Hi guys!
Some personal information to start. I live in PA, newly retired with pension and social security. Mrs. Pudd works at the Post Office. Our son, a college grad, has moved out and is working in his profession. So, it's just us and the Dukester.
The economy is booming in our neck of the woods. Everybody's working and spending from the looks of things. Now, to the good stuff:
cash - 30%
Asset Allocation
BTBFX
VWINX - 24% - done!
Large Caps
DSENX
PRBLX - 4%
FUSVX - 3%
PARWX - 2%
Sector
RAANX
FSPHX - 5% - done!
Mid Caps
PARMX
UMBMX - 2%
Bonds - will wait 'til rates rise further to add.
PONDX - 7% - done!
GIBLX
PTIAX
Overseas
FTIPX - 5.5%
FMIJX - 4%
GLFOX - 6.5%
Hot Money
FSRFX - will be sold before 2018.
FJSCX - 4% - will be sold but don't know when yet.
Those funds not marked with a percentage (%) have small holdings, as you can guess by now.
Again, this is a portfolio under construction due to a rollover to an IRA from a 401 account.
Must go now --- why? One word........leaves!
God bless
the Pudd

Here is the barometer report for week ending November 10th.
This week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 146 putting the 500 Index into fair value territory. The three best peforming sectors for the week were Real Estate (XLRE) +3.24%, Staples (XLP) +2.15% and Energy (XLE) +1.43%. However, the Index (SPY) closed down -0.21%. In addition, short interest dropped with the days to cover moving form 3.3 days to down to 2.5 days. From a technical score perspective there are no sectors with undervalued or oversold readings this week. For the last two weeks Staples (XLP) has been scored undervalued but has now moved into fair value range and was up 2.15% being the second best performer.
The equity weighting matrix indicates that Old_Skeet is currently overweight equities by +3% at this time within his portfolio. Generally, I usually raise my exposure to equities during the late fall and winter months and begin to lighten up (rebalance) come spring based upon a seasonal investment stretegy.
Additional Comment ... Monday, November 13th:
There is no spiff position currently engaged at this time. I am looking for a barometer reading of 156 range, or higher, before a spiff position (in the Index) is opened. With this, a good bit of energy within the technicals will need to be worked off before the Index becomes a spiff buy along with an improvement in the earnings feed. If retail sales disappoints this holiday season a fairly good size nearterm pullback could emerge. However, looking out in 2018 I'm thinking the bull continues to run. With this, and at this time, I will be a buyer of a nearterm pullback. For me, patience is warranted.
Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

@hank, I love the logic about PRWCX and I try to do something similar, mostly related to asset allocation decisions but also each fund to some degree. For example, I've owned PRNHX for a long time and at $21BN of assets its way beyond, and has been for quite a few years, what I think is reasonable even for a mid cap fund and certainly for the small cap fund its supposed to be. But it keeps putting up the returns and I keep holding, although I've taken all of my original investment and more out.
It has had the same manager since 2010 and the expense ratio is fine, but the conclusion I've drawn is they have a better process than most others and I'd guess the same for PRWCX, which I don't own. Capital appreciation has done well even with manager changes and I probably wouldn't keep more than a small amount of New Horizons if Ellenbogen left or retired, but T Rowe Price seems to have a good number of funds that seem to have very good processes in order to overcome the logical obstacles they face and I also think they manage succession planning very well.

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
Interfund lending by fund companies can help relieve liquidity pressures, but there is the potential for conflicts.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=6cQGWu2BAoXCmwGDlrLYAg&q=When+Funds+Lend+to+One+Another+Barron's&oq=When+Funds+Lend+to+One+Another+Barron's&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3846.9661.0.9988.12.11.0.0.0.0.203.1098.5j4j1.11.0....0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..1.10.1232.6..35i39k1j33i22i29i30k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.225.vafzhJgucB4

Question: Why has PRWCX been so successful over the past decade?
- Can’t be the manager, since it’s had (by my count) 3 different ones over that time. (And I’d guess it’s pretty much team managed anyhow).
- Can’t be its nimbleness & small size, because it isn’t.
- Can’t be its expense ratio of .70%. While competitive, that’s substantially higher than either DODBX or an index fund and lags rival OAKBX by only .10%.
- Can’t be its great market timing, because Giroux’s been talking nothing but caution for the past 5,000 points of the Dow.
- Can’t be its broadly diversified approach. The fund world is loaded with such balanced, hybrid, moderate allocation (or whatever other name one wishes to attach) type funds.
Don’t mean to be disagreeable (comes naturally) - but you can’t invest looking in the rear view mirror. I know the results have been impressive (and own the fund), but desire some logical compelling reason to think that that performance should continue.

DSEEX + PONDX 50-50 beats PRWCX ... except for this year, hmm.

I'll stick with my PRWCX, despite @davidmoran choosing PONDX and DSEEX. His recipe works, "but not THIS year." OK. But I look and see "class D" PONDX. I truly don't care which CLASS of shares it might be. Because, how many frikkin' classes of shares do you (anyone) NEED? Answer: one. I just won't mess with menus full of different share classes. "See ya later."
And DSEEX, I understand, is deliberately filled with swaps. Is that not by definition a "synthetic" bet? I'm touchy about that stuff, after watching "The Big Short" again, recently. Also, check out the short-position in cash in PONDX. (-127%. "Net" -48%.) No, thanks. I think an "Average Joe" like me, who "knows just enough to know better" ought to steer clear of such stuff.
@bee: despite an overall "hold" recommendation, I continue to add to my PNM, in small doses. In terms of P/E it is no longer the bargain it was when I first bought-in at $25.41, but a necessary, regulated electric utility which is embracing solar, in the US Southwest, looks like a good bet to me. And I just got back from a visit in the Tucson, AZ burbs, went up to Sedona, too. Fabulous sightseeing helicopter ride, there.
"The Big Short."
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/?ref_=nv_sr_1
Sedona:
http://www.gatewaytosedona.com/images/cathedral-rock-sedona-arizona/cathedral-rock-from-lower-loop-sedona.jpg

Huh? Something may be off or I am misreading the graphs.
From Magellan inception to mid-May '72, M* shows $10k going to ~$123k. ~12x.
Ted's span from then to fall '96 shows $10k going to ~$589k, for like 59x.
No?

Ted invested in a fund that used to grow faster, but had slowed down by the time he invested with relatively lackluster managers "Dick Habermann, PETER LYNCH, Morris Smith, and Jeff Vinik".
I could invest in a MMF and if I waited long enough I would "outperform" Johnson as well. Of course, and with apologies to Keynes, by then I'd be dead.
My point was that the managers Ted invested with weren't quite the best that Magellan had offered over its lifetime. Of course they were still outstanding, and Ted did quite well, both in his choice of fund and by staying with the fund a long time. Much longer than the Johnson era lasted, but also far shorter that it would take me with my MMF to get the same total return. Perhaps I should have put a smiley after my comment?

My interest in posting this thread:
At some point in life one may have to make a decision to simplify their investments for the benefit of lovingly clueless relatives.
Even Warren Buffet has had to face this question:

Buffett describes advice he has left in his will as to how the trustee should invest money Buffett is leaving for his wife. Here’s Buffett’s advice:
“My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10 percent of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 percent in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.)”

the-warren-buffett-guide-to-retirement-investing

@bee, Very prescient of you: U.S. toymaker Hasbro makes takeover approach for Mattel: WSJ

@msf
Sure, but by the time you invested, Magellan's best days were behind it. After Ned Johnson put up annual returns averaging 30.3% you had to make do with Lynch's measly 29.2% average performance.
Huh? Something may be off or I am misreading the graphs.
From Magellan inception to mid-May '72, M* shows $10k going to ~$123k. ~12x.
Ted's span from then to fall '96 shows $10k going to ~$589k, for like 59x.
No?

BNY Mellon - https://www.bnymellon.com/_global-assets/pdf/bny-mellon-funds/2017-estimated-capital-gain-information.pdf
Guggenheim - https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/distributions
Pimco - https://www.pimco.com/handlers/displaydocument.ashx?wd=Portfolio Statistics Previous Month End&fn=2017 PIMCO Funds Capital Gain Estimates.pdf&id=zE6WqsNEZWDsMx51NM3gOJfszAc2O4VrWGwALYJwnNKhYEvqaedxJLzNi4M0hSUcDqBBbln2ZUlI4w00R2nuJDJkrBSyZLyu3TiOvW32buOwaulEdGjizDsfTa3caF+lPem43X9igYH2J/RlxqJcjW/CYm2sMaVkopD6E39f19VQcyl6x4iNeLMLgD4tAS2w3xOqBT2k1TiOl5mbO9Dc4UsbIYPzZHywBl1O4KVj6mcyv6MSRPqOMTV7WO/LTMvGKUgag6ZPguAPoog8f8SfvfYiYpdUwTswQY9hNxBr3bGv60wqL+dbbCmsKyCH8i0j

If I could only hold 1fund, it would be a fund I don't own today, a TRP Target Date Retirement fund. If it is one fund to hold for 10-15 years in a portfolio of funds - PRWCX.

Which SINGLE fund? My PRWCX is my call, but let me also mention my MAPOX, for the quarterly dividends--- which is going to mean more and more to me, going forward. These hypothetical answers to the original question are due to a naturally prudent approach, assuming all monies end-up in ONE fund. If I were also granted just one choice to add a foreign element to the portfolio, it would be PRIDX. And I suppose I'd go 70% domestic and 30% foreign. (Right now, though, I'm only 11% in foreign equities.)
My current equity allocation:
LCV 20.41
LCG30.55
Smid-value 20.44
Smid growth 28.60
My current foreign equity funds: SFGIX and PRIDX.

@ MFO Members: For those of you who go back to the Fundalarm days , Roy Weitz ask me what was the single best investment I ever made ? The answer was simple and is still true today, Fidelity Magellan. I invested in Magellan in the spring of 1972 and cashed out in October of 1996. Thank you, Dick Habermann, PETER LYNCH, Morris Smith, and Jeff Vinik.

Sure, but by the time you invested, Magellan's best days were behind it. After Ned Johnson put up annual returns averaging 30.3% you had to make do with Lynch's measly 29.2% average performance.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/pdfs/newsltr08-2-4-3.pdf

Wow, 25 shares! When Met Life demutualized, I got 10 whole shares. So little that when they spun off Brighthouse Financial I would have gotten less than one share, so I was forced to accept cash in lieu.
I was notified about the shares when the demutualization occurred, and I was notified of the Brighthouse shares (well, cash) as well. So I'm a little surprised that you got no notifications. Perhaps the problem lies with your old insurer?
My MET shares were held in a trust (also via Computershare) that enabled me to buy and sell shares with no commission. The Brighthouse shares would have been held there also, had there been any shares to hold. These days, one can trade stocks for next to no commission, so I don't see much value in retaining the shares in the trust.
Be advised that the IRS has always asserted that your cost basis in the shares is zero. There is some disagreement across courts about this, but the IRS remains unmoved. https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2016/mar/basis-of-stock-in-insurance-demutualization.html
Given the fact that I'd owe taxes on 100% of the value, or could get a deduction on 100% of the value by donating them, I figure I'll donate this year, while I can still itemize. (If the tax "reform" legislation passes, then between loss of SILT deductions and higher standard deductions, I'll not likely itemize in 2018.)

If I was focused only on domestic and even if I wasn't I'd at least think hard about POAGX. I don't like nothing but the US but if I had to bet which funds of the ones I currently own that I'd still own 15 years from now that would be my bet.
I like the idea of go anywhere, do anything flexibility but there's just not many, if any, that I'd really trust with that. Since we wouldn't be able to know anything about the ups and downs along the way I wouldn't have a big issue with sticking to stocks and I'd probably go for something like Grandeur Peak's Global Opportunities or Global Stalwarts, neither of which I own.

Maybe its me, but I am an allocation guy when it come to paring down choices.
My H.S.A (@ Bruce Funds) will be BRUFX
My Roth IRA (@ TRP) will be PRWCX
My SD IRA (@Vanguard) will be VWINX or maybe even Global Wellesley, VGWIX
My Taxable account will be VTMFX
A 10-15 Year Trend Funds:
Health Care - PRHCX, VGHCX, FSMEX
Tech - PRGTX, FSITX,
Consumerism - FSRPX

@ MFO Members: For those of you who go back to the Fundalarm days , Roy Weitz ask me what was the single best investment I ever made ? The answer was simple and is still true today, Fidelity Magellan. I invested in Magellan in the spring of 1972 and cashed out in October of 1996. Thank you, Dick Habermann, PETER LYNCH, Morris Smith, and Jeff Vinik.
Regards,
Ted

FYI: It's wrong for people to think that they have to be wealthy to get rich investing in the stock market, famed buy-and-hold investor Ron Baron told CNBC in a Friday interview.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/billionaire-ron-baron-says-any-patient-investor-can-turn-5000-dollars-a-year-into-nearly-1-million-dollars.html
M*: Baron Family Of Funds:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/baron-capital-group/0C00001YPS/fund-list.aspx

It's not a bad choice but he dismissed a lot of possibilities without much consideration. It sounds like he started with the answer and needed to write a 300 word article (or whatever it is) to get there. If you've got 15 years then Schiller's CAPE ratio is pretty much the best predictor that's been found and that wouldn't really lead you to US stocks at this point.