VWINX Roger re rebalancing.
But anent your as-always complex 'hunch' of what I did, uh, I added $10k-growth totals for the same timeframe (starting sometime early in 1971, forget when) and divided by two. And then compared that with the same for the Vang.
I bet a nickel you can find something wrong with that too. Do as I did and doublecheck, find what is off about it, and report.
For real rigor I could've weighted them 40-60 instead of 50-50, but this was hasty M*-based envelope back, yeah.
+++ Actually, let me continue, since this sort of response gets tiresome; I will try and spell it out, and then you can tell what is off about it.
Since 10/1/71, the start of the Fido bond fund, it has grown $10k to $215,945. If I am reading the M* graph right.
Since then, FCNTX has grown $10k to $2,478,356. Ditto.
Looks to me as though if you had half your eggs in each, you would have grown to $1,347,151. Does that look right to you?
This is 50-50, so 60-40 would be different, yes.
Whereas if you put all your eggs in the Vanguard, your total would be $700,267.
Again if my math is right, the Fido total appears to be 1.92 x the Vanguard total. Si?
Less if 60-40.
Taxes, loads, rebalancing consequences, manager changes, and all else are overlooked, yes.
The Fido equity portion is cherrypicked for sure. I mean, FCNTX.
If I were really interested in pursuing this, I would pick Fidelity Trend or Fidelity fund or Magellan or some other hoary hoary Fido entity. Or DODGX, or CSENX, or SQUEX, or that Clipper thing, or (insert favorite ancient fund here). Wonder how that would go against Vanguard 40-60.
VWINX I suspect your math is a bit skewed. Just a hunch on the figures you used:
VWINX average return over life (since 7/1/1970):
9.81%FCNTX average return over life (since
5/17/1967):
12.39%FBNDX average return over life (since 8/6/1971):
6.94%To see how $10K did each way, my guess is that for VWINX, you took something like:
$10K x (1 + 0.0981) ^ 4
5 ~= $670K (4
5 years)
For Contra you may have used: $
5K x (1 + 0.1239) ^ 4
5 ~= $960K
For IG Bond you may have used: $
5K x (1 + 0.0694) ^ 4
5 ~= $100K
So the "
50/
50" starting amount grew to around $1.06M, not quite double $670K, but not that far off.
The problem with this back of the envelope calculation is that you've now got an investment that's 90%+ equity. You've not mirrored the asset allocation of VWINX. To do that, you'd need to rebalance periodically. To do that accurately, you'd need to know how much each fund returned each year, since bonds would outperform equities from time to time and you'd have to sell bonds, not equities to rebalance.
Nevertheless, since we're doing really crude calculations, we can simply assume that the returns each year are the same. So each year, the
50/
50 blend would return the average of the two returns: (12.39% + 6.94%) / 2 = 9.66
5%, or a
tad less than VWINX.
Don't forget to check on the loads. I believe all three of these funds had loads back in 1971.
VWINX Since 1971 VWINX is nearly doubled by 50-50 FCNTX and FBNDX (if my math is right). Not that most would have stomached that combo for >45y (heart attack, as JoeD says), but still.
VWINX VWINX highlighted here:
Long-Term Growing Income From An Open-End Mutual Fund: Is This Possible?
Criteria:
The Retirement Income withdrawal will be 4% of the beginning investment value with each successive year's withdrawal increasing by 3% to allow for inflation. Any dividends collected in excess of this will be accumulated in a money market account (MMA) until the year the mutual fund produces less in dividend income than is required and the difference between the next year's household income need and the dividend collected is taken from the MMF. I'm assuming the interest rate on the MMA is zero. If the collective cash reserve is not sufficient…or non-existent…and the dividend collected that year is not sufficient to meet household income need, then sufficient shares will be sold at the end of the year to provide the required cash. This is repeated each December at the end of the month (last trading day).
VWINX is the clear winner. Providing 25 years of inflation adjusted 4% annual distributions with a residual value over 89% greater than its beginning value.
long-term-growing-income-open-end-mutual-fund-possible
Merger of Janus Capital and Henderson Group AFAIK, nothing will happen to JSCVX or JNPSX (two different share classes of the same fund), except that Perkins Small Cap Value Fund will have "Janus Henderson" in its name:
"each Fund’s name will change to reflect “Janus Henderson” as part of the Fund’s name."
Prospectus supplement.
JNPSX, like D class shares of most Janus funds, is open, but just to investors who already have accounts directly with Janus. (Some funds, like Perkins Mid Cap Value are closed, so their D shares are also closed.)
VWINX VWINX has had 40 calendar years of positive returns and only 6 negative years. Its worst year by far was 2008 (-9.8%), which was top quintile of the class.
Since inception, VWINX has averaged 9.8% annual return. Quite impressive.
Looking at the bond portion (approx. 60% of portfolio), I see only 17% in govt bonds (I assume these are Treasuries), with Corporate bonds at 72% of the bond total. For some reason, I thought this fund held more Treasuries.
Effective duration 6.5 yrs
Effective maturity 9.5 yrs
Are there any concerns about VWINX's bonds being a drag in the next few years, as they are not really short-duration overall? Or better to side with the solid long-term return history of VWINX and just ride things out in this "conservative" vehicle?
I'd be extremely happy with 5% or 6% per annum, with no major heart attacks along the way. Just looking for devil's advocate here. WHY SHOULDN'T I BUY THIS FUND assuming those are my goals?
Any input appreciated.
-Joe
Oakseed Opportunity Fund to liquidate https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834417007124/fp0026108_497.htm497 1 fp0026108_497.htm
Oakseed Opportunity Fund
Investor Class (SEEDX)
Institutional Class (SEDEX)
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust
Supplement dated May 31, 2017, to the
Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2017.
Jackson Park Capital, LLC (the “Advisor”), the Fund’s advisor, has given notice of resignation as investment advisor of the Oakseed Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”), effective on or about June 30, 2017. The Board of Trustees of the Trust has therefore approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Fund which authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately the Fund is closed to all new investment.
The Fund will be liquidated on or about June 30, 2017 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. Shareholders redeeming Fund shares worth over $2
50,000 on or before the Liquidation Date may request redemptions by “in-kind” distributions of portfolio securities (instead of cash) from the Fund. Any shareholder wishing to redeem its Fund shares in kind must contact the Advisor at least 1
5 days prior to the Liquidation Date or date of redemption, as applicable. If a shareholder receives an in-kind distribution, the shareholder could incur brokerage or other charges in converting the securities to cash.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Advisor may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
Please contact the Fund at 1-888-446-4460 if you have any questions or need assistance.
Please file this Supplement with your records.
Comparing EFT Chart verses Mutual Fund Chart at M* Welcome.
@bee,
No dumb to it, just that the phrase 'percentage growth format' is probably misleading.
Think of watching Verizon stock price up and down over the last 1
5y, or indeed owning it and having divs etc. distributed to you every quarter or whatever; vs investing in it and having all divs reinvested and not touching it. Big big difference in the result.
But you know all that, I am sure.
Different people here strongly advocate the two different ways of doing this; some take their distributions, and others of us reinvest.
Why M* does not do $10k growth as an option for any entity is beyond me,
Comparing EFT Chart verses Mutual Fund Chart at M* @bee,
Unless I am missing your point, is it not that etf charts are nav or close, no reinvestment, while mfund $10k-growth charts show reinvestment of everything? Compares apple vs apple tree.
I always start w mfund chart (some SP
500 fund, say), and then add whatever I want to analyze. That's the (only) way to see $10k growth of CAPE or AOA or DVY compared w OAKBX and TWEIX, for example.
