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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Up eight trading days in a row to all time highs
    @Junkster & @davfor- best of both worlds- I kept MAPIX despite the lack of dividend last qtr, and also have SFGIX. Both of those, as you mentioned, thanks to many years of good info from folks here at MFO & FundAlarm. About 5% of our portfolio for those two.
  • Up eight trading days in a row to all time highs
    The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index (junk corporates) Then again, were I younger, poorer, less risk averse/ more aggressive SFGIX would be my cup of tea. Congrats to all the MFOers in that one in 2015.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Average Returns, Rarer Than You Think
    FYI: One of the most fascinating things about markets is the sheer volume of data they generate. Every day, millions of data points get created. The vast majority of this amounts to little more than noise. This endless stream of information leads thousands of us everyday on a hunt for meaningful signal amid the cacophony.
    Most of the time, we are unsuccessful. We can be tricked into seeing significance where none exists. Our pattern recognition engines are fooled by what turns out to be mere randomness (there’s a good idea for a book in that). There is a meaningful needle buried somewhere in the haystack of numbers, but we underestimate both how hard it is to identify, and just how huge that stack is.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-09/average-market-returns-are-rarer-than-you-think
  • Hey, so what's the deal with HSI, Hang Seng? +3% yesterday & +4% @ 10pm EST
    • Overnight, the Chinese A/H share class trade continued to play out as the “Southbound” train was moving at full speed. With the China A-share premium over H-shares touching on 3 year highs in recent weeks, yesterday’s correction represented a 2.6x standard deviation move as the Heng Seng experiences record volumes. Note the FXI (tracking the H-Share FTSE China 50 index) jumped 6.2% yesterday - on quadruple its average volume - even as ASHR (tracking the CSI 300 China A-Shares Index) was only up 0.6%.
  • Long-Term Performance Stats of Little Benefit
    Most readers here are of course MF investors, although many hold ETFs and stocks. I reviewed Barron's quarterly fund issue today and found that the tables of fund performance, good and bad, over periods of years have become useless because they are populated by ETFs on steroids, at least the last 10 years studied. For 15 and 20 year periods, MF performance can be gleaned, but soon enough ETFs will crowd out the MFs. I wonder if Barron's has given any thought to how skewed the presentation of data has become. The tail seems to be wagging the dog. I for one pay no attention to what a 3X bear sector ETF has done for the past five years, yet my subscription dollars pay for tabulation of data of little application.
  • Emerging Market fund flows
    Hi @Paul
    While these longer (rear view) time frames may be of interest for review; IMHO, one needs to attempt to place what other events were taking place at the time of whatever particular money flow was being reviewed.
    Since the markets melt in 2007/2008 there have been many "special situations" that would have provided any number of reasons for why the "big/hot money" was traveling to a particular area.
    We try to view the current functions of the market place to establish investment postions.
    To the circumstance of only one effect of market movements/cash flows may be reflected from the actions of central banks attempting to support "growth" and a "2% inflation rate". The result, of course; became and still exists today with a hugh boatload of very low yields for government and other investment grade bonds. Cheap money for financing.........whatever.
    So, as to the flows of money into particular areas; from a review of past actions, needs to accompanied by and with "what was taking place" at the time.
    We held IG and HY bonds much past the time frame of what the "economists and forecasters" kept telling us would be "healthy" for a decent return on the investment. I don't recall how many annual forecasts I have read during the past 5 years regarding that "the U.S. 10 yield was going to x percent upward in the next 6 - 12 months."
    How many times has the EuroZone gone through the shakes of the market place in the past 5 years? My answer would simply be, a bunch !!!
    However, I/we do use pricing of various market areas for a reflection of "money flows" at the time. If one were reviewing U.S. equity and bonds for a "funds flow" during the second half of 2011, the consideration that the U.S. had a debt quality downgrade in July would have to be accounted as a partial reason for the changes during this period. Pricing for equity went to hell for a few months and most IG bond pricing was very happy during this period.
    Numerous other examples could be provided strictly related to central bank actions, regardless of any other events.
    Obviously, this particular area of thought (funds/money flows) for a market guage is very complex; past the simple notes I have written.
    I don't offer any particular judgment about investing in emerging markets at this time. We are "full up" with other areas that are doing well at this time.
    As Mr. Snowball has noted in the blue box text along the left, top edge of this page; this is just my 2 cents worth. My only "formal" education regarding investments is from 35 years attending the "school of hard knocks". :)
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Emerging Market fund flows
    @Paul It wasn't clear from your request: did you just want net weekly and monthly flow figures, or did you want these totals broken down into (a) outflows (smart money) and (b) inflows (dumb money)? There are few EM countries that have a tailwind behind them; most have increasing headwinds, and the winds on every continent are headed south, so to speak. Currency wars, inflation, domestic consumer market undeveloped, sharp declines in foreign demand for exports. So why now, what's the rush? Just my take.
    Hi heezsafe, I was looking for longer term flow numbers. For instance, let's say Domestic Equity has had more total inflows by tens of billions over the past 5 years and Emerging Markets (overall, no specific region) had outflows (or low inflows), it could be an interesting space to add exposure.
  • Hey, so what's the deal with HSI, Hang Seng? +3% yesterday & +4% @ 10pm EST
    Apologies if some of this is imbedded in the linked stories above.
    additional short news report
    Partial from this article:
    >>>"New action from regulators also appears to be spurring the resurgence in mainland buying.
    The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) removed barriers for mainland money managers to buy H-shares last week. "The idea is not to hurt the A-share market, but to lower the valuation discrepancy between markets and spread risk," said Chris Weston, IG's chief market strategist.
    Moreover, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission recently allowed mainland insurance firms to invest in Hong Kong's Growth Enterprise Market for the first time.
    HSBC expects additional supporting policies to be announced in the near future, including the introduction of margin trading for mainland retail investors and a removal of the 500,000 renminbi minimum stock account balance, which should increase participation in southbound Stock Connect trading.
    However, not everyone believes mainland players are at the center of the action.
    "Despite the recent extension of Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect to include mainland fund managers, our discussions with brokers [on Wednesday] suggest it was foreign fund manager buying, rather than mainland Chinese," noted Mark Matthews, head of research Asia at Bank Julius Baer." <<<
    Thank you to all who helped reason the original question.
    Catch
  • Bill Gross' Contrarian Bet Against The Dollar Helps Him Regain Footing
    A friend of mine compared Bill Gross to the game of whack-a-mole. He just keeps popping up.
    Wonder how many people know that Janus has eight (!) share classes of this fund. The marketing folks at Janus have found a way to sell it to just about everyone. How would you like to pay 1.83% annually for a bond fund? Or maybe you would prefer 1.33%, or how about 1.08%, or even 0.83%, for the same fund? And this doesn't include any up-front or trail commissions. Commission and annual expenses for A-class shares total about 5.85% in the first year. Let's hear it for Janus!
  • Portfolio Rebalancing…For Cowards
    Non-dollar bonds are being pressured by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Unlike international companies that generate revenue from outside their borders, foreign bonds are dependent to a great extent on the value of their currency. Some folks believe the dollar may stagnate for a while, some believe the euro will strengthen, both of which would help foreign bonds. Timing this is nearly impossible. You might consider Matthews Asia Strategic Income MAINX (keep in mind this is Asia-specific fixed-income), Templeton Global Bond TGBAX (manager Hasenstab is the best at currency choices), or a multi-sector option like BlackRock Strategic Income BSIIX (has about 25% in non-U.S. bonds). These have decent track records and strong management teams. But, yes, you should capture some of the gain in Apple. The point is not to sell Apple, but rather to not lose all the gains should the stock market correct or worse. Remember that a bad day for bonds is nothing compared to a bad day for stocks.
  • Bill Gross' Contrarian Bet Against The Dollar Helps Him Regain Footing
    FYI: After a shaky first five months, Bill Gross is regaining his footing at Janus Capital Group Inc., helped by a contrarian bet that the dollar's rally won't continue.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150408/FREE/150409932?template=printart
  • Hey, so what's the deal with HSI, Hang Seng? +3% yesterday & +4% @ 10pm EST
    @OregonDan Yup, and the rascals at ZeroHedge are all over it, with a little help from Bloomberg and BNP Paribas:
    It's a party on the Shanghai, and everyone is invited to the "self-feeding, leverage-fueled domestic frenzy"!
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-27/dumb-money-30-new-equity-investors-china-have-elementary-education-or-less-bloomberg
    Meanwhile, in Hong Kong tonight, it's still on like Donkey Kong--- to the moon, Alice!
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-08/right-now-hong-kong
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/stock-mania-spreads-to-hong-kong-as-chinese-buyers-hunt-bargains
    I never know what to do with these manias, but they sure are fascinating to watch.
  • Hey, so what's the deal with HSI, Hang Seng? +3% yesterday & +4% @ 10pm EST
    @JohnChisum
    Hmmmm.....okay. I thought that linkage was complete last fall. Perhaps I didn't understand the whole package and time frames. Although Shanghai has been doing well; nothing like what is taking place in Hong Kong right now.
    Here are a few related news stories.
    Thanks, John.
  • No Fed Rate Hike Needed Until Second Half Of 2016
    Fed's Concerns
    A nostalgic time before the DotCom crash and of course 9/11 and "the great recession".They called him the maestro for a while,didn't they? Are current conditions a "favorable economic environment".
    Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
    The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report
    Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
    February 26, 1997
    "Why should the central bank be concerned about the possibility that financial markets may be overestimating returns or mispricing risk? It is not that we have a firm view that equity prices are necessarily excessive right now or risk spreads patently too low. Our goal is to contribute as best we can to the highest possible growth of income and wealth over time, and we would be pleased if the favorable economic environment projected in markets actually comes to pass. Rather, the FOMC has to be sensitive to indications of even slowly building imbalances, whatever their source, that, by fostering the emergence of inflation pressures, would ultimately threaten healthy economic expansion.
    "I will conclude on the same upbeat note about the U.S. economy with which I began. Although a central banker's occupational responsibility is to stay on the lookout for trouble, even I must admit that our economic prospects in general are quite favorable. The flexibility of our market system and the vibrancy of our private sector remain examples for the whole world to emulate. The Federal Reserve will endeavor to do its part by continuing to foster a monetary framework under which our citizens can prosper to the fullest possible extent."
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/1997/february/testimony.htm
    Global Economy's Manufacturing Sector Struggles
    by Robert Brusca April 6, 2015
    "Against this background, it is hard to understand the Fed's compulsion to hike rates. There are no capacity constraints in the U.S. or even in the global economy. Manufacturing everywhere is extremely weak. There has been a lot of monetary stimulus and the countries that did that early have fared better (the U.S. and the U.K.). But now that stimulus is wearing off and the stimulus launched in Europe is playing a part by driving the euro lower and the dollar higher.
    There is also a legacy of excessive debt and a plan by central banks to control leverage and risk. This program restricts bank lending by using capital/asset ratios that bind and a stress test to enforce disciple. This approach doesn't just control; it also restricts lending and growth."
    http://www.haver.com/comment/comment.html?c=150406A.html
  • Emerging Market fund flows
    Federales couldn't get them any day!
    McEwen robbery highlights risks for miners in Mexico
    McEwen Mining (NYSE:MUX) fell 5.6% in today's trade after yesterday's news that 900 kg of gold-bearing concentrate containing 7K oz. of gold - ~$8.4M in potential revenue - was stolen from its refinery in Mexico's Sinaloa state.Armed robberies of significant quantities of gold are not common, but operators in northern Mexico have been targeted in the past as the region is associated with cartels and gangs.The robbery raises concerns about other companies with exposure in northern Mexico, which include AGI, AUQ, CDE, PPP and TGD; among those with operations nearby are GG, PAAS, GPL, OTCPK:FNLPF and OTCQX:SMNPF.
    .McEwen Mining Reports Armed Robbery at El Gallo 1 Mine
    Tue April 7, 2015 5:04 PM
    http://seekingalpha.com/pr/13063546-mcewen-mining-reports-armed-robbery-at-el-gallo-1-mine
    From McEwen's CAUTION CONCERNING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
    Risks and uncertainties that could cause results or future events to differ materially from current expectations expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and information include, but are not limited to, existing insurance coverage and future availability of insurance, factors associated with fluctuations in the market price of precious metals, mining industry risks, political, economic, social and security risks associated with foreign operations,
  • Q&A With John Bogle: Investors Are Now Driving Ethics: Part 2
    FYI: It’s been about 40 years since John Bogle created investor-owned Vanguard Group and the first index fund. In the intervening decades, Vanguard has become the biggest mutual fund company in the world, and the humble index fund has become the centerpiece of the ETF revolution.
    The implications are profound, as the 85-year-old legend made clear when ETF.com caught up with him in a recent telephone interview. In the first installment last week, Bogle extolled the fact that politicians and regulators are giving the pursuit of a unified fiduciary standard serious attention
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/bogle-investors-are-now-driving-ethics?nopaging=1
  • T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund to close to new investors (For Ted)
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002624/000100262415000005/hsfstatutorysticker481-20154.htm
    497 1 hsfstatutorysticker481-20154.htm
    T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated May 1, 2014
    Effective June 1, 2015, the T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund will be closed to new investors. Accordingly, the prospectus is updated as follows.
    Under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” in section 1, the following is added:
    Subject to certain exceptions, the fund will be closed to new investors and new accounts after the close of the New York Stock Exchange on June 1, 2015. Investors who already hold shares of the fund after June 1, 2015, may continue to purchase additional shares.
    Under “More Information About the Fund and Its Investment Risks” in section 3, the following is added:
    Subject to certain exceptions, the fund will close to new investors and will no longer accept new accounts after the close of the New York Stock Exchange (normally 4 p.m. ET) on Monday, June 1, 2015.
    Additional share purchases are permitted for investors holding shares of the fund directly with T. Rowe Price at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on June 1, 2015, as well as for participants in an employer-sponsored retirement plan where the fund serves as an investment option. New T. Rowe Price IRAs in the fund may be opened only through a direct rollover from an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Investors already holding shares through intermediaries generally will be able to purchase additional shares. If permitted by T. Rowe Price, fund shares may also be purchased by new investors in intermediary wrap, asset allocation, and other advisory programs when the fund is an existing investment in the intermediary’s program. If you are purchasing shares through an intermediary, check with the intermediary to confirm your eligibility to purchase shares of the fund.
    The fund’s closure to new investors does not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. However, any shareholders who redeem all fund shares in their account would not be permitted to purchase additional shares until the fund is reopened to new investors. Transferring ownership to another party or changing an account registration may also restrict the ability to purchase additional shares.
    The fund reserves the right, when in the judgment of T. Rowe Price it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain types of investors to open new accounts in the fund, to impose further restrictions, or to close the fund to any additional investments, all without prior notice.
    The date of this supplement is April 8, 2015.
    F114-041 4/8/2015
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------