Hi Catch 22,
Earlier this morning I read the article and then looked at my portfolio. I can make it on as little as a 4% return over inflation which is less than the 8.9% stated in the article. In addition, I looked through my stack of funds; and, I have two that bettered the 8.9% objective over a ten year period. They were FDSAX and SPECX. However, remember the 2007 and 2008 returns from the Great Recession that brought the average down will soon be coming off at the end of next year. My broker has the thinking that a balanced portfolio will return somewhere between 6% to 8% on average over the next ten year period depending on it's equity allocation and positioning. He is not looking for great things from bonds.
Since, January 1, 2009 as reported by my investment brokerage account statements my master portfolio's annual return including cash has averaged 9.65% through September 29, 2017. So, this beats my brokers outlook.
I think what the article was trying to establish is that market returns are not going to meat investor expectations.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

Let the market come to you, and get in the trend early.
If your timing system is based mainly on buying when a security's Slow Stochastic (5,1) goes below the 20 line and then crosses above 20, it may take some patience to find occurrences of this situation. Say you give up waiting for such a new trend and get in an established one that you had overlooked. If its Slow Stoch is already up to 80 or more, you've missed part of the upturn and are that much closer to the inevitable sell point. It would be better to spend the wait time figuring out how to better scan the universe of securities to find more candidates that work well with your system.
The following are Ed Seykota quotes:
"You have to notice trends early. If you wait and only participate in them when they've gone exponentially vertical, it's too late. Look for a fresh trend."
"The lizard ... just hangs around on the rock ... and waits and waits and waits ... for his pattern to show up ... and when a bug comes along, he makes his move, right from the gut, without thinking about it."

Hi @slick,
Thanks for opening the thread about a subject that should interest many. I am not going to comment on what I have been doing within my own portfolio for I feel I have written perhaps more than I should have about it in other threads. I do wish to complement you on having a plan and first looking at what you have through Xray before tweaking. I'm thinking to many investors tweak before they study what they have before they make changes in their positioning. Another thing is that you have some funds that have really performed well and that should help cover the lower producers. Interestingly, since I hold a good bit of cash (some of it in a CD ladder) which currently is about 15% of my overall portfolio (not counting what my mutual funds hold) I also hold about 15% of growth type assets. When I average the returns of the two together this bubbles at about what my average overall return has been for my mutual fund portfolio as a whole (A barbell type approach of sorts). This is one of my strategies in managing cash in a low interest rate environment. I use to open and close a number of spiff (special investment) positions with some of my cash but due to current low market volitality I have not done a spiff in sometime.
Do you know what your overall return is on what would be considered a master portfolio that would include all?
Again, the stated returns you have achieved in some of your fund positions are probally the envy of many.
Please keep posting about your concepts and ideas.
Old_Skeet

FYI: While some market analysts are anticipating real market returns of 1 percent or less over the next decade, investors in a recent survey by Boston-based Natixis are expecting more -- much more.
Respondents said that they would need returns 8.9 percent above inflation to meet their goals, 51 percent higher than the 5.9 percent real returns expectation of financial advisors surveyed by Natixis. When asked in 2016, respondents said that they would need 8.5 percent real annual returns.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/investors-need-8-9-percent-real-returns-from-their-portfolios-34967.html?print

@Crash: Thanks for posting. I too have been a bit disappointed in SIGIX (I added enough to get the I shares) but I like the management and will give them time. Unlike you, my largest positions are 5-7%, and Im 19% foreign. My largest funds are PRGTX, VDIGX and SMGIX, all in the 5-7% range. I do watch PNM as you know, its who I pay my electric bill to when I have one(solar panels are a good investment here since we get 300 or more days of sun here.) , and watch for info to send when its in the local paper, and I have a number of friends that recently retired from there. They are great corporate citizens in NM, granting funds to nonprofits every year.

I use all actively managed funds, apart from wife's 403b, in Vanguard's small-cap index fund, VSCIX (but administered through MassMutual: fees, fees, fees. Still, at least the fund's ER is miniscule. It seems like everywhere you look, employer-sponsored 401k and 403b just suck, due to not enough choices available, or only bad ones. VSCIX has done well for us, though.) My two anchors remain balanced funds, PRWCX--- over one-third of entire portf. And MAPOX, at 15.81% of portf. The Morningstar X-Ray shows me where I want to be. I'd be approx. 60/40 stocks/bonds, if it were not for the cash held by the fund managers, so the mix comes up as:
US equity 44%
Foreign equity: 11
Bonds of all sorts: 35
"other" 2
CASH: 8
PRWCX has been my best decision, since I started investing in 2002. I'm 63, just started taking SS. MAPOX is lagging its category THIS year, but I DO like the longer-term numbers. Also own small-cap MSCFX, in the same fund family. My (TRP) PRDSX is doing much better than MSCFX this year. But PRDSX is a "quant" fund.
I make my moves generally after the New Year, when all cap gains and distributions have been made. PRIDX is on fire, this year, so far. Glad I got into it, in early 2016.
PTIAX will be added, for the hefty monthly pay-outs, as soon as I can do it. And I'm still riding a single-stock position through DSPP: PNM. I took profit a little while ago. We're doing a bunch of traveling, this year and next. But I plan to continue dollar-cost-averaging into PNM again, and also want to add BMTC (Bryn Mawr Trust) through DSPP, too.
SFGIX has disappointed, but it's SUPPOSED to be rather conservatively run, in that riskier EM slot. It's Just 2.42% of portf. at this point.
When it comes to investing wisely, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.
"Horse To The Water." From "Concert For George:" 2002. Royal Albert Hall, 1 year after G. Harrison's death. Song co-written by George Harrison and his son, Dhani Harrison. Dhani appears stage-right to Sam(antha?) Brown, who's singing. Looks just like the old man, eh? ENJOY!

Hi @Tony
You noted: " However, I did not find a definition of "buy range" or "buy zone," or what the graphs' blue line is."
Agree.
I did enlarge (bottom right corner, 4 diagonal arrows) the graphic and found the blue line is relative strength vs SP500.
Another chart view (3 year), of which; you have already viewed in one fashion or another.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBB&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86325357921

ISTM that enhanced cash is a poorly understood or appreciated type of investment, both generally and especially in light of poor execution and implosion in 2008. See, e.g. Schwab Yield Plus).
As the old (2006) Northern Trust paper linked to above points out, you should have at least a one year time frame in mind, otherwise stick with cash equivalents. Enhanced cash investments do come with risks. Personally, I do feel that that risk is worthwhile, if one understands the nature and magnitude of the risk. Especially in a taxable account where one has the option of writing off a (small) loss should that occur. Though in taxable accounts there are some good ultrashort muni bond funds that can come close to RPHYX in after tax returns.
I'm not sure how STB65 has managed to lose parked (as opposed to traded) money in RPHYX.
Monthly 2017 return figures from M* (Jan, Feb, ..., Sept): 0.29%, 0.18%, 0.23%, 0.19%, 0.20%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.12%, 0.24%.
Quarterly 2015-2016 figures (1Q2015, 2Q2015, ...): 0.64%, 0.48%, -0.36%, 0.10%, 0.92%, 0.86%, 0.91%, 0.59%.
Annual returns since inception (starting 2011): 3.86%, 4.20%, 3.39%, 2.65%, 0.86%, 3.31% (2016). 2017YTD 1.72%.
Repeating: you should have at least a one year time frame in mind.

Another sector (not "the" other one) knocked out was consumer staples (one of the four in the index in July). The one replacing it in August was industrials.
https://barxis.barcap.com/US/7/en/etnsnapshot.app?instrumentId=174066 (July 2017)
The SPDR Sector figures above are price figures, not NAV figures (though there's not much difference). I figure the latter should be a little more accurate if what one is interested in is how the sector performed as opposed to how one would have done by investing in the particular ETF.
With that in mind, here are the NAV figures for XLP (consumer staples), XLY (consumer discretionary), and S&P 500 total return, from M*:

Month    XLP     XLY    S&P
Sept    -0.64   0.82
Aug     -1.06  -1.84    0.36
July     0.66   1.86    2.06
June    -2.28  -1.21    0.62
May      2.70   1.11    1.41
Apr      1.05   2.42    1.03
Mar     -0.40   2.04    0.12

(M*'s XLY's NAV figure for Sept looked way off; I used price performance here.)
As you can see, consumer stocks didn't fare well, whether necessities (staples) or discretionary.

Per the Aug 31 stats, those are the four, and discretionary is the laggard. My question is why it wasn't knocked out by the poor momentum factor. Was energy the other sector in the top-5 value department, and so it was the one knocked out instead of discretionary?

Not sure why this should surprise anyone, or even be newsworthy...
Homo sapiens generally engages in herd behavior WRT financial issues. -- Besides, 'doing something' to protect one's portfolio would have resulted in enormous opportunity cost over the past 1-, 3-, & 5-year period. So we few who did it/are doing it are seen as stupid bumpkins.
Compounding the natural herding behaviour is the dogma of 'buy and hold'. Hey, 'set it and forget it'. Everybody is worrying about trimming a couple hundredths of a decimal point off their ETF's expense ratio. I am always amazed how the most adamant 'buy and holders' are so tight-fisted about expenses, yet quite happy to pay extravagant prices for the underlying assets -- and urge others to do the same. Tulips anyone?
The business cycle has not been repealed. Bear markets have not been outlawed. There will come (another-) reckoning.
Until then, I'll just 'go fishin' (or the equivalent.--This evening, I just put in some orders for next week's T-bill auctions.)

Hmm, what's going on?
With a starting point of six months ago, CAPE and SP500 performance is close to identical,
Starting from 5/4/3/2/1mo, though, CAPE (which algorithmically value-churns every month) lags notably.
There must be a story here.

RNWIX holdings as of 7/31:
72% Emerging
14% US (Total of 6 holdings, two being Carnival Corp Lines and Royal Caribbean)
6% Frontier
6% Foreign Developed
2% Cash
The full holdings: http://www.rondureglobal.com/holdings/rnwix-rnwox are posted by domicile with a 1-month lag for both Rondure funds on their website.
The 6% "domicile" in frontier countries misrepresents RNWIX exposure to these markets because many of these companies "domiciled" in non-frontier countries have activity in frontier markets, and so the portfolio reflects this exposure.
In her 7/15/17 commentary, Geritz said that "Our New World strategy is a developing markets strategy. It is a mix of what I did as the lead on the Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Country (an all-cap strategy) and the Wasatch Emerging Small Cap strategy."
So, no, it's not a fund purely focused on frontier markets -- as has been pointed out --
but an idea that I wished to further explore myself.

On Managing Risk:

‘The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns."

market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy
Daily Market Audio:
"Russel 2000 may outperform... watch for tax reform from Washington"
Sept 29 Audio
Link to Additional Commentary:
market-commentary-and-insights

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
There are a number of rules of thumb and aphorisms that investors accept without investigating their merits based on the historical evidence. For example, many assume that buying individual bonds is safer than owning a bond mutual fund or ETF because it will shield them from interest-rate risk. The idea is that bond funds can fall in value but individual bonds will mature at par, so you don’t have to worry about losses when you hold them directly.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&q=Ben+Carlson+Some+Market+Myths+Hurt+Investors+Bloomberg&oq=Ben+Carlson+Some+Market+Myths+Hurt+Investors+Bloomberg&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3869.21060.0.21468.24.23.0.0.0.0.194.3625.0j22.22.0.dummy_maps_web_fallback...0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..2.20.3265.0..0j35i39k1j0i131k1j0i131i46k1j46i131k1j0i20i264k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.0.y6NRCaCsb8Y

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
More than half in survey expect a decline that will wipe out significant gains, but only 18% are taking steps to shield their portfolios
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&q=Investors+see+stock+market+correction+ahead+—+but+most+aren't+doing+anything+about+it+investment+news&oq=Investors+see+stock+market+correction+ahead+—+but+most+aren't+doing+anything+about+it+investment+news&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3826.10677.0.10973.19.18.0.0.0.0.324.2859.0j15j0j1.17.0.dummy_maps_web_fallback...0...1.1.64.psy-ab..2.1.181.6..35i39k1.182.CvJnc9na_qM

FYI: Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
Here’s a closed-end version of a Barron’s-profiled Invesco fund with improved returns.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&q=A+Better+Deal+on+a+Good+Bond+Fund+Barron's&oq=A+Better+Deal+on+a+Good+Bond+Fund+Barron's&gs_l=psy-ab.3...4457.13329.0.13614.12.11.0.0.0.0.190.1589.0j9.10.0.dummy_maps_web_fallback...0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..2.8.1433.6..35i39k1j33i21k1j33i160k1.196.dRdlIwPLm6o
M* Snapshot VBF:
http://www.morningstar.com/cefs/XNYS/VBF/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot VBF:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vbf

Agree. Digging deeper into the portfolio holding there is about 15% invested in US companies who derived majority of the earning from EM countries. Many of which are cruise ship entertainment companies.

Hi @johnN,
John thanks for posting the article on utilities. Eventhough utilities account for about 3% of the S&P 500 Index they currently make up about 7% of Old_Skeet's holdings. I'm thinking of raising my utility sector weighting by about (1%) by adding a mutual fund (AWTAX) that's theme centers around water.
Think about it ... the two or three things we widely use in our homes are electricty, natural gas and water (at least they are in mine). Heck, I even have and maintain a standby power generation system should there be a power outage at my home. Then there is the phone and internet that kinda follows utilities.
It is a bum deal for the rate payers in South Carolina that (Summner) a nuclear power plant will most likely never be completed. I'm thinking that the power companies owe the rate payers a refund for this power plant folly of their making. Instead the power companies want the rate payers to pay more for a plant that looks like it will never be brought on line. I look for things to heat up in South Carolina over this in the coming months as hearings take place in Columbia. While in North Carolina Duke Energy wants it's rate payers to pay for coal ash pond clean up that the utility mishandled through the years and are going to be very costly to clean up. Hearings are underway in Raleigh as I write concerning this.
If the rates payers wind up having to pay for these failures and follies of the utility companies ... I'm increasing my allocation in the utility sector. In a sence, I'll collect what I have to pay out through an increase in utility rates with their payment of dividends back to me as I own homes in both states.
For me, it is a no brainer ... own some utilities as the rate payers most likely will have to pay up.

I am a long time RPHYX shareholder, but have been reducing my position and am reconsidering its value. Originally its stated goals were (as David Snowball put it) 300-400 bps over money market. But as Junkster points out in this earlier thread:

This fund is not going to give you 3.5%-4.5% a year. I mean 2.20% over the past 3 years and 2.76 over the past 5 years. This year it is on track for around 2.80. Some of the Fidelity money market funds are now yielding over 1% (of course you will need a million dollars) And lesser money market funds yields are rising and will continue to rise with the increase in the fed funds rate. So no way 300-400bps over money market. Otherwise a fine fund with negligible volatility and way above money market returns (for now) This we can agree on.

Morningstar currently has this fund at 2.41% over the past year, 2.19% over the past 3 years and 2.58% over the past 5 years. Of course this is in part due to 2015, where there some investment mistakes resulted in a disastrous year (relatively speaking). However, just looking at the more recent returns, it doesn't seem like "300-400 bps over money market" has been a feasible goal for some time now.
I took a look at some of the recent manager commentaries on the RiverPark website, but they didn't seem to give much insight as to target return and whether they expect recent trends to persist. What do other folks think -- Is a return of 2.5% a more realistic expectation for this fund? Is it still worth sticking to around this level?