FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/05/norcal-fpa-this-is-your-brain-on-stocks/print/

FYI;
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/30/wild-swings.html?printerFriendly=true

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-may-make-you-less-worried-about-us-stocks-2014-05-30/print?guid=6789FD64-E825-11E3-81A1-00212803FAD6

Scott, like you I have been "sort of sitting on my hands" the last few months. I have been adding a little to existing positions, albeit mostly international. I still have about 9% cash that I would like to put to work, but I'm waiting for an "entry point", that really hasn't come, yet.
I feel like i'm "market-timing" by waiting for a "correction", BUT am I really, or is it just prudent to keep some dry powder ready WHEN (not if) a down-draft comes to the equity markets???
I like your long-term outlook of 5-10 years, it is a very reasonable timeframe and DOES help you to sleep at night.
Matt

@Old_skeet, your portfolio performance seems to be tracking the global balanced fund GBLAX, I suggested a while ago as the right benchmark for your extensive fund collection. Couldn't you just replace your 50+ funds and constant monitoring and buying with just one fund? Granted, it won't be as much fun to talk about... :-)

Anybody building-up cash??
Isn't this slow-bleed upward a little unwarranted? I'm not looking for a 10%-20% correction, but shouldn't we be at a point of a mid-level "correction"? Has the economic data and company profits been that good, looking forward, that a meaningful pull-back isn't in the near future?
Have we as investors become so immune (or complacient) that any bad data is "good" because maybe the "FED" will keep rates low across the board or world banks will follow suit or ????
Just some random thoughts!
Matt

I have been trimming a bit and adding a little to a couple of current positions, but net net I'm raising a little cash.
I have been doing less and less, not only from the standpoint of valuations on some things, but really lack of appealing new ideas and the idea that I don't really want to even add much more to some favorites/best ideas.
I'm just sort of sitting on my hands.
I think there is definitely complacency and you get pullbacks and people freak out and act like "Uh, what's this, isn't the market just supposed to go up only?"
Personally, I focus on what I can view potentially owning for 5-10 years, which makes the day-to-day easier.

Emerging markets are one of the sectors that I have been buying around the edges since this past summer, not quite a year now. My total return thus far has been a little better than seven percent since I opened the position and with my continued buying in baby steps as I averaged in. I am now one step away from building out the position. In addition, this is one of my low p/e ratio ventures. Thus far ... so good.
I give a good bit of credit for me opening this position to Ron Rowland's Invest With An Edge weekly newsletter. Emerging markets were at the bottom of the Global Edge for a good while and I took this as a contrian (out of favor and low p/e) move when I ventured into it.
In addition, my thinking is this is one way the small retail investor can succeed by not swimming with the sharks (High Frequency Trading Crowd) and that is to find out of favor themes, follow them, and then invest in them while they are out of favor and on the rebound.
I have provided a link to Mr. Rowland's site where you can view historical issues of the newsletter by clicking on the newsletter archives tab. Perhaps, you might discover some out of favor themes to follow and invest in should there be a fit for same within your own portfolio. You also might wish to view the Leadership Strategy tab as I have found this strategy to be of benefit too.
http://investwithanedge.com/
Year-to-date my portfolio is up 5.04% while the Lipper Balanced Index is up 3.89% and a fifty/fifty portfolio (stocks and bonds) is up, by my math, 4.82%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing".
Old_Skeet

And if anyone has been wondering what the Smart Money crowd has been doing--- as opposed to what they are blathering--- this probably won't surprise you (or maybe it will):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-29/primary-dealers-and-banks-bash-treasurys-here-what-they-are-really-doing

I did find a summary sheet:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1311981/000116204414000519/adiron497ad201405.pdf
which was filed prior to the other link I posted above.
I am posting a link below to all of the Adirondack filings (hopefully, it works). Look for the recent 497AD (I think most are PDFs) and 497 filings for additional information.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001311981&action=getcompany

Found this recent filing which may be of some interest about the fund:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1311981/000116204414000552/adiron497ad201405.pdf

Hi Cman,
Thank you for replying.
You are absolutely correct that I erroneously concluded that the Sharpe paper said “Nowhere does Sharpe argue that active fund managers must purchase only Index stocks.” He made no such assertion.
When I wrote that line I was thinking of the global aspects of his analysis; hence I immediately followed with “His analysis addresses the global market.”. I should have said “My interpretation addresses the global market.”
As you, and many others point out, it depends on where boundaries are drawn. I draw the boundaries with regard to this specific topic around the entire equity marketplace. Neither passive or active investors can be perfectly assigned to each category. Today, even Vanguard’s S&P 500 Index fund does not precisely duplicate its benchmark. At last count, it held 504 positions.
My extremely simple position is best represented by my conservation of returns argument. Any costs and fees are leakage from an individual investors rewards. The cut of the equity annual return’s pie is reduced by the cost drainage.
The integrated excess profits from successful active fund managers, who do exist, are swamped by the integrated below market returns from unsuccessful active managers. The differential is the moneys that active managers and other Wall Street entities expropriate.
That is a summary of the main theme of my post. I choose to draw my conservation circle around all large and small cap holdings.
I am still experiencing difficulties posting and have shortened my comments to secure access.
Best Wishes.

If I remember correctly, Hartman flip-flopped twice within a month or so, right?

Lol, he flip flops constantly. He's also always talking about how he's long commodities in other currencies and the currency seems to be changing every other day. The best is when he's on "Fast Money" and he says something and the people on that show look like they really, really want to say something or question him but they never do.
Gartman has also had three ETFs delisted in two different countries and yet no one says squat. That's what I hate about the financial media - bad performance is never, ever questioned. You just get a cushy gig spouting nonsense every other day.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2187533-lights-going-out-for-off-and-onn

FYI:
Regards,
http://online.wsj.com/articles/stock-futures-inch-higher-ahead-of-gdp-data-1401365716#printMode
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Leading Sectors; http://finviz.com/groups.ashx

http://www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm
Nowhere does Sharpe argue that active fund managers must purchase only Index stocks. His analysis addresses the global market.

Wrong. From his own definition at the very beginning in the linked paper.

Of course, certain definitions of the key terms are necessary. First a market must be selected -- the stocks in the S&P 500, for example, or a set of "small" stocks. Then each investor who holds securities from the market must be classified as either active or passive.
A passive investor always holds every security from the market, with each represented in the same manner as in the market.

He doesn't care what the market is or how big it is as long it is a closed system as defined in his framework above. The mathematical result is valid only relative to a passive investor (you can call it an index) that holds every stock in the "defined market".
Which means the active investor can only buy from that defined universe that is held by the passive investor
In addition, as shown by a simple example, in the thread you are responding to, the condition " each represented by the same manner as in the market", it is valid only with an unstated interpretation - that the aggregate composition of holdings of all the participants together of the market are in proportion to the market cap. This is not true in reality, obviously.
Appeal to authority is not good argumentation as opposed to showing a real understanding of the actual paper and addressing the actual points. Even Nobel laureates have made errors or as in this case actual theoretical results over-generalized for reality by supporters.

While it's not described as such (and oddly, not in that category on M*), this would appear to be simply a managed futures fund and not a real great one. The last few years have not been that great for managed futures as a strategy, but - as I've discussed in past threads - I really don't think managed futures works in the mutual fund format.
Really just sort of an "it is what it is".

PQTIX has been working well so far.

It actually has. I'll have to take a look at the holdings when it is released.
"IIRC, Andrew Low said that almost all portfolios should have 5-20% of the assets in managed futures. [He might have said liquid alternatives, but my recollection is that he said managed futures]."
I have nothing against managed futures, which is often some degree of trend following long or short, but 20% is insane, especially the kind of managed futures MFs, most of which update maybe once a month and then are consistently whipsawed. While I recommend alternatives, I really don't think there's a need for managed futures for mutual fund holders. There are some good managed futures hedge funds that have far more infrastructure and can be far more nimble.
Take a look at RYMFX, the first managed futures fund. It was one of the few things that was up in 2008, then afterwards - aside from a little comeback lately - has just been drifting lower.
The AQR fund has certainly done better, but overall is down slightly since inception in 2010.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RYMFX+Interactive#symbol=RYMFX;range=my
The new Pimco fund has certainly had a good start, but I just think the strategy is going to have periods when it works and periods when it doesn't.

That chart is one for the ages.
I think I'm recalling right that Consuelo Mack never asked Andrew L. about his record on the alt strategy he was touting during the May 2 WealthTrack program.

+++++
I saw the Consuelo Mack interview, and no, I don't recall him being asked his record. I should say though, I'm a big fan of Consuelo Mack.....
But he was asked something that Consuelo Mack asks all her guests: Something to the effect of
'What is the one investment you would recommend for nearly all portfolios?'
IIRC, Andrew Low said that almost all portfolios should have 5-20% of the assets in managed futures. [He might have said liquid alternatives, but my recollection is that he said managed futures].
I was stunned by that recommendation. Later I spent a few minutes reading about his fund and about managed futures. How could you possibly put 20% of your portfolio in an investment that you couldn't explain in simple, understandable terms? Like investing in a black box, shrouded in mystery.

The ER is a little too high, but otherwise, what's not to like? I cannot help but to let you see one of my own small-cap funds: MSCFX. I'm pleased with it. Lower ER. (The other small-cap fund we own is NAESX, an Index fund from Vanguard. It's in wife's 403b.)......
As far as annual pay-out, ADKSX wins, hands-down, for 2013. It paid a LOT more than MSCFX and NAESX in '13. But I don't think that can be sustained, year after year. PRSVX is a TRP offering with quite low ER for an actively managed fund. But I think its performance is sub-par. And all of the ones I've just mentioned are listed by Morningstar as small-BLEND. But ADKSX is categorized as small-VALUE. And ADKSX does not have big bets in its top 5 holdings--- less than 10% of holdings are there..... You just introduced me to a fund I did not know about, before. Thanks.

Tech 19% now/35% Then
http://image.slidesharecdn.com/internettrends2014-052814-pdf-140528064345-phpapp02/95/slide-23-1024.jpg?cb=1401289564
Primer;
http://seekingalpha.com/news/1774853-meekers-2014-report-touches-on-mobile-growth-google-facebook-arpus
Plenty more Tech info @
http://s3.amazonaws.com/kpcbweb/files/85/Internet_Trends_2014_vFINAL_-_05_28_14-_PDF.pdf?1401286773

Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Editor's Corner
Stocks At New Highs, Or Not
Ron Rowland
There are numerous market benchmarks, and depending on which one you follow, the market may or may not be at a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is probably the most widely “known” stock index in the world, but it didn’t close at a new high yesterday, although it was less than 40 points away from doing so. Given that 100-point swings are common for this index, and its actual high occurred just two weeks ago, it is acceptable to say the Dow is trading at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 is the most widely “tracked” index in the world. It finished Friday, yesterday, and today at all-time closing highs. Everyone loves round numbers, and the S&P’s flirtation with the 1900 level the past couple of months became reality last Friday. Both the S&P and the Dow recovered their financial crisis bear market losses in early 2013. Therefore, being in new high territory is not a recent event for these two indexes but has been the status quo for more than a year.
Other popular indexes are unable to make similar claims. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks was hitting new highs for most of 2013 and into the first quarter of 2014. It then experienced a 9% correction, and its recent upswing still leaves it more than 5% shy of a new record-high. The plunge taken by the Nasdaq Composite Index early this century remains the stuff of legend. It has been more than 14 years since the Nasdaq has registered a new high, and it needs another 19% gain in order to erase its deficit.
U.S. stocks account for only 48% of worldwide equity capitalization, making the inclusion of international indexes mandatory to this discussion. The most popular benchmark of foreign stock prices is the Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia, and Far East (“MSCI EAFE”) Index. It established an all-time high nearly seven years ago and needs another 22% advance to recover from the financial crisis. If you add in the seven years of dividends, the gap is almost closed. The lifetime high for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index coincided with the EAFE Index back in October 2007. From a percentage perspective, emerging market stocks need to gain about 29% before they are again at new highs.
Depending on your benchmark, possibilities range from stocks trading at new highs for more than a year to needing gains of another 29% before reaching a new high. The next time your favorite news outlet declares the stock market closed at a new high, be sure you know which index they used for the declaration and understand not all markets are able to make the same claim.
Sectors
All sector categories but one gained momentum since our last update. Real Estate maintains its top ranking for a second week with Energy duplicating the feat for second place. Technology was the big winner, jumping five places to land in third. Internet stocks and small cap semiconductor firms were the driving forces behind Technology’s surge. Telecom was the lone category failing to gain momentum, although it managed to hold its relative strength slide to just one slot. Materials held steady in 5th while Consumer Staples slipped two spots to 6th. Industrials, Health Care, and Utilities jockeyed positions, with Industrials now leading the trio. Financials and Consumer Discretionary were the only two sectors in the red a week ago. Today, they join the others on the positive side of the ledger.
Styles
The style categories were looking grim a week ago with more red ink (or pixels) than green. Micro Cap was registering negative momentum with three times the magnitude of Large Cap Value’s positive strength. This week, there is an across the board improvement, most notably among the weakest categories. Mega Cap moved up from second and wrestled the top spot away from Large Cap Value. The next four categories are in a dead-heat, with Large Cap Value, Mid Cap Value, Large Cap Blend, and Large Cap Growth all staking a claim on second place. The bottom six categories kept their same relative positions, although their momentum scores improved substantially. Small Cap Value managed to flip back to the positive side, and Small Cap Blend is on the verge of doing the same. Small Cap Growth and Micro Cap have been the two weakest styles and in the red for eight continuous weeks, but if they can hold on to their recent gains they could soon be in the green.
Global
The eight-week reign of Latin America came to an end this week with Emerging Markets ascending to the throne. The U.K. improved one position as Latin America’s momentum decline pushed it down to third. Canada and Pacific ex-Japan, two natural resource rich categories, held their relative positions. World Equity and EAFE swapped places, as did the U.S. and Europe. China gained strength, which counteracted the weakness of Latin America and helped Emerging Markets move to the top. Last week we discussed the disappointing performance of Japanese stocks in 2014. Apparently, Japan took our input as constructive criticism and put together four consecutive days of gains. In the process, it moved to positive momentum and erased its distinction of being the one category that has been seeing only red since January.
Note:
The charts above depict both the relative strength and absolute strength of various market sectors, styles, and geographic locations on an intermediate-term basis. Each grouping is sorted (top to bottom) by relative strength. The magnitude of the displayed RSM value is a measure of absolute strength, which is our proprietary method of measuring and reporting the intermediate-term strength as an annualized value.
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FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/28/emerging-market-rally-in-perspective.html?printerFriendly=true