The leaves are turning crimson and gold in Central Park. On the Upper West Side, surrounding the American Museum of Natural History, are oak trees. They line the pedestrian walkway and are swinging to the rhythm of a light chill wind, marking the beginning of fall in New York. Acorns and dry leaves crunch under our feet. There is a farmer’s market which starts on 81st and Columbus Avenue, continues down to 77th Street, and then wraps around the museum to Central Park West. Varied hot dogs, kababs, and coffee carts line the path where the farmer’s market ends. It’s not your standard Broadway street fair with trinkets; it’s a proper market where locals get their meat and vegetable shopping done for the week. The first stand on Columbus is Continue reading →
Category Archives: Mutual Fund Commentary
Short-Term Market Momentum
The S&P 500 has fallen from 4,598 on July 27th of this year to 4,117 on October 28th for a decline of 10.5%, while yields on the ten-year Treasury have risen from 4.01% to 4.85% for a rise of 20.9%. The Fidelity Intermediate Treasury Bond Index (FUAMX) has had a price decline of 4% during this three-month period. I expected a larger decline in the S&P 500 and a lower rise in yields. Money market yields are hovering around 5%, and “cash is king.”
Economic growth is robust, along with relatively stable employment, while inflation Continue reading →
Fire-and-Forget Gone Wrong: First Foundation Total Return
In the military realm, “fire and forget” designates a weapon that you don’t need to think about once it’s been launched. In investing, “fire and forget” could be used to describe several sorts of mistakes centering on our impulse to look away once we’ve made a decision. One of those mistakes is to buy a fund (presumably for a good reason), then sell it (presumably for a good reason), and then never re-examine your decision.
Managers – both corporate and fund – make mistakes. You can’t avoid it. They can’t. The best of them realize it, learn from it, correct it, and return to doing fine work. After inheriting Continue reading →
Briefly Noted
Updates
Matthews Asia has named Sean Taylor as its incoming chief investment officer, taking over from Robert Horrocks at the start of next year. Taylor was CIO for Asia Pacific and head of emerging markets at DWS and will assume his new role at Matthews on January 1, 2024. Mr. Horrocks, who has been with Matthews Asia since 2008, will retain his portfolio management responsibilities, which include Matthews Asia Dividend and Matthews Asian Growth & Income.
Matthews hired a new CIO, Cooper Abbott, in the summer of 2022. Since then, the firm has undergone Continue reading →
October 1, 2023
Welcome to October, a fierce month!
It’s a month of apple harvests and Atlantic hurricanes (214 of them). Of a temperature roller coaster and of market crashes (1907, 1929, and 1987 – days with the word “Black” attached to their names, stand out). Of bonfires and of Great Fires (Mrs. O’Leary and her cow were framed, I tell ya). Of wars (from the Battle of Hastings in 1066 through the Second World War, October was always seen as your last chance for a quick land grab before wintry weather closed you down for the season) and rumors of wars (the Cuban Missile Crisis which, happily, didn’t trigger a global war in part because of President Kennedy’s familiarity with the political intransigence and misunderstanding that triggered the First World War). Of a thinning wall between the Here and the There and of Continue reading →
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX vs TCAF
I was asked recently what I thought of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) compared to T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF (TCAF), which has gained $235 million in assets under management since its June 2023 launch. TCAF is one of two new T Rowe Price offerings that play off the unparalleled success of the PRWCX, which is closed to new investors. The other new entrant, the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund, has not yet debuted.
The most striking similarities are the name and the fact that they are both managed by David R. Giroux, who has an outstanding record. From here, the similarity fades. PRWCX is a moderate to growth-oriented mixed-asset fund, while TCAF is a predominantly domestic equity fund. There are differences in how the equity sleeve of PRWCX compares to TCAF, which are explored in this article.
Let’s start with Continue reading →
Beyond The Rainbow – A Map to the Good Life in Retirement
This is the last article in a series that describes what I learned in the year following retirement. After fifty years of working, military service, and getting two university degrees, I took the first year as “Me Time”. I once worked with an Australian who was fond of saying that he had his $100 in the bank, meaning that he was financially secure. I have reached the end of the rainbow after decades of investing and financial planning. I just signed up for Social Security, which, combined with pensions, will cover normal spending needs, plus I have my $100 in the bank. Continue reading →
The 25 Year Tempest: Emerging market investing through three cataclysms
Who now remembers Long-Term Capital Management, the failure of genius, the price of hubris, and the lesson that the innocents bear the cost of their elders’ folly?
Too few, judging from investor behavior.
The collapse of LTCM was the first of three global financial crises over the past 25 years that erupted primarily in the developed world, but whose consequences were primarily borne by emerging markets economies and Continue reading →
Funds worth watching for
The Securities and Exchange Commission, by law, gets between 60 and 75 days to review proposed new funds before they can be offered for sale to the public. Each month, we survey actively managed funds and ETFs in the pipeline. Summer’s trickle of new funds becomes autumn’s torrent as advisers rush to have new products on the market by December 31. That’s because a fund launched after that date won’t get to report annual or year-to-date results for 2024, which is a serious marketing problem.
Many new funds, like many existing funds, are bad ideas. (Really, you want the latest “anti-woke” ETF or a new way to invest with Bill Miller’s son?) Most will flounder in rightful obscurity. That said, each month brings some promising options that investors might choose to track.
Two, or perhaps two point five, to add Continue reading →
’Another such victory and I am undone’: The high cost of Pyrrhic victory
Investors and commentators have long bemoaned the catastrophic effects of a zero-interest-rate environment: a disincentive to save, distorted capital allocations, excessive risk-taking, and inflated equity prices. In winning the fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve has given investors the victory they sought: interest rates high enough to encourage saving and penalize speculation. Our question, suggested by King Pyrruhs’ catastrophic victories in 279 BCE, is: can investors survive their victory? Continue reading →
Briefly Noted . . .
One of the two managers at Akre Focus (AKREX), Chris Cerrone, has resigned. Effective September 27, 2023, John Neff is listed as the sole manager of the consistently excellent, $13 billion large-growth fund. The fund has seen steady performance, but also steady outflows, since the retirement of founder Chuck Akre. Morningstar has placed the fund “under review,” which is certainly sensible and appropriate. That said, Mr. Neff has been co-managing the strategy since 2014. The portfolio holds fewer than 20 stocks, and the historic turnover ratio is 1%. The fund has trailed its large-growth peers on two occasions (2020 and 2023). In both cases, the market was narrow and frothy, and the fund produced entirely respectable absolute returns (20% and 10% YTD) for its investors. We do not believe that’s any immediate cause for concern.
Keith Long, co-founder Continue reading →
September 1, 2023
Dear friends,
Welcome to the end of the summer. And to the beginning of … the weakest month of the year for the stock market, with an average monthly loss of about 0.7%. And the threshold of the most volatile month of the year, October, which sees an intramonth movement of 8.3%; that is, since 1928, the record says that your portfolio will bounce 8.3% in October (but only 5.2% in February). My inbox overflows with apocalyptic forecasts and also of celebrations of The New Bull. Recognizing that it’s all bull of a sort, I move on.
Augustana welcomes the largest first-year class in its 163-year history, materially (and disconcertingly) fed by the Augustana Possible scholarships that Continue reading →
In Conversation with Rakesh Bordia, Portfolio Manager of the Pzena Emerging Markets Value Fund (PZIEX/PZVEX)
Rakesh Bordia co-manages Pzena Emerging Markets Value Fund (“the fund”) with tenured co-managers Caroline Cai, Allison Fisch, and (recently added) Akhil Subramanian. The strategy has approximately $1.35 billion under management and has been around just since 2014. Investing in emerging markets has been no cakewalk for this window. The passive Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO), over the past 15 years, has earned just south of 3% annualized.
Pzena EM Value Fund has earned just north of 4% a year since its inception. The interesting Continue reading →
Evaluating Tax-Exempt Funds
With yields at high levels and inflation falling, I sold a poor-performing stock to buy two Tax-Exempt bond funds. In this article, I look at municipal money market and bond funds for tax-efficient accounts. I began this search by looking at funds that are available at Fidelity or Vanguard with no transaction fees. I further based the selection on both longer and shorter performance relative to peers, Fund Family Rating, Fidelity Fund Picks, and Morningstar Ratings among other factors.
This article is Continue reading →
Notable Young ETFs
Younger funds often excel due to technical advantages, innovation, and/or management. For this article, I sifted through over a thousand actively managed Exchange Traded Funds to find thirty-three funds that are less than five years old and have performed better than their peers over their respective lives. Are these Continue reading →
Briefly Noted . . .
The AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF underwent a 1-5 reverse stock split on or about August 14.
The Champlain Strategic Focus Fund is in registration. The fund invests primarily in securities of mid- to large-capitalization companies. Annual fund expenses will be 1.10% for the advisor share class and 0.85% for the institutional share class. The fund will utilize several portfolio managers with Champlain Investment Partners, LLC.
The GMO U.S. Quality ETF is in registration. Expenses have not Continue reading →
August 2023
Dear friends,
Thanks so much for your patience. Chip and I spent a couple of weeks in the Scottish Highlands and Shetland Islands, and we knew in advance that that would slightly delay our August launch. Little did we understand the depth of Scottish generosity, as our hosts shared a case of COVID with us as we left the country. (It felt just like 2021 again!) The illness left us completely drained and endlessly exhausted, respectively. But we’ve now rallied and are delighted to share August with you. Continue reading →
The Unfortunate Manager, the Ill-timed Bus, and You
On June 23, 2023, Robert B. Bruce (1931-2023) passed away. It diminishes a rich life and generous soul to describe him merely as “one of the portfolio managers of the Bruce Fund.” A Wisconsin graduate, he had a long-time friendship with Ab Nicholas, another renowned investor, and namesake of the Nicholas Fund, with whom he created an endowment for Wisconsin athletics. His obituary celebrates “a model of hard work, generosity, and unpretentious success” who passed away “in the embrace of his family.” From 1965-1972, Bob helped manage the Mathers Fund (MATRX) to phenomenal success, then set out on his own in 1972. He eventually purchased a small mutual fund in 1983, brought on his eldest son, Jeff, as partner and co-manager, and crafted a 40-year record of distinction and success. Continue reading →
Okay, perhaps a Third Cheer as a Veteran Manager Returns to the Field
(Original essay from FundAlarm, Jan. 2010, revised August 2023)
Have you ever wondered what it would be like to win The Jackpot? The Big One. The one that pays tens of millions? Mike Fasciano knows, and based on his experience, you might want to steer clear of the opportunity. I’ve followed Mike’s career for 25 years now – ever since the days when I maintained “The List of Funds for Small Investors” for the old Brill/Mutual Funds Interactive site, one of the most prominent and well-respected online communities of mutual fund investors in the 1990s. It was a collection of good no-load funds that an investor with fifty bucks and a bit of discipline could get into. Early on, something called Fasciano Fund (FASCX) became a centerpiece of the “small core” fund grouping. Tiny but mighty, it posted a series of strong, steady performances. The December relaunch of Fasciano’s fund gave me an excuse to call and speak with him at his Chicago office.
I’ll divide the story into four sections.
Act One: Small but Mighty. Fasciano launched his fund in August 1987 with a million dollars raised by friends and family. His plan was to invest in small companies that shared several important characteristics: they were well-managed, they generated substantial free cash flow, and they avoided going deeply into debt. That combination meant that the companies could finance their own growth with their own money – which cuts way back on the silly empire-building that occurs when you’re using someone else’s money — and it decoupled the firms’ fate from the whims of banks and bonds. The fund grew slowly and steadily over its first decade, posting consistently strong returns with consistently below-market risks. By 1997, the fund held a modest $56 million in assets. And then he won the damned lottery.
Act Two: The Perils of Prosperity. Leah Modigliani, strategist at Morgan Stanley, is the co-creator (with her Nobel prize-winning grandfather) of the M-squared metric, which allows for a more accurate assessment of risk-adjusted investment performance. In late 1998, she completed a study of 82 small cap funds. That study, which was picked up by The Wall Street Journal, named Fasciano Fund as the decade’s best small cap fund. Modigliani found that Fasciano Fund produced an average return of 17.6% per year over the previous ten years, compared with 11.2% for the Russell 2000 Index. Even without the risk adjustment, Fasciano outpaced 95% of his peers over the decade. Two months later, Money magazine published “Six Funds You Need Now,” which concluded, “few managers have been more adept at weighing risk and reward than Michael Fasciano.”
All of which opened the floodgates. Mr. Fasciano reports that by mid-1999, he had $450 million under management. And that half of that money then “left as fast as it came.” That rush in and out corresponded with a market increasingly frothy and hostile to conservative investing. Fasciano had friends at Neuberger-Berman, then a storied no-load fund firm and investment advisor founded in the 1930s. It was, he reports, “a place with a wonderful culture and history” where the legendary Roy Neuberger still dropped by from time to time.
In March 2001, he became an employee of Neuberger, and Fasciano Fund became Neuberger-Berman Fasciano. At peak, he was managing about $2 billion in assets. That happy partnership was disrupted by two developments that no one could foresee:
- “Careful” stopped working as well as it had. Fasciano’s discipline led him to companies that did not borrow wildly, did not attract venture capitalists, and did not celebrate debt. The easy availability of money in the 2000s made that discipline (temporarily) irrelevant, and the fund lagged its peers and benchmark. At the same time, it did maintain consistently low levels of risk, which were the hallmark of its first decade.
- Lehman Brothers bought Neuberger. Supported by the same debt-happy culture that affected small cap investing, Lehman acquired Neuberger in 2003, bringing with it sales loads and a trader’s mindset. Funds kept flowing in even as Lehman’s own finances, driven by its earlier embrace of sub-prime mortgages, deteriorated. In 2008, Lehman ordered a new set of expense reductions and ordered a wave of layoffs – 10% of the workforce – across its empire. Despite a top percentile performance in early 2008 and a $1.0 billion portfolio, Mr. Fasciano was “right-sized” with 1500 of his colleagues. By July, rumors were floating that Lehman was in line to be purchased by South Korean investors. By August, NB-Fasciano was merged into NB Genesis amidst rumors that Lehman was trying to sell Neuberger to raise cash. A month later, Lehman itself filed for bankruptcy.
Intervallo. Mr. Fasciano had no doubt about his next steps following his separation from Neuberger Berman. He was going back into the fund business as an independent and back to the discipline of building his fund one position – and one new investor – at a time. He filed registration papers with the SEC for FascianoFunds Small Cap. Then, as the market downturn morphed into a blind panic, decided to stay on the sidelines a bit. In the following year, he “did some things to remind me of life beyond small cap stocks.” He took up the discipline of black-and-white photography and embraced the need to spend a lot of time seeing the different grays that lie between those two poles. He took Italian language immersion training and achieved a B-2 level of proficiency (“Can interact with a degree of fluency and spontaneity that makes regular interaction with native speakers quite possible without strain for either party” – a level I haven’t yet achieved even in English), which was followed by two months spent visiting his family’s native land.
Act Three: Renaissance. On December 22, 2009, Mike returned to the field with the launch of Aston/Fasciano Small Cap (AFASX). He counted on the Aston organization to provide him with essential sales and back-office support so that he could concentrate on the portfolio itself. Aston’s recent acquisition by AMG – the Affiliated Managers Group – buoyed his spirit still further since AMG had a great record of nurturing and supporting its affiliated fund families (think “Third Avenue Value”) and had the financial heft to make important contributions to the funds.
And so he began again, “rebuilding relationships with individual investors” and “sticking with the discipline” of buying the stocks of well-managed, fiscally-responsible companies in pursuit of “consistently good” – if rarely spectacular – results for the folks who had entrusted their investments to him. In some ways, he’s a million miles away from the 1987 start-up with its 20 investors. In some ways, he’s come home again.
The Curtain Falls. Michael Fasciano decided in October 2010 to liquidate the new Aston/Fasciano SmallCap Fund (AFASX). Mike explained it as a matter of simple economics: despite respectable returns in its first three-quarters of operation, Aston was able to attract very little interest in the fund. Under the terms of his operating agreement, Mike had to underwrite half the cost of operating AFASX. Facing a substantial capital outflow and no evidence that assets would be growing quickly, he made the sensible, sad, and painful decision to pull the plug. The fund ends its short life having made a profit for its investors, a continuation of a quarter-century tradition of which Mike is justifiably proud.
Exactly one year after launch, having drawn just over $2 million in assets and burdened by a 15% expense ratio, Aston/Fasciano was liquidated. Since then, Michael has managed Fasciano Associates LLC from his home in lovely Lake Forest, Illinois, and has mostly kept out of the public eye.
Life is, indeed, a work in progress.
Looking Ahead with Vanguard
Vanguard’s clients have grown from about 20 million with $3.8 billion in assets in 2016 to 30 million now with nearly $8 billion in assets. Vanguard is the world’s largest mutual fund company with more market share of mutual funds than the next three competitors combined. For this article, I read Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets from the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business by Charles D. Ellis, a longtime director of Vanguard. I want to know Continue reading →