+1 @Shostakovich

For those of you who like to follow the action in this never-ending train wreck:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225020-tracking-bruce-berkowitzs-fairholme-portfolio-q3-2018-update?isDirectRoadblock=false
The cars have changed but the casualties continue to rise.

@BenWP
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836487/000110465918063356/a18-36104_17497.htm
497 1 a18-36104_17497.htm 497
Summary Prospectus and
Prospectus Supplement
October 22, 2018
Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
Supplement dated October 22, 2018 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Summary Prospectuses and Prospectuses dated April 30, 2018
Global Discovery Portfolio
Global Insight Portfolio
(each, a "Fund")
On October 17, 2018, stockholders of each Fund approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization by and between each Fund and Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc., on behalf of its series Global Advantage Portfolio ("MSIF Global Advantage"), pursuant to which substantially all of the assets and liabilities of each Fund would be transferred to MSIF Global Advantage and stockholders of each Fund would become stockholders of MSIF Global Advantage, receiving shares of common stock of MSIF Global Advantage equal to the value of their holdings in each Fund (the "Reorganizations"). Each stockholder of each Fund will receive the Class of shares of MSIF Global Advantage that corresponds to the Class of shares of each Fund currently held by that stockholder. It is anticipated that the Reorganizations will be consummated on or about November 19, 2018. The Funds expects to cease offering shares of all Classes of the Funds at the close of business on or about November 14, 2018.
Please retain this supplement for future reference.
IFIGDGIREORGSUMPROSPT 10/18

As of November 20, my TDA Roth account no longer holds MGDPX, but it has MIGPX. They are both global funds and have the same managers, but I did not want another LCG global when I first bought. Still waiting for an explanation of this notation in my transactions record for 11/20: " MANDATORY - EXCHANGE." Morgan Stanley's web site offers no help. I can't find updated pricing for MGDPX anywhere. The fund did make its hefty distributions on 11/15. I remain mystified.

@MFO Members: From the Royce Website:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.roycefunds.com/news/2018/4Q18/royce-international-discovery-fund-to-close

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937718000265/trf-rmi497.htm
497 1 trf-rmi497.htm
The Royce Fund
Supplement to the Investment, Service, and Institutional Class Shares Prospectus Dated May 1, 2018
Royce International Discovery Fund
The Royce Fund’s Board of Trustees approved a plan of liquidation for Royce International Discovery Fund, to be effective on December 28, 2018. The Fund is being liquidated primarily because it has not attracted and maintained assets at a sufficient level for it to be viable. As of November 1, 2018, the Fund was no longer offering its shares for purchase and was not accepting any investments.
November 27, 2018
RMI-SUPP-CLOSE

FYI:
It was an unusually intemperate Tweet, even by Cliff Asness standards.
On Wednesday, the billionaire co-founder of AQR — a quantitative investment firm managing $226 billion — and Twitter raconteur engaged in heated argument on the social media platform with a user tweeting under the handle @Steinernomics.
“Asked and answered, you stupid fuck,” Asness wrote and retweeted an earlier comment, refuting a point made by @Steinernomics in the middle of a long thread.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1c00l346hfp6d/AQR-s-Cliff-Asness-Loses-His-Cool

@MIkeM: I'm thinking you just might be right. With this whipsaw market it looks like 3000 has slipped away. Still see an outside chance (10%).
Regards,
Ted :)

@MFO Members: If this is from 11/19, rather than 11/26, switch browser to Chrome.
Regards,
Ted

I think we're in agreement here. If one buys a "go anywhere" international fund that really does go anywhere, then one is delegating regional allocations. Then one should simply benchmark against a global ex-US index and not complain about the world regions it wanders into.
However, that's not the way many funds function. IMHO, the difference between a traditional balanced (60/40) fund and a moderate "allocation" fund is that the latter has a little more wiggle room to make tactical shifts. But it's still going to be meandering near that 60/40 "set point", and so should be benchmarked that way.
Likewise, if one picks an international fund that holds around 1/5 in EM, then one should keep that in mind when fleshing out one's portfolio. So long as the fund doesn't lose big relative to its set point allocation, then as you wrote, "that's fine".

FYI: Mike Wilson, the biggest equity bear on Wall Street whose prediction has proved prescient this year, has a similar outlook for 2019.
The chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 2,750, the same level he forecast for 2018. That’s about 3 percent above the index’s current level. With five weeks to go for the year, Wilson’s estimate is by far the closest of all estimates to coming true.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-26/analyst-who-nailed-2018-has-same-s-p-500-forecast-for-next-year?srnd=premium
His "On The Markets For November"
https://www.morganstanleyfa.com/public/projectfiles/onthemarkets.pdf

Interesting. DODFX (down 13%+ YTD) has cranked out better than 10% average annual returns over the past 10 years. And over that longer period ranks in the top 5% (5th percentile) of its peers according to Lipper. Gets back to what I said earlier about needing a long time horizon and a lot of patience to invest with these guys. I’d be loath to give up on it.

Junkster said:
"Very early January may set the tone on where to be in Bondland for 2019. Maybe the formerly crowded trades such as PTIAX and PIMIX will return to the fore?"
Junkster,
So you are hopeful that the Fed announces they will stop raising rates QUARTERLY after the late Dec-2018 hike? Seems to be 2 different schools of thought on that topic right now. I think the Fed is likely to continue raising rates all next year (3x or 4x in 2019). Asset bubbles will continue to "lose air." Its overdue.

Just the opposite. I would be ecstatic if the the Fed raised three or four times in 2019 and for several reasons. I personally don’t think they will but I never trade or invest on opinions, especially my own - just the action of the market. I rarely trade/invest in multi sector funds the ilk of PIMIX/PTIAX anyway. Just that they don’t seem to be overcrowded trades like they were going into this year.

The WSJ link did not work for me. This link includes at least a partial (full?) copy of the article....

All told, 90% of the 70 asset classes tracked by Deutsche Bank are posting negative total returns in dollar terms for the year through mid-November, the highest share since 1901. (The S&P 500 is up slightly in 2018 on a total-return basis.) Last year, just 1% of asset classes delivered negative returns.

https://dollarcollapse.com/short-everything-in-sight-market/

FYI: The failure of so many investment strategies is viewed by some as a warning of what could come following years of above-average returns.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-refuge-for-investors-as-2018-rout-sends-stocks-bonds-oil-lower-1543155033?mod=hp_lead_pos5

Let me try fine tuning VF's statement slightly. Instead of "YOU are supposed to know how much exposure you should have to the market", try: YOU are supposed to know how much exposure you should have to various markets.
If you invested 100% in a (relatively) well performing gold fund, its your problem for having picked the gold market instead of having invested in, say, a mediocre bank loan fund this year.
DODFX has roughly treaded water. If one buys into DODFX (this year or any time), one is choosing to invest around 1/5 in EM stock and the rest in developed market stock. No bonds, no gold, no pork bellies. YOU make that decision. Given what DODFX invests in, it continues to do okay relative to its market.
Foreign Large Blend YTD: -11.93%
Emerging Markets YTD: -15.80%
80/20 mix YTD: 80% x -11.93% + 20% x -15.80% = -12.70%
DODFX YTD: -13.64%

@VF: And why should they? 1 yr high $15.72 _ now $11.78
Derf

Junkster said:
"Very early January may set the tone on where to be in Bondland for 2019. Maybe the formerly crowded trades such as PTIAX and PIMIX will return to the fore?"
Junkster,
So you are hopeful that the Fed announces they will stop raising rates QUARTERLY after the late Dec-2018 hike? Seems to be 2 different schools of thought on that topic right now. I think the Fed is likely to continue raising rates all next year (3x or 4x in 2019). Asset bubbles will continue to "lose air." Its overdue.

Current Morningstar rating of the 6 Dodge&Cox funds show 4 funds with a 5 Star rating and 2 funds with a 4 Star rating. Not too many fund companies with multiple funds can beat that.

I think their “gross” underperformance in ‘08 was likely a one-time occurrence. But, can’t say for certain. However, D&C’s funds will normally give you a rougher ride for sure. Not for the “queasy”.
Long term (10+ year out) if one has a lot of patience they’re a hard act to beat IMHO. A lot of that is due to their very competitive ERs. Not many investors today possess that degree of patience. Actually, now in my 70s, I don’t possess that degree of patience either. I continue to hold slices of DODBX, DODIX and DODLX, but now avoid their equity funds.

@Mark is correct. D&C was a train-wreck during the late ‘07 to early ‘09 market collapse. One of the worst performers across all their equity funds. Some of their funds lost more than 50% during that 2-3 year period. Their balanced fund, DODBX, held up better, but also was hammered relative to peers. Reading their commentaries back than, D&C management blamed unanticipated and unusual government intervention during the crisis, in part, for their poor performance.
I’m sorry I can’t remember exactly what transpired, but believe it had to do with the government and courts’ failures to hold accountable issuers of (defunct) obligations D&C held. D&C got stung good on some of that paper. I believe they contested it in court to no avail.
I stuck with them, shifting more and more into their most beaten-up funds as markets crumbled. At the end of the mess I had 100% in DODWX, which bounced nicely in ‘09.
Personally, I don’t understand or pay much attention to moving averages. But I do believe in spreading risk around. That means D&C is but one of several houses I entrust my life savings to. I’ve always considered them a bit more aggressive than the average fund manager in their equity and balanced funds. So you need to be prepared to take a little bigger hit in down markets.
You can read about the 2008 misery in the linked Dodge & Cox Annual Report, dated December 31, 2008: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/29440/000119312509037454/dncsr.htm
In the report, reference is made to their failure to foresee “the likelihood of government interventions” in the crisis as one cause of their poor performance.