Annual Asset Class Returns: Version Of Callan Periodic Tables Hi Charles,
Congratulations! You are asking the right questions before making a portfolio adjustment decision. Do the candidate funds really provide diversification benefits? If so, how much? What are the opportunity costs? A few numbers might help answer those issues and guide that decision.
Of course, much depends on your targets, both in terms of goal portfolio growth rates and timeframe. Defining the target is a preliminary necessary opening task. As Lucius Annaeus Seneca recorded: “When a man does not know what harbor he is heading for, no wind is the right wind”.
The Portfolio Visualizer website that I referenced earlier offers some nice tools that you might want to exercise to generate a guideline data set.
Just enter your current portfolio mutual fund symbols and the PIMCO All Asset, All Authority Institutional fund symbol (PAUIX) into the correlation coefficient calculator to generally assess any diversification pluses. You might want to test the stability of the correlations by repeating the computation for several timeframes of differing lengths.
I did a few calculations, and as usual, there are tradeoffs to consider. Indeed, Rob Arnott’s PAUIX responds to a different lead drummer. He is a smart active fund manager who is supported by an excellent research staff. These guys are superior number crunchers.
The PAUIX correlation coefficients offer significant diversification. But there is a price for it. Arnott’s approach has delivered reduced returns at higher volatility levels over the last 3 and 5 year periods relative to Balanced mutual funds (DODBX, VWELX, VWINX) during this same timeframe. Only you can judge if the diversification benefit is worth the implied risk.
Another deeper level of analysis is needed to help provide guidance when addressing these tradeoffs. The Monte Carlo option on the Portfolio Visualizer site might be deployed to advantage on this problem.
In this instance, the Visualizer Monte Carlo code can only provide generic trend-lines since it does not do specific mutual funds; it only does its analysis using investment fund categories. But even with that compromise, the tool can be useful in the decision process,
Do a simplified baseline simulation without emerging market or commodities components. Select an appropriate time-span. Next, for several simulations, input different percentages of more complex Emerging Market, Precious Metal, etc, elements.
These calculations will allow you to develop a feeling for the impact of further diversification in terms of a probable end wealth and a minimum portfolio value that measure risk. By adjusting the input portfolio percentages you will experimentally test how much is needed to significantly influence the end game outcomes. These informative sensitivity studies will improve your decision making. Numbers help.
Best Wishes for a Successful Decision.
S&P 500 Top Record Level: Up, Up And Away FYI: The Linkster repeats, S&P 500 to finish up 15% in 2014
Regards,
Ted
I'll be very happy if the Linkster's S&P
500 forecast for end of year comes true.
Ted, if you're right on that, we're going to have to get you onto the Barron's Roundtable and CNBC, to forecast the 201
5 outlook for the stock market.
Invest With An Edge Weekly ... Fed Awaiting Liftoff
S&P 500 Top Record Level: Up, Up And Away FYI: The S&P
500 jumped 0.3 percent to a record 1,991.72 at 10:28 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 73.91 points, or 0.4 percent, to 17,0
53.04, climbing above 17,000 for the first time since July 29. The Russell 2000 Index slid 0.4 percent for a second day of losses. Trading in S&P
500 companies was 17 percent below the 30-day average for this time of the day. The Linkster repeats, S&P
500 to finish up 1
5% in 2014
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-21/u-s-stock-index-futures-rise-with-s-p-500-near-record.htmlThe
5th Dimension: Up Up And Away
:

Format buttons "disappear" when I wish to "edit" a post As a respondant who wishes to edit more than just text the format buttons are no longer available...here's what I see:

Format buttons "disappear" when I wish to "edit" a post Wondering if the (formatting) buttons can be maintained when a poster wishes to later edit their post and wants to add a link, image, etc.
I find these buttons disappear and the only way for me to accomplish an edit is go into an additional comment box and then cut and paste these "edits" into my original post that I wish to edit.
This doen't happen if I start a post and then wish to edit, only is I am a respondant and then wish to edit.
Here's what the two boxes look like:

Now if I want to come back and edit as a respondant there are no format buttons limiting my editting to text only (spelling errors, etc.)
3 Dividend Funds With Yields higher Than 3% We have no problem using funds to build income portfolios. Aside from the many bond funds that are well-run and offer acceptable yields (and that are not loaded with long-term junk), there are a number of low-octane, diversified stock funds and what we would call alternative or dynamic allocation funds that fit the bill.
Preferred stocks are a b.... to buy individually, as witnessed by my post to a thread on that topic earlier. While we recognize the overall premium prices for most preferred stocks, KIFYX has done an ok job, and they have actually reduced the dividend to account for lower yields rather than load up the portfolio with holdings that are too risky. It bears watching, however. PAUIX provides a very generous dividend while maintaining a very reasonable risk profile.
Stock funds that seem appropriate include Schwab's SCHF, with a 2.54% yield. Hennessey GASFX comes in at 2.41%. SPDR's SDY is 2.27%. Wasatch WASIX is 2.8%. If MLPs are part of your income strategy, Oppenheimer Steel Path is attractive. Matthews MAPIX has always had a decent dividend, last 12 months has been 2.84%. Federated Intl IVFIX is at 4.71%.
An investor can be as conservative or aggressive as they want and still find decent yield. And it is possible to construct a diversified mix of funds that provide an attractive yield. Of course, one can go the individual stock route. For most folks, however, using ETFs or MFs can be a lot easier. No method is foolproof. One should consider, however, where the underlying positions' gains have been and perhaps weight the mix of portfolio holdings accordingly. Some folks just want to do better than a money market or short-term CD, and there are a lot of options available, but buyer beware in terms of risk they might be buying.
Vanguard, Eaton Vance Chart Diverging Paths On Interest Rate Risk Like her one-time mentor, Dan Fuss, Kathleen Gaffney apparently thinks all of the sweet bond fruit is picked over and the market is ripe for a correction.
As of 6.30.14, EVBAX looks to have 20% cash reserves, about 25% of its assets in non-US bonds (developed/EM), almost 18% in common stocks,12% convertibles, nearly 10% HY and less than 8% investment grade corporate bonds. 0.0% in US government-related bonds.
A Look At The Markets ... Good morning John and others,
I sold off three funds, of my fifty two, awhile back and parked the proceeds in cash. Thus far I have only deployed about 25% of these proceeds back into the market. Although, I have done a little buying, thus far, I still have a good amount of cash targeted to go back into the market. Let's see we still have September & October to transverse. Perhaps a good dip, or better, will present itself by then.
A good number of investors hate to see the dips, and pull backs, when they arrive ... but, I take them as opportunity. For if one has rolled out of some stuff they no longer wish to own then the dips, and pull backs, present themselves as buying opportunity to roll back into other more productive areas. I look at some of my positions as crops in the field. If they are not harvested then they stand a good chance to wither.
Old_Skeet
A Look At The Markets ...
Junk Bond Funds----What Record Outflows Are Telling Investors
Yup. Excerpt: "Last week alone, $2.6 billion in Asian junk bonds were issued—making it the busiest week for issuance of debt below investment-grade this year, pushing the total so far this year to US$17.8 billion, according to Dealogic, a data provider. Issuers last week included Indian energy company Greenko Group PLC and Chinese developer Modern Land (China) Co.
The surge contrasts with events in the U.S. There, junk bonds have been sold off as investors reconsider following a rally, spurred by rising geopolitical risks and concerns that eventual interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve could dent the attraction of fixed-income assets."
(Dated 30th July, '14.)
Junk Bond Funds----What Record Outflows Are Telling Investors There's
this from Aug 14, here at MFO.
During the sell-down, none of our active managed HY funds moved below a -2% retreat for the time frame. The return, on average for these funds for the past month is about +.
5%.
Junk Bond Funds----What Record Outflows Are Telling Investors
Junk Bond Funds----What Record Outflows Are Telling Investors Try this
@JohnChisum,
Click on Ted's link, then click on comments...scroll back up and the article appeared for me...weird, but effective.

Junk Bond Funds----What Record Outflows Are Telling Investors
Two Direxion funds to liquidate
Annual Asset Class Returns: Version Of Callan Periodic Tables
Eaton Vance Multi-Cap Growth Fund to close to new investors http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/102816/000094039414001195/multicap_growthfundspprosupp.htm497 1 multicap_growthfundspprosupp.htm MULTICAP_GROWTH_FUND_SP_PRO_SUPP_DTD_8_20_14
Eaton Vance Multi-Cap Growth Fund
Supplement to
Prospectus dated January 1, 2014 and
Summary Prospectus dated January 1, 2014
On September 19, 2014, Eaton Vance Multi-Cap Growth Fund will discontinue all sales of its shares, except shares purchased by: (1) existing shareholders (including shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends and distributions); (2) employer sponsored retirement plans; or (3) fee-based programs (a) sponsored by financial intermediaries for which investment decisions are made on a centralized basis at the discretion of the firm (e.g., model portfolios managed by a firm or its investment committee); and (b) that have selected the Fund prior to the close of business on September 19, 2014.
August 20, 2014
16011 8.20.14
best way to use this chart? Nice chart. It does go out to 5 years. I found it hard to see numbers in brownish squares.
have a nice day, Derf