Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fund Manager Shifts at Mairs & Power
    Here's the info from the SEC filing yesterday:
    Andrew R. Adams has been named lead portfolio manager of the Growth Fund and Allen D. Steinkopf has been named lead portfolio manager of the Small Cap Fund, effective April 1, 2019.
    Mark L. Henneman, currently the lead portfolio manager of the Growth Fund, will serve as co-manager of the Growth Fund. Andrew R. Adams, currently the lead portfolio manager of the Small Cap Fund, will serve as co-manager of the Small Cap Fund.
    Mr. Adams has been co-manager of the Growth Fund since January 1, 2015 and Mr. Steinkopf has been co-manager of the Small Cap Fund since January 1, 2015.
    In addition, Peter J. Johnson has been named co-manager of the Growth Fund effective April 1, 2019.

  • M*: How To Get The Most From Bucket 1: The Cash Bucket: Text & Video Presentation
    1-2y true cash may be a little scant, though I just commenced moves to result in 5y cash or bonds and that seems excessive, some days
  • M*: How To Get The Most From Bucket 1: The Cash Bucket: Text & Video Presentation
    My cash area consist of two sleeves. A demand cash sleeve where I hold enough cash to meet my income distributions needs plus some for new investment purposes. Generally, this sleeve holds a sum equal to about one years worth of portfolio income generation. In my investment cash sleeve are found mine and my wife's bank savings accouts, our brokerage held money market mutual funds and a one to three year cd ladder. At one time, I considered holding the 1 to 3 year US Treasury etf SHY; but due to its current yield of 1.87% I scuttled this thought since my CD ladder is paying out north of 2.5% and my current money market funds are paying out north of 2.25%. We hold a sum equal to about three years worth of cash draw needs in the investment cash sleeve. Probally more than we should; but, there again, should we get into a protracted market decline I don't want to have to sell investments in other portfolio areas should the need arise to raise some cash especially in a down market.
  • Ron Rowland's Invest With An Edge: Market Leadership Strategy: 4/1/19
    For the heck of it, I took the year by year performance data from this strategy and broke it into 2 segments, 1998-2007 and 2008-4/30/17 (that's where the data ends). The system seems to have 2 different results. Market Edge '98-'07 returned 16.7% versus 7.2% for the S&P 500. Pretty darn good. But results for 2008-2017, Market Edge 8.97% versus 8.94% for S&P. Almost a a dead-heat.
    Wonder why the system worked so well from 1998-2007 but didn't from 2008-2017?
  • Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund closing to new investors via financial intermediaries
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834419005915/fp0040734_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED APRIL 1, 2019
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS FOR
    THE GRANDEUR PEAK INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND (THE “FUND”)
    DATED AUGUST 31, 2018, AS SUPPLEMENTED FROM TIME TO TIME
    Effective April 15, 2019, the Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund will no longer accept purchases through financial intermediaries unless the purchase is part of:
    ● a retirement plan which held the Fund prior to this closure,
    ● an automatic reinvestment of a distribution made by the Fund, or
    ●a de minimis annual rebalancing approved by a member of the Grandeur Peak client team.
    The Fund will remain open to new purchases from existing shareholders and to new shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Ron Rowland's Invest With An Edge: Market Leadership Strategy: 4/1/19
    FYI: The Market Leadership Strategy indicates a potential to outperform the S&P 500 with less risk. See below how to implement this strategy.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investwithanedge.com/market-leadership-strategy
  • One Of The Most Important Recession Indicators Is Beginning To Flash. Is It Time to Worry Yet?
    @newgirl: The commodity strategy fund that I own is PCLAX. I have linked it's Morningstar report below. It had a great 1st Quarter with a total return of 15.83%. During the past 12 months it has paid out about $0.87 per share resulting in a TTM yield of better than 11%. I limit my exposure to this fund to about 3% to 5% of its sleeve value. Based upon current valuations this amounts to about 3.5%.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PCLAX/quote.html
  • Q&A With American Pie’ Singer Don McLean: How He Made $150 Million And Invested It

    I applaud his approach (and the debt-free thing) but can't help noting he was doing bonds during a MAJOR bond bull market. Heck if I could get 10, 15, or 20% in quality gov bonds now like they were back in the 70s and 80s I'd sell everything and move into them, too.
    But I give him great credit for knowing that it's not how much you make, it's how much you keep. That might be from the finance background. Once you have a good sum of money, the objective is to keep it.
    What a great voice he had/has...though "American Pie" was not my favorite song of his. That choice has to go to his cover of Roy Orbison's "Crying".
  • Q&A With American Pie’ Singer Don McLean: How He Made $150 Million And Invested It

    I applaud his approach (and the debt-free thing) but can't help noting he was doing bonds during a MAJOR bond bull market. Heck if I could get 10, 15, or 20% in quality gov bonds now like they were back in the 70s and 80s I'd sell everything and move into them, too.
    It's like this past 10 years ... lots of folks probably think they're awesome stock pickers and/or savvy investors when the "rising tide" pretty much lifted all equity boats post-GFC.
  • The Lehman Curse
    Thanks @msf for the excellent response to @Ted’s questionable use of MFO board space. :) It’s always a good idea to read some top flight reviews, like you’ve linked, before shucking out money. The NYT is hard to top in that category.
    In simpler terms, there are many reasons for attending a play other than to learn about finance or financial history. When one considers the cost of transport to NYC, the outrageous hotel rates, the dilapatated subways, a third world airport (LGA) - and play tickets reaching into the hundreds of dollars (even for a cramped seat), from a purely financial standpoint, attending a play in NYC is a non-starter. Better to stay home and count your dollars.
    Largely, @Ted’s linked Bloomberg review sheds little light on investing and misses the mark as a literary critique. I suppose as a look at the profit margins involved in producing a play or a comment on how the consumer chooses to spend his discretionary income there may be some use. Those do bear on investing. But, as presented, the article barely touches upon those areas. I’ll say that the fact that the producer of this play also produced the Broadway revival of Cabaret a few years ago, I’d at least consider attending this one. That is one of the most profoundly meaningful and moving semi-historical dramas I’ve witnessed. Saw it three times in NYC - and regretted its closing.
    Critical Reviews of dramatic art, which you mention, rarely concern themselves with historical (or financial) accuracy - though it’s appropriate to note where substantial artistic license has been taken by the writer / producer. As I said earlier, receiving a factual lesson in finance or history would rank low on the list of reasons why one might attend a play.
    It should be noted the play isn’t appearing on Broadway (at least yet). It’s location, The Park Avenue Armory, is in the 59th Avenue area of NYC - a dozen or or more blocks away from the Broadway section where most top-flight plays are performed. As the Park Avenue institution appears to have a relationship with the highly respected Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts. I’d expect the play to be top quality.
    -
    From Wikepedia: “Artistic license”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artistic_license
    [excerpt] “Artistic license often provokes controversy by offending those who resent the reinterpretation of cherished beliefs ... William Shakespeare's historical plays, for example, are gross distortions of historical fact but are nevertheless lauded as outstanding literary works.”
    From Wikepedia: Park Avenue Armory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Avenue_Armory
    From Marketwatch: For those (like Ted) whose primary concern seems to be finance / financial accuracy (not artistic merit) here’s a quick read - How To Make Money On Broadway.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-make-money-producing-on-broadway-2018-07-16
  • The Lehman Curse
    This review from Institutional Investor, focusing on the price of the tickets, the wealth of the audience, the genre of financial plays and so on, assures me that the stereotypical green eyeshaded bean counter is alive and well.
    General newspapers published reviews in their arts sections, not their business sections. (Why is this post a fund discussion?) It seems they unanimously praised this play, in stark contrast to the take presented in the cited piece.
    The contrast between the dry money-oriented perspective ("absence of drama") of the cited review and the creative, artistic perspective of the other reviews can be seen in this headline from Bloomberg:
    Theatrical Retelling of Lehman Brothers Is Big on Drama, Light on Finance
    Other reviews:
    Washington Post (Theater and Dance), The Lehman Trilogy’ is so good, it expands your sense of what three actors on a stage can conjure
    (NY) Newsday (Entertainment/Theater), 'The Lehman Trilogy' review: Rich, rewarding saga of a financial empire
    NYTimes (Theater), Critics Pick, Review: A Magnificent Road to Ruin in ‘The Lehman Trilogy’
    amNewYork (Entertainment), 4 stars, The Lehman Trilogy' review: Financial epic an unlikely must-see
    The Hollywood Reporter, 'The Lehman Trilogy': Theater Review: "The bottom line: Likely to be the theater event of the season."
  • One Of The Most Important Recession Indicators Is Beginning To Flash. Is It Time to Worry Yet?
    @DavidV: Thank you for your question about my all weather asset allocation.
    My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocaton is that it provides sufficent income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stablizes a portfolio during stock market volitility.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diverisfied area that incorporates a good number of diverisified income generating type funds including a commodity strategy fund that has a yield of about 11%.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth that equities generally provide that offsets the effects of inflation plus, over time, they tend to offer up a growth of principal benefit as well.
    I found years back this asset allocation model gave me good comfort when I ran my parents money during their retirement years. It is also the model my parents broker recommended that I follow which worked well for them and now I have adopted it.
    My father's all weather model had less risk than the one I have described above. His model was 25% cash, 25% fixed income, 25% stocks and 25% real estate. Also know he was raised during the depression and farm land was a cherished asset.
  • A Bond ETF With An Equity Feel: (CWB)
    FYI: Investors looking for bonds that often feel like stocks can consider convertible bonds, which are easily accessible via the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities ETF CWB,
    Convertible bonds are hybrid securities that give investors the option to convert those bonds into shares of common stock of the issuing company.
    Historically, convertible bonds have been among the best areas of the bond market to be involved with when interest rates rise, but CWB betrayed that reputation last year. Amid fears about the state of high-yield corporate debt and the fourth-quarter equity market plunge, CWB showed its correlation to equity market gyrations.
    After slumping in the last three months of 2018, CWB finished the year lower by 2 percent compared to 0.1-percent gain for the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index.
    The correlations between convertible debt and stocks can't be understated.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bond-etf-with-an-equity-feel-2019-03-29-1246451/print
    M* Snapshot CWB:
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/CWB/quote.html
  • The Lehman Curse
    FYI: After a string of flops, can the nearly four-hour Lehman Trilogy play turn around Wall Street drama?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1drctlg6ywd57/The-Lehman-Curse
  • Q&A With American Pie’ Singer Don McLean: How He Made $150 Million And Invested It
    FYI: McLean talks with MarketWatch about the only two stocks he owns, the meaning of ‘American Pie,’ and why he’s never had an assistant.
    In 1971, Don McLean released the album “American Pie,” and the title song became one of the most famous — and successful — ever made. It came out at a time of major political and social upheaval in America, and captured a feeling of loss. The song runs for over eight minutes, and is No. 5 on the list of best songs of the 20th century. Now 73, McLean talked with MarketWatch about his most famous song, and a wide range of other topics, including money, stardom, and the music business today.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-pie-singer-don-mclean-has-made-150-million-in-his-career-heres-what-hes-done-with-it-2019-03-25/print
  • Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant
    Yes, a great deal depends on one's circumstances, prospects and specific desires as to what to actually DO with retirement income. I could forget about Medicare and live like a king in The Philippines, even after needing to buy an insurance policy over there which covers my long list of prescriptions and doctor/hospital care. (Wife is from there.) But the food and the climate in The Philippines both really suck. I could, as an Irish citizen, move there, too. But the health insurance system is not as good as some others within the EU. I do know for certain specifically that diabetes needs are covered 100%, totally free, in Ireland. And I'd first have to establish residency in Ireland for long enough to be able to fill out a form which transfers my health coverage to a different country within the EU which I actually want to live in--- maybe the south of Portugal, where it's sunny and warm for more of the year.
    But as long as my wife remains 19 years younger than I am, there is a very reasonable expectation for as long as I live that at least one full-time income can be depended upon, between the two of us. That's like an "ace in the hole." My income-producing mutual funds only continue to grow, too. So, we can afford to leave the principal behind me, so that she will get it after my passing. Which I hope will be many years away. Our Will provides the specific destinations for various percentages of what we will both leave behind, once that happens. It is satisfying to be able to do this, emotionally and spiritually. But I worry about my son's prospects re: retirement. Nothing like my own case. He's 25. ... Re: healthcare, just imagine how much easier and stress-free everything would be if we could provide decent healthcare to everyone, globally?! ...It would require some very stoopid countries to get smart, though. I'm talking about IQ as well as putting POLITICAL stoopid-ity behind them!
  • One Of The Most Important Recession Indicators Is Beginning To Flash. Is It Time to Worry Yet?
    The market has risen after yield inversion ( albeit in a small sample size ) on past occasions. Link shows highest forward return after onset of yield inversion

    The yield spread is an important and useful ( and is definitely getting a lot of attention these days ), yet it is an isolated data series
    In the book "A Guide to Modern Quantitative Tactical Asset Allocation" *, one of the few data series that has shown enough precision and statistical confidence for use towards signaling infrequent tactical shifts from equity based assets into safe duration assets in avoidance of significant decline events and sequence of returns risk, has been a "trend change" in the Conference Board Leading Economic index. The CB LEI is constructed with a composite of 10 data series components ( the yield spread being one ), creating a more robust view of economic activity. One will see many of these components being used in analysis, in isolated fashion, in attempts to devine the direction of the economy / equity markets.
    A trend change in the CB LEI variable combined with and confirmed by signaling produced from a stock market trend identifier ( Moving average variable - core concepts # 3 & 4, chapters 1, 3 & 4 * ), has identified the bulk of significant market decline periods over the past 50 years.
    At present, the two trends are positive ( since July of 2009 ) **
    Additionally, from the past historical signals generated ( Chapter 5, Part 1, table 2 * ) in the past, we can see the gains accrued from the onset of the inversion to the next negative trend change of the LEI / moving average variables https://imgur.com/EGpcnQC
    A key premise to successful investing involves the holding of equity based assets for longest optimal periods ( years in most cases ), and in rare circumstances, switch to duration assets ( months in most cases ).
    . . .
    * https://tinyurl.com/y6w4ca8b
    ** https://tinyurl.com/y9rrzral
  • Why The 4% Rule May Be Irrelevant
    Hi Davidrmoran,
    I too recognized the article's publication date. It was a long time ago and indeed the information could be stale and no longer relevant. I did consider that possibility and rejected it. Old does not immediately mean bad and outdated. A great example is The Intelligent Investor book by Benjamin Graham. It was published in 1949. It's insights remain as valid today as when it was originally offered to the public.
    As you are likely aware, I strongly recommend that investors consider using Monte Carlo analyses when making uncertain investment decisions. I do and I believe it helps. The referenced article supports my position. I simply took advantage of that added endorsement.
    Thanks for reading my post.
    ADDED just a few minutes later:
    I am certainly not unique in recognizing the value (it has shortcomings too) of Monte Carlo when making uncertain investment decisions. Here is a Link to yet another advocate:
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/112514/monte-carlo-simulation-basics.asp
    Best Wishes