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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Flexible Bond Funds Flop As Rate Drop Stings Top Sellers
    FYI: The new generation of bond funds just can’t keep up with your parents’ investments.
    Unconstrained funds, part of a new breed of mutual funds designed with the flexibility to profit in rising and falling markets, returned an average of 1.2 percent in 2014, compared with 5.2 percent for intermediate-term funds, historically the most popular bond investment. The new funds, the best-selling segment of the fixed-income category in 2014, also trailed in the past three and five years, and are behind again in 2015, according to Morningstar Inc.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/flexible-bond-funds-flop-as-rate-drop-stings-top-sellers.html
    M* Unconstrained Bond Fund Returns:
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/nontraditional-bond/$FOCA$NT.aspx
  • RNCOX no longer closed?
    @MFO Members: RNCOX is a very expensive, 2.22% ER , Fund Of Funds that can't beat the S&P 500. My suggestion , take a pass.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Fact Sheet RNCOX:
    http://assets.rivernorth.com/pdf/fact.sheet/2014.q4.rncix.rncox.fact.sheet.cedar.pdf
  • Energy Stocks: Buy Low Or Get Out Of The Way?
    Tough call. Had a poster here a month ago recommending oil at $58 as a sure-fire bet.
    Come to research past posts, and he'd been buying at around $90 a month or so earlier (but said he had "shorted out" of that position as WTI continued falling.) Today, it's closer to $48.
    Deflation is the biggest wild card here and my crystal ball on that subject is badly shattered.
    Based on past cycles ... oil will recover nicely at some future time (measured in years rather than decades).
    ---
    Caught T. Boone Pickens on CNBC this week. He's thinking oil will drop to the low-mid $40s in coming months - but than rebound to $65-$70 by year's end as the effects of domestic curtailment in production take effect and remain around that level. Recommended waiting a bit longer to buy. I've also commented before that it won't hit $40 - and am sticking with that bet. Even at lower prices, major suppliers, like Shell and Exxon, may prosper - as the stuff still needs to be moved, stored, and sold at retail. Unlike the well-head cost, those costs are relatively fixed.
    ---
    I'm overweight this sector and so wrestle with the things that could go wrong. Among the unknowns and worrisome possibilities:
    -Continued global price deflation
    -Global warming (and a shift away from fossil fuels)
    -Fracking (more of it and at lower cost)
    -Alternative energy sources becoming more cost competitive **
    -New technology to extract more energy from a gallon of fuel
    -Less reliance on traditional forms of transit as drones and automated/driverless vehicles expand.(Driverless vehicles would consume less fuel for a number of reasons - especially if carrying no passengers))
    -Use of lighter-weight industrial materials reducing the amount of energy used to transport them.
    **Alternatives: solar, wind, hydro (especially tidal energy), geo-thermal, hydrogen (which can be extracted from water, but at great expense) and advances in nuclear which will reduce or eliminate the hazards commonly associated with it.
  • Push To Tax ‘529’ Plans Stokes Debate
    For a people to succeed, they need to have universal education. It should be free. For our government to be profiting on the backs of students trying to get ahead is unbelievable. Note that these students, by definition, are the poorest, otherwise, they wouldn't need the loans. Yeah, how elitist is this?
    Nopers, higher education should be FREE to anyone able to be admitted and that can maintain good grades.
    Herein lies the problem. Universities of the sort most people think of when they think of "college" exist primarily to produce research and secondarily to produce researchers. They do not exist to educate undergraduates (I'm excluding the sorts of colleges where Professor Snowball is tenured, which exist far more for undergraduate teaching). You want a place where really smart people can exist and not be hassled by everyday life in order to produce cures for awful diseases, and new technologies to make our lives easier, and art that makes our lives more livable, and theories that improve social structures. The model has always relied on undergraduates as a sort of necessary evil to bring in funding and to cull through for more researcher prospects (think about how many tenured professors or grad students you've ever met who say they chose their profession because they wanted to teach -- I'm willing to bet the number will rapidly approach zero). It's an historical anomaly coming out of World War II that created the push for universities to be a sort of vocational training grounds. Universities really aren't set up to do that, and do a pretty poor job of it anyways (how many of you learned everything about your job *on the job*?).
    In any case, if you make tertiary education free, you risk undermining the research aspect of American universities, which, as a whole, represent the single greatest collection of knowledge ever known to mankind (and it isn't close, even to other modern countries).
    One giant reason costs have soared for undergraduates is because it costs a lot of money to conduct good research. A lot of that money used to come from the Federal and state governments, but isn't being provided anymore after tax cuts over the past 20 years. States get left holding the bag when the feds cut funding for mandated programs. Universities are often one of the first place funding gets cut. The cost gets passed on directly to the consumer.
    Another reason is simply that we want our universities and colleges to do and provide more and more, particularly to undergrads. And they simply aren't set up to do that without more capital expenditure. If your primary job is to produce widget x, and suddenly you find yourself having to provide for entirety of the welfare and vocational training of intern y, you have to choose how to allocate your money or come up with a whole bunch of new money by raising costs.
    All of which is to say, at least I finally get where the 529 adjustment is coming from thanks to the article: The Administration wants to close a tax shelter for wealthier Americans that results in their children having a future advantage and is theoretically not available to middle class and poorer students, who end up either taking loans or not going to college because they perceive they can't afford it. That at least is a reason this was proposed (other than Obama likes taxing people). The problem is that the proposal still looks at colleges and universities as primarily educational endeavors and a ticket to making your life better. While it's true that college graduates make far more over their lives then those without a degree, I've never seen anyone actually study whether that's because those with degrees have innate advantages other than the degree.
    What I'd like to hear proposed is a way to move our secondary education system towards a model that teaches more specified learning and vocational skills (and that doesn't have to mean plumbing and car repair. Ask yourself, what does a college know about training people who want to go into business?) When I arrived in the U.K. for grad school, I distinctly remember being shocked at how much better British students were prepared coming out of school than their American counterparts. The level exam system enabled them to already focus on specific subjects they were interested in, and by the time they got to University they were focused on studying one thing only. They didn't need two years of prerequisites because they had them in high school, the time to degree was shorter, and the level of work they were able to do immediately was much higher. As a side note, because tertiary education was free, the University was falling down. It simply couldn't get enough funding from the government to support its very old infrastructure, and couldn't charge students to make up the difference (the college bursar once showed me a report showing how my College was losing L900 a month per student on housing alone because of upkeep). It was also losing top researchers to American couterparts because of facilities and salaries.
    It's great to want an education and to make more money. But 529s aren't a major problem. Unprepared students and their parents wanting universities to cater to them is. Change the model which causes that problem. Create more Community Colleges. Let research universities get back to doing what they do best. And if you want to do something about 529s, do something about the fees which make them useless to most savers.
  • Energy Stocks: Buy Low Or Get Out Of The Way?
    What I have done is to do an Instant Xray analysis on my portfolio to see how much energy I currently own. My findings was that I am currently overweight energy by better than two percent when compared to the S&P 500 Index so I am doing nothing at this time. However, where I have been looking for opportunity is in the minority sectors of materials, real estate, communication services, and utilites to make sure I have at least a five percent weighting in each of them. In this way when they are performing well as real estate and utilities have been of late then they have a greater influence in portfolio performance because of their increased weighting.
    So don't overlook the minority sectors and by overweighting them, over time, I have found to be a good strategy. Currently, I am carrying a double weight in each of them.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Energy Stocks: Buy Low Or Get Out Of The Way?
    FYI: Bargain hunting can be a thrill, but remember that it can also be dangerous.
    Brave investors are picking through energy stocks, looking to buy those pummeled by the plunging price of oil. Billions of dollars flowed into energy stock funds last month, a huge leap from the norm, enticed by prices marked down by 25 percent or more since last summer. But many mutual fund managers and other professional investors have a warning for the bargain hunters: Don’t be surprised if it takes years for the prices of energy stocks to fully recover.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.dallasnews.com/business/personal-finance/headlines/20150119-energy-stocks-buy-low-or-get-out-of-the-way.ece
    M* Equity Energy Fund Returns:
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/equity-energy/$FOCA$EE.aspx
  • John Waggoner: Dogs Of The Dow Can Sniff Out Income
    FYI: Collecting most things — except, say, cobras — is a fun, easy way to spend your time. But one of the hardest things to collect these days is income from your investments.
    Regards
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/23/finding-investment-income/22178431/
    Dogs Of The Dow Website:
    http://www.dogsofthedow.com/
  • Consolidating Mutual Fund help
    About OAKBX - I had owned this fund for over 15 years but recently sold it for a couple of reasons. One, as you mentioned it had started to lag it's peer's on a consistent basis and two, I built my own equity income/dividend income fund to do the same job I had been paying the Oakmark managers to do saving myself those management fees. NO, I do not think that I am smarter or more clever than they are but I could choose equally or less riskier stocks then this fund holds and get paid a higher yield to do so. That increased yield was really what I was after. YMMV
  • Push To Tax ‘529’ Plans Stokes Debate
    Howdy,
    Being a grand father and contributor to two 529, this is on first blush, outrageous.
    I say this because this country and OUR government is making billions of dollars every year on student loans. This is obscene. For a people to succeed, they need to have universal education. It should be free. For our government to be profiting on the backs of students trying to get ahead is unbelievable. Note that these students, by definition, are the poorest, otherwise, they wouldn't need the loans. Yeah, how elitist is this?
    Nopers, higher education should be FREE to anyone able to be admitted and that can maintain good grades.
    What I propose is to apply a surcharge tax to all the S&P 500 corporations of 10% each to fully subsidize higher education. I mean, hey, all we hear is how they big corporations create jobs and are always eager for qualified applicants.
    Time to pony up.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    ronp
  • How To Analyze Mutual Funds
    FYI: Finding and buying the best mutual funds is about much more than past performance or future expectations about economic activity and market movements.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2015/01/analyze-mutual-funds/print
  • Barron's Roundtable Part I: 22 Investment Ideas: Zulauf, Cohen, Rogers, Black
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    If you’re looking for raging bulls or rabid bears, you’ve come to the wrong section of this esteemed publication. But if you’re seeking ways to make sense of perplexing economic times, and money in a market that offers slimmer pickings than in recent years past, stay right where you are.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=getting+down+to+business+barron's&oq=getting+down+to+business+barron's&gs_l=hp.3...1719.12428.0.12722.33.22.0.11.11.0.69.1246.22.22.0.msedr...0...1c.1.61.hp..5.28.1103.q7h7har2WHg
  • Looking for advice on small-cap funds
    >> Meridian Growth (MERDX) [is] among Charles's small cap Great Owls. Meridian Small Cap Growth, run by the guys who managed Janus Triton to a brilliant record, has also taken off like a rocket.
    If you want to see what 'like a rocket' actually means, check the performance of MRAGX, WEMMX, GABSX, and Janus Triton (JGMAX.lw) from 9/5/13, when the brand-new owls took over Meridian, to today. You will see that the Triton fund they departed from has outperformed them even more than they have outperformed Gabelli's two. What does this tell us? Inasmuch as 'owl' connotes wisdom and the long patient view, or something, these ones are short-flight thus far, maybe holding their own.
  • Looking for advice on small-cap funds
    Hi, Whak.
    Meridian Growth (MERDX) and Mairs & Power Small Cap (MSCFX) are among Charles's small cap Great Owls. Meridian Small Cap Growth, run by the guys who managed Janus Triton to a brilliant record, has also taken off like a rocket. Admittedly the fee structure is a bit dodgy.
    If you could imagine the notion of a small cap balanced fund, you might consider Pinnacle Value (PVFIX) which is 50% cash. John's been running the fund for a long while and somehow manages perfectly respectable absolute returns when the market's rising and predictably excellent ones when the market's falling. Every time it trails 95-99% of its peers, it also manages double-digit returns.
    Curious, as ever,
    David
  • Obama Wants To Reduce Tax Breaks For 529 plans
    It seems to me that one of the main problems with this type of discussion is that some participants seem to classify fellow citizens as either "100% self-made men" (whether true or not) and "everyone else", who by definition are therefore no-good lazy scumbags. Interestingly, these folks invariably classify themselves as the 100% self-made type. The dictionary defines "selfish" as: "lacking consideration for others; concerned chiefly with one's own personal profit or pleasure". I leave it to others as to whether that particular definition is appropriate to the type of individuals I've mentioned.
    Perhaps my observations for the past 75 years are not typical, but it has been my experience that there many more than just two types of individuals; rather there is a very broad spectrum of people, with hugely varying degrees of human assets: inherited assets, mental ability, physical ability, and plain old luck. Sure there are no-good bums out there who have chosen not to contribute their fair share to their personal good, to say nothing of the common good. BUT I DO NOT FOR A MOMENT BELIEVE THAT THEY ARE THE MAJORITY of those who need some sort of assistance to allow them to survive.
    To suggest that all it takes for anyone in America to succeed is a little hard work is totally fatuous. This concept of rugged individualism, wherein someone feels that they have absolutely no obligation to spend one tax dollar on anything that isn't a direct immediate personal benefit to them is, in my opinion, just plain sick. I say this as half of a married couple who have no children, but have cheerfully voted for over fifty-five years to support our public schools, common infrastructure, and where reasonable, public assistance to the less fortunate. Does that mean that there is no place for alternatives, such as charter schools? Not at all: depending on the effectiveness of the local school system, alternatives may be a very good thing.
    Additionally, anyone who thinks that our younger people have the same advantages of relatively inexpensive higher education, employment and retirement stability that we older folks enjoyed is living on some other planet.
    I'm under no illusion that this commentary will change one single mind, but at least some things have been said that needed saying.
  • Looking for advice on small-cap funds
    Whakamole....here is a thread from a year ago which may help to address your question. I had bookmarked this at the time, as I had a similar question as yours. It's interesting to take a look at the recommendations, and the performance of the funds.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/5469/small-and-mid-cap-fund-recommendations/p1
    For what it's worth....I chose SCMFX.