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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    @expatsp , thank you for sharing your learnings. I also bought the fund at inception but had a much shorter leash. I don't remember the exact timing, but I believe I sold it after a couple years.
    Berkowitz was heralded as a great fund manager being able to run a focused fund given his success early on with FAIRX. But as Charles points out, that fund was actually very well diversified by having the bulk (and if memory serves, close to 30-50%) of his money in BRK and LUK. When he relied on his own "value" stock picks, he chose nothing but value traps. So in retrospect, his only genius was riding the coattails of other well diversified, great stock picking masters.
    My leanings from owning FAAFX:
    - deep value managers are a huge gamble not worth taking.
    - managers with huge egos who can't adjust or admit mistakes are a huge gamble (I would lump Berkowitz and Hussman in that same category for non-adjustment).
    - If a fund has not kept up with peers or it's index over 3 years - find a better choice.
    - Don't worry about the fund turning around the minute you sell. Remember you re-invested with another option. Be confident you made your best decision at the time.
  • Josh Brown: What We’re Telling Clients About European Stocks

    What funds are you using for international exposure? Thanks.
    Like I said whatever is available in my retirement accounts. I only do such ANALysis in my tax deferred accounts. My core is Vanguard 500 Index which happens to be in all my 401ks and I add international exposure at the border based on quality of fund available to me.
    In one 401k have Europacific growth. In another I have a smattering of PASDX and MALOX. At TRP I am using some TRRLX. At Scottrade I bought more OAKGX and OAKIX. I also bought more MACSX and MAPIX.
    Not sure that helps. Basically I'm not married to any fund or manager who run traditional funds. In my taxable accounts, I just look once every quarter and decide where to send money. This I do to manage asset allocation. In my 401ks I'm not really doing asset allocation. You can say I'm doing trading. I have models I run that tell me how much to be invested in the markets. 0% - 100%
  • Alphabet And Amazon Bring Back Ghosts Of 1,000s Past
    @VF
    Yes, my largest equity MF, CFIMX, owns a large slug of AMZN and GOOG! ...and Davis were once "value" investors!
    I made comment on Weitz on another thread, likening him to Miller. Sorry, but I think Davis and Co might fit the same mould. Managers, you should stick with your style. People should decide if they want to invest and stay invested in you. Your style needs to stick. Hussman sucks but he is consistent.
    It is very important for me for my managers to have courage of their convictions. Changing definition of "value" to market your fund is sheer hypocrisy. Amazon has a profit margin of less than 2%. Biggest hypocrite, M* has fair value estimate of $1050. WTF? Compare with Walmart's numbers. COBYX owns Walmart. Another consistent fund PVFIX. So are CGMFX and FAIRX. They are investing exactly how they say they will and what I expect.
    CFIMX has no business owning Amazon. FCNTX is supposed to be contrarian. HTF is Amazon contrarian? I don't get why people don't just buy QQQ if they want to play high flying growth stocks. Or buy Profunds Leveraged fund.
  • Nuveen NWQ Japan Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1041673/000119312517184532/d394774d497.htm
    497 1 d394774d497.htm NUVEEN INVESTMENT TRUST II
    NUVEEN NWQ JAPAN FUND
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 26, 2017
    TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED MARCH 31, 2017
    Nuveen NWQ Japan Fund will be liquidated after the close of business on July 24, 2017.
    Effective June 19, 2017, the fund will stop accepting purchases from new investors and existing shareholders, except that defined contribution retirement plans that hold fund shares as of today may continue to purchase fund shares until July 17, 2017. Existing shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and capital gains distributions received from the fund. The fund reserves the right to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the fund’s liquidation. After the close of business on July 24, 2017, the fund will liquidate any remaining shareholder accounts and will send shareholders the proceeds of the liquidation.
    PLEASE KEEP THIS WITH YOUR PROSPECTUS
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    MGN-NWJP-0517P
    NUVEEN NWQ JAPAN FUND
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 26, 2017
    TO THE STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED MARCH 31, 2017
    Nuveen NWQ Japan Fund will be liquidated after the close of business on July 24, 2017.
    Effective June 19, 2017, the fund will stop accepting purchases from new investors and existing shareholders, except that defined contribution retirement plans that hold fund shares as of today may continue to purchase fund shares until July 17, 2017. Existing shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and capital gains distributions received from the fund. The fund reserves the right to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the fund’s liquidation. After the close of business on July 24, 2017, the fund will liquidate any remaining shareholder accounts and will send shareholders the proceeds of the liquidation.
    PLEASE KEEP THIS WITH YOUR STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Weitz's Research Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1257927/000089180417000422/wz71390-497.htm
    497 1 wz71390-497.htm RESEARCH FUND
    WEITZ FUNDS
    (the “Trust”)
    Research Fund (WRESX)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated May 26, 2017
    to the
    Summary Prospectus, the Statutory Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
    each dated December 16, 2016
    Proposed Liquidation and Termination of the Fund
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has recently approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination relating to the Fund pursuant to which the Fund would cease operations and would be liquidated on or about June 30, 2017. The Board considered the recommendation of Weitz Investment Management, Inc. (“Weitz Investment”), the investment adviser to the Fund, to liquidate the Fund based upon the Fund’s current small asset size and small shareholder base. After careful consideration of the proposal of Weitz Investment to liquidate the Fund, the Board concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate the Fund and cease its operations.
    Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund, redeem their shares, or exchange their shares for shares of any of the other Weitz Funds offered by the Trust until the effective date of the liquidation.
    It is currently anticipated that the Fund will liquidate and cease operations effective as of the close of business on June 30, 2017. Any shareholders of record holding shares of the Fund on that date will receive a check representing the total net asset value of their proceeds held in the Fund as a final liquidating distribution as of that date.
    In connection with carrying out the liquidation, it is expected that in advance of the liquidation date the Fund will depart from its stated investment objective and strategies in order to increase its cash holdings in preparation for effectuating its liquidation.
    For shareholders holding their shares in taxable accounts, the liquidation may result in a taxable event. Shareholders should consult their tax advisers regarding the tax treatment of their shares in the Fund resulting from the liquidation.
    Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    @expatsp
    Yeah... had about 6 GREAT years of tax loss carryover... followed by @5 years of not so great capital gains in my brokerage account!
  • Mutual Fund MaxDD Calculations: How to Ying your Portfolio's Yang (@David_Snowball)
    @LLJB,
    Thanks, nice article. The ETFreplay site (mentioned in the article) allows users to backtest 5 etf for free.
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    wow, sorry to read all this; even Heebner has now done better 10/5/3/1/ytd
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    @expatsp.
    Lucy recently woke me up from my sleep in the pumpkin patch and walked me into shelter. I've sold-out of FAAFX, which I first bought in 2011.
    The experience is marked by much downside interrupted by very few upward periods.
    Six years is not really a long time, but it sure feels like it with this fund! This allocation fund has existed entirely in a bull market.
    The table below shows the sad numbers since inception through April (click on image to enlarge):
    image
    So far in May, FAAFX is down another 10%.
    The firm has never touted "The Fairholme Effect" on performance charts for FAAFX.
    DODBX, which I have owned since 2003, is now my longest holding.
    Of the many fund investing mistakes I've made, including WBMIX and AQRIX, invariably because of misguided expectations, I think FAAFX is the most disappointing.
    Expectations for the fund were built-on my favorable experience with FAIRX in 2000's, which I held from about 2002 through 2011.
    But the two decades (or the two funds for that matter) don't compare. I examined them back in 2013 with Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) – What a Difference a Decade Makes, but I do not think it's improved much in the four years since, as evidenced in M*: Liquidity Risk Increases At Fairholme.
    Which helps explain my disappointment. But four years ago, I wrote:
    Yet, if I had to bet on one fund manager to deliver superior absolute returns over the long run, it would be Bruce Berkowitz. But many of us have come to learn, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride. Like some other deep value money managers, he may simply look beyond risk definitions as defined by modern portfolio theory…something fans of Fairholme may need to do also.
    Good grief!
    If I remember, Mr. Berkowitz stated during a Consuelo Mack interview on the eve of Trump's election that he can see light at end of tunnel ... and for a short time, it looked like maybe he did. But since about February, FAAFX is down another 20%, yet again.
    Each quarter FAAFX reflects an ever increasing focus on extremely distressed, speculative, and illiquid securities.
    Remember MBIA?
    Remember St Joe?
    Today, its Fannie/Freddie and SHLD.
    Mr. Berkowitz hitched his wagon to Mr. Lambert and Mr. Mnuchin. I believe the latter was on SHLD's board while heading Trump's campaign finance committee, before becoming Treasury Secretary.
    Has BB changed his stripes?
    For years, he was heavy BRK and LUK.
    The individuals behind all these entities are part of a billionaire's club: Lambert, Mnuchin, Buffet, and Cumming.
    FAAFX is currently at $183M AUM, down substantially, half owned by Mr. Berkowitz. Flagship FAIRX is at $2.3B, about one tenth of peak.
    Took me a while, as usual, but I'm joining kevindow, Sven, and others to be on sidelines going forward with Fairholme Capital Management, LLC.
    Yesterday, SHLD popped 30% initially after a good earnings report, suspect short squeeze in play, but closed up "just" 14%. FAIRX and FAAFX jumped over 3%. But it is little solace to long-term investors.
    This morning SHLD is down another 9%.
    Maybe it's still possible for these bets to pay off.
    Maybe it's just being part of what our friend Wes Gray calls "The Value Pain Train" and I've just fired god.
    Maybe these really are the only deep-value investments, the "best ideas" Fairholme can find in the current elevated market.
    But I don't think these are the investments that once earned Fairholme "Fund of the Decade" accolade or praise for being the next SEQUX (during its heyday).
    So, after some 14 years investing with Fairholme, I'm out of the pumpkin patch and back in the crowd.
    Hopefully, I've not disappointed you expatsp or other BB fans on the board. But if I have, my apologies. And if there are any friends still in FAAFX, I do hope the "Great Pumpkin" finally arrives.
  • No Quadruple Leveraged ETFs For You! MFO's Lewis Braham Was On Top Of This One
    FYI: Lewis Braham quoted Joe Saluzzi, a partner at institutional broker Themis Trading: “At some point, the SEC has to come in and say, ‘Enough is enough.’ This is a stock market, not a casino.”
    Looks like it did.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/no-quadruple-leveraged-etfs-for-you-1495806218
  • Josh Brown: What We’re Telling Clients About European Stocks
    SFGIX. PRIDX. Down to 10% foreign equities. Letting them ride. I'm 36% in bonds of all types these days. I'm not looking to reduce that proportion which is already in bonds. Pretty happy with performance. PRIDX is almost evenly-split between Europe and Asia. SFGIX is 17% Latin America, 5% Emerging Europe, 6% Africa-Middle East and 72% Asia.
  • The Fees And The Darkness: Calpers Doesn't Exacterly Know
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
    The Department of Labor announced on Monday that its much-anticipated fiduciary rule -- or at least the lion’s share of its provisions -- would go into effect on June 9. In a nutshell, the rule prohibits brokers from taking money from mutual funds they recommend to clients unless they disclose those payments to their clients.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-05-25/calpers-shows-need-for-disclosures-like-fiduciary-rule
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack: Scroll To Above
    FYI: (I will link episode as soon as it becomes available, early Saturday morning.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    May 25
    Just about everywhere you look, America is awash in debt. U.S. households recently set a new record of indebtedness, $12.7 trillion, more than they owed at the height of the credit bubble in 2008
    But context is everything. As last week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Cornerstone Macro’s top ranked economist, Nancy Lazar told us, consumer debt is down significantly relative to disposable personal income at 88% of income vs. 115% in 2008, and savings rates are up.
    Corporate debt is another story. It too has been growing significantly in recent years, but unlike more thrifty consumers, it is accelerating at a faster rate than revenues.
    Corporate debt is more than 90% of revenues, a record during an expansion. And despite historically low interest rates, corporate interest expense is barely off its all- time high.
    What about government debt? In 2016 total U.S. national debt was estimated at $22.5 trillion. The federal government accounted for the lion’s share, about $19.5 trillion. States had a little over $1 trillion and local governments nearly $2 trillion in debt. Again, context is everything. The last 10 years have seen federal debt skyrocket from about 60% of GDP in 2005 to over 100% of GDP, while state debt has held steady at 6%, and local government indebtedness has increased slightly, to a little over 10%.
    There are always outliers. One of the biggest is in the municipal bond market. The largest issuer of tax free muni bonds by far is the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
    With over $70 billion in bond obligations and $50 billion in unfunded pensions, Puerto Rico cannot meet its obligations and has gone to bankruptcy court. The outcome is yet to be determined.
    This week’s WEALTHTRACK guests each manage several top rated mutual funds, investing in multiple types of bonds using different strategies. They also work together on the Fixed Income Team at Thornburg Investment Management. Thornburg is a WEALTHTRACK sponsor but their collective performance speaks for itself.
    Jeff Klingelhofer is a portfolio manager on several Thornburg funds including its 5-star rated, Thornburg Limited Term Income Fund which uses a laddered strategy, investing in bonds with staggered maturities. He also manages the 4-star rated Thornburg Strategic Income Fund, which has a flexible mandate to invest anywhere in the world and in any kind of income producing security.
    Our other guest is Nicholos Venditti, portfolio manager for several municipal bonds funds including the 5-star Thornburg Limited Term Municipal Fund, again using a laddered portfolio, and the 4-star Thornburg Strategic Municipal Income Fund which also has a broad, flexible approach.
    We will discuss the state of the fixed income markets as a whole and the condition of different sectors specifically, as well as where they are investing and what they are avoiding. We will also get their very strong views on why the bond market does not lend itself to passive index investing. Yes, they are defending their profession but they also point out some key differences between stocks and bonds.
    If you miss the show on television this week you can always catch it on our website. We also have an EXTRA report from another firm about why active is an advantage in bond investing. As always, we welcome your feedback. Click on the Contact Us link on our website, or connect with us on Facebook or Twitter.
    On this Memorial Day weekend, please take a moment to remember those who have lost their lives in military service to our country. They sacrificed so that we could celebrate a holiday in freedom and peace with our loved ones. Make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo
    Video Clip:

    utm_term=0_bf662fd9c0-606dd543f6-71656893
    M* Snapshot THFIX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/thifx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot THFIX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/thifx
    THIFX Is Ranked #17 In The (S-T B) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/short-term-bond/thornburg-limited-term-income-fund/thifx
    M* Snapshot TSSAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TSSAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot TSSAX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tssax
    TSSAX Is Ranked #57 In THe (MNI) fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/muni-national-interm/thornburg-strategic-municipal-income-fd/tssax
  • Five Largest Stocks Account For Nearly Half Of 2017’s Gains
    I am holding SV with RYSEX, as I am not smart enough to move in and out of asset classes!
    My stupid principles keep me away from companies like WF, and serial fund creators like Royce, while they have refrained of doing this off late. Still they are owned by Legg Mason.
    If I ever feel like investing in dedicated small cap value fund, I'll probably go with big names like Fido, Vanguard, TRP. Bridgeway small and micro may be as well.
  • Josh Brown: What We’re Telling Clients About European Stocks
    Around half of SP500 earnings are overseas-related
    That is one of the reason why Warren Buffet recommends low cost S&P 500 index funds for most folks.
  • Abby Joseph Cohen: Fixed Income Headed For Trouble
    The jobs that command the highest wages are in STEM – science, technology, engineering and math professions. STEM workers are earning an average of $100,000 annually, twice as much as the national average of $45,000 to $50,000 a year, Cohen said.
    If that is the case, why is there not more Americans getting college degrees in STEM and the positions are often filled with foreign workers?
  • Mutual Fund MaxDD Calculations: How to Ying your Portfolio's Yang (@David_Snowball)
    I like your thoughts on "portfolio insurance"! The key to finding adequate investment vehicles, IMHO, to truly satisfy this requirement is COST! Some are fortunate to have access to the G Fund inside the TSP. G Fund price only moves in one direction...UP! This satisfies my requirement for portfolio protection for pennies on the dollar! @15% of my investment portfolio.
  • Five Largest Stocks Account For Nearly Half Of 2017’s Gains
    It would be very cool to see what CAPE held and when wrt being in and out of those 5
  • Five Largest Stocks Account For Nearly Half Of 2017’s Gains
    I'm more interested right now in timing overweighting small value. Using PVFIX as my barometer. If even PVFIX is going down, I'm not touching any other SV. While I will admit, like I've said before, small+energy is actually hitting PVFIX hard.
    If it is one thing I've learnt it is to be patient. I did do some movement around S&P 500 in my IRAs. Overweighted international switching some money to target funds. Eliminated Mid Cap Value, and overweighted growth with TRP Inst LG Growth (symbol escapes me).
    I have "Jennison Private Account" or some such fund. Thinking might be close to HACAX, but I don't like investing in funds without ticker.
    In an IRA I'm overweighting using TRBCX. I still have some money in cash because my ANALysis says Mid/Small is rolling over. So not fully invested.
    PS - 275 Pound New York ....WTF? Mail Chauvinist Pig OverTheHill (MCPO)? I really need to understand your Nick...
  • Five Largest Stocks Account For Nearly Half Of 2017’s Gains
    FYI: The market has seemed pretty top-heavy lately. We think the concerns around weak breadth have been a little bit overstated, though, as we mentioned in our Chart of the Day yesterday. But it’s still worth asking the question: how much of the market’s gain is attributable to the largest stocks? Below we show three series. The light blue line is returns for the S&P 500 YTD. In the dark blue line, we strip out the performance contribution of the five largest stocks in the S&P 500: Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL). As shown, while the overall index is up almost 8% so far in 2017, it’s up only 4.6% if you strip out the five largest stocks. In the red series below we show the spread between the two, in other words, the cumulative performance contribution from those 5 stocks. At the start of the year, these five stocks accounted for 11.6% of the index’s market cap, so you’d expect a non-trivial percentage of gains to come from them. That share stands at about 13.7% today. Generating nearly half of the index’s gains with less than 15% of its market cap is an out-sized contribution and shows just how painful it can be in terms of relative performance if you’ve been underweight these mega-Tech behemoth
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/five-largest-stocks-account-for-nearly-half-of-2017s-gains/