"Jeez, nothing like sarcastic preemption to cloud the facts. "
How about the religious zealot-level of devotion to theory, to the point where anyone who doesn't agree with you is insulted and given a reading list so you can make sure they are properly indoctrinated? I would be fascinated the response on this board if Krugman came out tomorrow and said he was becoming a Republican. It would be like telling kids there is no Santa.
And at least perhaps my light post gave a couple of people a chuckle. Ultimately, the decision that I have made is to do the only thing I can do: figure where I believe things are going and invest in a manner that expresses those beliefs. I will be light, I will occasionally be sarcastic, because honestly, we can sit here and argue about economic theory, but ultimately I don't believe that I have one iota of say (or do the people on this board, unless one of you is an FOMC member that the rest of us are unaware of) as to the ultimate direction this economy is being taken in. Beyond that, we live in an economy where there have been more than a few examples of "if the numbers don't confirm the narrative, change the numbers." We don't like GDP? Lets change how it's calculated. Ah, all better. Or, the goalposts are endlessly moved.
Given my lack of control, all I can do is attempt to try and think ahead and play futurist and invest accordingly. That's all I can do and coming to terms with that fact is ultimately freeing from the standpoint of, I don't care what one FOMC member does today and that another will ultimately probably contradict them a day or two later. I may not agree with monetary policy, but you know what, I really just don't care as much. I know that this period will end badly -and I say that with the utmost certainty - but I've invested in the manner that I think is appropriate. And that's all I can do. Maybe I'll crack jokes on here on occasion, I just think it's a better use of time than becoming stressed when someone says something I don't agree with.
All of this arguing on the internet does nothing, it fixes nothing and it's ultimately a waste of time. I love productive conversation - any sort of discussion of monetary policy or politics is ultimately futile because people have grown so deeply fixated on their beliefs that anyone else is often largely either shouted down or ignored. So, why do it? Or why not crack a few jokes. If I get someone to smile when I post a joke post with a "The More You Know" PSA at the end, that's worthwhile to me. I'm happy to talk about investments for hours on end, but the divisiveness of people in regards to certain topics does often lead to a joke because ultimately, I'd rather laugh than be upset over the internet about views of someone else's that I know with great certainty they have no interest whatsoever in changing. When I do crack a joke or make light, it's the almost religious devotion to political parties that shows itself. As I've said before on this board, it's the internet, don't get stressed by someone who doesn't agree with you - you'll never get everyone to agree with you. If you can have a constructive conversation on the internet - an increasing rarity - be happy.
As for Krugman, I find Krugman's delight over destruction (to the point where he went on cable news and suggested that creating a real life sequel to "Independence Day" would be a great idea) as "GDP positive!" to be disturbing, among other issues. This is not exactly something that one has to search for examples of, either - there are more than a few, to the point where Krugman has been parodied for this on multiple occasions.
His wild-eyed rant on CNN about how a "fake alien invasion would help GDP" - where to begin, aside from the fact that the man looked out of his mind. As far as I'm concerned, if someone can look at this video (
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/15/krugman-you-know-what-this-economy-needs-a-space-alien-invasion/) and say, "Gee, he sounds like someone who I want to follow", then please, go right ahead.
"No one says enormous sustained financed spending (on anything, not just infrastructure, it could be on unneeded weapons) at multiples larger than productive economic activity is a good idea. Meaning sure, heedless debt can pose a threat to financial stability. But it's not like that now"
Well, I'm very glad that you are trusting of this government to spend money so wisely and regulate spending so well. The complete faith in the system and the small group tasked with regulating it is really quite remarkable.
"It's not like that now." Nor will it ever get out of hand, right? Nor have there
ever been any examples in history, right? But we're different, right?
It's the attitude that the increasingly complex and interconnected global economy can be dialed up and down like an air conditioner that irks me. "It's fine now, right?" "Want it a little warmer, a little cooler? Easy peasy."
How much confidence do you have that you can control this? "100%?" I'm sure Bernanke wouldn't have said "Ehhhh,
50/
50", but can you really have 100% confidence in controlling a system that has grown increasingly complex, even since 2008? In a system that is interconnected and relies heavily upon confidence - something that's difficult to control, especially once it is lost? Where are we, several years of ZIRP and multiple QE's later? The world isn't ending, but the ROI for what has been the easiest monetary policy in history seems rather lackluster and now we're here with weak GDP growth and little in the way to stop the Winter that we've been trying to put off and buy our way out of for so long.
I have a significant fascination with how things work. However, I tend to focus it on learning more about science, industry, other cultures and other such things. I can have my views on economic theory and monetary policy, but as I get a little older I suppose I want to devote time to topics that are ultimately more enjoyable and perhaps a tad more positive.
People lack respect for the potential volatility, complexity and fragility of the global economy - 2008 was a delightful example, but it's clear that we haven't learned anything.
Ultimately, going back to the topic at hand, as I noted above, there have been enough studies that I don't doubt that the graphs are likely "in the general vicinity" of being correct.
