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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Junk (corporate) bonds up 15 consecutive trading days
    Yes - most everything is up. The U.S. economy is smoking. Wage pressures are building too from the Dock Workers' slowdown on west coast and GM bumping some laborers into a much higher pay zone due to ramped up production. Than, Ford's adding workers. Brent crude's around $58 today after bottoming around $45 few weeks ago.
    Maybe this will put an end to the global deflation fear mongering.
    I bailed from junk way too early. But don't dislike them and you've done well. When I think of bonds, it's usually in the context of interest rate sensitive varieties (like govt. backed). As you know, junk reacts more to the health of the economy than it does to interest rates. The lower the tier of junk, the more this is true.
    Interested in Lockhert's speech today. Got a bit overweight in the oil sensitive equities as it was bottoming. (poor record-keeping on my part). So, using this week to lighten up a bit. Maybe another good day to off-load a little more. Still like the NR sensitive stuff going foreward. Just a matter of keeping the exposure reasonable for age, situation, etc.
    Thanks for all your contributions Junkster - which I always enjoy reading.
    ---
    Edit: Fed Gov. Lockhart threw cold water on the markets in today's speech in Naples, Fla as I rather expected. Sees possible rate increase in June. Ha. Not to be taken too seriously, but did turn around the markets in the PM. Gold in particular doesn't appear to like the prospect of higher rates. Having rough day.
  • Junk (corporate) bonds up 15 consecutive trading days
    As measured by the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index - a daily total return index. And today is looking like 16. It's been a slow plodding rise, but a rise nonetheless. In fact, YTD, the average open end junk bond fund has gained almost as much as for the entire year of 2014. Some of the funds less exposed to oil and gas issues have done much better. Junk's rise this week has come at the expense of the safer and mundane areas of Bondland ala Treasuires and munis.
    Edit: Without checking, I believe February is shaping up to be the first month of out performance of junk corporates over junk munis since December 2013. And on a total return basis, junk munis are looking at their first monthly decline since 2013. But of course, we are still early in the month.
  • Crossing Wall Street >>> Weekly Market Review >>> Earnings? Stalling Out!
    "The surging U.S. dollar and collapsing oil prices have dramatically changed the outlook for corporate earnings growth. Guidance from companies hasn’t been this poor since the depths of the Financial Crisis. At the end of the Q3, Wall Street had been expecting Q4 earnings of $32.24 (that’s the index-adjusted number). Now it looks like it will be about $27.64. That’s a big cut. At the end of Q3, the Street was expecting full-year earnings for 2015 of $136.07. That’s now down to $119.76. That’s a 12% cut in four months. Stock prices haven’t responded nearly as much."
    Read all about this, and more, through the below link ...
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/02/cws-market-review-february-6-2015.html
  • Issue in downloading the Great owls
    Tried to download the equity owls listing, but all 3 download icons in the page lead to fixed income xl sheet download only (115 entries of bonds) with no way to download asset allocation/equity listings.
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    Speaking of Sears, CNBC ran a story today. Different financial guru, similar story. Reading the comments, nobody believes the story.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102390278?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102390278
    If people believed the story, nearly half the float wouldn't be short.
    People who've shopped there recently don't believe it in the comments. I went into a Sears store a few months back and the lack of care apparent in the store's upkeep was clearly visible.
    The belief that the "Shop Your Way" campaign will save them is delusional and the idea that Sears will somehow be a big player online in an era of Amazon and other such companies is absurd. The theme that Sears is trying is simply an attempt to buy more time.
    I learned something new in the comments section: "2 of the most incompetent CEOs that RSH has EVER had came from Sears/Kmart and were devotees/disciples of Eddie Lampert - Julian Day (who was head of Kmart when it came out of bankruptcy) and Jim Gooch. Both, just like Lampert, were $ people who knew and knows NOTHING about retail." If true, that's interesting.
    The other issue that concerns me is that I have little confidence that this won't turn into a "Heads I Win, Tails I Win" for Lampert as he financially engineers himself a sweet payday while the company crumbles. I have absolutely no belief that he's looking out for anyone but himself and his hedge fund, as evidenced by the loan he gave the company backed by choice real estate. If I remember correctly, Berkowitz tried to participate in that via JOE (sorry Bruce, JOE is not your Berkshire, never was), but JOE was having none of it.
    Lampert was screwed by 2008. If the real estate was the thing, he should have started it in motion the second he got there. Now the end result isn't nearly as certain (and as for the real estate story, while Sears has some "A" real estate, how much of it is "D" and "F") and the company has deteriorated significantly.
    And what's with Berkowitz's mixture of buys and sells? If it's so freaking wonderful, why sell a share?
    Dec 16, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    5,000 Indirect Purchase at $31.18 per share. 155,900
    Dec 12, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    14,600 Indirect Sale at $31.99 per share. 467,054

    Dec 11, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    7,000 Indirect Purchase at $32.04 per share. 224,280
    Dec 10, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    8,000 Indirect Purchase at $32.31 per share. 258,480
    Dec 2, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    12,700 Indirect Sale at $34.97 per share. 444,119
    Dec 1, 2014 BERKOWITZ BRUCE R
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more)
    26,700 Indirect Sale at $35.65 per share. 951,855

  • Artisan Hunts For EM And Alts Talent
    Seafarer turns three this month (Feb. 15) and will receive a star rating (and, I suppose, an Owl Assessment) in March. I'm hopeful of having Andrew join us for a conference call in April so that we can catch up with developments and outlook.
    He's really good, in many senses of the word.
    David
  • PRAIX Pimco Real Return
    Yes. These were the standard number sets:
    Standard baud rates included 110, 300, 600, 1200, 2400, 4800, 9600, 14400, 19200, 38400, 57600, 115200, 128000 and 256000 bits per second
  • PRAIX Pimco Real Return
    I said 9.6mb but Catch's mention of baud refreshed my memory. So was it 9600 baud? It took about 10-15 minutes to download a webpage too. Of course I had a old Apple LC2. 16mhz processor.
  • PRAIX Pimco Real Return
    @ron
    You have a decent mix of bond holdings, IMO.
    A prior post from you leads to the conclusion that you are looking at TIPs funds to fill another bond sector.
    You likely have already done this, but I would dig through the list of TIPs funds to find whether there are other choices that may be of interest, too.
    The temptation of use LTPZ is still there, perhaps. As we discussed last week, this holding can be a real winner, too; but may also be as variable as many equity funds. The last few days have found a lot of swings in pricing, mostly to the downside.
    Having been discussed prior too, is the aspect that managed funds have a variety of holdings that may not all be TIPs; including other u.s. issues, varying durations and IG corp. bonds.
    With the exception of finding a few TIPs funds with 3, 5 or 10 year records over and above most other TIPs funds; I would likely buy a TIPs etf (lowest E.R.) and watch it at least once a week for price changes.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • PRAIX Pimco Real Return
    Hi @JohnChisum
    :) Yes, to the modem. A cable system modem, which is connected to an Apple "Airport Extreme", dual band wifi for the house.
    Still got to connect to the outside world via the modem. I still have an old 56k phone line modem. Recall back in that day of changing some of the modem code to obtain the amazing speed of 56.4K speed. Our current cable download speed is about 35meg.
    Catch
  • Guinness Atkinson conference call, Monday, February 9, noon Eastern
    i would like to hear more about GAINX. the fund has been around for over 2 years and doesn't seem as a resounding commercial success @ just $5.5mm. Thus here my questions, if i may:
    • Since the fund expenses are being heavily subsidized, for how long are they willing to continue without assets?
    • GAINX has “dividend builder” in its name. What if a current holding has an attractive yield – due to its share depreciation (not just in sympathy with the market movement, but due to the company-specific issues) – would they retain the holding?
    • Related to the above: Would they consider protecting ‘total return’ or do ‘dividends’ take priority?
    Thanks. fa
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Rise Along With Oil Prices And Pfizer Deal: Dow & S&P 500 + YTD
    @MFO Members: Have held PFE since 2006 that I purchaed @24 and some change. I'm up about 45% + dividend, and will continue to hold, I've had worse investments.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Pfizer Bio:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    Actually the other "Bruce" fund (BRUFX) has outperformed FAIRX significantly over the last 15 years with much less volatility (16.56% annualized). I invested some Roth IRA money in BRUFX about 10 years ago and sort of forgot about it. Surprised at how it has grown since then.
  • Artisan Hunts For EM And Alts Talent
    I was actually wondering if they might not be looking for talent to run their current e.m. fund? A fair asset base ($250M) but performance that was never better than index-like (2006-early 2010) and noticeably worse of late. It's also the only fund that didn't have a retail version at launch.
    Curious, as well,
    David
  • Top 3 Things The Best Mutual Funds Have In Common
    FYI: The best mutual funds are the ones with the best performance, right? The short answer is yes. But it is wise to invest a few minutes of time in the slightly longer answer.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2015/02/best-mutual-funds-performance/print
  • PRAIX Pimco Real Return
    Hi @ron
    PRAIX is an "enhanced" TIPs fund at this time; with all the "adjustment" tools available with many Pimco funds. I know you are aware of this, too; if this is what you want to add to your mix.
    We maintain our holding of PIMIX; although the fund is having a rough start to this year, but is hopefully adjusting as this current crazy bond market moves along. But, PIMIX has been fairly steady/smooth relative to some other bond funds. I have placed this fund with the one you mentioned and two others for reference.
    Hopefully, this chart will be viewable to you in the 3 year mode. NOPE.....didn't link the 3 year this time...........drag the left end of the 200 day slider to about 750 days for a 3 year view.
    Are you willing to list your other bond funds or bond holdings for an overview.
    Away to upgrade our modem here and hope that this goes well.
    Chart of PIMIX v PRAIX v TIP v TLT past 3 years.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • International mutual funds
    Interesting to do a search for international (blend, growth, value) funds that are in the top 15% for 1,3,and 5-yr periods. Only four funds show up, and only two of those have had the current manager at the helm for five years: Ivy International Core Equity and Great-West MFS International Value. Ivy's John Maxwell has done outstanding work, under the radar, since he came to the fund in 2006. We use ICEIX, but IVVYX may also be available. Unfortunately, Maxwell's fund is not on the Fidelity no-load platform. You may have to work hard to find the fund and not pay a commission. But worth a look if you do.
    Other managers worth checking are Bernie Horn from QFVIX, Mark Yockey from ARTMX, and Walter Bean/Daniel Peris from IVFIX. The latter is particularly interesting if you like to emphasize dividend yields, which is an attractive 4.97% and has a very low 11% turnover.