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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Help with Rollover IRA at Price
    Another vote for PRWCX if you can get in. PRHSX is a fine fund for speculation but you may want to be bolder.For cash I would consider Floating Rate(a bit bold) short term bond or ultra short term bond. For international I think I would go outside Price unless you want to use TRP Discovery as a speculation(its a small cap international)To get more diversification with limited work a little bit of the target 2015 fund might make sense You do after all have 6 figures in the account
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Rally; Dow Enjoys Triple-Digit Revival
    FYI: Following steep losses and massive intraday swings over the past five days the U.S. stock market is wrapping up the week on a relative high note, with the main benchmarks registering more than 1% gains on Friday.
    Earlier in the week, investors exhibited panicky selling behavior as concerns over global growth, volatility in oil and the dollar, as well as fear of the spread of Ebola converged.
    On Friday, stocks got a boost from upbeat earnings reports from heavyweights, such as General Electric, Honeywell and Morgan Stanley. Those cheery earnings reports may be just what the markets need
    Regards,
    Ted
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
    WSJ Slant: http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-rally-amid-upbeat-earnings-reports-1413548278#printMode
  • Fidelity: Why Market Volatility is Back
    RE: "The U.S. dollar is soaring and deflation fears are mounting. Stock benchmarks are swinging wildly as global growth fears rise." ... Charles Dickens might love this. "Swinging wildly" has a nice ring. But, is this kind of hype typical of Fidelity's communications with their investors? I hope not. (Perhaps that's the reason I don't own any of their funds.)
    Yes - there's some underlying truth to each point. The dollar has been very strong (sometimes seen as a positive) due to the improving condition of the U.S. economy relative to much of the world and expectations interest rates will be rising here. However, the recent 9% retrenchment in the S&P doesn't even qualify as a normal "correction" under the generally accepted definition of 10% or more. Repeat: Not even a "correction" by standard definition. ... So, another 9% off relatively soon wouldn't surprise me. Nor is it in itself cause for alarm. That's what stock markets do - and have historically done. They rise and fall.
    As guardians of their investors' money, Fidelity owes it to them to shoot straight. Skip the hyperbole. Tell them that valuations are stretched in many markets and they shouldn't expect the kind of stock market gains going forward they've seen over the past 5 years. Caution them about the significant dangers bonds face should rates rise. Point out market sectors where valuations look most attractive. Talk about the virtues of rebalancing periodically for most investors. Above all else, remind them that equity investing is for the long term as measured in years - not day to day or weekly.
  • Intrepid International Fund in registration
    @Vert.
    It's because of the way they handled ICMYX.
    They merged it into ICMUX this past January and touted the reduction in fee.
    ICMUX, which only dates back about 4 years, is a Great Owl Fund.
    Top quintile performer. Max drawdown only -1.4% (September 2011).
    Folks on the board have compared it to David Sherman's conservative funds (RPHYX and RSIVX).
    All good right?
    Except ICMYX was actually the oldest share class with about 7 years performance.
    And, it contained performance for a steady-eddy income fund that would be disconcerting for very conservative investors.
    It drew down -14.6% in November 2008.
    Here's current performance snap shot from their website:
    image
    Note the inception date of Intrepid Income. Performance before August 2010 does not appear, since it was in the different share class.
    To their credit, they do show the earlier quarterly performance in the fund's summary prospectus.
    But most fund screening tools and performance plotters (eg. M*) will just not pick this up.
    As if the poor performance never happened.
    I think it's borderline non-disclosure, calling into question the firm's integrity. So, hard for me to recommend.
    Maybe this stuff is common practice and I'm being too critical.
    Just does not seem right.
  • Fidelity: Why Market Volatility is Back
    FYI: All of a sudden, volatility has returned to the markets. The U.S. dollar is soaring and deflation fears are mounting. Stock benchmarks are swinging wildly as global growth fears rise. And the S&P 500® Index is down roughly 9% from its recent all-time high and is now barely up for the year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/why-market-volatility-is-back
  • Help with Rollover IRA at Price
    Thanks John,
    Yeah, I've always loved Matthews. Wonderful family. I had my original IRA at Price at one time and was able to get really crazy with pm stocks back in the early days of the bull run in 2002 and 3. Geez, they'll trade pink sheets if you've got the chops. That's where I hit a homer with SLW. I was buying in the $2-3 range and it went to $43. OohRah!
    35% int'l is sensible and MAINX is a way to get some portion in int'l bonds.
    I'm with you as to keeping things simple. Geez, I'm busy hugging trees. This is pretty much what I've done with the wife's rollover - put it on cruise control.
    Having a core holding as base also sounds reasonable.
    thanks,
    rono
  • Alternative Mutual Funds: Are They Worth It ?
    Frankly i am not being too scientific about it. First and foremost i wnant to look at the 5 star ls funds who are really nothing but long vehicles and with just 60 exposure are outperforming(sic) their brethren which are true long short funds. You dont need such funds.
    Right now jazzx and pmhdx seem like obvious imposters.
    And by the way my eclectic list of funds is not the ls list. It is other list of funds to buy using my when vs what mantra
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Easy-Money Stock Market Is Over
    Ritholtz knows what he's talking about, generally. And this is part of what he has to say:
    "Has this cyclical rally run its course, and we are now reverting to the bear market that started in 2000? Or, are we merely looking at pause following a hot year within a longer bull market? We won’t know the answer until afterward, but I have been moving toward the secular bull-market camp. But that’s a 10- to 15-year timeline, and the day to day or even week to week is meaningless to these investors.
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    No real surprises for me either. I have a total of 20 funds, some vanilla U.S., some sectors some international or global. My sector funds such as FBTIX, FRUAX, PHSZX lost less than 2% this last week and were also my best ytd plus VPCCX. Of my etfs, sector etfs also did best such as VNQ, PJP both over 15% ytd with 1 week losses contained to -3% or less. I really don't want all my funds and etfs to work the same, I have some of them to limit downside and do well in down markets, the others will do best in strong markets. The stocks I have are all over the board, but 75% of my equity portion of portfolio is etfs and funds.
  • Help with Rollover IRA at Price
    Hi folks,
    Just looking for your goodly wisdom. I'm retired and have a middle six figure 457 account (state gov't) that I just rolled into an IRA at Price (brokerage account). Took care of it online and over the phone in about an hour. Check's in the mail to me to forward. And yes, it's made out to them in my name.
    I wee bit of background. 66 and retired. Active investor for 30 years (e. g. I was buying with my retirement account on Black Friday; I moved all the cash and bonds in both my wife and my retirement accounts into equities when the first Gulf War broke out; I went bullish on gold and silver in 2002 and hit my first homerun with Silver Weaton SLW.) Note that I am a momentum investor as compared to buy & hold.
    I've got a DB pension and social security, no debt and wifey is about the same.
    Some of this IRA I plan to spend wantonly and with great abandon. Some I plan to leave to my estate. Some I'll play with for giggles. What I need to do is to protect and safeguard the majority while covering myself against most economic probabilities. If we start with the traditional allocation it would be something like 34/56/10 - equities, bonds, cash. If I include a speculation fund, let's call it 30/50/10/10.
    What percentage of int'l in each category?
    What equity funds to consider?
    What bond funds to consider?
    What external funds to consider? (i.e. this is a Brokerage account so I could buy a Matthews Asian fund if I wanted).
    Any and all suggestions are most welcome.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    Howdy @Ted
    You noted: ", 2014 will be another year for equities, not bonds."
    I hope you are corrrect about the equity area; as that will help the other 50%.
    You are much more prescient than I in these matters. I'm sure we'll both be satisfied with our risk adjusted investments.
    Lastly, I now recall your note from a few weeks ago regarding a +25% for SPY this year; if my recall is correct. My fingers are crossed for the best.
    Hey, take care.
    Catch
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    This year VNQ was a winner. Lost 2% during last downturn and gained 15% YTD.
    However long term VNQ and generally REIT funds underperform SPY.
  • Causeway Funds in registration
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156906/000119312514373975/d804455d497.htm
    497 1 d804455d497.htm CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TRUST
    Causeway International Opportunities Fund
    Institutional Class (CIOIX)
    Investor Class (CIOVX)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 16, 2014
    TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED OCTOBER 15, 2014
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
    On October 15, 2014, the Causeway International Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”) converted from a “fund of funds” to a Fund making direct investments in securities. Effective as of the date hereof, the seventh paragraph under “Taxes” in the Prospectus is superseded and replaced in its entirety with:
    If you buy shares when the Fund has earned or realized, but not yet distributed, ordinary income or net capital gains, you will be “buying a dividend” by paying the full price of the shares and then receiving a portion of the price back in the form of a taxable distribution. You can avoid this situation by waiting to invest until after the record date for the distribution. The Fund expects to pay significantly increased taxable distributions of net short-term capital gain (that is, the excess of short-term capital gains over short-term capital losses) and net capital gain (that is, the excess of net long-term capital gain over net short-term capital loss) in 2014 due to its conversion on October 15, 2014 from a “fund of funds” structure to directly investing in portfolio securities. This is because when it converted, the Fund redeemed shares in underlying Causeway Funds that had appreciated from the time the Fund purchased the shares, causing the Fund to realize capital gain during 2014. Taxable investors receiving the distributions should be prepared to pay taxes on them (at ordinary income rates for the net short-term capital gain and, for non-corporate shareholders, at the 15% and 20% maximum rates mentioned above for the net capital gain). However, if you are investing in the Fund through a tax-advantaged retirement plan or account, or are a tax-exempt investor, there will be no tax consequences to you from those distributions.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    CCM-SK-022-0100
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    Low volatility-focused funds are fairly good at preservation in a downturn, although they typically won't win much of anything in an upmarket. For one month, which pretty much captures the downturn since Sept. 18:
    VFIAX (Vanguard's S&P 500 index): -6.0
    SPLV: -1.7
    USMV: -2.5
    Those returns basically go with the territory, as there's quite a bit of overlap between low volatility and defensive (utilities and consumer staples, for example).
    Fyi, Vanguard has a new global 'minimum volatility' open-end fund, VMVFX, which ranks in the top 1% of world stock funds for the downturn (1 month) and top 5% year-to-date.
    Of course it's a new fund, and your mileage may vary -
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    Let's not compress everything into one lousy week. For instance, YTD:
    WAFMX: +4.8%
    RHYPX: +1.8%
    RSIVX: +4.2%
    GASFX: +10.7%
    LSBRX: +4.2%
    AMHIX: +13.2%
    ACMVX: +4.5%
    PRBLX: +2.9%
    Figures are from yesterday, for the most part.
    Those are some of mine that are doing OK, and yes, I have another whole bunch that aren't.
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    Thanks. What is confusing me is that there are solid bubbles smaller than some hollow bubbles. I guess the 50 day average varies over time.
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    My better stock funds, 1 week returns as of Oct 15
    ICMAX: -1.11%
    RYSEX: -1.82%
    WAFMX: -1.51%
    Interestingly, they did better than my allocation funds
    FPACX: -2.92%
    OAKBX: -3.45%
    SGENX: -3.33%
    GLRBX: -1.84% (this is actually in my daughter's portfolio)
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    The usual suspects: Cash, high quality bonds, and bearish funds like BEARX and HSGFX usually hold up much better during equity sell-offs. Those last two should be looking at 3-5% gains over the past 3-4 weeks. But that's just a guess. Haven't bothered to check. Gold has also held up well in recent weeks, rebounding from near $1200 to around $1240 today (but is still off big-time for the year). I'll note, FWIW, that Price's RPGAX which dabbles in hedge funds has held up better than some other balanced funds - but has still declined.
    I'm curious however as to the purpose of the question. To me it's very much an academic question in the sense that someone might include small portions of these funds for balance within a long-term oriented portfolio, but none (with the possible exception of RPGAX) look that attractive as core holdings. Just MHO. Thanks for the question.
    Here's a link to some top performers - one month. Enjoy :)
    http://www.barchart.com/funds/1month.php