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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    Hi crash. I don't want to come off as obnoxious or irritating with personal questions, but the comment about 'a work in progress'; this doesn't need to be a work in progress IMHO (opps, used that terrible term). You have well over 50% in one area of the world, Asia. Should Asia be weighted above average in a portfolio? That is debatable. So why would you wait years to get the balance to a more appropriate mix for a 60 year old? I guess I just don't get it. By the way, I'm 60 also and this portfolio would keep me up at night.
    If you were to move your portfolio to a brokerage, say Schwab, they will give advice and answer questions for you for free. You don't have to except the advice but they would be able to lay out different risk scenarios for you. If you have a brick-and-mortar brokerage in your area where you can sit face to face with someone that's even better. I just think you could assemble a much better risk-reward portfolio now, not waiting for new contributions to get it there. That would probably take many years. Waiting could be hazardous to your wealth.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    Hello. About my bonds:
    DLFNX is domestic bonds, at 2.46% of portf.
    MAINX is at 3.54% "World Bond" category at Morningstar.
    PREMX is EM bonds, at 3.94%
    Domestic funds PRWCX and MAPOX are "balanced" and hold bonds with equities, too.
    :)
    In the "other" category, my best guess is that it's some Treasury "shorts" in MAINX and convertible bonds in MACSX.
  • Morgan Housel - Finance is a Strange Industry
    @MOZART325: The reference to Hussman was as plain as the nose on your face. Thanks for the link.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Morgan Housel - Finance is a Strange Industry
    "The irony is that if you are moderately wealthy, advisory fees might be your single largest annual expense -- and you're probably oblivious to them. You diligently include an $8.99 Netflix subscription in your monthly household budget, but have no idea you're paying 50 times that much to your 401(k) adviser. No other industries work like this."
    If I recall correctly, many years ago John Bogle was saying that he wanted a requirement that mutual fund companies include on each statement the actual dollar amount of expenses for that specific person's account.
    So if a person had a mutual fund account of $100,000 and the expense ratio of the fund was 1.26%, the account statement would say that $1,260 in expenses had been deducted from the account.
    I'd like to see regulations requiring that. Not going to happen, but would be a real eye opener for everyone.
  • Morgan Housel - Finance is a Strange Industry
    Here is the paragraph containing that link. He believes that Hussman's fund is "the worst mutual fund to own over the last 10 years"
    The truth is that finance is filled with people who remain in business despite awful track records. There were 894 mutual funds in 2012 that had been in business in 1998. Of those, only 275 beat their benchmarks. That means more than 600 funds have underperformed what could be achieved in a low-cost index fund, but still remained in business for a decade and a half. The worst mutual fund to own over the last 10 years -- one that has underperformed all of its peers and trailed its benchmark by 150% -- still manages more than $1 billion.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    @Crash, regarding:
    M* Instant X-Ray:
    Cash 4%
    US 20
    Foreign 56
    -Europe Developed 14.63
    -Europe Emerg. 0.46
    -Asia Dev. 11.63
    -Asia Emerg. 23.99
    -Japan 7.76
    -UK 7.56
    -Canada 6.74
    -Ausralasia 3.83
    -Africa/Middle East 2.79
    -Latin America 0.61
    BONDS: 17
    "Other:" 3
    I haven't used that tool personally........I'm not getting a clear picture:
    % US bonds vs. % foreign bonds?
    Looks like you have fixed income: 17% "bonds", 4% cash= 21% fixed income
    Can't tell what "other" is, I don't like when Morningstar uses that term.
    56% foreign stocks, 20% US stocks?
    Just wondering what made you want to be 56% foreign stocks and only 20% US stocks.
    Looks like 74% of your stock allocation [56/76] is foreign stocks.
    A "total world market weighting" would be closer to 50/50, which is close to the allocation in the Vanguard Total World Stock Index fund
    Nothing wrong with being heavily in foreign stocks.
    One day the performance of foreign stocks will trounce the performance of US stocks, and at that time you would be glad you were not 50/50.
    Most US investors have a "home bias" and are weighted/skewed towards US stocks.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    Hello, everyone. I promised an update. Here's my total run-down, after the change, tonight:
    1. MAPIX 23.57% of portfolio Matthews Asia Div.
    2. PRWCX 18.74 TRP Cap. Apprec.
    3. PRESX 14.87 TRP Developed Europe
    4. MAPOX 9.01 Mairs & Power Balanced
    5. MEASX 6.2 Matthews Emerging Asia
    6. MAFSX 6.19 Matthews Focused
    7. PREMX 3.94 TRP Emerg. Mkt Bonds
    8. MAINX 3.54 Matthews mostly Asia bonds
    9. SFGIX 2.82 Seafarer EM
    10. TRAMX 2.81 TRP Africa-Middle East
    11. MACSX 2.63 Matthews Growth & Income
    12. DLFNX 2.46 DoubleLine bonds
    13. MSCFX 2.45 Mairs & Power Small-cap.
    14. NAESX 0.76 (wife's 403b) Vanguard Small-cap Index Fund
    *****************************
    M* Instant X-Ray:
    Cash 4%
    US 20
    Foreign 56
    -Europe Developed 14.63
    -Europe Emerg. 0.46
    -Asia Dev. 11.63
    -Asia Emerg. 23.99
    -Japan 7.76
    -UK 7.56
    -Canada 6.74
    -Ausralasia 3.83
    -Africa/Middle East 2.79
    -Latin America 0.61
    BONDS: 17
    "Other:" 3
    ++++++++++++++
    Thanks for all the support, everyone. As I suppose it is for the rest of you, this thing is always a work in progress. I mentioned that I'll be growing MAPOX, and also my bond funds, particularly DLFNX. An intense, focused, lengthy conversation with a financial pro last year was enlightening. Wholesale changes were made. I want it to be truly worldwide. It is that. But it's still, as I say, a work in progress. Like myself.

  • Ouch Funds 2014
    ...... down funds and whether folks were adding to their's..............whether or not it's wise to add to our laggards on the way down. Doing so runs contrary to the adage about not trying to catch a falling knife. I don't think its a clear cut choice. There are a tremendous number of other variables one must consider.
    The question as to whether to add to down investments is a very difficult one.
    All the precepts of value investing say to buy the unloved, buy the out of favor, be greedy when and where others are fearful......buy at a discount.
    Other precepts say 'Let your winners run'.
    Peter Lynch said don't 'water the weeds and don't cut your roses', or something like that.
    Remember at the end of 2013 and very beginning of 2014 when almost No One wanted emerging markets. They just kept going down and down. They had a terrible 2013 performance compared to the US market, -5% vs. +32.4%. Would have been a perfect time to buy emerging markets I believe in February 2014, not sure when they bottomed....but ever since them they just can't be stopped. I've seen several down stock market days [US and developed int'l] where emerging markets were up in the past several months.
    I own Sequoia, SEQUX. Underperforming the market by 9.5% year to date. Good time to buy more? I think so, but I'm already fully invested in my equity allocation.
    What about small cap growth? A big underperformer this year. Good time to buy?
    What about megacap stocks, as represented by XLG. On a relative basis, megacaps have underperformed for many years. A 2% underperformance relative to the S&P 500 over the past 5 years. An excellent time to buy? They are the most stable companies, at relative bargain valuations vs. the market.
  • Junk Bonds Overtaken By High Grade As 2014's Favored Bet
    Ha ha! Ted knows how to get a response from you, even during vacation!
    I pulled out early from the NHMAX wagon, but still made good money. Still have about 25% of my position.
  • Q&A With Barry James,Co- Manager, James Balanced Golden Rainbow Fund
    Great fund, those buckeyes, out in the middle of nowhere. Lots of alpha, badump.
    http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424052702304539504576532400452721090
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-11/hated-stocks-unlock-market-as-analysts-no-guide-to-s-p-500-gains.html
    I have been in this one forever, almost, but never enough. Partly cuz I could not get into BERIX and MAPOX, also superb. But over time I ain't complainin'.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    I suppose the thought becomes:
    1. You have about 30% in one fund at Matthews.
    2. If you go to a different Matthews fund, you're still Asia-focused. Diversifying your holdings in Asia-related, but not diversifying more broadly. Pretty much what Maurice said.
    3. Still not getting the invest directly with fund companies thing (if they sold shares at 5% less than NAV if you invested directly like how some companies give you a 5% discount if you DRIP - yeah, absolutely, but I'm not seeing the benefits as is.)
  • Buys or sells before labor Day weekend ?
    Hi Derf,
    I have not done much this past week (buy or sell) and still have about 75% of my sell proceeds from recently sold securities (JCRAX, KSDVX, MFLDX, ITAAX) awaiting to be deployed. Currently, I am about 20% Cash, 25% Income, 45% Equity, & 10% Other as of my most recent Morningstar Xray. The total current number of investment positions is fifty.
    Perhaps a good buying opportunity will present itself in September or October. And, even if it doesn't ... I am happy with where I am currently position. However, I do have my buy list ready should technicals align.
    Old_Skeet
  • Wasatch Micro Cap Value Fund
    I hold this fund in taxable account so would not sell all at one time. I need to manage the tax consequences.
    It has done very well for me but its been laggard if one compares 1, 3 or 5 years returns with similar type of funds.
    and it has very high ER
  • Buys or sells before labor Day weekend ?
    I sold about 50% of SWFFX & cut MFLDX loose. I'll wait for market pull back, if there is one, before reinvesting.
    Happy Labor Day weekend everyone !, Derf
  • 11 Ways To Play Emerging Markets
    Yeah ...
    Somehow I find it depressing that you can sit atop the world's most extensive collection of mutual fund data and probably the world's largest fund analyst corps and all you manage to ferret out are two huge funds standing in plain view.
    American Funds New World (NEWFX): $25 billion and a decent record as an EM fund over all trailing periods, especially given its muted volatility. One minor downside is that it doesn't particular invest in EM stocks conventionally conceived. By M*'s tracking, a third of its money is in EM stocks and two-thirds elsewhere. Where elsewhere? Toyota, Nestle, Novo Nordisk, Cummins Diesel, Samsung, Prudential ... The argument, of course, is that these firms sell a lot to the emerging markets but, Ms. Benz agrees, it might not be the best way to get EM exposure which leaves us with ...
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Market Stock (PRMSX): $7.8 billion and an utterly undistinguished record under its current manager. Since his arrival in September 2008 the fund has modestly trailed its peer group and the corresponding Vanguard index fund but does not seem to have compensated for that with noticeably lower volatility.
    Their only regional fund is Matthews China (MCHFX), at a sprightly $1.2 billion. On whole, I suppose if I want to pursue regional exposure in Asia I'd argue from a more broadly focused Matthews fund.
    Oh well, back to working on this afternoon's class.
    David
  • WCM Alternatives: Event-Driven Fund (Westchester Capital Management) (WCERX)
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1572617/000089418913006686/wstchstr-capfnds_497c.htm
    Received literature last night concerning the Merger Fund. In that literature, was several mentions of the above fund being available.
    Personally, I have the Quaker Event Arbitrage Fund (formerly the Penn Avenue Event Driven Fund and its longstanding manager, Thomas Kirchner). Since I was an investor in the former, I was grandfathered from paying the load after the merger of the two funds. (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/870355/000145078910000169/quaker497forn14.htm)
    Another MF company getting in the event driven fund business.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    MAPOX is a decent fund. I don't know its history during bear markets but it's been around for a while. I had forgotten that MAPTX was closed.
    Matthews is a great company. I have MAINX as well as MAPIX. MAINX is around 5% of my portfolio. But, they are Asia centric. That's their business and they are good at it. Having exposure to Europe is good too.
    You may have more moves to make but take it slow and use opportunities to make changes. My favorite visual for my $cost avg method was the water hose and bucket. The water was my money going into investments. The hose directed that money. The buckets were my investments. As some investments fell out of favor and I still believed in them I would point that hose and fill that bucket more than the others. It's a value type $cost avg method. On the other hand if a fund had a big year I would sweep profits in one or more of the others. My big year was the year TWCUX had a 80% +/- return. I swept the profits. The next couple of years were not that good. Typical after a big return.
    I think you will be happy with MEASX.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    Thanks. man. I'm approx. 50/50 domestic/international. That includes EM and Frontier. MAPIX is the biggest chunk. Next biggest chunk is PRWCX at 18.77% of portf followed by PRESX at 14.85% and MAPOX at 9.02% of total. The others are much smaller. I like my selections, but the proportions here just happened, always playing catch-up, if you know what I mean.
    MAPTX sounds good, too. But I'm already sitting on 13 different funds. Some of them, ostensibly the "hot" ones--- serve as feeders for more tame, core funds in the portfolio: PRWCX and MAPOX.
    I will indeed move some money, but keep a big chunk in MAPIX. Thanks again. I've already decided that I want to keep this all in Matthews.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    @Crash,
    29.78% is a lot in my opinion. My shares of MAPIX= 9.02% of my portfolio. It is a good fund though and it is closed to new investors so I would not sell it all. If you decide to sell, just pare it back a bit. The bigger question is where to go with that money? MEASX I'm sure is a good fund but it has a high ER. Also, and this again is my opinion, it does not include Hong Kong, Singapore as well as Japan. Japan may not be the fastest growing economy but the other two are pretty important in this region. I am getting the impression you want to be in emerging markets or in Asia with your comments. EM funds in this region have been slow as of late. It depends on what your impression of the future is and how countries like India and other countries will grow with the economy. It will be a rough ride and if you don't like volatility then you have more to think on. I would keep my asset allocations on these funds a bit lower. Depending on your asset size, 5-10% might be a good start.
    A simple way would be to keep 10% in MAPIX and maybe another 5% in MAPTX. You still have TRAMX from your comment above and that is a good one for a small amount too. As for the rest if any, there are many funds that might fit for you but wit the markets at this stage, you might be chasing performance.
    I am just one person and one opinion. I hope others will give some recommendations or suggestions. What works for me may not be for you. But I do believe your almost 30% in MAPIX is too much.
    Hope this helps.