FYI: (I'd stick with PFF)
With 10-year Treasury yields up more than 12% over the past month, plenty of income-generating are being pressured. The list includes, but is not limited to, longer-dated bonds and real estate investment trusts.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etftrends.com/2015/05/the-right-preferred-etf-right-now/

@Sven said Something is very fishy with Hanergy.
Hanergy not the only funny money valuation on the various Chinese Exchanges.
"Hanergy and Goldin Financial Hldgs both...surged more than sixfold in the past 12 months. Across the border in Shenzhen, there are 103 stocks that rallied that much in a year, compared with only four in the former British colony. Among the 1,721 stocks on the Shenzhen Composite Index,only four have declined this year.
“Hanergy and Goldin are a good reminder for investors in China,” Ronald Wan, chief executive at Partners Capital International Ltd. said in Hong Kong. “They have a close similarity with many stocks in Shenzhen which have rallied based on speculation rather than fundamentals.”
The 103 stocks in the Shenzhen 500 percent club trade at an average 375 times reported earnings, while their average market capitalization has risen to $3.5 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Many of them recently sold shares for the first time."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-22/hanergy-goldin-s-wild-rides-are-nothing-next-to-shenzhen-stocks

from a video interview yesterday with Jason Stipp: "The 5-star fund is off to a great start, and Andrew is on our fund analyst short list of managers to watch." A bit more discussion of China but otherwise Andrew covers much of the same ground that we covered in the conference call.
For what interest it holds,
David

@TSP_Transfer: Hello !
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/21225/jeffrey-gundlach-warns-advisers-on-unconstrained-bond-funds#latest

FYI: Many market watchers have warned this year about a highflying Chinese solar stock—Hanergy Thin Film Power Group—and its leading role in popular ways to bet on solar stocks like one Guggenheim ETF.
On Wednesday, Hanergy’s 0566, -46.95% aerial routine ended with a crash, as one Wall Street Journal headline put it. And the Hong Kong-listed stock’s dive after a meteoric rise was helping to take down the Guggenheim Solar ETF TAN, +2.95%
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-solar-stock-implosion-a-reminder-to-look-under-an-etfs-hood-2015-05-20/print

Ukraine raised the pressure on creditors to accept a writedown on their holdings on Tuesday when it passed a bill enabling the government to halt payments if it can’t reach agreement with bondholders by its June 15 target.
Knife-catchers Noteholders BTG Pactual Europe LLP, Franklin Advisers Inc., TCW Investment Management Company and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. formed a committee awhile back and submitted the outline of a proposed consensual restructuring last month, followed by a detailed proposal on May 9th. Still waiting at the negotiating table for Ukraine to show up.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/05/18/2129699/and-then-there-were-four-ukraine-bonds-edition/
Russia (pre-crisis $3B noteholder) calls the BS what it is and may take a different route. The Russian bond is governed by English law and any disputes related to it would be settled in an English court, according the bond prospectus. The bond has a covenant allowing the holder to demand its money back if Ukraine’s public debt tops 60 percent of economic output, which the IMF said took place last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-20/russia-will-take-ukraine-to-court-if-june-coupon-payment-missed
Experts agree that Tuesday's vote meant a technical default for the country and would impede Ukraine’s ability to raise private investment from the EU and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB), a European source told TASS on Wednesday. Failure to cut a deal risks future tranches of a $17.5 billion International Monetary Fund loan that Ukraine needs.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-20/putin-pans-ukraines-debt-moratorium-de-facto-default-threatens-court

More Gundlach
DoubleLine Capital founder said managers with wide latitude are taking too much risk
By Trevor Hunnicutt | May 20, 2015 - 1:25 pm EST InvestmentNews
EXPENSIVE SHORT
"At the heart of Mr. Gundlach's concerns are the use by managers of a potentially expensive short on Treasuries, the cost of which weighs on returns.
The trade is used to achieve negative duration and benefit from rising rates, and is often coupled with low-credit junk bonds of the same maturity as the shorted Treasuries. (Duration measures the potential sensitivity of a bond's price to rate increases.)
Mr. Gundlach described that trade as an “unacceptably high commitment to credit risk” that's “long credit risk and short safety.”
“Investors are probably encouraged to believe that the funds will always go up, and I think that's poor communication on the part of the sponsors,” said Mr. Gundlach."
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150520/FREE/150529994?template=printart

@Heezsafe: Hello !
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/21207/etf-industry-hits-morbid-milestone-500-funds-have-come-and-gone#latest

This is simply a factoid post, in the interest of "keeping it current."
http://investwithanedge.com/500-etf-closures
A grand total of 2,207 ETFs and ETNs have been listed on US exchanges. 1,929 have been ETFs and 278 have been ETNs. 500 closures consist of 430 ETFs and 70 ETNs. So far, ETF survivability has been 77.7% and ETN survivability comes in at 74.8%. Of the 1,712 products still remaining and listed for trading today, a full 315 are on the May ETF Deathwatch list. [There were 113 starts in the past 6 months, not included in the deathwatch stats]

"For reasons that escape me, you assume that I should be conversant with happenings in San Francisco. Why?"
Pretty straightforward: In response to my observation that "I'll leave the engineering to the designers of our new Bay Bridge section" you INITIATED a commentary which strongly suggested that you were conversant with our current engineering fiasco. Remember that? It was only a few hours ago, after all.
Mostly Just Gas. Of course you're not repentant; your self-biased double-standard allows you that luxury. By the way, in contradiction to your speculation regarding "psyches" I kinda like my "Zebra stripes", and honestly don't consider you to be any sort of credible threat.

@MJG:
No, no! Your brief concession that you knew nothing about its status doesn’t answer the muster call. It didn’t sound the trumpet; it was barely a whisper. Apparently you posted that without reading it yourself. Given its unsuitable character, I suspect you yourself never did even casually examine it. That’s shamefully dishonest.
Your creditability is shot; it is done and it is your own doing. Based on this present experience, any checking of your references is a grand time sinkhole. I will not play that wasteful game. Please don’t bother to now search for seemingly applicable counter references. You would be wasting your precious time.
Your very own words, MJG. How do they feel on the receiving end? Does this perhaps give you a clue as to why some of us don't care for your "style"? Can you possibly be so obtuse as to not see that you apply a very different standard to yourself compared to what you demand from others? We are "guttersnipers", you of course are merely "a happy warrior" gently adjudicating from a position of ineffable authority.
"Comments are better directed at the message, and not the messenger."
Indeed.

"The planned Bay Bridge section will be a huge success and will be a lasting example of American engineering expertise for a century or more."
[Timeline of problems/costs in 2015, as opposed to those found and paid for in 2013]
Unfortunately, subscription to the Chronicle is required for these articles, so I haven't provided linkage. If you are interested I suspect that corroborating information is available on the internet.

SFGate is pretty good at providing access to Chron articles.
Try here: http://www.sfgate.com/author/jaxon-van-derbeken/
(a list of recent articles by the reporter via SFGate), starting with the most recent (updated Monday):
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Salty-water-swamping-some-Bay-Bridge-rods-6268443.php

I just spoke with a representative of JOHCM who mentioned that as of end of February, JOMIX was available in a limited number of states (CA, NY, FL, VA, TX, plus a few others). He said their goal is to make it available in all states. When? He didn't know but gave me a phone number to call at Northern Trust - 866-260-9549. My advice is to continue watching until it becomes available.

"The planned Bay Bridge section will be a huge success and will be a lasting example of American engineering expertise for a century or more."
@MJG: With respect to the new Eastern tower of the Bay Bridge, it is evident that your commentary is completely divorced from reality. Construction is well past the planning stage. It has been, theoretically at least, completed, and has been in service for some time now. Ironically your comment regarding American engineering expertise may well be accurate, although perhaps not in the sense that you meant it. Here is a short list of recent articles from the San Francisco Chronicle:
• March 1, 2015 Bay Bridge leaks: Toll payers on hook for Caltrans' blunders
• March 16, 2015 Tests of Bay Bridge rods find more widespread cracking
• April 3, 2015 Anchor rod on Bay Bridge may have snapped
• April 6, 2015 Snapped anchor rod adds to Bay Bridge concerns
• April 23, 2015 Caltrans was warned of Bay Bridge leaking before span opened
• May 5, 2015 Ominous signs of problems with new Bay Bridge foundation
• May 7, 2015 Bay Bridge news gets worse: Tower rod fails key test
• May 9, 2015 Plague of problems puts Bay Bridge seismic safety in question
• May 11, 2015 Bay Bridge revelations are 'game changers,' panel chief says
• May 11, 2015 The bridge oversight panel approved spending up to $4 million in tolls to find out the extent of the Bay Bridge's problems.
Your historic footage of the Tacoma Narrows disaster is well-known, except perhaps to the current crop of engineers responsible for the Eastern span of the San Francisco Bay Bridge. At this point the ability of the new span to resist, without serious damage, the earthquake that it was allegedly designed to handle is very much in doubt. Evidently neither a spreadsheet nor Monte Carlo modeling was used by the bridge engineers.
Unfortunately, subscription to the Chronicle is required for these articles, so I haven't provided linkage. If you are interested I suspect that corroborating information is available on the internet.
Edit/Add: Thanks to later info from msf, here are some links that should work to illustrate many of the above references:
SFGate is pretty good at providing access to Chron articles.
Try here: http://www.sfgate.com/author/jaxon-van-derbeken/
(a list of recent articles by the reporter via SFGate), starting with the most recent (updated Monday):
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Salty-water-swamping-some-Bay-Bridge-rods-6268443.php
Thanks much, msf!
Regards- OJ

Hi Dex,
Given the 12 Monte Carlo simulations that I completed, your objections to exactly how the composite 350K nest-egg presumed in the analyses was deployed is at the noise level.
The final 6 simulations I ran postulated that the total 350K was entirely invested in a portfolio earning at an annual 7% rate. That is a bounding calculation.
That bounding calculation set does project a higher portfolio survival expectation. The survival odds get much better, but a significant potential bankruptcy is still in the picture. The results were too close to the cliff for my comfort.
Many workarounds exist, like changing the annual spending profile downward after a market negative year (the wine is an attractive target). Small changes impact portfolio survival prospects. Monte Carlo analyses should never be the only input in retirement decision making.
You seem to have made your decision. You asked and didn't like my analyses outcomes. I didn't give you the confirmation encouragement that you were seeking. I certainly am not trying to dissuade you from your decision. I'm simply reporting the results of very few calculations.
I never make stock or mutual fund recommendations on MFO or anywhere else either. Do what you want to do. Just go for it. Good luck.
Best Wishes.

Eeek!
Some incredible numbers-crunching & analysis.
- Did anyone mention that staying healthy for as long as possible is an "investment" - and one you have a great deal more control over than stock and bond market gyrations? I'm talking about not smoking, limiting alcohol intake, lots of fruit & veggies, daily workouts, etc. Those medical bills for in-home care will kill you. Poor health will rob you of the ability to enjoy the fruits of your investments. And, if your health deteriorates to the point you can no longer manage your own finances, what good is Monte Carlo or any of this other mumbo-jumbo?
- Has anyone mentioned that investments which appreciate the most during inflationary periods might offer the best protection in retirement? The current low inflation environment may favor bonds and equities. However, the underperforming (typically "hard") assets in today's economy are precisely the ones which should outperform during periods of high inflation. So, investing for current growth may be different than buying future inflation protection. The worst thing about inflation is that prices compound in the same manner that money does. At 10% annual inflation, a $2 loaf of bread today will cost you $3.22 five years from now and about $5.20 in ten years. A new car selling for $20,000 today would "inflate" to $32,210 in five years and $51,875 in ten years. Apply the same rate of increase to insurance premiums, property taxes, medical expenses, and you've got a serious problem that - I'm afraid - few retiring today even contemplate.
- Anyone who has ever constructed a household budget in retirement knows that while income tends to remain fairly static and mostly beyond our control, the expense side is much more flexible and allows for considerable control. Small steps like driving an older vehicle an extra 5 years, cutting out one vacation a year or doing more of your own home maintenance can all have a positive impact on the bottom line.
This is not intended to be comprehensive - just some other factors that may have been overlooked in the preceding deliberations.

Hi Dex,
For your convenience, I’ll repeat them here. I did 12 simulations in about 5 minutes with a $13K drawdown schedule. I did 6 cases for a 185K initial portfolio value. My baseline was a 7% average annual return with parametric standard deviations of 10%, 14%, and 18%. I repeated the same standard deviations for a 6% annual portfolio return rate. Portfolio survival rates were atrocious.

In the 185K value - the total value should have been the 51,888 and 185,000 plus some contingency amount at least - you pick the number.
The amount should never be 185K alone and the 51K should be in near cash - treasury bond ladder or a short term bond fund.
So, it doesn't look as if the simulator was modeling what I wrote. Same for the $350K example there needs to be the 'near cash' aspect also.
"$12,972 to be funded
$51,888 in near cash for 4 years of expenses - this is ride out market (bond & stock downturns.
$185,143 earning 7% to get to 12,972/year expenses to be funded
$100,000 to 150,000 contingency money, if wanted, earning ???
$337,031 to 357,031 total excluding house"

i tried JOMIX at Fidelity and got told I needed a min of 25k to invest. at the moment, i only have 15k. if someone wants to lend me 10k, ha ha, i'll see if the order goes through, ha ha. i tried JOMMX and was told it wasn't available

Argent Capital Management News & Commentaries
/Favorable Odds
Weekly Investor February-17-2015/
Danaher Corp. (DHR), headquartered in Washington, D.C., is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of medical, industrial, professional and consumer products. DHR was founded in 1969 and was previously known as DMG, Inc., but later took the Danaher name in 1984. The company produces a broad range of products including electronic calibration equipment, retail/commercial petroleum products such as underground storage tank leak detection systems, high-precision optical systems for the analysis of microstructures and aerospace defense articles, among others. DHR’s primary product lines are sold in North America, Europe and Asia.
DHR has a long history of delivering consistent earnings growth through continual development of its own businesses and by acquiring businesses that are fast growing and have high returns. Over the years, the company’s management team has demonstrated skill and discipline in selecting and integrating its many purchases. A more recent purchase included an expansion in the water treatment industry. This industry has strong growth potential and now DHR is a key beneficiary of this trend. Economic uncertainties have depressed DHR’s multiples, and as a result we have been presented with this buying opportunity. In the long-term, we expect DHR to outperform its peers and the market.
http://argentcapital.com/weeklyinvestor/weekly-investor-february-17-2015/
Recent: This newsletter presents selected recommendations from portfolio managers of Argent Capital Management LLC
Electronic Arts, Inc. 5.7%
Google, Inc. 5.0%
Skyworks Solutions 4.4%
Teva Pharmaceutical 4.3%
CBS Corporation 3.9%
Broadcom Corporation 3.9%
Danaher Corp. 3.8%
ON Semiconductors 3.7%
Post Holdings, Inc. 3.6%
Lincoln National 3.6%
Opinions reflect the portfolio manager’s judgment on the date above and are subject to change. A list of stocks recommended by Argent is available upon request. You should not assume that these recommendations are or will be profitable. In the course of it’s business, Argent’s client accounts may be buying and selling these stocks.
http://argentcapital.com/weeklyinvestor/weekly-investor-may-18-2015/