Dear friends,
Welcome to the December Mutual Fund Observer, and to the holiday season.
The Christmas of the early American republic would be barely recognizable to us. In many colonies, it was a workday, ignored or mistrusted; only some immigrant communities treated it as a true festival. You’ll remember the Christmas of Continue reading →
Setting aside uncertainty this year over tariffs, affordability, a slowing economy, high stock market valuations, and government shutdowns, this article is focused on the long-term risk of the next financial crisis. I am not worried about a gloom and doom scenario. I do want to have a portion of my overall portfolio prepared for another financial crisis or currency devaluation, whether it is associated with the next bear market or one after that.
This Time Is Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009) by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff covers debt cycles and financial crises: Continue reading →
MFO’s founding mission is to “write for the benefit of intellectually curious, serious investors— managers, advisers, and individuals—who need to go beyond marketing fluff, beyond computer-generated recommendations and beyond Morningstar’s coverage universe.” But one of our core precepts is “80% of all existing funds could disappear today with no loss to anyone, except possibly the managers who have to explain it to their spouses.” The goodriddance group includes two overlapping sorts of idiocy: (1) many are launched Continue reading →
On October 1, 2025, GMO launched the GMO Domestic Resilience ETF (DRES), bringing the firm’s time-tested quality-focused investment discipline to a distinctly contemporary challenge: identifying companies positioned to benefit as manufacturing, defense production, and critical supply chains return to U.S. soil. DRES represents GMO’s bet that reshoring and nearshoring—the movement of production capacity back onshore or to nearby allies—constitutes more than political theater or a temporary supply-chain correction. The fund targets sectors at the heart of this shift: Continue reading →
On September 24, 2025, MFS Investment Management launched the MFS Active Mid Cap ETF (MMID), bringing one of the firm’s most seasoned mid-cap strategies into the ETF wrapper. The fund represents a straightforward translation of MFS Mid Cap Value – a strategy portfolio manager Kevin Schmitz has managed since 2008 – into a more tax-efficient and accessible structure. What distinguishes MMID is not novelty but pedigree: a 17-year track record, a manager who joined MFS as an equity analyst in 2002 and has spent more than Continue reading →
I just finished reading Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order – Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio. Mr. Dalio states:
“Dealing with the future is all about 1) perceiving and adapting to what is happening, even if it can’t be anticipated; 2) coming up with probabilities for what might happen; and 3) knowing enough about what might happen to protect oneself against the unacceptable, even if one can’t do that perfectly.”
I recently spent a weekend in the historic mining town Continue reading →
On November 10th, Tiffany Hsiao rejoined Matthews Asia after leaving the firm in August 2020 to join Artisan Partners to launch a China-focused private fund. Prior to her departure, Tiffany managed the firm’s China Small Companies, former Asia Small Companies (now Emerging Markets Small Companies), and Asia Innovators strategies.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission cleared the way for Dimensional Fund Advisors to Continue reading →
Welcome, dear friends.
Welcome to autumn. The apples are in, the trees are changing, flurries threaten – four of my students have never seen snow except at the movies – and, at long last, summer’s wardrobe has been laid to its rest. The clocks “fell back” as I was writing this essay, offering me a bonus hour in my day. Hesitant, as ever, to be wasteful, I resolved to spend my gifted hour thinking Interesting Thoughts.
Warren Buffett has more Continue reading →
In the buttoned-down world of institutional asset management, T Rowe Price has long been the firm that makes boring look brilliant. While competitors chased hot trends and flashy returns, the Baltimore-based firm built its reputation as the quintessential “singles hitter,” compounding modest, steady gains into industry-leading long-term performance through disciplined, research-driven processes.
Which makes the 87-year-old firm’s October 2025 filing Continue reading →
In this topsy-turvy world, characterized by unprecedented tariffs, rapidly changing policies, spending cuts, geopolitical risk, high deficits, and elevated valuations, I tend to be more conservative. I have added toggles to my “Rate and Rank” spreadsheet, allowing me to evaluate funds through the lenses of “Risk Off” and “Yield” for a conservative, tax-advantaged account. Table #1 shows how I rank sector Lipper Categories from highest-ranked category to lowest, along with the highest-ranked five funds. Some sectors are in Continue reading →
Using historical data on funds to make assumptions about future performance involves correctly interpreting the trends. Over the past six years, the U.S. has experienced an extraordinarily unusual period:
On October 13, 2025, GMO launched its newest ETF, GMO Dynamic Allocation ETF (GMOD). The ETF is managed by Co-Heads of Asset Allocation Ben Inker and John Thorndike, and draws on GMO’s proprietary 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts. It will typically range between 40% and 80% equity exposure and can invest broadly across stocks and bonds, not limited by sector, market cap, credit quality, or geography.
This would be an interesting but distinctly contrarian operation. The key is that GMO has a strong and well-founded belief that Continue reading →
Welcome to the casino! GraniteShares 3x Short AMD Daily ETP, a product marketed for European investors, recently pulled off the rare feat of going to zero. The fund, purely a speculator’s trading vehicle, was designed to rise by 3% for every 1% that AMD stock fell. Perfect opp for experienced sharks to dart in, tear off a chunk of carcass, and get out before anything bad can happen. Think of a holding time that might be measured in seconds, and you’re there.
The fund imploded when Continue reading →
Dear friends,
Welcome to the October issue of the Mutual Fund Observer. We’re glad you’re here.
And welcome to the Dog Days of Autumn! The natural world is scrambling to keep up with the changes we’ve triggered, and continue to intensify, upon it. As I walked one of the many bike/hike trails in the Quad Cities on Sunday, I confronted two worlds. One was defined by 90-degree temperatures, hot sunshine, and cracked earth. The other by the rhythm of birds called southward and plants quietening for the season to Continue reading →
On September 10, 2025, Tweedy, Browne Company LLC, launched the International Insider + Value ETF (ICPY). The ETF is both actively managed and fully transparent, which might engender some risk (for example, front-running by high-speed traders) but also simplifies the structure and reduces complexity.
The managers have the freedom to create an all-cap, all-world portfolio that can invest in developed and developing markets and, to a limited extent, in the US. The plan is simple Continue reading →
I am well on my way to implementing my version of the all-weather portfolio, where some funds will perform well in any environment. This conservative retirement portfolio is a subset of my overall portfolio and fits into tax-advantaged accounts within the intermediate bucket, along with several traditional bond funds and bond ladders. The goal for this “basket” of funds is to have income that meets most withdrawal needs with some Continue reading →
On September 12, 2025, Research Affiliates launched the RACWI US ETF, which will track its proprietary RACWI US Index. This is just RA’s second directly managed fund, following Research Affiliates Deletions ETF (NIXT), which launched in September 2024 and targets the stocks dropped from traditional large- to mid-cap indexes.
Research Affiliates, founded in 2002 by Rob Arnott, is a Newport Beach–based investment firm recognized for Continue reading →
Gold is considered one of the best hedges against inflation and uncertainty. Gold fell from about $385 in 1995 to a low of around $250 by 2001, to a high of $1,750 in 2011 before falling to $1060 in 2015. It is now over $3,750. For the past ten years, iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has had a total return of 195% compared to 289% for Vanguard 500 Index ETF (VOO). In this article, I compare funds with lower volatility than stocks and gold to protect from inflation. Preparing for inflation should be part of an overall strategy and not just timing the market when inflation rises.
Most of my career was in the precious metals industry Continue reading →
In January 2025, the Militia Long Short Equity ETF (ticker: ORR) launched. We’re profiling it because Sam Lee strongly recommended we look at it, and we trust Sam Lee. Founder of Austin-based SVRN Asset Management, former Morningstar strategist and editor of ETFInvestor newsletter and MFO contributor, Sam is very smart, has assessed a lot of managers, and has never invested in a hedge fund before. He describes Continue reading →
The conversion of Akre Focus Fund into an ETF was authorized by its investors in September and is proceeding apace. Thanks to all who took the time to vote their shares!
On October 17, abrdn International Small Cap fund and the $36m abrdn Intermediate Municipal Income fund will become the abrdn International Small Cap Active ETF and the abrdn Ultra Short Municipal Income Active ETF, respectively. Continue reading →
