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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    @catch22: I went onto stockcharts.com to put in the data that Charles presented on the other thread, SPY from Nov 1, 2007-June 30, 2014. You titled this thread "the quick method". Messing with that slider bar did not seem like "the quick method" to me, but eventually I got it!
    But it gave me the result in terms of cumulative total return, and Charles presented his data in terms of annualized return. Is there something you need to click on stockcharts.com to get annualized total return instead?
    image
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    Howdy @rjb112
    You noted: "in that stockcharts.com, as you mentioned, cannot often easily accept any start and end date you wish......although apparently it is easy to get within 1, 2 or 3 days of your desired time frame."
    >>>At the 200day slider below the graph area, yes; one may "left click" and hold to move the entire 200 day time from to the left and move backwards in time, or; "left click" and hold only the left end of the slider and move left to travel backwards as far as a fund inception date may allow. NOTE: I have not checked to find whether there is a limit as to how far backwards in time that stockcharts allows.
    Also, as two examples: one may drag the left side of the 200 day slider to the left to 1256 days, which is about 5 years time.....or 2518 days which is about 10 years of a backward look. Another: is to leave the slider at the 1256 (5 year period) just mentioned and then left click onto the slider and hold, then drag the slider around to different time frames of a 5 year period.
    At the bottom right corner of the graph, one will find the corner filled with several small diagonal lines. Holding the mouse here will allow you to shrink the size of the graph as you move towards the upper, left corner. I have to do this; as I can't fit the entire image with dates at the top and still see all of the other info a the bottom of the area where the slider and tickers symbols are placed.
    Lastly, I find that getting close (within a few days of data) is more than accurate for my needs. I also like to use the "red and green" graphing icon at the far left edge, after having viewed the line chart. Especially when viewing up to ten symbols. Additionally, when a line chart is displayed, the mouse pointer may be placed upon the line to find a date and dollar value represented by the graph.
    Ok, my eyes sting from painting all day long and so pillow time for me soon.
    Catch
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    Howdy @rjb112 and @Charles, et al
    The recent thread regarding doom and gloom in September morphed into a "how in the heck do I find real and total return numbers for funds, etc."
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/43537/#Comment_43537
    Lastly, it is my understanding that Smartmoney.com includes all distributions for total return numbers. I have not used their site for this purpose.
    Catch
    @catch22: Thanks for starting this thread. I think the subject of finding accurate performance data for mutual funds is very important. I'm going to spend some time on the website you referenced and try to get a feel for its accuracy.
    I an still in the process of evaluating the website below as a tool to obtain performance data, but so far it seems like an amazing tool and super easy to use. Of course with any website/tool, such as the one you referenced and the one below, the key issue is whether or not it is accurate.
    http://longrundata.com/longrundata/index.php
    With regards to smartmoney.com and it including distributions for total return data: Morningstar does include distributions in their total return data. I am extremely impressed with the accuracy of Morningstar's data. The only thing I don't like about it is that the data they provide is limited.
    They provide calendar year data from 2004 thru present, but not prior to 2004.
    And they don't provide data for any begin and end date that you might be interested in.
    That's why I am so interested in the site you referenced, and the one I referenced as well. If they are accurate, we are in business. The site I referenced is more user friendly, in that stockcharts.com, as you mentioned, cannot often easily accept any start and end date you wish......although apparently it is easy to get within 1, 2 or 3 days of your desired time frame.
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    @VintageFreak.
    ...rolling returns over X years...
    What is highest X you think is of interest?
    10, 15...20?
    Let me know.
    Thanks, c
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    Using this rule an applying it today for the S&P 500 Index ... by my math ... If stocks are at a TTM P/E Ratio of 19.2 plus 2% for inflation (Both Trailing Numbers) then this puts the combined number at 21.2. With this, stocks would be about six percent above their fair value and puts the fair value number for the S&P 500 Index somewhere around 1880.
    Currently, M* is reporting stocks, in general, are about three percent overvalued.
    So, it seems this Rule of Thumb will be close to perhaps the real number if you were to accept M*'s number as the gospel.
    Old_Skeet
    @Old_Skeet : Just a bit of apples plus oranges in the mixture.
    Why? Because the number you report as the TTM P/E, 19.2, is for the S&P 500.
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
    The number you report for M*, 3% overvalued, is global stocks. It's for the universe of all stocks that M* analyzes, which is US plus foreign stocks. Foreign stocks currently generally have significantly lower P/E ratios than US stocks.
    Having said that, I owe you a debt of gratitude, because you are the one who 'turned me on to' both the WSJ location of their index P/E values, as well as M*'s fair market value graph
    http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
    So my friend, I can only say a big Thank You to you.
  • How ETFs Define 'Quality"
    Hi ibartman,
    I think the Morningstar article on hidden quality in dividend ETFs makes a lot of sense with some caveats. The author rightly points readers not just to dividend paying ETFs but ones that emphasize sustainable dividends as high dividends by themselves can be from junky low-quality companies. When I interviewed the folks at State Street about their quality mix ETFs they said that dividends were a hybrid factor of both quality and value. A high dividend yield indicates value as the lower the price goes on a stock the higher the yield on its existing dividend will be. Meanwhile a company that has the wherewithal to pay a consistent dividend can indicate quality.
    That said, not all quality companies are dividend payers and not all dividend payers are quality companies. So if you buy a dividend oriented quality ETF like QDF you will be leaving out those growth-oriented quality companies that choose to invest in R&D, debt reduction or share buybacks instead of paying dividends. Think of how many years Apple and Microsoft went without paying dividends yet had rock solid balance sheets and were high quality companies.
    As for finding an ETF that combines all of the FF factors, quality and dividends, I'm not sure on that. There is a way certainly to do it with two ETFs, but maybe not one. The new State Street quality mix ETFs combine value, low vol and quality but without dividends and without small caps, another FF factor. Perhaps more intriguing for you though might be the new "actively managed" or "enhanced" ETFs from iShares. The iShares Enhanced U.S. Large-Cap ETF (IELG) says it is managed with a focus on " quality,
    value and size factors." And its expense ratio is just 0.18%. Since it is actively managed, it wouldn't surprise me if its managers are looking at dividends. But combining it with a dividend ETF or the excellent VDIGX which you already own might work well. ishares.com/us/products/239529/ishares-enhanced-us-largecap-etf
    Check out State Streets SPDRS as well: https://spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=QWLD
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    What I really need is a website that calculates rolling returns over X years. How many times have we "waited" long enough for a fund to get a good 5 year record because we do not want to simply buy on 1 year numbers? Only to find 2 years later the 5 year number stinks, but then again becomes respectable 3 years later. It would be so nice to see rolling returns over X years for ever fund out there, for every month of existence taken 5 years out.
    And Catch. If you have "how to fix 1 ft x 1 ft hole in ceiling drywall by yourself" tips for me I would appreciate it. I can fix any electronics but water, dust, paint gives me the heebeejeebees.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Is Your 'Alternative' Fund A Ticking Time Bomb ?
    My "alternative" (sic) fund owns: Stocks, Bonds, Options, Derivatives (in various forms), Preferred Stocks, Debentures, Swaps....and that is quite enough because if I knew more I would be managing my own money.
    During the dot com boom did most people knew WTF their mutual funds were investing in? How about during the financial crisis? How about EVER? When it comes to most people they don't know what they are doing OR their day job is not managing money. Where were you Jaffe on 2000 or in 2007? Did you warn people about Tech stocks / Financial stocks? Now after a few people have come and written articles about how "alternative investments" are not what they are cracked up to me, you come and write a "me too" article? What a job. What a F****** job!
    Over the years I have learnt enough to know a certain word in the fund name means nothing. M* categorization sucks to boot regardless of whether the word "alternative" is in the name of the fund. I give you Legg Mason VALUE trust. VALUE? Purified Bovine Waste.
    To me, someone like Steve Romick is an "Alternative Fund Manager". Someone who invests with lower co-relation to S&P 500 just like "bonds" are supposed to do. Since I'm no 007 I go with Romick. I can say the same about John Deysher who ids 50% in cash. Or even Hussman, who I admit needs to look at "alternative" (pun intended) ways to hedge.
    Finally, he is taking a page out of MY book. Diversify manager risk away by owning multiple alternative funds? That's all you got Chuck? Remember, how investors should not own too many funds?
  • How ETFs Define 'Quality"
    Ted: Thank you for link. Here is info on publication and author.
    Barrons - How ETFs Define Quality
    By LEWIS BRAHAM, Aug. 30, 2014
    [Subscription Required]
    Comments to the following post included additional 'Quality' links:
    Jeremy Grantham/GMO Asset Class Performance Forecasts [rjb12]
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/45441/
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    There is an old saw, Rule of Thumb, about the P/E Ratio Rule of Twenty that says if inflation plus the price earnings ratio of stocks in general when combined are below 20 then stocks are undervalued. Using this rule an applying it today for the S&P 500 Index ... by my math ... If stocks are at a TTM P/E Ratio of 19.2 plus 2% for inflation (Both Trailing Numbers) then this puts the combined number at 21.2. With this, stocks would be about six percent above their fair value and puts the fair value number for the S&P 500 Index somewhere around 1880.
    Currently, M* is reporting stocks, in general, are about three percent overvalued.
    So, it seems this Rule of Thumb will be close to perhaps the real number if you were to accept M*'s number as the gospel.
    Old_Skeet
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    Howdy @rjb112 and @Charles, et al
    The recent thread regarding doom and gloom in September morphed into a "how in the heck do I find real and total return numbers for funds, etc."
    Several years ago I wandered from site to site in search of the "easy", for discovering total returns. I don't have enough time in my day now, to do math calculations and related; and continue to use Stockcharts.com to do all of the work for me. No subscription is required for this basic use. NOTE: newer funds may not be found for reference. I don't know what time frame is used by the site for inclusion.
    The link below is a reply to "rick" just two months ago about using Stockcharts.com. This link is to the entire thread, but you will find my reply to "rick" regarding Stockcharts, a tiny bit down the page. Use the "chart link" in the first reply to "rick" to take you to the Stockchart page; which is an active page that you may use.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/43537/#Comment_43537
    This link is a short video regarding Stockcharts and their inclusion of dividends in calculations. You may find something of value with this.
    http://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2014/01/how-can-i-plot-dividend-adjusted-data-and-unadjusted-data.html
    Lastly, it is my understanding that Smartmoney.com includes all distributions for total return numbers. I have not used their site for this purpose.
    Okay, I am away to finish walls and paint before the carpet folks arrive in a few days.
    Have a good one.....
    Catch
  • Five Religion Funds For Faith-Based Investors
    I'm surprised it didn't mention Matthew 25 MXXVX. That one has a pretty solid long term record.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation

    I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.

    In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
    I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
    Hi STB65: I've listened to several interviews of Robert Shiller, 'co-inventor' of the CAPE, this year. He says it doesn't work for market timing. Also, he says it has been above 20 for the past 20 years. Shiller's website has the CAPE for every month from current to the distant past. I'm looking at the bear market from 2000-2002. At no time did the CAPE get below 20, never came close to its long term historical average. Even in the Oct 2007-March 2009 mega bear, the CAPE was above 20 until October 2008, and was back above 20 by the end of 2009. Waiting for the CAPE to tell you when to buy could be a very tough wait.
    What did you mean by: "In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly"?
    I'm seeing it as a No Transaction Fee fund.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    @STB65, that was one thing that stood out when I researched these kind of funds. The assumption is when we do get the correction or worse all funds will drop but the recovery of these short term bond funds tends to be much faster than equities for the most part. Since these are relatively new I could only use the 2000 bear market as a example. Another view is that these do not go down as much as stock funds. If the SP drops 20% and the bond funds go down 10% then that is something. Of course cash would worker better but I'm not a timer or a predictor of actual tops and bottoms.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    After listening to the interview, I considered reducing my FAGIX and SPHIX holdings since they represented the majority of my high yield bond funds (my 403b is in Fido); but I checked the graph at M*, where they regained their return slope in about a year after 2008, so I am really conflicted. Therefore, I agree with AndyJ as to from what?
    I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.
    RSIVX, RPHYX seemed to have flattened out or declined, but FSAHX may have shown a gasp of life. My hopes that I could park my "cash" in short term bond funds are now muted (especially since I have 40 X as much in the first 2 and the latter was positive on
    Fri, but it's only one day.)
    In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
    I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    I don't have a favorite. M* seems the more reliable as far as their quotes go. A lot of sites don't even have YTD stats. They default to one year. Also depending on the site they will choose a different symbol for the SP index whether that makes much difference or not.
    @JohnChisum, What I like about M* in this case is that they tell you the actual index total return, as well as any fund symbol you want. SPY is not really the index, it's an S&P 500 index fund, etf version. There's tons of S&P 500 index funds and a few S&P 500 exchange traded funds, like SPY, IVV and VOO. They tend to have a bit of a tracking error, and also expenses that reduce their return. Sometimes the tracking error can make an index fund perform better than the index for a given time frame. The best index funds and most experienced indexers don't have much of a tracking error at all.
    M* gives you the total return of the index itself, as well as any index fund you put in.
    Below, SPY is up 9.68 YTD, as an S&P 500 exchange traded index fund.
    The index itself is up 9.89% YTD
    One reason SPY almost always trails the index is the way it is structured. It can't reinvest dividends the way a more typical S&P 500 index fund can, due to its structure as a unit investment trust.
    image
    the Bespoke data was way off the mark for all 3 index exchange traded funds that they provided data for, which is hard to understand. Makes me not have confidence in their data. I was just checking it on a whim, and was surprised what I found.
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPY:US
    PERFORMANCE FOR SPY
    1-Month +3.95% 1-Year +25.06%
    3-Month +4.67% 3-Year +20.49%
    Year To Date +9.68% 5-Year +16.75%
    Expense Ratio 0.09
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    FYI: The month of August is now behind us and September trading begins on Tuesday following Monday's Labor Day holiday. Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in August, quarter-to-date and year-to-date using our key ETF matrix. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/30/august-qtd-and-ytd-asset-class-performance.html?printerFriendly=true
    MFOers, it does not look to me like their data is accurate. And they show the date of their data, 8/30/2014
    image
    Below is a comparison of the YTD performance figures from Bespoke versus Morningstar. I trust the M* data
    image
  • Kopernik Global All-Cap
    @VintageFreak, here's a link to the M* article that gives a good amount of detail about David Iben. After reading the M* article I went to his website to find out more about the fund and enjoyed the commentary that I linked. I find most fund manager commentaries disappointing because they tend to tell you what made money and what lost money, but they don't often tell you what they actually think about the businesses they invest in and even less about how their view of the big picture impacts their investments. In this case I was pleased to find a commentary that told me far more about how Iben thinks and invests than the fact that his positions in Russia are detracting from his performance this year.
    news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=663563