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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's Cover Story: The Surprising Threat To The American Economy
    Discussed this with a recently-retired client. We (our wives and us) simply don't buy clothes the way we used to, and probably will buy even less into retirement. New suits, no. Dress shirts, no. Dress shoes, no. New cars, no. Same goes for many other household things. We just are not shopping nearly as much. If that is true for much of the boomer generation, it helps to explain the pickle in which the big malls find themselves. Instead, the boomers are spending dollars on more meaningful things like travel, concerts, grandkids, volunteering, etc. It's not that we are pulling money out of the stock market (we are not, contrary to what some predictions were 10-15 years ago). We are simply changing our spending habits: spending less overall and for sure not spending as much at the malls. It goes to my comments on my most recent Retirement Blog.
  • WSGCX - Convertibles
    Fixed-income managers who value the mantra "do not lose money" will tell you that preferreds are horrendous values now, with prices much higher than the face value. Given that most preferreds have deep call features, it is hard to understand the logic in paying 15-35% premium for a preferred now, and have it called at face or perhaps at a small premium in the near future. Yes, the prices could continue to escalate, but a number of smart managers will tell you that if there is a bubble in the fixed-income markets, this is it. In a credit crunch, these will not be pretty, as another poster noted.
  • M*: 25 Funds Investors Are Dumping
    Keep in mind that much of this is RETAIL money, investors trying to follow whatever trend is hot. I would suggest that more than a few of the funds on this list could have banner years. MALOX is ahead of the S&P 500 ytd. TGBAX is up more than double the gain of VTABX. JPMorgan Core Bond is ahead of VBTLX. At some point, investors will abandon the current "hot" funds and sectors, and move on to something else that has caught the next trend.
    On the other hand, this is not to suggest that more than a few of the funds on this list are in serious trouble, if not on the brink of liquidation. How many times can a fund sustain outflows of more than 50% and survive? WASYX is a case in point. M* numbers are incorrect on it. Current assets are only about $230 million, down from about $1.5 billion just 3.5 years ago. It would appear this one is a goner, for a number of reasons. M* numbers must include privately-managed dollars as well as mutual fund assets for each fund. This being the case, the situation is even more dire for the mutual-fund only assets.
  • RIMIX/CNRYX City National Rochdale DEM fund
    I am looking for some thoughts, opinions and suggestions regarding RIMIX/CNRYX City National Rochdale DEM fund.
    I am considering this fund as a "complementary" position, not my major holding in EM.
    It has performed very well in its short life and its metrics are very good. BUT it invests a vast majority in Emerg. Asia (90%) with 43% in China and 24% in India (According to M*).
    Seems more like an "Asian" fund then DEM.
    This fund seems to defy the odds in every way. Every metric bests the Cat. Avg. including the UP and DOWNSIDE C/R. Its 3 and 5-year returns, top 1%.
    Any thoughts, ideas, suggestions and comments would be greatly appreciated!!
    FYI, I have read the analysis on MFO and a few comments but I can't find much else
    Thx, Matt
  • WSGCX - Convertibles
    LOL. I did the same thing. I'm sure you made typo and typed WSCGX.
    Will check out FISCX. Hopefully I don't make a F.I.S.T. out of things. :-D
    The reason to check out the Westwood fund is because is strikes me as being more risk averse. Of course it has not been through a bear market, but FISCX lost like 35% in the last one. A fund like this I'm not expecting to trade, but then a fund I don't expect to trade I cannot take that much loss.
    Maybe convertibles may not be for me.
  • WSGCX - Convertibles
    Hi @VintageFreak,
    Here is how I use my convertible secutities fund.
    I do not own the subject fund you are asking about; but, I do own a convertible securities fund FISCX and hold it in my hybrid income sleeve. It is mostly made up of bonds that have the option to convert to common stock at the bond holders choice usually at maturity or at an established date. In addition, the fund holds some convertible preferreds as well.
    Year-to-date the fund is up 11.5% and is the leading member of it's sleeve. Generally, I like to keep about 10% of the sleeve's money in convertibles and because other sleeve members usually hold some convertibles as well from time-to-time I have to sometimes throttle the weighting of FISCX to maintain a 10% convertible securities weighting within the sleeve.
    In addition, I strive to keep an overall portfolio weighting of about 5% in other assets as classified by Morningstar's Instant Xray of which convertibles securities fall.
    Perhaps, the above will be helpful if you are looking for ideas as how to incorporate a convertible securities fund within your portfolio. Perhaps not.
    When I Xrayed WSGCX it came up as a Wells Fargo fund. Why do you favor this fund? I'd run from anything with the name Wells Fargo on it as the bank's ticker symbol WFC in my book means "We Fleece Customers."
    My best to you ...
    Old_Skeet
  • David Snowball's June Commentary Is Now Available
    Funds in Registration seems to suggest that CBOE Vest S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats Target Income Fund will only offer load shares (it talks about A shares).
    As with other CBOE Vest funds, there will be four classes offered. The SEC filing contains two prospectuses, one for A and C shares, and one for Investor and Institutional class shares. Like the A shares, the initial ER for the investor class shares will be 1.20% after waivers with a $1K min, but will be sold with no load (Search for Investor class in the filing.)
  • VWINX
    @STB65,
    I have been (rightly or wrongly) persuaded by the solid arguments against the notional diversification rationales for foreign equity investing.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Encore Episode: Guest: Bill Miller, Manager, Miller Funds
    You'd think Consuelo could take a break from interviewing Bill Miller, this is turning into a yearly interview. Beat the S&P 15 years in a row and then the fund tanked hard. I couldn't see why anyone would invest in his funds now. Maybe a lot of the other fund managers just deny her request for an interview.
  • VWINX
    @STB65 and @bee,
    VMVFX is an global equity fund with no bond exposure. The Admiral share, VMNVX, has a very low expense ratio 0.17%. As bee pointed out, the risk profile is excellent for equity funds.
    As for income investors, there are many choices and risk that one needs to consider carefully.
  • Gett'in another wagon to haul the money; and what about those pesky bond yields, eh?
    Saturday morn'in to you,
    So, a tiny bit on the "tongue in cheek" side of life; although reality tends to sneak in when we're not paying attention, eh?
    Not too low on coffee this AM; but must get outside, as Michigan weather is glorious right now for most of the state, so a few quick notes or observations.
    So, not much to add about the equity sector, eh? Ya'll are watching what you choose to see for returns YTD for your particular holdings. Exceptions being the commodities areas which are not having as much fun right now. I noted a few days ago about the below "bold" and the so-called defensive area equities moving up more than some other equity sectors. These have not sold back to end the week (Friday, June 2 closing values).
    Sector summary
    Sector Change % down / up
    Energy -0.81%
    Basic Materials +0.14%
    Industrials +0.50%
    Cyclical Cons. Goods ... +0.27%
    Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods... +0.75%
    Financials +0.19%
    Healthcare +0.74%
    Technology +1.02%
    Telecommunications Ser... +0.17%
    Utilities +0.02%
    As to those pesky low bond yields. Well, we know lower yields = higher prices, and so a bit of money is being made here, too. The 10 year Treasury yield closed at 2.16% and the 30 year closed at 2.81% this week (list below, including shorter term yields and price moves for Friday, June 2.
    These 3 etf's and closing percentage up for the week ending Friday, June 2.
    LQD +0.8%
    IEF +0.7%
    EDV +2.7%
    Yields as of June 2.
    3 Month 0.95% +0.01 (1.06%)
    6 Month 1.03% +0.01 (0.98%)
    2 Year 1.29% +0.01 (0.78%)
    5 Year 1.72% 0.00 (0.00%)
    10 Year 2.16% -0.01 (-0.46%)
    30 Year 2.81% -0.02 (-0.71%)
    This link from Jan. 26, 2004 through June 2, 2017 is for "yield" not pricing. So, I'm sitting here looking at this chart and wondering if that 2 year yield path has any meaning relative to the 10 and 30 year yields, based upon prior years. Should this chart be showing me anything about short term rates and how they moved in early 2008 or any other periods that are of value today?
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST2Y,$UST10Y,$UST30Y&n=3334&O=011000
    What could be a meaningful summary of all the above? IF the equity players decide to "take the money and run"; one can imagine a move into the "safe havens", eh? Who is to say that such a move would not find the 10 year yield at .5% and the 30 year at 1.1%. These yields are still attractive relative to Japan and the Eurozone, yes?
    Global 10 year yields
    The marketplace is re-balancing our portfolio from a 60/40 equity/bond to a +70/30 and we're letting it ride; hoping to get out of the way if needed.
    Well, we still live in interesting times; don't you agree?
    Have a pleasant remainder.....
    Catch
  • VWINX
    @STB65,
    Are you suggesting VMVFX?
    WMVFX doesn't exist yet unless you are rolling it out here first on MFO.
    By the way I do like the risk reward profile of VMVFX. A fairly new fund from Wanguard...Good choice.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Encore Episode: Guest: Bill Miller, Manager, Miller Funds
    FYI: Bill Miller remains the only mutual fund manager in memory to beat the S&P 500 fifteen years in a row. He did it while he was managing Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust from 1991-2005. After a couple of episodes of serious underperformance in 2006-2008 and 2010-2011 Miller left the fund and in 2016 left Legg Mason to launch his own independent investment advisory firm, Miller Value Partners.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://wealthtrack.com/miller-hedge-fund-timing/?action=edit
    M* Snapshot LGOAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/lgoax/quote.html
    M* Snapshot LMCJX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/lmcjx/quote.html
  • VWINX
    fwiw, VWINX has barely kept up with PONDX the last couple of years. VWELX is outperformed by a 50-50 mix of PONDX and DSENX, a balanced combo I suggest to about anyone. Never gonna be in 401ks, though.
  • VWINX
    Posted today on The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors forum.
    Summary
    Some really good actively managed funds are being overshadowed in the current index fund craze.
    Vanguard Wellesley Income is a nearly 50-year old fund with a stellar track record of delivering shareholders strong returns while limiting downside risk.
    This fund may particularly appear to retirees given its 3% dividend yield and its history of limiting shareholder losses in down markets.
    With so much attention focused on the billions and billions of dollars flowing into passively managed index ETFs, you might be surprised to find that actively managed mutual funds still exist! But they do, although the reasons that this segment of the market is shrinking are easy to understand.
    For most funds, the cost of active management continues to be prohibitive. The average expense ratio for an actively management large cap mutual fund is around 1.25%. The average for an S&P 500 index fund? About 0.15%. That difference of over 100 basis points annually combined with the difficulty of trying to consistently pick outperformers over time has proven a steep hill to climb. Roughly 80% of active funds fail to match their benchmarks over time.
    But not all active funds should be kicked to the curb. Some funds have great long-term track records, low expenses and smartly managed portfolios. At Vanguard, one of their oldest funds is also one of their best.
    The Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (MUTF:VWINX) is a nearly 50-year old fund that maintains a balance of around 60-65% bonds and 35-40% stocks. The mix of investment grade bonds and large-cap stocks makes it an ideal choice for retirees, those planning for retirement or new investors right out of the gate.
    This is particularly intriguing for folks in or near retirement who may not have a great deal of time or resources in order to bounce back from a significant market decline.
    The S&P 500's biggest drawdowns occurred during the tech bubble and the financial crisis. In each of those situations, the index retreated around 45-50% off of its near-term highs. The Wellesley Fund on the other hand has only twice experienced a drop of 15% over its five decade history and one of those times wasn't even during the tech bubble.
    The other factor I look at is the fund's downside risk. How well does the fund protect investors when the market's winds start shifting? In Wellesley's case, pretty darn well.
    In almost every long-term period, the fund has been able to deliver category-matching returns when the bulls take hold, while reducing market losses by around one-third when things start heading south. The one exception has been in the last year when a number of the biggest tech growth names have provided market leadership.
    Digging into the fund, the fund's 0.22% expense ratio (0.15% if you qualify for the fund's Admiral shares) falls well below the Lipper category average of 0.81% and remains true to Vanguard's low-cost theme. Dividend seekers will enjoy the fund's 3.1% yield, a number that's boosted by its focus on corporate fixed income issues over government bonds (about 85% of the fund's bond holdings are corporate). The bond portion's 6.5 year duration is a little on the long side but provides a nice balance between yield and risk.
    One important note to make is concerning the fund's long-term average annual returns. Wellesley boasts a nearly 10% annual return over the life of the fund, but investors should be cautioned against expecting those returns going forward. Those returns have been boosted by one of the longest fixed income bull markets in history and an equity market that continues to hit record highs and has not posted a calendar year loss since the financial crisis. With stocks looking relatively expensive and interest rates looking to continue heading higher, shareholders may want to temper expectations in the near-term. Investors looking for a heavier equity allocation might want to consider the Vanguard Wellington Fund (MUTF:VWELX).
    Conclusion
    Wellesley Income continues to be one of Vanguard's shining stars. The fund remains a popular option in workplace retirement plans so savers who don't have access to good index fund options (or even if you do) might consider this as a core 401(k) holding.
    Even in the current era of index fund popularity, Vanguard Wellesley Income should be considered just as good a fund as you'll find in the marketplace today.
    [seekingalpha.com]
  • The S&P 500 Has Never Had A Down Year After a Start Like 2017: LPL Projected 2017 Close 2760 + 22.1%
    @LewisBraham. It is ANALysis. Of a different kind than mine, but still same category :-D
    As long as you don't marry it and have horrible children it is what determines portfolio returns in both up and down markets. The lowercase version NEVER worked for me.
    Thing is "intelligent" people always like the lowercase version. Like Hussman. What is the point in being "right" if the rest of the world thinks you are "wrong"? Market is going to listen to the "wrong" people who think from their behind. He can take his PhD and...do whatever with it. The joke is if the market turns, it is not as if he is going to provide returns like a 2x inverse S&P 500 fund. Once you realize that you know the fund is to be sold. In my profession, this is known as "design" vs "implementation" issue. His design is good, his implementation is bad.
    Every "hindsight" article in the media tells us investors buy and sell at the wrong time. This is because they don't know how to do "analysis", but they are also not doing "ANALysis" which is easier to do than a monkey throwing darts at internet stocks in the 90s and has bette probability of sucesss.
    So it does not matter that article is nonsense. Do enough people believe it, and will they act on it. That will determine if what the article says will come true. 1-day market crashes are rare, and no one can predict them. For every other market crash, there is enough time to get out before your portfolio gets destroyed. There is also enough time to get back in without screwing up your chances of retirement. How I wish I would have hung out with the right people when I was young. I think I would have had enough money to just sit home and trade and I would already be retired.
    I finally reached investment nirvana when I decided to manage my portfolio "actively" by "indexing" through ANALysis. We think too much.
  • Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund reorganization into T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund
    I bought mine through TRP, but it took a while as the online system was not set up to buy it. I tried to buy it on 5/25, but the purchase/exchange to obtain it never occurred. I tried again last week and was finally able to purchase it.
  • Cash May Prove Better Portfolio Protector Than Bonds
    Agree. It takes patience to hold cash. June's Fed meeting may tell whether another 25 basis point rate hike will take place.
  • Alternative Strategies, Multiple Managers
    FYI: Alternative strategy mutual funds, which focus on long/short, market neutral, option writing, merger arbitrage and other non-traditional strategies, have been swimming upstream lately. After taking in over $13 billion in 2015, the funds saw outflows of $4.7 billion in 2016, marking the worst showing for the group since 2005. It was the beginning of a pattern that has extended into this year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/alternative-strategies--multiple-managers-32991.html?print
    M* Snapshot MASFX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/masfx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot: MASFX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/masfx
    MASFX Is Unranked In The (MA) Fund Category By U. S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/multialternative/litman-gregory-masters-alt-strats-fund/masfx