Hey guys,
Is there a way to back-test a funds positions? Let's say I wanted to look at the top 5 positions of a fund and track that against the S&P 500. Any sites that do that? Thanks!

@MFO Members: I have always recommended an emergency funds of six months worth of living expenses.

From the article:
"Most people are familiar with the idea of having an 'emergency fund' during one's working years—a pot of money (typically, equal to three to six months of living expenses) that can help with unexpected bills or, perhaps most important, tide you over if you lose your job."
If a function of emergency cash is to tide you over until you get your next job, how long until your next job in retirement?
Many people seem to conflate two questions: how much cash should I keep for an unexpected emergency, and how much cash should I keep in retirement to protect against sequence of returns risk?.
For example, I was reading an old WSJ column where a couple with adequate pension income asked about putting all their IRA money into an S&P 500 fund. The response was that given the situation, that would not be unreasonable.
The column didn't address what size emergency fund they might also want to keep. ISTM that they would have the same need as working people - a reserve for some unexpected expense that their cash flow (here, pensions) didn't cover.
For people without steady income streams that cover all expenses (i.e. typical retirees), it's a different question as to how much cash to keep. Buffett's 10% short term treasury/90% S&P 500 implicitly suggests 2.5 years of "near cash" (10% @ 4% drawdown/year). I'd be inclined to go a bit higher and/or use bonds as a second tier resource between cash and equity investments.

@hank Hank, your advice is extremely sensible. Sometimes its helpful to remind others about good, solid market strategies that hold up over time.
My issue is related to the last item you just mentioned, RISK TOLERANCE. A lot of investors think they can ride out a bear market (or even just a bad correction). But many of those investors turn out to be wrong. Investing is so emotional for many of us. Its hard to sit by and watch your Account Balance go down the tubes. Its easy to say "oh yeah, I can handle it". Hard to do.
As an official "chicken little", I've (incorrectly) gone to cash more often than I want to admit over the years. Though I am shy of my 50s, I am personally still all about preservation of capital. Combine this president, with his "Tariff policies", alongside a very, very long bull market...... and I am once again a "chicken little". I own some bonds, which also seem inflated but are riding a wave for now, and I will build up my VWINX holding, but I am mostly in CASH.
This time, it looks like I have an awful lot of company. I believe Cash was the best Asset class of 2018. Will it come in 1st again in 2019? Doubtful.
And so we gamble.
P.S. I'll keep at least one of my eyes wide open from now on.

So Hank....just close your eyes and hold on. The market will always be ok long term. Steady as she goes. Tune out the noise. We can't predict the short-term, so why bother.

@JoeD, I wasn’t giving investment advice. Just trying to share a few personal observations and reflections re markets and investor sentiment gleaned over the years - since that’s where @Junkster appeared to want to go with this. (Closing your eyes when moving is probably never a good idea. Might run into an immovable object.)
But here’s my take on risk exposure / market timing:
- Depends on what you’re buying or holding. Treat your equity or high yield stake as one part of a wider investment universe. Don’t overlook investing in a home, maintaining a cash reserve, having a pension or annuity for steady income, investing in your own business or education, etc.
- Depends on your time horizon. For a 25 year-old who won’t need the money for 40 years I think putting 100% in a good global growth fund makes a lot of sense. He / she has time to ride out several market cycles. For a retiree I’d suggest a more conservative approach.
- Depends on your skill set and past experience. Some people have a knack for timing various types of markets. If you’re good at that (only you would know) go for it. However, for most of us, market timing is a somewhat flawed endeavor. The reason may be that markets can remain irrational longer than most of us can remain solvent. Another reason might be that it’s pretty hard to sort out the really pertinent facts from all the noise coming at us from many different directions.
- Depends on your own tolerance for risk. That’s not just your emotional make-up, but also how soon you may need the money and what you intend to do with it. For some of retirement age, an all bonds and cash approach might make sense. It should protect against large or unexpected losses. But it might not protect against rising costs of living or afford the life style one might prefer.

Mama portfolio 25+%cash

Mr. Obvious.

That depends on whether you want to support a fascist or not with your capital:
https://washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/06/25/erdogan/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.40604f7380a4
The question is when does investing in a regime become immoral to each individual investor? Would you own German or Japanese stocks in 1940, even if the return prospects were great? I don't buy the argument that politics or ethics don't matter in investing and that all that should matter is profits. Investors made a conscious choice to divest from South Africa during Apartheid for good reasons. How about a highly profitable manufacturer of Sarin gas or child pornographry? Where does one draw the line? Each must make his own ethical bed and sleep in it. I'm not saying these questions are easy or even have a universal answer, but they should be asked.

So is this economy more Goldilocks ...or..... Alice in Wonderland?

Sounds about right so far YTD. This reminds me of 1995 where bonds of all stripes and colors (both risk on and risk off) and the S@P have been so concurrently strong.
@Hank, great post!

FYI: In 1996, I took a "Money and Banking" seminar from a British professor who had previously worked at the Bank of England. He left me with two abiding lessons. One was that the leading central banks are powerful, but the marketplace, when unified, is stronger yet. (He had been on the receiving end in 1992, when the market's short sellers forced the British government to devalue the pound.) The other related moral was that hyperinflation is just around the corner.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/932511/fixedincome-investing-when-inflation-is-dormant.html

FYI: Should I hold a cash reserve in retirement? If so, how much? And, if you’re willing to share, do you have a cash reserve as part of your retirement savings?
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-cash-should-you-hold-in-retirement-11556805424?mod=article_inline

“Many investors seem braced for turbulence ahead and are in a defensive mode.”
Isn’t that always the case? We as investors tend to focus more on the potential for loss more than on longer term gains. You can go back 5 or 10 years and find people “going to cash”, “harvesting profits” or “adding some dry powder.” - Same old ... Same old ...
“The headline news seems so pessimistic.”
Journalism thrives on the “sensational”. That’s how they attract viewers, readers and clicks on their websites. But it’s not all bear case out there. Maybe we just pay more attention to the bears?
“Inverted yield curve” - Often a precursor of recession. Tends to lead by 6 months to a year. But in an era of “wacko” 2% on 10-year Treasuries, the invert may not be the reliable indicator of the past. Still, ignore it at your own peril.
“crashing oil prices ... “ Perfect example of media over-hype. Oil’s had a great run since it bottomed at $26 three years ago. So a 10% - 20% pullback is normal in any market.
“Chinese tariffs and their negative effects on corporate profits much less what happens if tariffs go in effect on Mexico” A tariff is (plain and simple) a tax - coming out of consumers’ pockets and going into government coffers. And, generally speaking, raising taxes quickly is a good way to tank an economy.
“But stocks remain resilient ...”
The Dow and S&P have gone nowhere in a year. And the NASDAQ is probably lower. But of course there are many winners that bucked the trend.
“junk bonds but 3/4% (0.75%) from all time highs”.
Tight spreads should be a warning that risk appetite is reaching dangerous levels. A better time to buy riskier bonds is when the spread is wider. @Junkster understands this better than I do.
“The later (narrow spreads) especially makes no sense if you believe all the experts who keep predicting the next crisis will come from that segment of the market.” To the contrary ... “reaching for yield“ is sometimes an indication of over-exuberance. Comes with the territory. However, the larger factor here may be the ridiculously low yields on investment grade debt. If you need income, there’s really no place to go but into higher yielding securities.
“rates have moved lower”
True. And 2% for locking-up your money for 10 years makes no sense unless you are factoring in a major economic slowdown and declining value for risk assets.
“the Fed is expected to lower Fed funds in July or September.”
Likely the Fed is reacting to the political arm-twisting. If they lower rates it should goose the economy for a bit longer. But could exacerbate the next downturn when it finally arrives.
“But isn’t that good news already baked into the bond market?”
Yep - The big money (often smart money) is usually a few steps ahead of the rest of us. And the data they have (can afford access to) far exceeds what you and I have at our disposal. Also, while insider trading is illegal, it’s not unheard of.
“I would think knowing how counterintuitive investing/trading can be that new highs may be ahead for the S&P. “
No way to tell. But unless you assume these indexes always reflect rational decision making executed by always rational investors (I don’t think they do) why dwell on where the index will be in six months?
“But this may be all mute with tomorrow’s employment report providing its usual fireworks ....”
You nailed that one. Bloomberg and the others are all over this story.
“... and providing more clarity”.
It’s hard for me to understand how one payroll report provides much clarity on anything. It might. But it might also just reflect the effect of weather on consumer spending in many parts of the country.

Yup - decent fund. Though at 40% leverage, not sure how comfy I'd be throwing $$$ into it ... although I didn't own many leveraged products myself, the GFC was an eye-opener in that respect, at least for me, and I try to keep leverage in my CEF holdings to under 25%.

VMO also pays a 5% tax-free dividend, which is equivalent to an 8% yield for some taxpayers.

VMO also pays a 5% tax-free dividend, which is equivalent to an 8% yield for some taxpayers.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C016-S002-the-right-way-to-think-about-bonds.html
The Right Way to Add Bonds to Your Portfolio
When markets are choppy, bonds add ballast to your portfolio, offering stability no matter what interest rates do.

Per MarketWatch article:
Economists polled by MarketWatch said they expect the U.S. economy to add 185,000 new jobs in May. For junk bonds, a weaker-than-expected jobs reading might just be the tonic the sector needs for a more sustained rally.
“If jobs start to go to 100k or below, it could possibly force the hands of the Fed sooner,” Thanos Bardas, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, told MarketWatch.

Yes sirs.. Read several articles past few yrs Healthcare mostly outperformed Sp500 dji recently but for how long we don't know... Having healevolutions trend may contfor quite long time. I bought schwab Healthcare and owe vht along w mallinkof bonds

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4268396-turkey-now
Tur
Summary
Turkey was the worst performing country ETF of 2018 down -41%. Yet, perhaps counter-intuitively, data suggests this is a good sign.
Turkey is no stranger to being the worst-performing country, but on the 3 occasions it's happened recently, the average subsequent 1-year annual return is 280%.
This strategy is volatile. For example, in 2010, Greece lost -45% only to lose -63% the following year. However, the results of this strategy historically outperform global indices.
Turkey appears to be a strong candidate for robust expected returns in 2019 and beyond driven by a general re-rating of the market from 6x earnings and export-led growth.

@bartab,
MC of course is M*'s designation for FLPSX, also its benchmark, and has been as long as I am aware, I think (did not check).
By market cap I meant (the usual definition) the average size of the companies owned in the portfolio. It is an average and as you indicate parsing the holdings is interesting.
VMWX's benchmark and category are both quite different, so not sure why you would argue, and any MC article, almost, is going to include Tillinghast's long work and history. Indeed, what would be genuinely strange would be not to, and also to include the way younger VMVFX, whose aim nominally is different, per its name (also a GO, fwiw).
Perhaps you can explain, though, how the MFOP Cap Avg $M is given as 36 (>150% of the Vanguard) whereas the M* Avg Market Cap is just under $8M (60% of the Vanguard). I must be misunderstanding something here.
Their Lipper scores oddly are identical except for FLPSX having higher consistency.

Many investors seem braced for turbulence ahead and are in a defensive mode. The headline news seems so pessimistic. Inverted yield curve, crashing oil prices, and the Chinese tariffs and their negative effects on corporate profits much less what happens if tariffs go in effect on Mexico. But stocks remain resilient and junk bonds but 3/4% (0.75%) from all time highs. The later especially makes no sense if you believe all the experts who keep predicting the next crisis will come from that segment of the market. True, rates have moved lower and the Fed is expected to lower Fed funds in July or September. But isn’t that good news already baked into the bond market.
I would think knowing how counterintuitive investing/trading can be that new highs may be ahead for the S&P. But this may be all mute with tomorrow’s employment report providing its usual fireworks and providing more clarity. Holding same funds mentioned last week except have added a junk bond fund and ready to really ramp up there if necessary.

https://www.municipalbonds.com/risk-management/risks-of-municipal-bonds-in-your-portfolio/?utm_source=Municipal+Bonds&utm_campaign=4cbf8ffc7f-ExpTrial_Weekly_Bulletin_Engage_06_06_2019&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d7427882c9-4cbf8ffc7f-48657085&goal=0_d7427882c9-4cbf8ffc7f-48657085
Understanding the Role of Municipal Bonds in Your Portfolio and Potential Risks
Investment%20risks
Municipal Bonds Risk Management
Municipal debt instruments have always played a crucial role in the overall composition of investor portfolios. Many investors gravitate toward muni debt instruments for their triple tax-exempt status (federal, state and local) and knowing that these securities are often backed by strong tax revenue streams.