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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
    . There may be hell to pay when Joe and Jodie 6-pack get their 401k statements at year’s end. There go 3-5% of his stalwart 38%.
    That's an excellent point. Approval ratings are always tied to stock/economic performance.
    And if unemployment spikes next year, then lookout below!
  • Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
    Yeah - I heard that last evening. Thought about posting it. You hear a lot about “Individual 1“ nowadays. Hard to tell what’s true. What’s real.
    I hope Janet Yellen has an unlisted number. That’s the last place she’d want to be. (Don’t answer the phone if it rings Janet!) Powell looks as if he’s workin on a big-time ulcer. Bet he’d rather be anywhere else.
    Imagine the reverberations among the world’s central banks, financial centers and in the currency markets if he should fire Powell or force his resignation. Gold would go bananas (tip).
    At least it would be a diversion from Russia collusion and Mueller issues for lil Don.
    More likely, I think, the Syria game is intended as a diversion away from the dismal stock market. While I’m at it - commodities and bonds haven’t exactly shone lately either. The big winners are folks like Fleckenstein (Maybe Dalio?) who have been shorting tech. Not a lot else working. There may be hell to pay when Joe and Jodie 6-pack get their 401k statements at year’s end. There go 3-5% of his stalwart 38.
  • Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
    FWIW, Mnuchin denies Trump wants to fire Powell. I don't believe Mnuchin here just because it sounded so very much like something Donnie would TRY to do.
    Even if he is not within his rights, Donnie could easily tweet Powell's "firing" shortly...... while blaming the Dems for it, somehow. Would it even be enforceable?
    At least it would be a diversion from Russia collusion and Mueller issues for lil Don. Lets hope for impeachment soon. Pence will be terrible, but less obnoxiously so.
    https://www.axios.com/jerome-powell-firing-fed-trump-private-discussions-c269417c-fcf9-4f28-ad60-eb35b7536493.html
  • PDI
    The discount arrived more quickly than I expected:
    As of Fri 12/21/2018 5:59 PM EST -- Last Actual Disc/Prem -0.77 %
    PDI will get included in my thinking as I complete my year-end portfolio update.....
    @expatsp Thanks for posting about this one....
  • Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
    I'm only the messenger of these reported items. Numerous search results are at the below link.
    Various sources search
  • An Income Fund’s Flexible Strategy Pays Dividends: (TIBAX)
    I look at the headline for this thread and then look at its results. -6.43 YTD and a paltry 3.40% annualized the past 5 years. No thanks! But so as not to sound contentious, I fully understand we all play this game from different comfort levels and varied goals. Another thing I have noticed are those who have pensions in retirement see things through an entirely different lens than those of us without a pension.
  • An Income Fund’s Flexible Strategy Pays Dividends: (TIBAX)
    FYI: he Thornburg Investment Income Builder fund was launched in late 2002 with a straightforward premise. “We believed that we were going to have an attractive dividend and grow it over time,” says Brian McMahon, one of the fund’s three co-managers, who took part in the launch.
    The $14 billion fund (ticker: TIBAX) has been able to stick to that goal by adjusting its allocation to stocks and bonds, in line with the dramatically shifting market conditions over the past 16 years. The fund has grown its dividend at an annual clip of about 4.5%, and added capital appreciation of 3.5% per annum on top of that. The portfolio’s recent trailing 12-month yield was 4.4%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-income-funds-flexible-strategy-pays-dividends-51545390000?refsec=income-investing
    M* Snapshot TIBAX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TIBAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot TIBAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tibax
    TIBAX Ranks #11 In The (WA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-allocation/thornburg-investment-income-builder-fund/tibax
  • Who Are Institutional Investors?
    Commercial banks only fit the category [of institutional investors] when they buy treasuries or other IG bonds for their balance sheet.
    So you too are disagreeing with the cited page. It says that "institutional investors ... buy and sell securities on behalf of their members." Not on their own behalf for their own balance sheets.
    Then there's the Financial Times definition that is more inclusive:
    A financial institution, such as a bank, pension fund, mutual fund and insurance company, that invests large amounts of money in securities, commodities and foreign exchange markets, on its own behalf or on the behalf of its customers.
    Only buy side qualifies as an investor. I know it's confusing.
    Yes it's confusing because (a) this is more a simple rule of thumb than an inviolate requirement and (b) because there's rarely a clean dichotomy between buy side and sell side. From a then (2013) SEC commissioner:
    Market participants are often described as either “buy-side” or “sell-side”. Buy-side firms, like asset managers, buy financial products and services; while sell-side firms, like broker-dealers and investment banks, create and sell those products and services. When viewed in these simple terms, institutional investors are generally considered to be on the buy-side. However, mutual fund and asset management companies can also act like sell-siders when they market their own pooled-vehicles, whether directly or through broker-dealers.
    One way of viewing institutional investors is any entity with enough heft and buying discretion to move markets. That's the view you expressed: "they have the ability to move the markets", and the view echoed in part of the cited article "Due to the size of their holdings, institutions exert the largest impact on the financial markets."
    Another way of viewing institutional investors is more structural, focusing on the form rather than the impact (even if the former is used as a proxy for the latter). Thus mutual funds like CVLEX are considered institutional investors, despite the reality that with $50M AUM invested in large cap equities such funds won't move markets even "if they do it in a hurry."
    Here's a little exercise: which of these is an institutional investor: traditional pension plan, defined contribution pension plan, individual retirement account?
    I'd like to think you'd call the first an institutional investor and the third not. What about the DC plan? Structurally, legally, it is a pension plan. Here's a CFA Institute piece classifying DC plans (section 2.2.1.1) under pension plans (section 2.2.1) which in turn fall under institutional investors (section 2.2).
    Yet a 401k plan has no discretion in allocating assets among the investments offered (which may include brokerage gateways, leaving the choice of investments wide open). In terms of market impact, it's very much like a thousand distinct IRAs. Form and heft but without discretion to move that heft in one motion, little impact.
    You offered one perspective. The cited article offered several, sometimes conflicting, perspectives. I'll wrap this up with a quote from an OECD paper:
    There is no simple definition of an “institutional investor”. The closest we get to a common characteristic is that institutional investors are not physical persons. Instead they are organised as legal entities.
    Institutional Investors as Owners: Who Are They and What Do They Do?
  • Ed Perks, Franklin Income Fund Manager, Outlook For 2019: (FKINX)
    FYI: You might expect a 70-year-old mutual fund with $74 billion in assets to be set in its ways.
    But the Franklin Income Fund’s holdings have gone through big changes in recent years. Ed Perks, the fund’s lead manager, described those shifts as well as the uncertain investing landscape of 2018 and what he sees ahead.
    The Franklin Income Fund FKINX, -0.93% FRIAX, -0.94% was launched in August 1948. The fund’s objective is to maximize income while also seeking opportunities for capital growth, with a diversified, actively managed portfolio of stocks, bonds and convertible securities.
    In an interview on Dec. 18, Perks said the fund was about evenly allocated between fixed-income and equity investments. At the beginning of 2018 the allocation was about 40% fixed income and 60% equities. Perks said that this year the fund’s management team has “softened its overall investment posture,” in order to “reduce total expected portfolio risk going forward.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-will-be-plenty-of-opportunity-for-investors-in-2019-says-manager-of-74-billion-franklin-income-fund-2018-12-21/print
    M* Snapshot FKINX:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FKINX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Lipper Snapshot FKINX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fkinx
    FKINX Is Rank #21 In The (30%-50%-E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-30-to-50-equity/franklin-income-fund/fkinx
  • PDI
    Howdy @expatsp
    We've not had PDI or PCI in our holdings; but took a curious look from a technical angle of this complex holding. The recent price action through Thursday showed continued strong downward pricing; and apparently final distributions have already taken place for the year on Dec. 12 and/or 14.
    We look at charts like this short term view for watching the moving average lines and which directions they are traveling. In particular the 50 day and its current trend. I've looked at 20 day too; for something we may have an interest in buy or sell.
    PDI, 6 months, daily pricing chart
    This 5 year is more of an overview of the longer term trend, just to look, eh?
    PDI, 5 years, daily pricing chart
    NOTE: The 5 year chart pricing suggests there is some correlation to the trend of U.S. equity; as with the 2015-16 period of down and sideways for equity.
    As to "income" oriented investments, as with this product; in spite of the hard equity crashes taking place now, even the U.S. treasury issues can not hold a rally into safety assets. I would not expect PCI to benefit from any flight to quality/safety.
    I can only offer the chart actions overviews above; for my 2 cents worth.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Global Stocks Extend Declines Amid U.S. Budget Standoff
    FYI: The pain across equity markets continued on Friday, with European and Asian stocks retreating in the wake of more losses on Wall Street and U.S. futures showing few signs of a rebound. Major currencies were calmer as bonds in Europe retreated.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged down at the open, with telecommunications shares leading declines as almost every sector fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for its fourth drop in six sessions as benchmarks slipped in Japan, China and Australia, though shares in Hong Kong rose. Futures for the S&P 500 fluctuated in a narrow range. West Texas crude was up on the day, but remained down almost 10 percent this week. Treasuries were steady but most European bonds fell ahead of the Christmas break. The dollar was stable against a basket of peers though weakened versus the pound and euro.
    Regards,
    Ted
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-slide-extends-to-asia-as-growth-fears-mount-11545372995
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-20/asian-stocks-face-mixed-start-after-u-s-slide-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    MarketWatch:
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-bear-market-nike-earnings/
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/stocks-reel-as-funds-seek-safe-harbors-idUSKCN1OK02P
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/us-futures-after-two-day-rout.html
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-dip-after-wall-streets-latest-rout-idUSKCN1OK0RQ
    Asia:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-continue-to-fall-on-recession-and-trade-war-fears-2018-12-20/print
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/bond-markets-yields-under-pressure-as-fed-hikes-rates.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/forex-markets-dollar-japanese-yen-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/oil-markets-opec-output-cuts-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/gold-markets-the-fed-dollar-in-focus.html
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Here's Why Stocks Have Sold Off So Steeply In December
    Like the great previous potus hoover stated - if u want a friend in Washington DC bring a dog-
    Buckle down recession coming... It's long overdue... Others right side probably hoping for double dip
    I would not be surprise if another 10 15%down from here.
    Building cash... Will Dca slowly into positions that you may like or wish could bought 5 yrs ago (like brk.b amz Google)
  • PDI
    https://etfdailynews.com/2018/12/20/high-yield-corporate-bonds-etf-trades-at-a-52-week-low/
    Hi expats... Did buy this for mom portfolios few months ago and did add a little last wk. I would probably add or buy very in Dca slowly over time.
    Everything do cheap now compared to 6 months ago. But again we dont know nor unable to predict a true ↘bottom
  • T shares Are Dead
    Weird headline. I don't know about you, but when I hear T shares I think about Janus, e.g. JSCVX ($2.9B), JATTX ($11B), etc.
    With only $145M total AUM in those newfangled "transaction" class shares (per article), I'd completely forgotten about them. Not to mention that I'd never pay a 2.5% load when fund companies are waiving A share loads left and right.
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    I'm looking at a few great companies that are starting to look like Christmas-eve shopping specials, prices marked down 30-40% from their recent highs.
    A couple days ago I renewed a position in Alibaba (BABA) that I sold out of earlier this year. It is 35% lower than it's top. Also added a little to FedEx (FDX) at a 40% drop from highs. I'm not super confident in it's current prospects but long term I think FDX may be a bargain at current price - fingers crossed. Apple and Amazon are on my radar. They have already dropped 24-29% respectively.
    These aren't big bets. Just my play-money allotment.
  • Retirees Thought GE Would Take Care Of Them. Then It Didn't
    Problem is majority of private industries and public pension are underfunded by at least 50%. This poses significant risk to meet the obligation to pay the retiree's pension. When the company undergo financial stress such as declining business (i.e. GE) and bankruptcy, the pension gets reduced substantially as in the case of General Motors. Many GM union workers received pennies on a dollar on their promised payout. I understand IBM is underfunded by 80%. The kicker is that this is perfectly legal. Guess paying big bonus to the top executives is more important than fulfilling their promises to the employees.
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    I chose 4 funds I'm a bit familiar with just for the heck of graph city going back to May, 2011 and to look at the lines as to what anyone may consider a fair or not so fair price from those days, through today.
    >>>So, the chart funds.....well, Fido health is a decent long time, fairly broad based fund. Fido balanced, well within the high end of returns for similar funds. Fido Growth has a decent long term record and represents a broad group of growth stuff. ITOT is a kinda SP500 with a dash of mid and sm cap U.S.
    >>>The chart starts with May, 2011 when Europe was still having monetary fits and the soon to come downgrade of U.S. gov't issued debt put a bang in the equity markets for a spell. Moving along, part of the 2015 and 2016 period were sideways, as reflected in the charting. And on to now.........
    A semi random mix of equity types and bonds with FBALX, all U.S. directed. Non-U.S. is a different critter not covered here.
    Go ahead, its okay; decide for yourself. Any of these in the chart undervalued since 6 years or so ago? Me? I'm just a profit pig and attempt to buy as low as I think I "see" and sell with what seems a reasonable profit.
    I'll leave the link open for viewing the tickers.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FSPHX,FBALX,FDGRX,ITOT&n=1922&O=011000
    OK........pillow time here.....good night.
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    In comparison, to Morningstar's valuation graph, Old_Skeet's market barometer has the S&P 500 Index at a reading of 180+ which marks it at extremely oversold on the barometer's scale by about 20%. For me to start buying equities at this point in time, in this falling market, I'd need to see a reversal in the barometer's reading. Currently, I've been just watching the action and building cash as my mutual funds are now making their year end distributions which I take in cash. I'd like to think we are working on a bottom; but, with rising interest rates it makes investing on margin more costly. And, with this, it seems, big money continues to deleverage as interest rates rise. In addition, short interest in the Index has been rising (not falling) as more and more investors are now shorting the Index.
    I've been reducing my allocation to equities by about 10% within my portfolio as interest rates continue to rise and have increased both my allocation to cash and to fixed income by about 5% each. I am pretty close in getting to my target allocation of 20% cash, 40% bonds and 40% stocks. Within equities I am favoring an overweight to the traditional defensive sectors plus a few others (real estate and telecom being two of them).
    Since, I am retired and my portfolio kicks off a good income stream I've elected to stay invested rather than selling out and lose the income stream plus I'd have a sizeable capital gains tax bill to pay as about 65% of my invested assets are in taxable accounts. My portfolio was built over time mostly through the organic growth of invested assets although I have done some trading as well.
    I have a fund (CTFAX) that has been buying stocks as the market pulls back. It is now in its 4th buy step. With each equity buy step that the fund makes increases the fund's equity allocation by about 5%. Currently, the fund is about 70% bonds and 30% equity. It is normally is about 90% bonds and 10% equity. As the market recovers and begins an upward move the fund then starts to sell down equites and load bonds. This fund has automated, for me, the special investment positions (spiffs) that I use to manually make. However, once the dust settles in my rebalance process I've been thinking of putting an equity spiff postion in play most likely in an equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund as there are currently, as I write, only 12% of the stocks in the 500 Index above their 50 day moving average. It seems few are looking at forward earnings as they continue to be relative strong with 2019 forward earnings estimates in the $170.00 range. At current valuation of 2507 / forward earnings of $170.00 = a forward P/E Ratio of 14.74. This equates to a forward earnings yield of about 6.8%. With this, it seems, to me, there is some good value to be had by being invested in equities.
    And, so-it-goes ... I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    An update: With the market closing today (12/20/18) I am finding the S&P 500 Index at a reading of 2467. According to CTFAX's buy matrix the fund has now reached its 5th equity buy step. This should put bonds at about 65% and equities at 35%. I am also finding that the Index is off its 52 week high by about 15%. Hello ... Plundge Protection Team time to take some action.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through November 2018
    Mairs & Power past 7 years through November ...
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