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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Jeremy Grantham/GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts
    Sorry for stupid question. Is GMO saying TOTAL small cap return over 7 years will be -5 percent, OR year over year?
  • Chuck Jaffe: Think Twice Before You Invest In A Bear-Market Fund
    I think chances are now high for a market correction of 60%. I think next buying opportunity is 2017.
    Lest anyone asks I have right to pull out stuff from my behind just like anyone else. I can point to S&P 500 returns for last 5 years and say it always pays to be fully invested in the market.
    Now let me go find out what a "bear market fund is". If its HSGFX, maybe I should buy more. If it is BEARX, I need to think.
  • "Duration" as an added component to Mutual Fund MaxDD (Draw Down)
    Actually Max DD to me is very important. Especially for 10-15 year old funds who have gone through few market cycles. It tells a lot about the manager.
    Some like Schwab report Upside Capture and Downside Capture. Not quite sure how they capture that data and how reliable it is. Max DD on the other hand is crystal clear.
  • Target Date Funds Try Timing The Market
    If the investors owning the fund are aware of this change then there may not be a problem. However this could impact those close to retirement if a bear shows up.
    This kind of tactic is better for asset allocation funds IMO. I do own one that can adjust its holdings within single digits percentage wise. ( AOMIX ). That was clearly spelled out in the prospectus. In my experience the allocation changes have been 5% or less.
  • The Closing Bell: U. S. Stocks: Dow Closes Above 17,000
    FYI: U .S. stocks rebounded on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 17,000 as a flurry of deal news and better-than-expected earnings from Citigroup Inc increased demand for equities.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-climb-citigroup-results-in-view-2014-07-14/print?guid=714B1C48-0B25-11E4-911A-00212803FAD6
    WSJ Slant: http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-up-broadly-1405340638#printMode
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
  • Chuck Jaffe: Think Twice Before You Invest In A Bear-Market Fund
    FYI: dDoomsayers, the guys who believe that every breakthrough is one step closer to a turning point.
    As a result, a raft of prognosticators has come out in the last few weeks saying to expect everything from a mild downturn (buying opportunity) to a reason to protect profits and move to cash to a looming decade of financial pain and misery.
    It’s enough to get investors thinking about buying a bear-market fund
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-twice-before-you-invest-in-a-bear-market-fund-2014-07-14/print?guid=AD8EC752-0B54-11E4-B65E-00212803FAD6
    The Average Bear Market fund Returns YTD-One Year-Three Years Five Years:
    YTD: -(9.77) %
    1. -(26.02)%
    3. -(23.72)%
    5. -(28.30)%
    M* Bear Market Fund Returns;
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/bear-market/$FOCA$BM.aspx
  • Fund Managers Who Invest Elsewhere: Eating Your Own Cooking

    Of all the stupid regulations...managers should be made to disclose EXACT amount of their holdings and NOT ranges.
    Agree completely.
    The Longleaf Partners Funds has a policy that does not allow employees to have outside investments. The portfolio managers and analysts must have 100% of their investments in the Longleaf funds. I'd like to see that in other fund companies as more common.
    Another issue: Just because a manager has $500K or even $1M in his fund, it doesn't mean he is that committed. Many of them have investable assets in the stratosphere, and even $1M may not demonstrate a great deal of commitment.
    I own some Berkshire Hathaway B shares, and am very happy that Warren Buffett has close to 95-100% of his net worth in the stock. A full commitment.
    I'd like to see some mutual fund managers who have their entire life savings in their funds.
    In this respect, Bruce Berkowitz sets a fine example.
  • "Duration" as an added component to Mutual Fund MaxDD (Draw Down)
    So, looks like OAKMX recovers (surpasses previous peak) maybe 3 years sooner than laggard WQCEX, as seen below in M* chart:
    image
  • "Duration" as an added component to Mutual Fund MaxDD (Draw Down)
    Here's quick example...
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=OAKMX,+WQCEX&submit=Submit
    MAXDD same @ -51.3%, but WQCEX has causes nearly twice the ulcers as OAKMX (UI = 22.1 vs 12.1).
  • "Duration" as an added component to Mutual Fund MaxDD (Draw Down)
    MaxDD or Maximum Draw Draw is to me only half of the story.
    Markets move up and down. Typically the more aggressive the fund the more likely it is to have a higher MaxDD. I get that. What I find "knocks me out of a fund" in a down market is the funds inability to bounce back.
    When managers employ strategies that reduce the timeframe after a MaxDD (employing cash, being defensive then aggressive, etc.) they can shorten the duration a fund stays in the MaxDD phase. To me, the phase ends when the fund returns to a previous level of growth. As an investor, a fund that employees strategies to shorten the duration it stays in MaxDD stands a chance of having the investor "hold on for the ride" and not bail on the fund at the very worse time.
    I have owned some "dead cat funds" over the years (Vanguard US Growth comes to mind) and I have had to bite the bullet and sell after years and years of underperformance after it initially bottomed. I appreciate managers who understand that investors need a reason to hang on when funds are phasing back to growth, but as I age I don't bounce back as quick from a fall. In my opinion, the shorter the phase the better...my funds need to be a little sprier and I.
    Anyway, I would love your candidate for a fund that despite it's MaxDD it maneuvers the rough waters quickly even as markets cycles and market valuations changed. What's your shortest Duration MaxDD fund?
    Here's two aggressive growth funds POAGX (MC/ LC) and BUFOX (Micro Cap) that have very different "return to growth phase durations:
    image
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Steve Leuthold
    Just watched this. Interesting. Talk about contrarian investing! He puts forth an intelligent case for investing in China, nuclear power, clean water in China, gold, commodities. He points out that China has an economy growing 3x faster than ours, with stocks that are way cheaper. He names his favorite China ETFs, as well as specific investments for all his themes. To invest with him the minimum is 500K, but you can easily replicate his strategy as he gave the specific investments.
  • Jeremy Grantham/GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts
    7-Year Asset Class Forecasts for various classes of stocks and bonds. As of June 30, 2014
    image
  • Heath Care REITS...looking for investment suggestions
    According to M* Fair Value Chart HC Facilities REITS are under valued by about 15%. One of the few sectors that appears under valued right now. Most of the stocks pay a nice dividend (5%-ish) and along with its 15% under valued price seems like a nice time to consider taking a position. I own VNQ and so I get some exposure to these REITS, but I was looking for something a little more focused.
    Anyone an owner of this sector through funds or individual stocks?
    M* Fair Value Chart:
    image
  • Five Popular-But Dangerous- Investments For Individuals: Part 1
    FYI: Cope & Paste 7/11/14: Kristian Grind: WSJ:
    Choices Including Nontraded Real-Estate Investment Trusts and 'Liquid Alternative' Funds Have Numerous Risks
    Regards,
    Ted
    Mutual funds that try to emulate hedge funds. Exchange-traded funds that use borrowed money to jack up their bets. Real-estate investment trusts that are hard to unload. Structured notes that look like conventional debt but can be far more risky, and "go anywhere" bond funds that are prone to trade safety for yield.
    All these investments have at least one thing in common: They have seen their popularity soar recently as investors seek protection from perceived market dangers—or as fund companies market them heavily. They also are hard to understand, lack transparency, are expensive and don't have proven performance records.
    In interviews, financial advisers, analysts and industry experts frequently said these investment types should be treated with extra caution by investors.
    "Anything that is complicated is not something that the typical investor should buy," says Samuel Lee, an analyst at Chicago-based investment-research firm Morningstar MORN +0.44% who specializes in ETFs. "There are more opportunities for sophisticated players to take advantage of you."
    To be sure, these investments can perform well and could have a place in a portfolio—albeit a small one—as long as they are used correctly. There are plenty of other risky investments marketed to individuals that aren't named here—foreign-exchange trading or options trading, for example.
    Investors should ask several questions before they plunk down their money, says Robert Hockett, president and wealth manager at Atlanta-based Cambridge Wealth Counsel, which oversees $260 million in assets: Is it clear what the investment does? Does it come with high fees? Can you sell it easily? And does it have a proven record?
    Here is what you need to know about the five investments—and some safer alternatives.
    Liquid-Alternative Funds
    "Liquid alternative" mutual funds typically employ hedge-fund-like strategies but don't come with the same restrictions. There isn't a high investment minimum, for example, and the funds aren't as difficult to exit as traditional hedge funds.
    The category encompasses several different subsets, including so-called long-short funds—equity funds that hold long positions in some stocks while betting against others, and managed-futures funds, which bet on futures contracts. Other funds use leverage, or borrowed money, to ramp up their bets.
    Liquid-alternative funds have skyrocketed in popularity, with investors pouring $40 billion into them in 2013, up from $14 billion the previous year, according to Morningstar. This year through June, they have taken in $14.6 billion.
    Fund companies say they offer investors a chance to diversify their portfolio and capture at least some of the upside of stock returns in good markets while offering protection in down markets.
    But skeptics say the strategies often are too complicated for the average investor to understand, and many are too new to have a proven track record. They also come with high fees: an average of 1.9% of total assets, or $190 per a $10,000 investment, compared with 1.2% for a typical actively managed stock mutual fund and 0.6% for a stock index fund, according to Morningstar.
    "They have some ugly baggage and warts they carry," says Mark Balasa of Balasa Dinverno Foltz in Itasca, Ill., a wealth-management firm with $2.8 billion in assets under management. "Advisers are challenged to understand what they do, let alone investors."
    Christopher Van Slyke, founder of WorthPointe, a wealth adviser in Austin, Texas, with $325 million of assets under management, says most of the funds he has seen pitched by investment firms don't have more than a six-month track record. He likens them to a "black box" because of their complex investment strategies.
    Try instead: If you want some shelter from the risk of a bad decline in stocks, you could always keep more of your money in cash instead. It is safer and a lot cheaper.
    Nontraded Real-Estate Investment Trusts
    Nontraded real-estate investment trusts are similar to their public counterparts, which trade like stocks and allow investors to invest in an array of commercial properties.
    Lately, nontraded REITs have been going gangbusters: In 2013, they raised $19.6 billion, up from $10.3 billion in 2012, according to Robert A. Stanger & Co., a Shrewsbury, N.J.-based investment bank that tracks the industry. Through June of this year, nontraded REITs have raised $8.8 billion.
    Investors are attracted to them because of their high dividends—generally as much as 7% on invested capital versus 3% to 4% for publicly traded REITs, according to Green Street Advisors, a research firm in Newport Beach, Calif.
    But nontraded REITs can be hard for investors to unload during a real-estate downturn, advisers say. The investments have become a concern of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the industry's self-regulator. Because they are generally illiquid, their performance and value are difficult to understand and the cost is high, the agency has warned.
    Disclosure is murkier than with publicly traded REITs. While nontraded REITs report their holdings quarterly, investors don't initially know more than the general asset class they are investing in when they buy in—what is known as a "blind pool."
    What's more, say experts, because the REIT isn't trading publicly, it is hard to gauge its value until a liquidity event occurs, such as when the REIT is sold, merged or publicly listed, although the REITs typically use appraisals to report the share value after the offering closes.
    Fees also are high, as much as 11% in initial sales charges to pay the retail broker, the dealer and the back-end costs of putting the REIT together, according to Stanger.
    Nontraded REITs have a mixed track record. Of seven deals that were merged or sold in 2013, four are worth more now than the initial issuing price of the shares, according to Stanger. A $10 share in the Chambers Street REIT, for example, would now be worth $8.04, while a $10 investment in the Cole REIT would be worth $13.56.
    Try instead: Publicly traded REITs aren't nearly as risky and are far more transparent, and they can be a good diversifier in a portfolio, experts say. A mutual fund that holds a basket of commercial real-estate companies also can provide exposure to the market and is liquid, says Dave Homan of Willow Creek Wealth Management in Sebastopol, Calif.
    The $24 billion Vanguard REIT ETF, VNQ +0.01% for example, whose holdings include property developers and REITs, has returned an average of 10.5% over the past three years as of July 10, according to Morningstar. The ETF has an annual expense ratio of 0.1%, or $10 per $10,000 invested.
    Graphic; http://online.wsj.com/news/interactive/INVESTOR0711?ref=SB10001424052702304642804580015090303169012
  • Fund Managers Who Invest Elsewhere: Eating Your Own Cooking
    FYI: Copy & Paste 7/12/14: Sarah Max: WSJ
    Regards,
    Ted
    Just 900 fund managers out of nearly 8,000 funds have more than $1 million invested in their own portfolios. What does that mean for you?
    Active mutual fund managers talk up the importance of insider ownership for the stocks they buy. It's a vote of confidence, they say, when CEOs put their own net worth on the line.
    It stands to reason, then, that mutual fund investors would ask the same of their managers. "It's a positive indicator when managers invest in their own funds," says Stan Mavromates, Americas chief investment officer at Mercer. "It shows real conviction in the stocks and bonds that they're picking."
    Since 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission has required annual disclosure of manager ownership in a fund's statement of additional information. The numbers are given in ranges, from $1 to $10,000 on the low end, to more than $1 million at the top, and they're easy to pull up using Morningstar's FundSpy tool.
    The results are shocking. Of the 7,700 funds tracked by Morningstar, nearly half are run by managers who don't have a single penny in their own funds. There are valid reasons to give some managers a pass -- managers of target-date funds or single-state muni bond funds, for example. It's also reasonable for managers of sector funds or niche strategies to have somewhat smaller stakes.
    Zero ownership, however, should give investors pause, says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar's director of mutual fund research. And that's what some 35% of U.S. stock funds have, according to Morningstar data. "I can't imagine having 35% of my portfolio invested in companies whose CEOs don't own any stock in their company," says Chris Davis, head of the employee-owned Davis Advisors. All five stock Davis funds have more than $1 million of manager money invested.
    WHILE A GOOD DEAL OF RESEARCH has been devoted to the relationship between stock performance and insider ownership, little has been done on the relationship between ownership and performance in the fund world. "We're just starting to test the predictive power of management," says Kinnel. In a 2008 analysis, he found that managers of funds recommended by Morningstar had, on average, $354,000 invested in their own funds. The average stake for managers of funds panned by Morningstar: $52,000.
    Fund companies, for their part, don't require managers to own their own funds, but most encourage it. Fidelity says that more than two-thirds of actively managed public funds are run by managers with at least $1 million invested in those portfolios. At Janus, managers are prohibited from owning individual stocks, and incentive pay -- roughly a third of total compensation -- goes straight into the funds they run, to be vested over four years. Managers have the option of reallocating to other funds, but most stay put. "I've never sold a share of the funds I've managed," says Jonathan Coleman, who has more than $1 million in the Janus Triton (JANIX) and Janus Venture funds (JAVTX).
    High levels of ownership are particularly common -- and especially important -- at boutique firms, which often offer more "high conviction" funds. The more a manager touts his stock-picking, the more of his money should be in the fund. All but two of the 14 funds at Artisan Funds, for instance, are run by managers who have at least a million bucks in their portfolios. "Everyone here has the feeling that it is their business," says Dan O'Keefe, co-manager of Artisan International Value (ARTKX) and Artisan Global Value (ARTGX).
    All told, just 910 funds have at least one manager with a seven-figure stake -- shameful, especially for large-company fund managers. Says Kinnel: "A million dollars isn't that big a hurdle for most managers."
  • Fund Manager Focus: Guy Pope, Manager, Columbia Contrarian Core Fund
    5.75% front end load. Ouch, unless you can buy it with no fee.
  • Fund Manager Focus: Guy Pope, Manager, Columbia Contrarian Core Fund
    FYI: The Columbia Contrarian Core fund may not always look contrarian, but that's because of manager Guy Pope's strict buy-and-sell discipline.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111903684104580024382471486608#printMode
    M* Snapshot Of LCCAX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/lccax/f?t=lccax
    Lipper Snapshot Of LCCAX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lccax
    Fund Is Ranked # 83 In The (LCB) Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-blend/columbia-contrarian-core-fund/lccax
  • Can The FPA Way Survive Generational Change ?
    FYI: The answer, so far, is yes; cultural constants preserve the firm's uncompromising ethos.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=655356