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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • a quick update on Ted
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/07/26/138576167/when-patents-attack
    Economists say copyright and patent laws are killing innovation; hurting economy
    http://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/13656.aspx
    I thought usufruct was synthetic fructose.
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    OK. one more time: for the railroad pic, above, I copied the following image location from the pic itself:
    http://www.railpictures.net/images/d1/2/3/8/8238.1312815119.jpg
    When you click on the "image" button at the top of a new post, it brings up Accipiter's magic box. You simply paste that image location (http://www.railpictures.net/images/d1/2/3/8/8238.1312815119.jpg) into the box. Not to depreciate the magic box, but all that it actually does is to add this stuff:
    <img src=" before your image location, and
    " /> after your image location
    and sticks it all together to give you:
    <img src="http://www.railpictures.net/images/d1/2/3/8/8238.1312815119.jpg" />
    If, as some have mentioned, you simply get the word "image" instead of the desired picture, either you did something silly or (I've noticed) a few pictures simply won't work using this approach... something about the way in which the pic was embedded in the original site, I'm guessing.
    OJ
    -
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Nope---- it just did not work at all. Might have something to do with my settings in the computer, I dunno. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=623106471138313&set=gm.915317165149443&type=1 (Surprise!)

    no you are not using a link to an image.
    e.g. notice the above post image ends in jpg and is an actual link to an image.
    right click on an image and copy the link and paste into the popup after you click the image icon
    http://www.railpictures.net/images/d1/2/3/8/8238.1312815119.jpg
    cut and paste the above image link into the popup that appears after clicking on the button immediately to the right of the big C and it will work.
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Nope---- it just did not work at all. Might have something to do with my settings in the computer, I dunno. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=623106471138313&set=gm.915317165149443&type=1 (Surprise!)
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Lemme see if I can make the image itself come up... Here's another try.
    image
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Hello, everyone. Here's my contribution. It never occurred to me to use that icon. I used the right-click commands with my mouse. COPY LINK LOCATION, then PASTE.
    https://www.facebook.com/GGiffords/photos/a.382045618709.162743.6593503709/10152403990868710/?type=1

    to me it is alot easier to see full link url visible, and I prefer it on forums, unless you are creating a web page. In a discussion, it is easier to spot and see where your are going then hovering mouse over a pretty link here or there
    to each his own, gets you to the same place.
  • Let's Iron out some things
    I am not a fan of diversification and even less a fan of fund of funds. As for IRNIX it makes no sense. I count 24 of its 25 top holdings as junk corporate funds. That category has returned 3.19% YTD with many greater than that. The woeful IRNIX, a poor man's junk fund of funds, has returned only 2.17% YTD.
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Hello, everyone. Here's my contribution. It never occurred to me to use that icon. I use the right-click commands with my mouse. COPY LINK LOCATION, then PASTE.
    https://www.facebook.com/GGiffords/photos/a.382045618709.162743.6593503709/10152403990868710/?type=1
    .....But then the receiver needs to click on the link to get the pic. Gabby Giffords--- beautiful AND strong--- doing her duty, in the faces of the Tea Party dolts.
  • Presidential Cycles and the S&P 500 Index (SPY)
    Are we in for a 20% correction with respect to the S&P 500 over the next three month? If history rhymes a potential drop in the S&P 500 to around the 1750 level is a good possibility.
    Here's an interesting historical look at where we are in the presidential cycle and the historical returns of the S&P 500 Index during this period (and the next three-six months) of this cycle:
    image
    Link:
    2nd_presidential_years_are_different/
  • How to find the best stock-picking fund managers?
    My comments from one of Ted's links, here, was as follows:
    For those invested in model portfolios, these findings are critical. "What the active share research has revealed," said Prahl, "is that managers relying on market timing are less likely, on average, to add value than managers who engage in stock picking." For those opting for passive portfolios, "stock picking is a lot to give up," he added. "That's what the active share literature shows."
    Ibbotson's critique of the 90% rule—combined with active share research showing that diversified, highly active stock pickers have consistently added alpha—means that investors should no longer rely strictly on strategic allocation for their long-run returns.

    Lord Abbett Study:
    asset-allocation-and-the-90-percent-rule
    This chart, from the study, attributes fund performance to:
    image
  • How to Scare Yourself Stupid
    Hi Catch,
    Thank you for your interest and unexpected reply.
    Not unexpected in terms of a direct topic exchange, but unexpected by the focus change that your post took. Great stuff. I had not thought whatsoever of what beneficial impact a risk understanding would have on our youth if introduced early in the educational process.
    But apparently Gerd Gigerenzer has made that linkage in his “Risk Savvy” book. I have not yet read this recent release, but I have ordered it and anticipate some practical lessons that are exploitable. The subject matter is in my curiosity wheelhouse.
    I always focus attention on the odds of any real world scenario and how to improve them. Along those lines, I purchased Gregory Baer’s “Life: the Odds (and how to improve them)” a few years ago. Statistical data is fascinating.
    For example, Baer reports that the odds of a golfing hole-in-one improve as the distance shortens (no surprise here). It’s 15,000 to 1 at 175 yards and drops to 13,000 to 1 at 150 yards.
    As equipment has improved with time, so has the odds of bowling a perfect game. Currently the odds are 4,000 to 1 for each full game; twenty years ago those odds were a staggering 89,000 to 1. Change happens and matters greatly. Investors must be familiar with past stock market annual rewards to make informed investment decisions.
    Gerd Gigerenzer is an acknowledged expert on risk identification and management. He is an advocate for an early introduction of statistical thinking into schools. Our statistical illiteracy is staggering and detracts from our successes during our entire life.
    Gigerenzer’s answer is to incorporate a multi-component statistical curriculum starting at the sub-high school level. His proposed curriculum would include health, financial, and digital risk literacy segments. Each of these elements would be subdivided into statistical thinking, rules of thumb and the psychology of risk according to a review by Omar Malik.
    Gigerenzer is a popular public speaker. He has recently appeared on a TED video. Here is a Link to one of his talks:

    I hope you enjoy it. I did.
    Thanks again for your comments. They certainly expanded the discussion context in a positive direction.
    Best Wishes.
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    I dunno, folks- I just copied this first image from a randomly-picked NY Times article,
    image
    and this one from a railroad pictures site that I happen to be looking at:
    image
    and they both worked just fine.
    Remember, for pics you don't copy the URL- you need to copy the image location.
    By the way, that User Guide is quite out of date now, as MFO has morphed to a later version of Vanilla. Perhaps one of these days I'll revise that guide, but man, that was a lot of work!
    OJ
    -
  • "TIP" toeing through the world of bonds.....
    Many sectors/funds slip past our view, in our ever changing world of investing. Most of us are too busy with family and making a monetary living to watch everything, all of the time.
    Since late February of this year, we returned some of our monies back into direct investments in TIPs funds.
    Yes, there are those who poo-poo such areas of investments.
    The argument against, generally being that such investments have such low yields; why in the world would anyone want to invest.
    Not unlike equity investing, we look at these from a price point. Yield from bonds, not unlike a dividend from an equity is not usually our focus with a fund holding. If both price and yield work together to some extent; well, all the better, eh?
    As to TIPs in general; several areas may affect their value or lack of; being a safe haven, cash equivalent holdings for some funds, pension funds and the persception of inflation.
    Generally, if conditions are favorable; TIPs holdings are our "cash" for parking monies.
    Lastly, with active managed TIPs funds; one will find a variety of holdings. As seen in the below list; duration of holdings plays an important role, and that many TIPs funds will not be 100% in this bond area; but will also hold other investment grade bond types.
    Well, anyway; just a few blips about this area.
    A sampling..... YTD numbers, as of Aug 5
    ---LTPZ, + 17%
    ---STPZ, + 1.6%
    ---TIPZ, + 6.7%
    ---TIP, + 6.1%
    ---FINPX, + 5.9%
    ---ACITX, + 5.6%
    ---BPRIX, + 6%

    Note: TIP 5 year annualized = 5.6%
    Take care,
    Catch
  • How to find the best stock-picking fund managers?
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=659713#cpage=0
    I found this article interesting as it suggests if you find a manager who outperforms his/her peers when their sector bets are working against them, then you'll find a manager who outperforms his/her peers in the future. Maybe this shouldn't be terribly surprising but I'd not thought about it in this context before.
    Unfortunately, and even more unfortunately this seems far too common at M*, I'm not aware they share how they attribute a fund manager's performance to his stock-picking vs. sector bets. They're more than happy to let me search for the best performing funds in whatever category over many different time periods at the same time they, and everyone else for that matter, tell you that chasing the hot performers will lump you in with the rest of the "irrational" investing public, but they won't make it possible to do more thoughtful research based on the teaser articles they publish.
    It made me think of the discussion about Mr. Snowball's monthly commentary. One of David's comments, paraphrasing, was that he's always thinking about how he can make things even better. In this regard, I think this site does a great job of providing information that's useful to thoughtful investors trying to make good decisions. I would encourage you to continue to add information, such as you've done with active share or the ulcer index, that helps people understand what they're really paying that 1-2% expense ratio for.
  • How much is too much (GPEOX)?
    I am a retiree with a moderately invested 40/60 portfolio (significant mega cap domestic holdings) which as we know already has exposure to emerging market. I currently have a 5.35% allocation to GPEOX, which is my only "sector fund" exposure to Emerging Markets. I hope to open at least an equal allocation to SFGIX soon. Keeping in mind that I would really like to reduce bond exposure going forward, regarding the pending hard close of GPEOX, how much small cap is too much?
    ...I can tell you that I'm retired, too---but early. Wife works. In small-caps we both hold two specific funds: MSCFX and NAESX. But you mention GPEOX, which is FOREIGN small-caps. That's a horse of a different color.
    In our portfolio, MSCFX = 2.41% of holdings, and NAESX is less than 1%, still.
    I don't know the particulars of your full picture, but an existing position of 5.35% in GPEOX seems enough.
    I bet PRESX will take some further beating, along with other Europe shares. If things remain tense politically in Eastern Europe and there's more killing, I may take profits at my usual time, just after the New Year every year, and add to PRESX rather than PRWCX, which is the general plan. It's cold and heartless. But all the money's dirty, anyhow. I anguish over the lives lost and the idiots who lead countries!
    Don't be afraid to "go offshore." My bonds are just 10% of holdings, now, and my domestic/foreign split in equities is about 50/50. I've held MACSX since 2003. (MAPIX is currently closed.) many of us in here hold SFGIX, too.
    "Break a leg."
  • fund companies bleeding assets
    Sorry, this is a little of topic:
    Sometimes I speed up selling a fund that is on my "sell list" when I see excessive outflows, just to avoid the negative effects of the fund being forced to sell (usually in a down market). My question is: Where in Morningstar or other convenient sources can one easily find an AUM statistic for an individual fund? I can't find this in Morningstar, but maybe I don't know where to look for it.
    Pete64, you can find the AUM in Morningstar on the Quote tab, which is to the far left, and usually the one that opens by default. I'll point it out with an arrow
    image
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Testing 234 Image Button
    image image
    MFO has the word "undefined" in the box for the URL of the image. I tried removing that word, and also leaving it there......same result each time.
    I've reviewed the correct way to find the URL of a graphic image using Internet Explorer (which is different than with Firefox, which is what the MFO Guide shows)
    And read the MFO User Guide section on using the Image button
    image
  • Do Active Funds Have A Future ?
    Chap, you will want to screen (maybe elsewhere) also by manager tenure (longevity); Pinto, I think it is, at Janus Balanced, has been active since only 05 or something like that. (He seems as good as they come, I must add.) In any case, there are active funds, a few, that have outdone indexes over long period with one person or team, and a very few with superior dip protection 08-09 (my and others' complaint with the Owl ranking). Yes, I know this is survivor bias. Still, worth saluting. MAPOX is an amazing achievement for sure. Those Wisconsin guys (OAKBX guys too).
  • How to Scare Yourself Stupid
    The quote:
    “People aren't stupid. The problem is that our educational system has an amazing blind spot concerning risk literacy. We teach our children the mathematics of certainty -- geometry and trigonometry -- but not the mathematics of uncertainty, statistical thinking.”
    >>>Nothing else is being taught that measures or assesses risk???
    I see a bunch of risk assessment taking place in our school system; and "it ain't got noth'in" to do with math.
    1. bullying
    2. school lockdowns (practice drills) to prepare the staff and students for the event of a person who has chosen to cause harm at a particular facility.
    3. plain old fights taking place in classrooms, the hallways and cafeteria.
    4. risk literacy arrives in many forms in schools. Those who take the chances of failure from participation in any number and/or forms within the social fabric of a school society. Four years of being the backup quarterback for the high school football team, busting their butts to achieve a place or a position within any number of other school functions; but not always reaching the goal from any number of circumstances.
    5. Sadly, for too many in some school systems, is the risk of being able to arrive at school for another day of study; without the risk of violence to them traveling to school.
    The society of young folks in school systems is a world unto itself. There is risk with many things these young people deal with everyday within their school system; be it the staff/teachers or the other students of this special society.
    I did not read the linked article; but hopefully it is more than data studies about math and risk, and how students do not understand risk.
    Respectfully,
    Catch
  • Do Active Funds Have A Future ?
    Here is a result from a MFO Fund database search, sorted by UI - ulcer index, lower is better. These funds, over a 20 year period, performed well compared to the S&P 500 (VFINX) with lower drawdowns in 2009. Over the past 3 years these funds have captured only about 70% of the S&P gain (my ball park estimate), but one could anticipate that they would also capture less of the next drawdown, making it easier to stick with your plan.
    Fund APR MDD UI
    MAPOX 10.3 -33.1 6.2
    JABLX 10.3 -22.2 6.3
    VWELX 10.1 -32.5 6.4
    PRWCX 11.3 -36.6 6.5
    FPACX 11.1 -28.8 6.7
    JAMBX 7.4 -29.0 10.5
    VFINX 9.7 -51.0 17.6
    Apologies - I have not yet figured out how to post a result from the "Risk Profile" scan.