Hi Guys,
The negative correlation between mutual fund end performance and costs is well documented. This single graph tells the whole story nicely:
https://im.mstar.com/im/newhomepage/chartofweek_mutualfundcompanies_040215.png
Costs just don’t matter. They matter greatly. Control the mutual fund costs and enhance your payday. The size of each data point is a measure of the money being managed. Dodge and Cox is a winner by the graph measurement scales.
Best Wishes

Came across this (point) in Schwab link.
The average span between inversions and subsequent recessions has been 11 months, with a range of five months (1973) to 16 months (2006-2007).
Good to go for at least next 5 months !
Derf
Thanks O_S & O_J 4 links

It's about time:
https://washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/28/wells-fargo-ceo-tim-sloan-step-down-immediately/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b3b4845a290b
Crazy he gets paid this after what happened:

Making matters worse was the bank’s disclosure earlier this month in a regulatory filing that Sloan received $18.4 million in compensation in 2018, about a 5 percent bump from the previous year..
“About damn time. Tim Sloan should have been fired a long time ago,” Warren tweeted Thursday. “By the way, getting fired shouldn’t be the end of the story for Tim Sloan. He shouldn’t get a golden parachute. He should be investigated . . . And if he’s guilty of any crimes, he should be put in jail like anyone else.”
Sloan has earned more than $150 million in compensation since 2011, according to Equilar, a data firm that measures executive compensation. His retirement package will include outstanding stock worth more than $24 million, the firm said.

Thanks for the clarification.
The paper cited in the article is talking about all Personal Retirement Assets (PRAs), which it says "include[s] 401(k)s, IRAs, Keoghs, and similar plans." So while RMDs begin at age 70½, withdrawals are not required for Roth IRAs and 401(k)s and 403(b)s at your current employer.
From that paper:

Figure 5-1 pools data on households of various ages in all cohorts to summarize the average patterns of withdrawals at different ages. It shows that the average percentage of households who own a PRA who make a withdrawal increases from 11.4 percent at age 60 to 24.8 percent by age 69. This percentage jumps to over 60 percent by age 71, when the age of the household head exceeds the age at which RMDs must begin.

Not sure where you're finding that statement, I don't see it. There's only one "Of course" that I can find, and it reads:
"Of course, the reality is that this 65-year-old couple could have simply purchased a single premium immediate annuity with inflation-adjusting payments to cover their lifetime guaranteed income goal as well, simply starting at age 65 when they retired."
Based strictly on what I'm reading here, all I can do is guess at the context - perhaps that by age 71, when RMDs are mandatory, 60% of people are actually spending that cash. (RMDs are a tax event, not a spend/disinvest requirement.)
Regarding insurance company risk - there's a big difference between LTC insurance and annuities. The latter are just the flip side of life insurance. For both forms of insurance, what matters is the life insurer's basic soundness and its knowledge of mortality tables and risks. These companies have been in the business for over a century. They've had a lot of practice and learning about how to set rates to remain viable.
Oldest modern life insurance company in the US, dating from 1842, inspired this:

Often wondered why those coastal states haven't gone geothermal: use ocean water at (I'm guessing 56 degrees or so.) Horizontal install. We are inland, use vertical wells, finish off with electric. Works summer and winter.
Guess I'm just dumb but we are so past break point.
Best, hawk

The Wall Street Journal is currently reporting that " Wells Fargo Chief Executive Tim Sloan stepped down on Thursday, ending a 31-year career at the bank and an arduous two-and-a-half-year effort to get it back on solid footing after a fake-account scandal erupted in 2016."
"C. Allen Parker, Wells Fargo’s general counsel, will be interim CEO. He joined Wells Fargo in 2017 from law firm Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP to help clean up the bank following the sales scandal."
"Officials at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, one of the bank’s primary regulators, had grown so frustrated with Wells Fargo’s mounting problems that they were debating the rare step of forcing changes to Wells Fargo’s senior management or board, The Wall Street Journal previously reported."
(Short selected excerpts from a longer and substantial Wall Street Journal report.)

@MFO Members: If I'm not mistaken they did the same thing back in March 2015.
Regards,
Ted

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105563/000093247119006695/ps210320191.htm
497 1 ps210320191.htm VANGUARD WELLINGTON FUND
Vanguard Wellington™ Fund
Supplement to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus
Important Note Regarding Vanguard Wellington Fund
Vanguard Wellington Fund will be closed to all prospective financial advisory,
institutional, and intermediary clients (other than clients who invest through a
Vanguard brokerage account).
The Fund will remain closed until further notice and there is no specific time
frame for when the Fund will reopen. During the Fund’s closed period, all current
shareholders may continue to purchase, exchange, or redeem shares of the
Fund online, by telephone, or by mail.
The Fund may modify these transaction policies at any time and without prior
notice to shareholders. You may call Vanguard for more detailed information
about the Fund’s transaction policies. Participants in employer-sponsored plans
may call Vanguard Participant Services at 800-523-1188. Investors in
nonretirement accounts and IRAs may call Vanguard’s Investor Information
Department at 800-662-7447.
© 2019 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor. PS 21 032019

PIMIX $25K at VBS (Vanguard Brokerage Services).

I've had a few items regarding inverted yield curve stashed in the laptop for a few years. I've retrieved those and looked around for other, newer related information.
I suspect there may others with theories from much earlier dates; but this look starts with Campbell Harvey from 1986. A Arturo Estrella link is also included.
I can not offer a formal financial education suggestion as to what is ahead for the markets. I can only personally rely upon what I see with market moves; being bonds and equity. Some equity market actions in 2018 (Feb. 2018 and Dec. 2018) had flashes of late 2007 market swings.
I'm one of those bad boys who watches the markets and the portfolio, daily; if time allows. Does this make me an emotional trader? The answer would be a big NO. But, I sure as heck know more about changes and trends in the investing road upon which I am driving.
Charts, charts; those darn charts. Yes, I look at these. They're not some magic back testing event view. They are the investment roads that have been and are being driven with real money. Charts just happen to be a comfort area for me to view trends to mix with other news and intuition; meaning whatever is still in my brain cells from experience.
We remain 34% U.S. focused bond fund (mostly corp. and Treasury) , 33% equity; being tech. and health related and 33% money market cash at about 1.7% yield.
These links are quite broad and could require more time than one is willing to expend on the topic; so you may pick and choose a link of your choice.
Campbell Harvey
Campbell Harvey, related videos
Campbell Harvey, direct search at YouTube
Arturo Estrella
A yield curve chart below, from my post on Wednesday. The below chart..... Treasury(s) is for 30, 10 and 5 year; as well as the 3 month. It looks a little busy if viewed on anything smaller than an Ipad size screen. The critical color is the mauve, which is the 3 month yield. So, keep in mind; this is not a price chart. If one is using a laptop/desktop with a pointer/mouse the cursor can be hovered on the lines and will display the yield %, date and percentage change from the begin date of the chart. Looking at the cross-over points will provide information as to when the inversions were taking place.
Yields, Feb. 2006 - May, 2009
Another 1,000 words could be expressed; but gotta do some other work.
Take care,
Catch

Old_Skeet is not, at this time, cutting my equity allocation as I recently went to an all weather asset allocation model of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity a few months prior to the yeild curve inverting. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% for the income and the equity areas while I generally let cash float. In addition, I can tactually allocate within equities up to +5% without having to do a forced rebalance.

FYI: (Slide mouse to 36:40 for Steven Yacktman interview.)
Episode Info
Chris Larkin, senior vice president at E*Trade said in The Big Interview that while the market appears to be slowing and many experts are talking about the potential for a recession, the market looks like it can continue to push forward for a while. Just the same, he suggested that investors want to adjust their strategies to accept heightened volatility and slower growth. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a short-term bond fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener question about the right number of credit cards to have, and Stephen Yacktman of the Yacktman Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe/e/59691058?autoplay=true
Yacktman Funds Website:
http://www.yacktman.com/index.html

FYI: The 4% retirement withdrawal rule has enjoyed a ubiquitous presence in the world of financial planning ever since William Bengen proposed it in 1994. Mr. Bengen's rule states that individuals should withdraw no more than 4% of their retirement savings annually to ensure they will not outlive their assets.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=ccmcXPu3F4ezjwSUmLCIDg&q=Outside-IN:+Why+the+4%+rule+may+be+irrelevant+&btnK=Google+Search&oq=Outside-IN:+Why+the+4%+rule+may+be+irrelevant+&gs_l=psy-ab.3..33i299l3.3412.3412..20335...0.0..0.169.337.0j2......0....2j1..gws-wiz.....0.Zy569NjMjVs

FYI: Unless you spend your day glued to a Bloomberg terminal or mainlining CNBC, you might have missed the news late last week that the yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds “inverted” for the first time since 2007. This dry-sounding development has led to a great deal of speculation on Wall Street and in the financial press about whether an economic downturn might finally be on the way. As the Wall Street Journal’s James Mackintosh put it, “The market’s most reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red.”
Why does this have people so worried? The yield curve has inverted in the lead-up to all nine U.S. recessions since 1955. As the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco notes, there has only been one instance in the last six decades when an inversion wasn’t followed by an official recession within two years or less. That was back in the mid-1960s, when growth slowed, but the economy didn’t technically shrink. Since then, there hasn’t been a single false alarm.
Regards,
Ted
https://slate.com/business/2019/03/recession-indicator-yield-curve-economy-worry.html

FYI: Global stocks wavered Thursday as investors weighed whether recent concerns about global growth marked a blip in market sentiment or a permanent turn away from the buoyancy that defined the beginning of 2019.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.4% in morning trading. Asian stocks were mostly lower with the Shanghai Stock Exchange down 0.9% and Japan’s Nikkei down 1.6%.
U.S. futures pointed to opening rises of 0.1% for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.
Negative sentiment has weighed on equities this week and pushed bond yields lower across the globe as investors flock to haven assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury on Thursday fell to 2.358%, from 2.374% on Wednesday. Yields move inversely to prices.
In recent sessions investors have been faced with a series of signals that global growth could be set to slow, with the U.S. yield curve inverting just as the yield on 10-year German government bonds turned negative, both events which are considered harbingers of a global downturn.
Still, U.S. central bank officials spoke out Wednesday, suggesting it is still too soon to begin cutting rates, which is what markets are forecasting when the yield curve inverts.
Nevertheless, many investors say the recent market jitters are unjustified and expect the rally at the beginning of 2019 to continue apace.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was up 0.1% on Thursday.
In the U.K., investors digested an announcement by Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday that she would resign if the agreement she has negotiated with Brussels is approved by Parliament. The announcement came just as lawmakers failed to find a majority on any given path for Brexit, adding to political uncertainty and beginning a tussle for the nation’s leadership.
The British pound was down 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro on Thursday. The FTSE 100 index, which is dominated by large international businesses, gained 0.6% while the FTSE 250 gained 0.4%.
Emerging-market currencies have also been roiled this week, with the Turkish lira down 3.9% against the U.S. dollar Thursday, the South African rand down 0.4% and the Argentine peso flat following a big drop earlier in the week.
Turkey’s markets have been in flux ahead of local elections that test the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has warned he would punish speculators at a time when inflation and unemployment weigh on investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, the Argentine peso plumbed new lows in recent sessions as spiraling inflation worried markets.
Regards,
Ted
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pause-as-bond-yields-continue-to-fall-11553763647
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/treasuries-rally-builds-asia-stocks-set-to-slip-markets-wrap
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-lululemon-stock-lululemon-earnings-lyft-ipo-price-range-raised/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/stock-market-growth-fears-remain-in-focus-gdp-and-jobless-numbers.html
U.K.:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/ftse-100-gains-on-sterling-slide-brexit-deadlock-intact-idUKKCN1R90TT
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-stocks/european-shares-edge-higher-on-trade-optimism-but-brexit-impasse-weighs-idUSL3N21F1J2
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikkei-falls-but-other-asian-markets-make-up-early-losses-2019-03-27/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-lower-as-investors-await-data-auctions.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/forex-market-dovish-central-banks-us-treasury-yields-in-focus.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/oil-market-us-crude-inventories-opec-supply-cuts-in-focus.htmlOil:
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/gold-market-us-treasury-yield-brexit-vote-in-focus.html
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

The following are lightly edited excerpts from a current NPR news report:
"A jury in San Francisco has awarded a California man $80 million in damages after he claimed that the weedkiller Roundup caused his cancer. The same six-person panel earlier this month sided with 70-year-old Edwin Hardeman, whose lawyers argued that the glyphosate-based herbicide was a "substantial factor" in causing non-Hodgkins lymphoma.
The Sonoma County man was diagnosed in February 2015, and had used Roundup on his 56-acre property for more than two decades, according to his lawsuit.
Bayer and Monsanto face hundreds of other Roundup lawsuits in the San Francisco federal court.
The verdict is the second in the U.S. to find a connection between the herbicide's key ingredient, glyphosate, and the disease. In August, another San Francisco jury determined Roundup had caused cancer in a former groundskeeper. It also decided Monsanto, the company that developed the popular weedkiller, deliberately failed to warn consumers or regulators about the product's risks."

NPR is reporting that "Idaho Power plans to stop using coal energy and rely instead on hydroelectric, solar and wind resources, the utility says. The public utility vows that 100 percent of energy will come from "clean" sources by 2045. Public utilities have made similar pledges in only a handful of states.
Idaho Power customers increasingly see clean energy that doesn't rely on carbon dioxide-producing fossil fuels as a priority, the company says.
"We believe this goal is attainable," Idaho Power President and CEO Darrel Anderson said in announcing the plan.
Idaho Power says it has already agreed to stop using two coal power plants by 2025 and that it's considering how to shut down its third and final coal plant."
The preceding are excerpts from the NPR article.

( The Closing Bell will be updated sometime after 4:00 PM CDST to include the latest update from IBD and Bloomberg Evening Briefing, and will be moved to the top of the Discussion /Board.)
FYI: New worries about the global economy fueled another drop in Treasury yields and weighed down U.S. stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 32 points, or 0.13%, at 25625 after opening slightly higher and falling as much as 232 points in midday trading. The S&P 500 declined 0.46%. The benchmark equity gauge snapped a two-session losing streak Tuesday and has rebounded more than 11.5% so far this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 0.63%.
U.S. Treasury yields, which fall as bond prices rise, slipped again, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to about 2.37% from 2.418% a day earlier. Tuesday’s close marked its lowest since December 2017.
Stocks slid last week after a measure of the yield curve, the gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields, inverted for the first time in more than a decade.
In the past, the 10-year Treasury yield falling below the 3-month yield has preceded recessions. But major indexes have also often risen for several months following such inversions, another factor muddying the economic backdrop after a stretch of mixed data and lockstep rallies in stocks and bonds.
European stocks edged lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 falling 0.2%. Volatility in Turkish markets continued ahead of local elections later this week, with the Turkish lira falling against the dollar and the country’s main stock index sliding more than 5%.
Earlier, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.2%.
Only one of the S&P 500 Sectors, Industrials had a positive day. The other ten led by Communication Services were in the red.
Regards
Ted
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/your-evening-briefing
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-set-to-face-fresh-pressure-as-10-year-treasury-yield-falls-to-236-2019-03-27/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pause-as-economic-doubts-persist-11553677005
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-26/asia-stocks-set-to-rise-as-treasury-rally-eases-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/boeing-apple-lead-stock-market-dow-jones-passes-key-test/
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-stocks/wall-street-bogged-down-by-growth-worries-falling-yields-idUSKCN1R817V
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-as-recession-fears-grip-investors.html
U.K.:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/ftse-100-gains-mps-votes-on-brexit-process-eyed-idUKKCN1R80PN
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-hand-back-gains-as-growth-fears-resurface-idUSKCN1R80VY
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-pacific-markets-mixed-as-fears-of-global-slowdown-persist-2019-03-26/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/us-bonds-growth-fears-linger-after-yield-curve-inversion.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/forex-market-us-recession-fears-brexit-vote-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/oil-market-us-inventory-gain-supply-curbs-in-focus.html
Gold
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/gold-market-us-bond-markets-global-economic-slowdown-in-focus.html
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
https://markets.wsj.com/us
Major ETFs % Change:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Lost potential most likely, buy high-sell low.

@MikeM, Let me get this right.
- You sold a share of Netflix to me in July at $350.
- I panicked and sold that share to @msf in December at $200.
- msf sold it back to you again last week for $350. For you it was “0 sum” since your brokerage costs were covered by the interest you earned on the money over the 7 months between selling Netflix and buying it back.
The Math:
- You broke even.
- msf gained $150.
- I lost $150.
That’s a zero sum series of transactions. For the sake of argument let’s overlook brokerage costs. I don’t think they would account for the magnitude of the paper losses the Dalbar report references.
Still wondering where all the lost money went?