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jlev, I think you may be right, and "wide moat" probably is a decent approximation of quality.I'm not sure why number matters? I was more wondering if "wide moat" approximates quality?
http://www.vaneck.com/funds/moat.aspxI'm not quite sure if it's the right comparison, but I use MOAT as a proxy for this concept
@Charles, how do you distinguish a bid-ask spread from a premium-discount to NAV?I like QUAL. Good concept. Great low fee. Volume still on light side, despite $500M AUM. So, use stops to help prevent getting stung by spread.
@dryflower, Morningstar just came out with an article on the subject.Well, as usual, I just shot my mouth off without worrying too much about the actual numbers, so when I looked into it, I was happy to see that I was correct.
Great resources from the Fed, LLJB. Thanks for posting that.
I think if you wanted you could use the historical information from the Fed to graph or create a table of what has historically happened to 10 Years when the Fed Funds rate changes, or pretty much any other comparison you'd want to do.
federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm
If you do that I'm sure lots of people, including myself would love to see the graph :)
The following link shows the history for the Fed's target for rates. To my surprise when rates have gone up historically they've gone up pretty quickly.
newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html
I agree with you Dex. The economy would have to be doing very well for that to happen. But we are talking bonds, not stocks. Yeah, the economy doing very well would be great for stocks, and I hope that's exactly what happens. And in the scenario you mention, "2.5 years to run it up to 3.75", bonds would tank big time. Certainly the U.S. Aggregate Bond Market Index. In that scenario, junk bonds probably do OK. And corporates much better than Treasuries.I'll call BS. I do not see rates at 3.75 by end of 2017.
I agree with this.
Lets say they start raising in June 2015. That would mean 2.5 years to run it up to 3.75. The economy would have to be doing very well for that to happen.
I agree with this.I'll call BS. I do not see rates at 3.75 by end of 2017.
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