Author Archives: David Snowball

About David Snowball

David Snowball, PhD (Massachusetts). Cofounder, lead writer. David is a Professor of Communication Studies at Augustana College, Rock Island, Illinois, a nationally-recognized college of the liberal arts and sciences, founded in 1860. For a quarter century, David competed in academic debate and coached college debate teams to over 1500 individual victories and 50 tournament championships. When he retired from that research-intensive endeavor, his interest turned to researching fund investing and fund communication strategies. He served as the closing moderator of Brill’s Mutual Funds Interactive (a Forbes “Best of the Web” site), was the Senior Fund Analyst at FundAlarm and author of over 120 fund profiles.

Firms with 100% 10-year Success Rates

By David Snowball

Firms with 100% 5- and 10-Year Success Ratios

No liquidations, no mergers, and 100% of funds posted above-average returns. Of the 68 firms with a 100% 10-year success rate, 41 also have a perfect five-year record.

  Firm Success Ratio 10-Year Firm Success Ratio 5-Year # of funds
Appleseed 100 100 1
Auer 100 100 1
Bretton Fund 100 100 1
Caldwell & Orkin 100 100 1
Cantor Fitzgerald 100 100 2
Changing Parameters 100 100 1
Channel Investment Partners 100 100 1
Clark Fork 100 100 1
Cook & Bynum Capital 100 100 1
Disciplined Growth Investors (DGI) 100 100 1
Dodge & Cox 100 100 6
Equity Investment 100 100 1
First Foundation 100 100 2
Freedom 100 100 1
Hamlin Capital Management 100 100 1
Hillman 100 100 1
Hood River Capital Management 100 100 1
Investment House 100 100 1
Ironclad Funds 100 100 1
Kopernik 100 100 2
Lyrical Partners 100 100 1
MainGate Funds 100 100 1
Matisse Funds 100 100 1
Meehan Focus 100 100 1
Moncapfund 100 100 1
Needham 100 100 3
New Alternatives 100 100 1
OCM 100 100 1
Otter Creek 100 100 1
Payson 100 100 1
Performance Trust Asset Management 100 100 3
Port Street Investments 100 100 1
Private Capital Management 100 100 1
Seafarer 100 100 1
Smead 100 100 2
Sound Shore 100 100 1
Sparrow 100 100 1
Stringer Asset Management 100 100 1
Teberg 100 100 1
Terra Firma Asset Management 100 100 1
Vericimetry 100 100 1

Firms with 100% 10-year success rates, but slippage over the past five years

Inevitably some of the 10-year winners have tailed off more recently. It’s reassuring that only 17 of 68 funds (25%) have tailed off badly, with fewer than half of their 10-year funds still thriving.

  Firm Success Ratio 10-Year Firm Success Ratio 5-Year
Fuller & Thaler 100 83
WCM Investment Management 100 75
Bridge Builder 100 75
Grandeur Peak 100 71
Trillium 100 50
Prospector 100 50
Medalist Partner 100 50
Jensen 100 50
Campbell & Company 100 33
Oakhurst 100 25
Swan Wealth Advisors 100 20
YCG FUNDS 100 0
Reaves 100 0
Polen Capital 100 0
Polaris Capital Management 100 0
MP 63 100 0
MAI 100 0
Long Short 100 0
Lisanti Capital Growth 100 0
JAG Capital Management 100 0
EIP Funds 100 0
Edgewood 100 0
Copley 100 0
Conestoga 100 0
Clifford Capital 100 0
BBW Capital 100 0
Akre 100 0

 

The Most Consistent Winners, 2013-2024

By David Snowball

Our colleague Devesh Shah has been in search of a reason to have any direct international exposure. That is, for an answer to the question, “Why should I invest one cent in an international equity fund?” He notes that the default for many endowment portfolios is 18% international, but that – over the course of the 21st century so far – the actual efficient frontier portfolio held only 5% international equity.

International stocks are 40% of the total global capitalization. They are Continue reading →

June 1, 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

It’s been a whirlwind month for us. In just about 30 days, I got married (waves to Chip!), finished my 68th trip around the big ball o’ fire in the sky, bade farewell to my 40th group of seniors (just a heads up, world. They’re coming for you!), visited with the managers from FPA (really, if you put Mr. Scruggs in a cardigan he’d totally rock the Mr. Rogers’ look), watched the Dow hit 40,000 and visited my brothers and sisters in Pittsburgh for the first time in two years.

Continue reading →

To Augustana’s class of 2024: money is not your master

By David Snowball

Hi, guys.

You made it. You survived Covid and being kicked off campus midway through spring of your freshman year. You survived a year of Zoom. You survived that weird casserole the dining commons kept serving. You survived me. And, at the end of it, you were standing together, laughing and glowing. We’re incredibly proud of you and hopeful for the good you can do in the world.

I’ve never aspired to deliver a “last lecture” for graduates, but you might consider Continue reading →

FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value (QRSVX)

By David Snowball

Objective and strategy

The fund seeks capital appreciation by investing in the stocks or preferred shares of U.S. small-cap companies. The manager pursues a sort of “quality value” strategy: he seeks high-quality firms (strong balance sheets and strong management teams) whose stocks are undervalued (based, initially, on price/earnings and price-to-cash flow metrics). Because it is willing to hold companies as their market cap rises, the portfolio has about 9% invested in mid-cap stocks that it bought when they were small caps.

In general the portfolio holds Continue reading →

May 1, 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the May issue of Mutual Fund Observer. We’re glad you’re here.

May marks the end of my 40th year of teaching at Augustana College. (And no, they’re not free of me yet. I’m back again in the fall!) It’s an amazing place that has grown a lot over the course of my career. We were founded in 1860 by educated immigrant parents who were anxious to preserve the traditions of their (Scandinavian) homelands while Continue reading →

GQG Global Quality Dividend (GQFPX / GQFIX)

By David Snowball

Objective and strategy

The strategy is to assemble a portfolio of 35-70 stocks. The target universe is high-quality, dividend-paying securities of U.S. and non-U.S. companies, including those in emerging market countries. GQG Partners primarily relies on fundamental, rather than quantitative, research to evaluate each business based on financial strength, sustainability of earnings growth, and quality of management. The investment strategy is quality first; from the pool of firms that meet its Continue reading →

The Quality Anomaly

By David Snowball

There’s so much we can’t explain:

What’s the universe made of? (Hint: it doesn’t actually seem to be “matter and energy”)

What lives in the ocean’s “twilight zone”? (“It’s remote. It’s deep. It’s dark. It’s elusive. It’s temperamental,” according to Woods Hole … perhaps the most mysterious and vital space on the planet)

What killed Venus? (The planet, not the goddess. Best guess is that it Continue reading →

April 1, 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

It’s April. I spent much of the Easter weekend wearing a t-shirt out to work in the gardens. It was glorious. Today, the forecast is for hail. Tomorrow? Snow.

Next week? Oh, I don’t know … dragon fire?

And still, it behooves us to be grateful for what we have. The world’s most corrosive force is not greed. It’s envy, which is driven by the sense that what we have just isn’t enough, and bitterness that others have more. That’s a theme that Charlie Munger reflected on repeatedly: “I have conquered envy in my own life. I don’t Continue reading →

March 1, 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

In like a lion, out like a lamb? The Total Stock Market Index has risen 12% in the past three months, as has the S&P 500. Nvidia stock is up 76% in the same period while semiconductor stocks inched up … 48%.

The thermometer in Davenport today topped 76 degrees, just a bit warm for a late winter day. We heard that participants in the March 1st Polar Plunges at locations across the upper Midwest had to be Continue reading →

We breathe rarified air

By David Snowball

As we go to press, the S&P 500 is at its highest level in history: 5137. It set a record by passing 5000 for the first time on February 12, then another record high of 5100 two weeks later.

In reality, of course, the S&P is not rocketing upward. The S&P 7-to-10 is, with the other 490-493 stocks as an afterthought. The top 10 stocks contributed 93% of the index’s 2023 gains. Goldman Sachs declares that the “S&P 500 index is more concentrated than it has ever been,” while Amundi, Europe’s largest Continue reading →

February 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

February is a fraught month, historically. For Romans, it once did not exist. And then it did, as the last month of the year, with the new year beginning when the crops were first sewn and all eyes looked to the future. Februalia, the festival of purification, was the last chance to put the misdeeds of the past behind us and to be prepared to build a future upon a solid foundation.

It’s also the month in which Augustana launches its Spring semester; as I ponder the snow piles on campus, I could imagine a more Continue reading →

Financial Discoveries: 10 Cool Things I Learned in January

By David Snowball

College professors are, quintessentially, learning machines. Give us 15 minutes of peace, and we’ll sink happily into piles of data, stacks of books, beckoning journal articles, or quiet processing.

And the reality of the matter is that almost no one gives anyone 15 minutes of peace these days.

Why 15 minutes? Read Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience (2008). Flow is a state of complete immersion in a project, and it seems to take us 15 minutes or so to get in the flow. Every “do you have just a minute?” kicks us back out and costs us another 15 minutes to get back.

Augustana’s January Term is Continue reading →

Snowball’s Indolent Portfolio, 2023

By David Snowball

Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.

I’ve heard Warren say a half a dozen times, “It’s not greed that drives the world, but envy.”

Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?

Charles Thomas Munger (1924-2023)

Each year I share Continue reading →

Touchdowns and Turnovers: MFO’s All-Star Picks for the Best US Equity Funds of 2023

By David Snowball

Touchdowns and Turnovers: MFO’s All-Star Picks for the Best US Equity Funds of 2023

Who will be the NFL MVP? The money is on Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, declared “undeniably one of the most electric players in the league.” The 27-year-old had a passer rating of 102.7 with 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and played in all 16 games. He was magical. (At least until he faced the Steelers against whom he sports a 1-3 record or got to the playoffs.) For his accomplishments, he earned Continue reading →

January 1, 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the January issue of Mutual Fund Observer.

January was named after Janus, the tutelary deity of the year’s first month. As tutelary, he was guardian, patron, and protector. Absent from the Greek pantheon, Janus was the Roman god of beginnings, transitions, and endings. It was the “transitions” part that led Romans to place the two-faced god near entries and passageways, where he oversaw their comings and Continue reading →

Celebrating the ongoing triumph of ESG investing

By David Snowball

James Mackintosh, who has always been adamantly skeptical of ESG/SRI/green investing (though less loudly opposed to anti-woke/red investing, perhaps because it’s so marginal), offered a nice analysis (“Green Investors Were Crushed. Now It’s Time to Make Money,” WSJ.com, 12/5/2023) of the declining popularity of ESG investing in 2023 and the challenges facing certain green energy firms.

“Invest according to your political views,” he begins, “and you’re Continue reading →

Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (BLNDX / REMIX)

By David Snowball

Objective and strategy

The Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund seeks positive absolute returns through an “All-Weather strategy.” The fund holds a global equity portfolio built from regional equity ETFs. The strategy also invests, both long and short, in exchange traded futures contracts from seven sectors: equity indexes, currencies, interest rates, metals, grains, soft commodities, and energy. The managers attempt to participate in medium- to long-term trends in global futures markets and to produce a reasonable return premium in Continue reading →

Elevator Talk: Jeff Wrona, One Rock Fund (ONERX)

By David Snowball

Since the number of funds we can cover in-depth is smaller than the number of funds worthy of in-depth coverage, we’ve decided to offer one or two managers each month the opportunity to make a 300-word pitch to you. That’s about the number of words a slightly manic elevator companion could share in a minute and a half. In each case, I’ve promised to offer a quick capsule of the fund and a link back to the fund’s site. Other than that, they’ve got 200 words and precisely as much of your time and attention as you’re willing to share. These aren’t endorsements; they’re opportunities to learn more. 

One Rock Fund (ONERX) launched on Continue reading →