FYI: The “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” is on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. Since the founding of the race and racetrack (in which the company draws its name) in 1875, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) has branched out to a number of other lines of business including ownership of other race tracks and casinos around the US in addition to online gambling sites. CHDN has been like Secretariat over the last decade, posting a "10-bagger" by rising more than 10x in value since its low in 2009.
So how does the stock perform around "Derby Day" specifically? In the past 20 years, the period leading up to the Kentucky Derby has typically been pretty shaky for the stock with declines in the month and week leading up to the race. Historically, in the month before the derby, CHDN has only risen 28.57% of the time with an average decline of 2.26%. The week before has been slightly better, but still declines over half the time. This year bucked the trend, though, with the stock rising 12.11% over the past month and 6.91% in the past week; similar to 2016.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/churchill-downs-chdn-off-to-the-races

FYI: Norway’s $1.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, made record returns on investment in the first quarter amid a surge in tech stocks.
Separately, the fund is assessing whether to make an investment in ride-hailing company Uber Technologies Inc, which is planning an initial public offering, its chief executive told Reuters.
The fund earned 738 billion Norwegian crowns ($84.15 billion) for the January-March period, the highest amount it has ever recorded.
When measured in terms of the fund’s international currency basket, the return for the quarter stood at 9.1 percent, beating its benchmark, it added.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf/norways-wealth-fund-made-record-returns-in-first-quarter-looking-at-uber-ipo-idUSKCN1S9132

Hank I agree!! I used to love reading USNWR -- and the old Business Week -- back in the '80s and '90s when in high school, college, and beyond. Since then both publications have deteriorated considerably and I long-since gave up reading them. :/

U.S. News tends to be big on “splashy” headlines nowadays and low in quality. A step above the financial porn served up by the now defunct Money Magazine - but not by far. They’ve taken a once reputable name in news (the long extinct U.S. News & World Report) and converted it into some remotely related online publication. I’d much rather do my own investigating by digging through actual prospectuses and annual reports (from the fund companies) and the fund data and analysis from the likes of Lipper, Morningstar, Max Funds and, of course, at MFO. If you can get 3 of those to agree on a fund’s desirability, it’s probably worth considering.
The article takes a scatter-shot approach. Why on earth would a younger 401-K investor want to hold a corporate bond fund? Index 500 = duh. I’m not opposed to holding index funds, but they’re pretty much all the same - save for fees. Yes, VG is a low cost leader, but you hardly need third party “study” or “recommendation” to know that.
I long for the days when as a “nerdy” teen I subscribed / eagerly anticipated my weekly copy of U.S. News & World Report. Money was tight growing up. I typically devoured these cover to cover twice before discarding. While conservatively slanted, you couldn’t beat it for covering the week’s hard news.

I’m unable to access the article. But the elephant in the room here would appear to be: What’s the rest of the money invested in? For someone heavily allocated to aggressive growth funds, a higher cash level might be appropriate. But, if you’re holding a lot of balanced, diversified income or asset allocation funds, than those already hold some cash (or short term bonds) and so your own cash allocation might not need to be as high. Like so many other questions postulated here, the answer can only be answered in context.
Personally, I target 15% in my static allocation (possibly appropriate for the 70+ crowd). That’s not strictly cash, however. Also includes some short-term bond funds. I’ve considered taking it down to 10% and putting the 5% into something a bit more aggressive like TMSRX at T. Rowe. That fund should pull a couple percent higher than cash over intermediate term (3-5 years) without a whole lot of additional risk from what I can see. But there’s more liquidity with cash. So I’ll let it rest.
While cash isn’t trash, If one can afford even a modicum of fluctuation in value (and dispense with FDIC backing), there are better alternatives.

U.S. News tends to be big on “splashy” headlines nowadays and low in quality. A step above the financial porn served up by the now defunct Money Magazine - but not by far. They’ve taken a once reputable name in news (the long extinct U.S. News & World Report) and converted it into some remotely related online publication. I’d much rather do my own investigating by digging through actual prospectuses and annual reports (from the fund companies) and the fund data and analysis from the likes of Lipper, Morningstar, Max Funds and, of course, at MFO. If you can get 3 of those to agree on a fund’s desirability, it’s probably worth considering.
The article takes a scatter-shot approach. Why on earth would a younger 401-K investor want to hold a corporate bond fund? Index 500 = duh. I’m not opposed to holding index funds, but they’re pretty much all the same - save for fees. Yes, VG is a low cost leader, but you hardly need third party “study” or “recommendation” to know that.
I long for the days when as a “nerdy” teen I subscribed / eagerly anticipated my weekly copy of U.S. News & World Report. Money was tight growing up. I typically devoured these cover to cover twice before discarding. While conservatively slanted, you couldn’t beat it for covering the week’s hard news.

Probably 15%in mom retired portfolio (unaccounted for 12 months emergency funds of course)

http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/2_3053-quarterly_A-quarterly.html
1/4/19 was the last online WSJ Quarterly Mutual Fund Report. It now has the Barron's heading, but hasn't been updated since then.

FYI: Should I hold a cash reserve in retirement? If so, how much? And, if you’re willing to share, do you have a cash reserve as part of your retirement savings?
Sure. Happy to share. But let’s start with some background.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-cash-should-you-hold-in-retirement-11556805424?mod=md_mf_news

@ hank; Check this headline.
M*: 5 Steps To A Refreshed, Rebalanced Portfolio
Recently posted here.
Derf

                           Fund 1   Fund 2
Securitized                80.22%   70.81%
Agency MBS Pass-Through    18.39%   14.86%
Agency MBS ARM              9.35%    0.01%
Agency MBS CMO             10.46%    2.31%
Non-Agency Residential MBS  4.33%   12.31%
Commercial MBS              0.00%    5.02%
Asset-Backed               37.69%   34.39%
Covered Bond                0.00%    0.49%

Would you consider one of these funds significantly more or less risky than the other? If your focus is on non-agency RMBSs, would you consider Fund 2 higher risk?
To my less discerning eye, these look pretty similar, though in a broad sense it seems Fund 1 concentrates a bit more on Agency MBSs (of all stripes) than non-Agency MBSs (of all stripes), while Fund 2 does the reverse. They are both more than 1/3 invested in ABSs.
(Figures are from M*; Fund 1 is dated 3/31/19; Fund 2 is dated 12/31/18.)

River Canyon is having the minimum amount for a regular account updated from 100K to $2500. The change does not yet appear on the Fidelity website.
The minimum amount for an IRA is $0, which has not changed.
Fidelity has a $49.95 TF.

Virtually everything in the article is simply a description of how ETFs make cap gains magically disappear. This is why ETFs are marketed as "tax efficient".
All that Vanguard did was make an ETF that owns the same underlying portfolio as Admiral class and Investor class shares. So when the ETF shares make cap gains disappear from the portfolio, there are no cap gains to distribute among the shareholders - none to the ETF class shareholders, none to the Admiral class shareholders, none to the Investor class shareholders.
A very quick search (for Vanguard VIPER patent) turned up this article. Not great, but it does cover what I wrote above, and was published in 2005.
http://www.exchangetradedfunds.com/news/190905Vanpatent.html

Unlike other ETFs, the Vipers, or Vanguard Index Participation Equity Receipts, are separate share-classes of Vanguard's index funds. In contrast, rival firms' ETFs are "stand-alone" funds. ...
Vanguard claims a symbiotic relationship exists between the Vipers ETFs and the index funds. ...
The way in which all ETFs create and redeem shares provides tax benefits. ...
First, ETFs are not forced to sell stock and raise cash to meet investor redemptions, which can result in distributing capital gains to remaining shareholders. Plus, the in-kind redemption process enables the manager to offload stocks that have risen in price, allowing the ETF "to flush out unrealized capital gains from the portfolio on an ongoing basis, assuming there are sufficient redemptions to do so," ...
As a result, the Viper ETF share class enables the manager of the corresponding index-fund class to "wash out" potential capital gains in the mutual fund.

This is ridiculously old news.
Many Vanguard index funds come in three classes: Investor (now closed), Admiral, and ETF. Two of those are purchased directly from Vanguard (or from Vanguard via a brokerage), one is purchased the same as a stock.
They are just different ways of owning, buying, and selling the same underlying fund.
VT, VOO, VTI, etc. are merely share classes of Vanguard World Stock Fund (VTWAX), Vanguard 500 (VFINX, VFIAX), Vanguard Total Stock Index (VTSAX), etc.
If you think the idea of wiping out cap gains by dumping them off on authorized participants and in the process making them disappear is fishy, according to the article, so does Gabelli.

(The Closing Bell will be updated sometime after 4:00 PM CDST to include the latest updates from IBD and Bloomberg Evening Briefing.)
FYI: U.S. stocks swung between small gains and losses after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and reiterated it will stay patient with rates amid a mixed economic backdrop.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 162 points, or 0.61%, to 26429, having entered Wednesday’s session 0.9% below last year’s record. The S&P 500 fell 0.75% on the first day of trading in May, with stocks coming off one of their best four-month starts to a year ever. An advance Wednesday would mark the S&P 500’s fourth consecutive record close. The broad equity gauge is up 17% for the year.
The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite lost 0.57% and was slightly below Monday’s record.
The central bank noted Wednesday that some key economic activity slowed in the first quarter, potentially boosting confidence that it won’t change its stance as investors weigh a mixed stretch of data. Many expect upcoming economic figures to dictate’s the Fed’s next change in rates, a trend that has pushed investors to seek out risk across asset classes.
One of the most recent economic data points troubling some analysts was the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for April, which came in softer than economists had expected Wednesday, signaling a slowdown in factory activity.
Prices of copper, oil and other materials vital for the construction and transportation industries fell, a sign that some investors remain wary of a decline in economic activity or setback in U.S.-China trade talks.
The S&P 500 energy and materials sectors fell about 1% Wednesday, with U.S. crude-oil prices declining after inventory figures showed a larger-than-expected increase in stockpiles last week.
Figures Wednesday also showed the U.S. private sector added 275,000 jobs last month, nearly 100,000 more than consensus expectations. Analysts were looking ahead to Friday’s jobs report for the latest gauge of hiring across the U.S. economy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note also fluctuated and was recently at 2.502%, according to Tradeweb, down from 2.505% a day earlier. Bond yields fall as prices rise and tend to decline when investors are worried about economic growth and seeking safety in ultrasafe Treasurys.
Meanwhile, shares of Apple , CVS Health and Mondelez climbed following the companies’ first-quarter earnings results, the latest example of better-than-feared numbers boosting stocks.
Apple shares climbed 6.6% after the iPhone maker posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit and sales. The company also said a downturn in China showed signs of easing, an encouraging sign for investors still wary of slowing economic activity overseas.
Although Google parent Alphabet tumbled Tuesday following its first-quarter results, Apple joined Amazon.com, Microsoft, Facebook and Twitter in the group of leading internet stocks to rise following earnings reports.
Stock markets in Japan, China, Korea and across most of mainland Europe were shut for the May Day holiday, but with Danish and U.K. stocks trading, the Stoxx Europe 600 inched down less than 0.1%, extending a stretch of quiet trading.
Regards,
Ted
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-point-to-more-records-as-apple-results-cheer-investors-2019-05-01/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-markets-quiet-for-may-day-ahead-of-fed-decision-11556698081
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/stock-futures-rise-on-apple-dollar-yields-dip-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/stock-market-federal-reserve-meeting-outcome-in-focus.html
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-pauses-ahead-of-fed-decision-after-apple-led-rally-idUSKCN1S73R3
U.K.:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/oil-firms-exporters-drag-ftse-100-while-sainsburys-lse-outshine-idUKKCN1S73BP
Europe: (Closed)
Asia: (Limited)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australian-stocks-rise-with-most-asian-markets-closed-for-holiday-2019-04-30/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/us-bonds-federal-reserve-meeting-in-focus.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/forex-market-china-pmi-data-fed-meeting-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/oil-markets-us-stockpiles-global-markets-in-focus.html
Gold
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/gold-markets-equities-the-fed-in-focus.html
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
https://markets.wsj.com/us
Major ETFs % Change:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

IGOV a 5 year annualized return of a negative 0.93%. A ten year annualized return of 1.49%. No one is missing out if they overlooked this one.

Hi Guys,
The data suggests that time in the markets is probably the biggest factor to end of period wealth. Increase the time period and the likelihood of a positive outcome increases from a 50/50 probability to a near 100% probability. Please see this reference for the data:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/11/playing-the-probabilities/
Of course this is only an historical data set. Things might change in the future; count on that happening. But no one knows the future, so these data are a meaningful point of departure when making investment decisions. Good luck to all.
Best Wishes

FYI: Would you be interested in an asset class that has done almost as well as equities over the long term while nevertheless incurring a lot less risk?
Of course you would.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-top-performing-asset-class-youre-probably-overlooking-51556701200

https://news.yahoo.com/7-best-vanguard-funds-retirement-portfolio-173144548.html
7 Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Portfolio
Ellen Chang
Ellen Chang
U.S.News & World ReportApril 30, 2019, 12:31 PM CDT
High-performing Vanguard funds for your 401(k).
Vanguard revolutionized the investing industry with index mutual funds. The company's founder and former CEO, John Bogle, was an avid fan of low expense ratios and passive investing, believing that it democratized investing for individuals, since the majority of active investment managers fail to beat market averages like the S&P 500. Passive investing along with the perception that it yields better returns is gaining in popularity among consumers, says Grant Easterbrook, co-founder of New York-based Dream Forward, which sells 401(k) plans. "Consumers looking for low-cost retirement options ask for Vanguard funds from financial advisors or buy them directly," he says. Here are seven top Vanguard funds for retirement portfolios.

@MFO Members: The more things change, the more thet stay the same !
Regards,
Ted
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/49503/m-u-s-fund-fee-study#latest

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/products/u-s-fund-fees-at-record-lows/
US. fund fees at record lows
Fees fell by 6% from 2017 to 2018
By: IE Staff, Associated PressApril 30, 2019 14:33
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In the U.S., the stock market keeps rising and fees keep falling — in part, because advisors have moved to fee-based.
U.S. investors paid less to own funds last year than ever before: about $48 in expenses for every $10,000 invested, according to a study by Morningstar. It found that the asset-weighted average expense ratio of U.S. open-end mutual funds and ETFs last year was 0.48%, down from 0.51% in 2017 — a 6% drop.