach-zero-a-risk-emerges
  • Sears Has a Deal to Offer Its Shareholders
    Thanks Maurice,
    I will reread again after a few 5 O'clockers...
  • Exploring Gold Miners, Emerging-Market Stocks
    VGPMX testing its 2008 low at today's close.
    Article presents a half truth with this quote:
    "The mining stocks benefit from leverage to the metal. As a result, a 2% allocation to precious-metals equities equates to a roughly 5% allocation to bullion"
    Doesn't leverage also work in the opposing direction?
    My quote would read something like:
    "The mining stocks are equally harmed as benefited from leverage to the metal. A PM equity investor has had to endure roughly 2.5 times the volatility compared to bullion"
    A $10K investment in VGPMX in 2004 would have grown to $36K by 2008, a 260% gain. Over that same four year period GLD rose to $21.7K or roughly 117%. (The authors claim) of PM equities exhibited beneficial leverage over this timeframe is true, but by 2009 VGPMX valuation fell from its $36k high to a low of $9K, a drop of about 75%. During that same time period GLD's valuation went from $21.7K to $15.8K, a drop of about 25%.
    This same dynamic has repeated itself over the last 3.5 years where GLD dropped roughly 33% from its high in April of 2011 while VGPMX dropped close to 66%.
    Leverage happens in both directions and often cuts fast and hard on the downside.
    image
  • Portfolio Review - Your comments/suggestions
    Fundalarm,
    Responding to all of you separately so that I won't end up with a big message.
    I sold out all my bond funds a while ago and in cash now. Sorry, I did not provide that info, and I should have done that.
    Burnt my fingers in 2000-02 downturn by investing in stocks, and converted to funds completely from 2005-06 (transition period). I am regular at M* forums since 2005 and at fundalarm/MFO from 2006. What I am saying is I am not a novice investor to follow the crowd. I invested in CGMFX as a speculative play, after its putrified performance, and after all the performance chasers left. Since that fund like feast or famine, I stayed in it for 3 years before I quite no loss or no gain.
    I am of same age as you.
    Have not checked portfolio in X-ray in the recent past but I do that on frequient basis, being a regular visitor of M*. I play around with their tool once in a while. This portfolio is purely a retirement one. Too many funds because these are across 4 accounts of ours. I have thought about consolidating them into two but V'rd does not offer all the funds that I want, which are avaiable in TDA. For example, Artisan funds.
    Finally, close to 75% of the funds are in solid core funds (VDIGX, FPACX, VHGEX, ARTKX, ARTGX, etc.). Obviously Grandeur peak and other EM fund are not part of that core.
  • Portfolio Review - Your comments/suggestions
    Heezsafe,
    Actually there are three gloabl funds. I already spoke about VHGEX.
    Bought GPGOX based on what I read about the managers, not disappoined so far, up 50% since I bought. However, I understand it is a growthy fund and we are in bull market. Bought ARTGX, as I was in ARTKX from 2006 and very happy with the management.
    Invested in VGSTX due to realignment of my portfolio. I have to eliminate sooner than later.