MY reflection: I will make money in the stock market in 2015, how much? I don't know,
What %, don't care, but I will do everything in MY control to insure I reach certain Goals, I will check on my fund managers and be sure they are doing their best (job) to make me money, I will check that my companies are making increasing profits and revenues and dividends, that my bonds are paying better than avg. returns.......
What investment firms THINK will happen is of no concern, and most often contradicting garbage

Great idea for a thread. Thanks @mrc70.
I liked the forecast from Blackrock. Lots of detail and reasoning. Ivy Funds also had a good presentation. Some of the others, most notably Fidelity, seem to hedge their predictions.
I agree with the premise that interest rates might stay low for 2015. Also that technology and biotech will continue to grow. The ApplePay system as well as other smart type pay systems will take off in 2015. I just read where a number of gas stations will start accepting ApplePay. This area is ripe for growth.

Sorry, lazy to recreate the thread here, I am posting the link to the thread I created at M* pulling the Investment Outlook from various firms (Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Ivy, Fidelity, Trow Price, etc.) into once place.
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/344751/3605151.aspx#PageIndex=1

(Shrug.)
I think the market's in a place where there are sectors that are more noticeably undervalued (energy), a good deal that's probably around fair value and some that are overvalued (consumer staples, for example - plus, REITs concern me a bit.) In terms of REITs, I'm not selling the ones I own, but I would not add here. As for consumer staples, I do like the sector in theory quite a bit, but not at the valuations that things like Church and Dwight, Colgate and P & G are at.
I think ultimately 2015 will be up, but it will be a more difficult and volatile climb than 2014. It will also be more of a stockpicker's market (although I dislike that phrase.)
I don't share the enthusiasm of Russell, although I respect his experience. If someone is going to "enter the market" at this point they'd best do so very slowly and have a long-term time horizon.

Thanks @bee. There does seem to be a general thinking that this market will have a good 2015. I think that's true for the first part. The usual tendency when we come off a good year are expectations of another one as the circumstances have not changed. Human optimism I suppose. We shall know in a years time.

I don't pay to read his newsletter, but here's a few excerpts from linked article:
"Veteran stock forecaster Richard Russell, editor of the Dow Theory Letters, predicts the U.S. market is about to enter the third — and possibly the most profitable — phase of an epic bull market.
Russell says his 60 years of experience in financial markets tells him his optimistic outlook is on the mark for 2015.
"Is it too late to enter the market? Investors should remember that stocks often advance as much in their third phase as they did in the first and second phases combined. Like a giant magnet, the US stock market is in the process of attracting money from all over the world," he writes.
Russell-stock-market-bull

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Slant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-02/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-after-s-p-500-december-decline.html
Reuters Slant: http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USKBN0KB0PR20150102
MarketWatch Slant: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-pare-losses-at-days-end-still-down-for-the-week-2015-01-02/print
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

I thought that's what you might be using, but the 23 I got included only two midcaps and a small cap - the rest were large caps. So I saw 20 US large blend, growth, or value.
FWIW (and remembering that this omits the Goldman Sachs fund):
1. MRLIX
2. BRLGX - you highlighted
3. BUFDX
4. CPEAX
5. CLPAX
6. DSEEX - notice that the institutional class (the "distinct portfolio") outperformed DSENX
7. GTLLX
8. LEVIX
9. NCADX - you mentioned in text
10. PARWX - you highlighted
11. PEWIX - you highlighted
12. RYOCX
13. SDLAX - you highlighted
14. NASDX
15. TGFVX
16. USNQX
17. VCNIX
18. VHCOX
19. VPCCX - you highlighted
20. VPMCX - you highlighted
Even if we exclude DSEEX, there are still 19 distinct funds.
I'm guessing is that your screen wasn't for US Large Cap Growth -or- US Large Cap Blend -or- US Large Cap Value.
Rather, if one screens for US Funds -and- funds with current equity style of large cap, one gets 18 funds.
CLPAX is missed, because it has a short history, and is currently just south of large cap. But M* calls it a large cap blend fund. DSEEX is missed because M* doesn't have any equity style data for the fund.
Obviously one can screen however one wants. Knowing precisely what screen was used helps to understand which funds might have been inadvertently excluded. That's a point you were making where you wrote about the limitations of screening on risk.

Hi Guys,
A few days ago MFOer Tampabay recorded that he was rooting for a Florida State win in the Rose Bowl. He was disappointed: Oregon 59 over Florida State 20. It was a disaster and not an especially well played game.
But it was not an unexpected disaster. I suspect that Tampabay’s enthusiasm was prompted by home-state loyalty, and not a careful analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the competing teams. That’s a dangerous way to lay a wager or to conduct business.
Until the second-half of the Rose Bowl contest, Florida State had prospered from an unprecedented outlier-like string of comeback victories. No team can tempt defeat so often, and yet emerge with a late rally win in a consistent manner. Luck had to be a major factor. Florida State is just not that exceptional or talented.
And luck changes instantaneously at unpredictable, unexpected, and unwelcomed moments.
Florida State suffered their upset moment on New Year Day. Simply put, the Florida State team experienced a regression-to-the-mean. All good things must come to an end, to a reversion to more normal outcomes.
What is true in sports is equally true in the investment world. Outlier rewards are not sustainable. That’s why loading a portfolio with last year’s winners is most likely a loser’s game. The issue is not if a reversal will occur, but when that turnabout will happen. It will surely happen.
Nothing demonstrates this happening more clearly in the investment option world than the famous Periodic Table of Returns that is issued in many formats. I have discussed these illuminating Tables in many earlier MFO postings.
The evidence strongly suggests that forecasting future returns is an unfathomable task. That insight is embedded in the historical data sets themselves. It is nicely summarized in the various Periodic Table of market Returns charts. Here is a Link to the Callan Periodic Table:
https://www.callan.com/research/files/757.pdf
Here is a Link to the MSCI Sector performance Periodic Table:
http://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/MSCI_USA_Sector_Indices_Returns_and_Volatilities.pdf
I have posted these references earlier, but they do need repetition to make the point memorable.
Financial writer Ben Carlson just published a column on this same subject. He titled the piece “Updating My Favorite Performance Chart”. Here is a Link to it:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/
I too consider this chart one of my favorites. It presents extremely broad asset class returns over a 10-year period.
The chart once again illustrates the random nature, the patternless character, the ramblings of the various major asset classes over the last decade. Good luck on consistently picking these winners ahead of time.
This is a big reason why active mutual fund managers have such a challenging task to outdistance an appropriate benchmark. It adds another dimension to investment risk. Forecasters can’t forecast with any reliability. It’s that reason plus the additional handicap of higher expenses in several directions that dampen active mutual fund returns. There’s an easy lesson here.
Please give the chart a little time. It’s worth the effort, and just might contribute to a more profitable 2015. I hope so. Good luck and good health to all.
Best Regards.

I had only 2 that beat the S&P500 this year:
Janus Contrarian JSVAX +17.32%
Bridgeway Aggressive Growth + 14.99%
Now, having dutifully answered the question at hand, I have 2 related questions:
1. Why did the big Vanilla Indexes do so well in 2014?
2. Why have they done so badly over the past 15 years? ( e.g. VOO +4.24% annualized)

Looks like PRBLX (14.48 per Parnassus, 14.49 per M*) beat the S&P but not DSENX (17.70 per M*), but the other Parnassus large cap U.S. fund, PARWX, beat both (18.50 M*, 18.51 Parnassus).
Also, VFTSX, Vanguard's SRI index fund based on the S&P, beat Vanguard's version of the full standard index (15.75 vs. 13.64 per M*), and leads it for 3 and 5 years now too. Lower fossil fuel % and a higher health care % probably account for most of the difference.
I own PARWX but not PRBLX, VFTSX, or DSENX (yet ...).

Lipper says SP500 did 13.7% for 2014, M* sez 13.69%. DSENX beat that by 4%. Anyone got a broad large-cap fund whose benchmark is SP500 that beat DSENX? PRBLX did, 14.49%. M* basic screener lists hundreds but with enormous numbers of dupes. It would be interesting to eliminate the dupes and see. My quick look of all discrete large-caps that beat DSENX totals maybe 20, with several Vanguard.

@Charles,
In all fairness, it represents only about 25% of my retirement portfolio, where i have most of my equity exposure. Have no bonds in the IRAs, I hold them in taxable account. That means 75% of my equity exposure (which includes some stocks) did not beat the S + P. I use etfs for some sector additional exposure, hold no S + P or total market indexes. I prefer managed funds despite the odds agains them consistently beating the index

POAGX is the biggest position in my portfolio and I hold HQL, PRHSX and MEASX as well. Unfortunately, and I think Charles got it right, it was a tough year for the other 80% of my funds, even in the few cases when they were large cap funds.
All in all it was a tough year compared to the S&P, but I'll take some comfort in the fact that I was overweight most of the bad places to be this year, small caps especially, but I beat the category average 75% of the time and was in the top 20% of peer funds 55% of the time. Its the consolation prize that hopefully pays some dividends when we look back a few years from now :)

PJP 29.62
RHS 18.82
VNQ 27.85
XLP 15.72
CMTFX 16.97
FBTIX 34.7
FRUAX 25.42
PHSZX 35.42
VPCCX 19.29
Only negative ones were foreign, both developed and emerging, but emerging lost less than last year :)

S & P up 11.4%.
PRWCX (balanced fund) up 12.25% for '14.
MEASX +17.39% for '14.
No, it's not at all "apples to apples."

Suspect not many funds beat the SP500 this year. Applicable comparison or not.
A revenge year for the buy & hold investors =).
And those that didn't think too much.
And, to a the 10-month SMA trend investors.

The two funds that I own which track closest to the S&P 500 index would be FCNTX and YAFFX. Both were not even close.

GASFX = 21%
MINDX = 64%
VGSIX = 30%
GLFOX = 17.6%
OAKLX = 15.4%
TOLSX = 18%

@Old-Skeet: The S&P 500 Index returned 13.69%, 11.39% raw, and 2.3% in dividends. I own 7 funds, of the seven the following 4 beat the S&P 500:
1. FBTCX: 33.35%
2. PRHSX: 31.44%
3. QQQ: 19.16%
4. PFF: 14.10%
----------------
5. SPY: 13.46%
6. VWELX: 9.82%
7 FTHCX 9.62%
Regards,
Ted