Well ...
Today is Tuesday 01/06/2015 about 6:30 AM EST and it seems Morningstar is still having concerns with its portfolio manager system as my portfolio has yet to update as it still reflects Friday January 2nd market closing prices.
For those that use Morningstar's portfolio manager ... My question ... Are you having price updating problems too?
Old_Skeet

I remember this fund being heavily marketed by Aston at the 2011 Morningstar conference. Anytime I walked anywhere near the Aston booth I would be handed an ARIVX fact sheet. Ironically, for one of the lunches Eric ended up being at our table. I couldn't get away from this fund.
I actually invested in ARIVX at inception based on Eric's previous performance at Intrepid Small Cap which I had owned previously. In particular his 07-09 returns at Intrepid were exemplary. It was based on sound stock picking, and moderate cash levels at the end of 08 to take advantage of depressed valuations. I seem to recall the cash level in late 08 was roughly 25%. So much of that performance was due to avoiding toxic sectors.
And at the start, ARIVX behaved well. Portfolio was diverse and at the time a 50% cash position served it well particularly during the small cap implosion of Q3 2011. That's how it achieved the top small cap fund for 2011.
But that success was short lived. Small caps took off in Q4 2011 and quite frankly haven't looked back. ARIVX has since morphed into something unrecognizable. The equity portfolio is no longer broad but narrowly focused with an obsession for materials. And cash is now at an obscene 78%.
I also noticed that assets have been declining, presumably due to redemptions. But what's interesting is that cash percentage has risen as well. So it would seem that some equities are being sold to accomplish that. To me that implies they are not all that confident in the equities they currently hold.
Personally, I couldn't continue to justify paying a 1.41 expense ratio to a 3rd party to manage such a large cash stake. I would just prefer to reduce my own portfolio's small cap allocation if I was that concerned about valuations. I exited ARIVX at the end of 2012.
One other thought - often funds are cited for their performance during bear markets. But we've often seen that not every bear behaves the same. I specifically remember Bridgeway, Dodge & Cox and many others being hyped for their avoidance of the dot com debacle. Only to see them fail miserably in the 08 debacle. Time will tell whether Cinnamond can repeat his bear market performance of 08. I think the opportunity cost of not being invested for 2012-14 will make that difficult.

Forget baseline Vanguard 500 Index Inv VFINX -1.82%

Well done MikeM...

Yes, hope you did not catch blade side.

Understand MikeM.
This is a tough one.
On the one hand, folks bailed on Buffett in 1999. He stayed the same. The world changed.
On the other, I remember when Charles Akre launched AKREX in 2009. He was such a downer. The fund did badly out of the gate. He was still sporting 2008 collapse.
But, quickly realized he was wrong and turned bullish. It served him well...and, investors.
So, question, is world out of whack...or, is Mr. Cinnamond?
And, what is the appropriate time frame to judge? Is it 1 year? (Taking my trend hat off.) Or, 3? Or, 5? The Three Alarm eval periods were 1, 3, and 5 years.
Honestly, I have more of an issue with the fund's expenses than the strategy, but that is true for just about every fund out there.
Here are the Three Alarm stats through November:

@equalizer said;
I can't believe on TDAmeritrade, that you have to sign a PDF and FAX or mail it for recurring mutual fund investments!!
I've had success calling TD reps to set up A I Ps without the paperwork and their stated $150 minimum. You can also make manual Mutual Fund trades in some funds with no minimum,@ least in retirement accts. A good option for small or young investors.

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Down 0.28 Down 1.07% PRWCX 
Franklin Mutual Quest Z Down 0.19 Down 1.17%  MQIFX
Queens Road Small Cap Value Down 0.28 Down 1.18%  QRSVX
BlackRock Global Allocation Inv A Down 0.24 Down 1.21%  MDLOX
Greenspring Down 0.30 Down 1.21%  GRSPX
AMG Yacktman Service Down 0.31 Down 1.24%  YACKX
RiverNorth Core Opportunity R Down 0.15 Down 1.24%  RNCOX
Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Inv Down 0.04 Down 1.26%  GPGOX
Jensen Quality Growth J Down 0.52 Down 1.30%  JENSX Sparkline Chart
And of course the best
Vanguard Health Care Inv Down 1.31 Down 0.62%  VGHCX
I think Greenspring has faltered. PRWCX is just rock solid. JENSX is underrated.

...that it timed well with my automated purchases. Schwab gives the option of automatic purchasing on 5th and 20th of each month; I have several of my long-term mutual funds set to purchase on those dates.

I just set that up at Schwab the other day! I can't believe on TDAmeritrade, that you have to sign a PDF and FAX or mail it for recurring mutual fund investments!! Supposedly, you can invest up to weekly.

...that it timed well with my automated purchases. Schwab gives the option of automatic purchasing on 5th and 20th of each month; I have several of my long-term mutual funds set to purchase on those dates.

Actually OOBY, M* shows over the last 3 years that ARIVX has captured 29% of the upside while taking on 59% of the downside. For 1 year, it looks even worst, 11% upside capture while taking on 69% of downside. Not trying to bash the guy, but the numbers don't lie. Those are some of the worst capture ratio numbers I've ever seen. Hopefully he makes up for those numbers in the next bear.

AMAG up 5%+ for me. Everything else not so good I'm sure. SLB fell to my buy price today. I'm now the proud owner of an oil services company. Okay, just part owner. Hope I didn't catch the blade side of that falling knife.

Rough day!
Only HCP and OAK held up in portfolio today.
Slammed everywhere else.
New word for 2015...contagion.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
WSJ Slant:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-inch-lower-as-oil-prices-slide-1420464561?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Bloomberg Slant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-05/u-s-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed-after-weekly-decline.html
Reuters Slant:
http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USKBN0KE0WF20150105
MarketWatch Slant:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-point-to-lower-open-2015-01-05/print
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

@alaska: SHRAX, over the last 15 years Richy Freeman have beaten the S&P 500 by 2.52%, and the Large-Cap Growth Fund Category by 3.47%. He has managed this fund since its inception in 1983.
Regards,
Ted

Hi Guys,
Thank you for the really nice exchange coupling charts like those generated by Callan and a reversion-to-the-mean investment strategy. A discussion of the merits and shortfalls of those charts and how they can be interpreted to improve investment outcomes was the main purpose of my original post.
I have been familiar with both the Callan charts and the reversion concept for many years. I am a fan of both. About a decade ago I asked myself the same question that is currently being explored on this thread.
Can you exploit the Callan rankings to better your investment returns?
A decade ago I did some analyses on this specific question; my answer was NO. Investing in last year’s top ranking winners or last year’s bottom ranking losers did more poorly than the S&P 500 Index as a benchmark. Unfortunately, I can not find my analyses, so I am reporting results from memory alone. That’s not reliable enough.
The good news is that professional financial organizations have completed similar analyses. These studies are just a little dated but they backstop my own work. One report is from Bearing the Bull that uses a J. P. Morgan chart similar to the Callan study. Here is the reference:
http://bearingthebull.com/2012/02/01/the-callan-conundrum/
This article demonstrates the benefits and the shortfalls of asset allocations. One shortfall is that a diversified portfolio has a low likelihood of reaching the best performance ladder heights. The benefits are that annual losses are never maximized and that portfolio volatility is significantly reduced.
Given that diversification lowers return standard deviations, here is a Link to a short Fidelity report that provides some excellent practical examples:
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/mutual-funds/diversification
By exploring enough options, it is almost always the case that some correlation can be identified that ties one variable to some desired output. Of course, the challenge is to locate a strategy that holds water over the long-term future. It seems like holes always develop in the water buckets and leakage compromises the “great” correlation.
It appears that the Callan-like charts provide no immediate solutions other than the promise that portfolio diversification is a pretty good plan. That’s something. Enjoy the references.
Best Wishes.

I would suggest 40% in Vanguard total stock market or ETF 20% in a municipal bond fund (I don't know much about you but a reference to 100k as fun money suggests at least a fairly high tax bracket. Total stock market is relatively tax efficient and will make sure you are diversified . With the remaining 40% I would make a number of bets(fun of course) you think are wise) These could include sector funds like health care. very management dependent funds that have very few stocks (50 or fewer ) like Oakmark Select,funds investments in frontier market and/or hedged international funds. Note in each case if you make the wrong bet you will underperform and outperform if you are correct.

Gotta respect His opinion (bummer), He's BEEN right too many Times, but I tend to lump all doomsayers in same hat, sooner or later they will be right....but they are wrong MOST of the time, and no backlash, they keep pitching and losing
not ME; I'm going with "making money in 2015" ( Jeff will too) if adjustments necessary? a minor inconvenience...

No worries.
I reached out to the source and here is response from Meb:
From: Mebane Faber
Date: Sun, Jan 4, 2015 at 8:09 PM
Subject: Re: GMOM Question
To: Charles

Just GAA is 0%, rest of ETFs are around 59 to 69 bps...and hopefully declining over time!

Charles I got that from you. Read my 10:15 AM post. This was taken directly from the MFO, Nov. fund discussion. If it's not true than you miss-reported. However I think I've seen that reported elsewhere as well.

Hi alaska.
Couple more questions...
What's your risk tolerance? On a scale 1 to 5. 1 being Very Conservative, hate seeing even slight temporary pull backs. To, 5 being Very Aggressive, which means you're ok with 50-60% drawdowns as long is there is no permanent loss of capital ... and any decline will recover over say 4-6 years.
What's your investment time horizon? 1, 3, 5, 10, or 20 years?
Of the two, the former is probably most important. So, be as sure as humanly possible in your self assessment.
c