Dear friends,

We’ve been listening to REM’s “It’s the End of the World (as we know it)” and thinking about copyrighting some useful terms for the year ahead.  You know that Bondpocalypse and Bondmageddon are both getting programmed into the pundits’ vocabulary.  Chip suggests Bondtastrophe and Bondaster.  

Bad asset classes (say, TIPs and long bonds) might be merged in the Frankenfund.  Members of the Observer’s discussion board offered bond doggle (thanks, Bee!), the Bondfire of the Vanities (Shostakovich’s entry and probably our most popular), the New Fed (which Hank thinks we’ll be hearing by year’s end) which might continue the racetodebase (Rono) and bondacious (presumably blondes, Accipiter’s best).  Given that snowstorms now get their own names (on the way to Pittsburgh, my son and I drove through the aftermath of Euclid), perhaps market panics, too?  We’d start of course with Market Crisis Alan, in honor of The Maestro, but we haven’t decided whether that would rightly be followed by Market Crisis Ben, Barack or Boehner.  Hopeful that they couldn’t do it again, we could honor them all with Crash B3 which might defame the good work done by vitamin B3 in regulating sex and stress.

Feel free to join in on the 2013 Word of the Year thread, if only if figure out how Daisy Duke got there.

The Big Bond Bubble Boomnanza?

I’m most nervous when lots of other folks seem to agree with me.  It’s usually a sign that I’ve overlooked something.

I’ve been suggesting for quite a while now that the bond market, as a whole, might be in a particularly parlous position.   Within the living memory of almost the entire investing community, investing in bonds has been a surefire way to boost your portfolio.  Since 1981, the bond market has enjoyed a 31-year bull market.  What too many investors forget is that 1981 was preceded by a 35-year year bear market for bonds.  The question is: are we at or near another turning point?

The number of people reaching that conclusion is growing rapidly.  Floyd Norris of The New York Times wrote on December 28^th: “A new bear market almost certainly has begun” (Reading Pessimism in the Market for Bonds).  The Wall Street Journal headlined the warning, “Danger Lurks Inside the Bond Boom amid Corporate-Borrowing Bonanza, Some Money Managers Warn of Little Room Left for Gains” (12/06/2012).  Separately, the Journal warned of “a rude awakening” for complacent bond investors (12/24/2012).  Barron’s warns of a “Fed-inflated bond bubble” (12/17/2012). Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio claims that “The biggest opportunity [in 2013] will be – and it isn’t imminent – shorting bond markets around the world” (our friends at LearnBonds.com have a really good page of links to commentaries on the bond market, on which this is found).

I weighed in on the topic in a column I wrote for Amazon’s Money and Markets page.  The column, entitled “Trees Do Not Grow to the Sky,” begins:

You thought the fallout from 2000-01 was bad?  You thought the 2008 market seizure provoked anguish?  That’s nothing, compared to what will happen when every grandparent in America cries out, as one, “we’ve been ruined.”

In the past five years, investors have purchased one trillion dollars’ worth of bond mutual fund shares ($1.069 trillion, as of 11/20/12, if you want to be picky) while selling a half trillion in stock funds ($503 billion).

Money has flowed into bond mutual funds in 53 of the past 60 weeks (and out of stock funds in 46 of 60 weeks).

Investors have relentlessly bid up the price of bonds for 30 years so they’ve reached the point where they’re priced to return less than nothing for the next decade.

Morningstar adds that about three-quarters of that money went to actively-managed bond funds, a singularly poor bet in most instances.

I included a spiffy graph and then reported on the actions of lots of the country’s best bond investors.  You might want to take a quick scan of their activities.  It’s fairly sobering.

Among my conclusions:  

Act now, not later. “Act” is not investment advice, it’s communication advice.  Start talking with your spouse, financial adviser, fund manager, and other investors online, about how they’ve thought about the sorts of information I’ve shared and how they’ve reacted to it.  Learn, reflect, then act.

We’re not qualified to offer investment advice and we’re not saying that you should be abandoning the bond market. As we said to Charles, one of our regular readers,

I’m very sensitive to the need for income in a portfolio, for risk management and for diversification so leaving fixed-income altogether strikes me as silly and unmanageable.  The key might be to identify the risks your exposing yourself to and the available rewards.  In general, I think folks are most skeptical of long-term sovereign debt issued by governments that are … well, broke.  Such bonds have the greatest interest rate sensitivity and then to be badly overpriced because they’ve been “the safe haven” in so many panics.  

So I’d at the very least look to diversify my income sources and to work with managers who are not locked into very narrow niches. 

MFWire: Stock Fund Flows Are Turning Around

MF Wire recently announced “Stock Funds Turn Around” (December 28, 2012), which might also be titled “Investors continue retreat from U.S. stock funds.” In the last full week of 2012, investors pulled $750 million from US stock funds and added $1.25 billion into international ones.

Forbes: Buy Bonds, Sleep Well

Our take might be, Observer: buy bonds, sleep with the fishes.  On December 19^th, Forbes published 5 Mutual Funds for Those Who Want to Sleep Well in 2013.  Writer Abram Brown went looking for funds that performed well in recent years (always the hallmark of good fund selection: past performance) and that avoided weird strategies.  His list of winners:

PIMCO Diversified Income (PDVDX) – a fine multi-asset fund.

MFS Research Bond R3 (MRBHX) – R3 shares are only available through select retirement plans.  The publicly available “A” shares carry a sales load, which has trimmed about a percent a year off its returns.

Russell Strategic Bond (RFCEX) – this is another unavailable share class; the publicly available “A” shares have higher expenses, a load, and a lower Morningstar rating.

TCW Emerging Markets Income (TGEIX) – a fine fund whose assets have exploded in three years, from $150 million to $6.2 billion.

Loomis Sayles Bond (LBFAX) – the article points you to the fund’s Administrative shares, rather than the lower-cost Retail shares (LSBRX) but I don’t know why.

Loomis might illustrate some of the downsides to investing in the past.  Its famous lead manager, Dan Fuss, is now 79 years old and likely in the later stages of his career.  His heir apparent, Kathleen Gaffney, recently left the firm.  That leaves the fund in the hands of two lesser-known managers.

I’m not sure of how well most folks will sleep when their manager’s toting 40-100% emerging markets exposure or 60% junk bonds when the next wave crashes over the market, but it’s an interesting list.

Forbes is, by the way, surely a candidate for the most badly junked up page in existence, and one of the least useful.  Only about a third of the screen is the story, the rest are ads and misleading links.  See also “10 best mutual funds” does not lead to a Forbes story on the subject – it leads to an Ask search results page with paid results at top.

Vanguard: The Past 10 Years

In October we launched “The Last Ten,” a monthly series, running between now and February, looking at the strategies and funds launched by the Big Five fund companies (Fido, Vanguard, T Rowe, American and PIMCO) in the last decade.

Here are our findings so far:

Fidelity, once fabled for the predictable success of its new fund launches, has created no compelling new investment option and only one retail fund that has earned Morningstar’s five-star designation, Fidelity International Growth (FIGFX).  We suggested three causes: the need to grow assets, a cautious culture and a firm that’s too big to risk innovative funds.

T. Rowe Price continues to deliver on its promises.  Of the 22 funds launched, only Strategic Income (PRSNX) has been a consistent laggard; it has trailed its peer group in four consecutive years but trailed disastrously only once (2009).  Investing with Price is the equivalent of putting a strong singles-hitter on a baseball team; it’s a bet that you’ll win with consistency and effort, rather than the occasional spectacular play.

PIMCO has utterly crushed the competition, both in the thoughtfulness of their portfolios and in their performance.  PIMCO has, for example, about three times as many five-star funds – both overall and among funds launched in the last decade – than you’d predict.

The retirement of Gus Sauter, Vanguard’s long-time chief investment officer, makes this is fitting moment to look back on the decade just past.

Measured in terms of the number of funds launched or the innovativeness of their products, the decade has been unremarkable.  Vanguard:

• Has 112 funds (which are sold in over 278 packages or share classes)
• 29 of their funds were launched in the past decade
• 106 of them are old enough to have earned Morningstar ratings
• 8 of them has a five star rating (as of 12/27/12)
• 57 more earned four-star ratings.

Morningstar awards five-stars to the top 10% of funds in a class and four-stars to the next 22.5%.  The table below summarizes what you’d expect from a firm of Vanguard’s size and then what they’ve achieved.

What does the chart suggest?  Vanguard is less likely to be “spectacular” than the numbers would suggest but more than twice as likely to be “really good.”  That makes a great deal of sense given the nature of Vanguard’s advantage: the “at cost” ethos and tight budget controls means that they enter each year with a small advantage over the market.  With time that advantage compounds but remains modest.

The funds launched in the past decade are mostly undistinguished, in the sense that they incorporate neither unusual combinations of assets (no “emerging markets balanced” or “global infrastructure” here) nor innovative responses to changing market conditions (as with “real return” or “inflation-tuned” ones).   The vast bulk are target-date funds, other retirement income products, or new indexed funds for conventional market segments.

They’ve launched about five new actively-managed retail funds which, as a group, peak out at “okay.”

This is not to suggest that Vanguard has been inattentive of their shareholders best interests.  Rather they seem to have taken an old adage to heart: “be like a duck, stay calm on the surface but paddle like hell underwater.”  I’m indebted to Taylor Larimore, co-founder of the Bogleheads, for sharing the link to a valedictory interview with Gus Sauter, who points out that Vanguard’s decided to shift the indexes on which their funds are based.  That shift will, over time, save Vanguard’s investors hundreds of millions of dollars.  It also exemplifies the enduring nature of Vanguard’s competitive advantage: the ruthless pursuit of many small, almost invisible gains for their investors, the sum of which is consistently superior results.

Celebrating Small Cap Season

The Observer has, of late, spent a lot of time talking about the challenge of managing volatility.  That’s led us to discussions of long/short, covered call, and strategic income funds.  The two best months for small cap funds are January and February.  Average returns of U.S. small caps in January from 1927 to 2011 were 2.3%, more than triple those in February, which 0.72%.  And so we teamed up again with the folks at FundReveal to review the small cap funds we’ve profiled and to offer a recommendation or two.

You can reach the individual profiles by clicking in the “Funds” tab on our main navigation bar.  We’re in the process of updating them all during January.  Because our judgments embody a strong qualitative element, we asked our resolutely quantitative friends at FundReveal to look at our small caps and to offer their own data-driven reading of some of them. Their full analysis can be found on their blog.

FundReveal’s strategy is to track daily return and volatility data, rather than the more common monthly or quarterly measures.  They believe that allows them to look at many more examples of the managers’ judgment at work (they generate 250 data points a year rather than four or twelve) and to arrive at better predictions about a fund’s prospects.  One of FundReveal’s key measures is Persistence, the likelihood that a particular pattern of risk and return repeats itself, day after day.  In general, you can count on funds with higher persistence. Here are their highlights:

The MFO funds display, in general, higher volatility than the S&P 500 for both 2012 YTD and the past 5 years.  The one fund that had lower volatility in both time horizons is Pinnacle Value (PVFIX).   PVFIX demonstrates consistent performance with low volatility, factors to be combined with subjective analysis available from other sources.

Two other funds have delivered high ADR (Average Daily Return), but also present higher risk than the S&P.  In this case Southern Sun Small Cap (SSSFX) and Walthausen Small Cap (WSCVX) have high relative volatility, but they have delivered high ADR over both time horizons.  From the FundReveal perspective, SSSFX has the edge in terms of decision-making capability because it has delivered higher ADR than the S&P in 10 Quarters and lower ADR in 6 Quarters, while WSCVX had delivered higher ADR than the S&P in 7 Quarters and lower ADR in 7 Quarters.  

So, bottom line, from the FundReveal perspective PVFIX and SSSFX are the more attractive funds in this lineup. 

Some Small Cap funds worthy of consideration:

Small Blend 

• Schwartz Value fund (RCMFX): Greater than S&P ADR, Lower Volatility (what we call “A” performance) for 2012 YTD and 2007-2012 YTD.  It has a high Persistence Rating (40%) that indicates a historic tendency to deliver A performance on a quarterly basis. 
• Third Avenue Small-Cap Fund (TVSVX): Greater than S&P ADR, Lower Volatility with a medium Persistence Rating (33%).

Small Growth

• Wasatch Micro Cap Value fund (WAMVX): Greater than  S&P ADR, Lower Volatility 2007-2012 YTF, with a medium Persistence Rating (30%).  No FundReveal covered Small Growth funds delivered “A” performance in 2012 YTD. (WAMVX is half of Snowball’s Roth IRA.)

Small Value

• Pinnacle Value Fund (PVFIX): An MFO focus fund, discussed above.  It has a high Persistence Rating (50%).
• Intrepid Small Cap Fund (ICMAX ): Greater than  S&P ADR, Lower Volatility for 2007-2012 YTF, with a high Persistence Rating (55%). Eric Cinnamond, who now manages Aston River Road Independent Value, managed ICMAX from 2005-10.
• ING American Century Small-Mid Cap Value (ISMSX): Greater than  S&P ADR, Lower Volatility for 2007-2012 YTF, with a medium Persistence Rating (25%).

If you’re intrigued by the potential for fine-grained quantitative analysis, you should visit FundReveal.  While theirs is a pay service, free trials are available so that you can figure out whether their tools will help you make your own decisions.

Ameristock’s Curious Struggle

Nick Gerber’s Ameristock (AMSTX) fund was long an icon of prudent, focused investing but, like many owner-operated funds, is being absorbed into a larger firm.  In this case, it’s moving into the Drexel Hamilton family of funds.

Or not.  While these transactions are generally routine, a recent SEC filing speaks to some undiscussed turmoil in the move.  Here’s the filing:

As described in the Supplement Dated October 9, 2012 to the Prospectus of Ameristock Mutual Fund, Inc. dated September 28, 2012, a Special Meeting of Shareholders of the Ameristock Fund  was scheduled for December 12, 2012 at 11:00 a.m., Pacific Time, for shareholders to vote on a proposed Agreement and Plan of Reorganization and Termination pursuant to which the Ameristock Fund would be reorganized into the Drexel Hamilton Centre American Equity Fund, a series of Drexel Hamilton Mutual Funds, resulting in the complete liquidation and termination of the Ameristock Fund. The Special Meeting convened as scheduled on December 12, 2012, but was adjourned until … December 27, 2012.   … The Reconvened Special Meeting was reconvened as scheduled on December 27, 2012, but has again been adjourned and will reconvene on Thursday, January 10, 2012 …

Uh-huh. 

Should Old Acquaintance Be Forgot and Never Brought to Mind?

Goodness, no.

How long can a fund be incredibly, eternally awful and still survive?  The record is doubtless held by the former Steadman funds, which were ridiculed as the Deadman funds and eventually hid out as the Ameritor funds. They managed generations of horrible ineptitude. How horrible?  In the last decade of their existence (through 2007), they lost 98.98%.  That’s the transformation of $10,000 into $102. Sufficiently horrible that they became a case study at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business.

In celebrating the season of Auld Lang Syne, I set out to see whether there were any worthy successors on the horizon.  I scanned Morningstar’s database for funds which trailed at least 99% of the peers this year.  And over the past five years.  And 10 and 15 years.

Five funds actually cropped up as being that bad that consistently.  The good news for investors is that the story isn’t quite as bleak as it first appears.

Jaffe’s Year-End Explosion

I’m not sure that Chuck Jaffe is the hardest-working man in the fund biz, but he does have periods of prodigious output.  December is one of those periods.   Chuck ran four features this month worth special note.

• Farewell to Stupid Investments.  After nearly a decade, Chuck has ended down his “Stupid Investment of the Week” column.  Chuck’s closing columns echoes Cassius, in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings.”  Or perhaps Pogo, “we have met the enemy and he is us.”
• 17^th Annual Lump of Coal Awards, December 10 and December 17.  This is the litany of stupidity surrounding the fund industry, from slack-wit regulators to venal managers.  One interesting piece discusses Morningstar’s analyst ratings.  Morningstar’s ratings roughly break the universe down into good ideas (gold, silver, bronze), okay ideas (neutral) and bad ideas (negative).  Of the 1000+ funds rated so far, only 5%qualify for negative ratings.  Morningstar’s rejoinder is that there are 5000 unrated funds, the vast bulk of which don’t warrant any attention.  So while the 5% might be the tip of a proverbial iceberg, they represent the funds with the greatest risk of attracting serious investor attention.

  My recommendation, which didn’t make Chuck’s final list, was to present a particularly grimy bit o’ bituminous to the fund industry for its response to the bond mania.  Through all of 2012, the industry closed a total of four funds to new investment while at the same time launching 39 new bond funds.  That’s looks a lot like the same impulse that led to the launch of B2B Internet Services funds (no, I’m not making that up) just before the collapse of the tech bubble in 2000; a “hey, people want to buy this stuff so we’ve got an obligation to market it to them” approach.

• Tales from the Mutual Fund Crypt, December 26: stories of recently-departed funds.  A favorite: the Auto-Pilot fund’s website drones on, six months after the fund’s liquidation.  It continues to describe the fund as “new,” six years after launch.

  My nominee was generic: more funds are being shut down after 12 – 18 months of operation which smacks of hypocrisy (have you ever heard of a manager who didn’t preach the “long-term investor” mantra yet the firms themselves have a short-term strategy) and incompetence (in fund design and marketing both).

Chuck’s still podcasting, MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe.  One cool recent interview was with Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer for the Leuthold Funds.

ASTON/River Road Long-Short Conference Call

On December 17, about fifty readers joined us for an hour-long conversation with Matt Moran and Daniel Johnson, managers of ASTON/River Road Long-Short (ARLSX).  For folks interested but unable to join us, here’s the complete audio of the hour-long conversation.  It starts with Morty Schaja, River Road’s president, talking about the fund’s genesis and River Road’s broader discipline and track record: 

If you’d like a preview before deciding whether you listen in, you might want to read our profile of ARLSX (there’s a printable .pdf of the profile on Aston’s website and an audio profile, which we discuss below).  Here are some of the highlights of the conversation:

Quick highlights:

1. they believe they can outperform the stock market by 200 bps/year over a full market cycle. Measuring peak to peak or trough to trough, both profit and stock market cycles average 5.3 years, so they think that’s a reasonable time-frame for judging them.
2. they believe they can keep beta at 0.3 to 0.5. They have a discipline for reducing market exposure when their long portfolio exceeds 80% of fair value. The alarms rang in September, they reduce expose and so their beta is now at 0.34, near their low.
3. risk management is more important than return management, so all three of their disciplines are risk-tuned. The long portfolio, 15-30 industry leaders selling at a discount of at least 20% to fair value, tend to be low-beta stocks. Even so their longs have outperformed the market by 9%.
4. River Road is committed to keeping the fund open for at least 8 years. It’s got $8 million in asset, the e.r. is capped at 1.7% but it costs around 8% to run. The president of River Road said that they anticipated slow asset growth and budgeted for it in their planning with Aston.
5. The fund might be considered an equity substitute. Their research suggests that a 30/30/40 allocation (long, long/short, bonds) has much higher alpha than a 60/40 portfolio.

An interesting contrast with RiverPark, where Mitch Rubin wants to “play offense” with both parts of the portfolio. Here the strategy seems to hinge on capital preservation: money that you don’t lose in a downturn is available to compound for you during the up-cycle.

Conference Calls Upcoming: Matthews, Seafarer, Cook & Bynum on-deck

As promised, we’re continuing our moderated conference calls through the winter.  You should consider joining in.  Here’s the story:

• Each call lasts about an hour
• About one third of the call is devoted to the manager’s explanation of their fund’s genesis and strategy, about one third is a Q&A that I lead, and about one third is Q&A between our callers and the manager.
• The call is, for you, free.  Your line is muted during the first two parts of the call (so you can feel free to shout at the danged cat or whatever) and you get to join the question queue during the last third by pressing the star key.

Our next conference call features Teresa Kong, manager of Matthews Asia Strategic Income (MAINX).  It’s Tuesday, January 22, 7:00 – 8:00 p.m., EST.

Matthews is the fund world’s best, deepest, and most experienced team of Asia investors.  They offer a variety of funds, all of which have strong – and occasionally spectacular – long-term records investing in one of the world’s fastest-evolving regions.  While income has been an element of many of the Matthews portfolios, it became a central focus with the December 2011 launch of MAINX.  Ms. Kong, who has a lot of experience with first-rate advisors including BlackRock, Oppenheimer and JPMorgan, joined Matthews in 2010 ahead of the launch of this fund. 

Why might you want to join the call? 

Bonds across the developed world seem poised to return virtually nothing for years and possibly decades. For many income investors, Asia is a logical destination. Three factors support that conclusion:

1. Asian governments and corporations are well-positioned to service their debts. Their economies are growing and their credit ratings are being raised.
2. Most Asian debt supports infrastructure, rather than consumption.
3. Most investors are under-exposed to Asian debt markets. Bond indexes, the basis for passive funds and the benchmark for active ones, tend to be debt-weighted; that is, the more heavily indebted a nation is, the greater weight it has in the index. Asian governments and corporations have relatively low debt levels and have made relatively light use of the bond market. An investor with a global diversified bond portfolio (70% Barclays US Aggregate bond index, 20% Barclays Global Aggregate, 10% emerging markets) would have only 7% exposure to Asia. However you measure Asia’s economic significance (31% of global GDP, rising to 38% in the near future or, by IMF calculations, the source of 50% of global growth), even fairly sophisticated bond investors are likely underexposed.

The question isn’t “should you have more exposure to Asian fixed-income markets,” but rather “should you seek exposure through Matthews?” The answer, in all likelihood, is “yes.” Matthews has the largest array of Asia investment products in the U.S. market, the deepest analytic core and the broadest array of experience. They also have a long history of fixed-income investing in the service of funds such as Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX). Their culture and policies are shareholder-friendly and their success has been consistent. Ms. Kong has outstanding credentials and has had an excellent first year.

How can you join in? 

Click on the “register” button and you’ll be taken to Chorus Call’s site, where you’ll get a toll free number and a PIN number to join us.  On the day of the call, I’ll send a reminder to everyone who has registered.

Would an additional heads up help? 

About a hundred readers have signed up for a conference call mailing list.  About a week ahead of each call, I write to everyone on the list to remind them of what might make the call special and how to register.  If you’d like to be added to the conference call list, just drop me a line.

Podcasts and Profiles

If you look at our top navigation bar, you’ll see a new tab and a new feature for the Observer. We’re calling it our Podcast page, but it’s much more.  It began as a suggestion from Ira Artman, a talented financial services guy and a longtime member of the FundAlarm and Observer community.  Ira suggested that we archive together the audio recordings of our conference calls and audio versions of the corresponding fund profiles. 

Good idea, Ira!  We went a bit further and create a resource page for each fund.  The page includes:

• The fund’s name, ticker symbols and its manager’s name
• Written highlights from the conference call
• A playable/downloadable .mp3 of the call
• A link to the fund profile
• A playable/downloadable .mp3 of the fund profile.  The audio profiles start with the print profile, which we update and edit for aural clarity.  Each profile is recorded by Emma Presley, a bright and mellifluous English friend of ours.
• A link to the fund’s most recent fact sheet on the fund’s website.

We have resource pages for RiverPark Short Term High-Yield, RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity and Aston/River Road Long Short.  The pages for Matthews Asia Strategic Income, Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income, and Cook and Bynum are in the works.

Observer Fund Profiles

Each month the Observer provides in-depth profiles of between two and four funds.  Our “Most Intriguing New Funds” are funds launched within the past couple years that most frequently feature experienced managers leading innovative newer funds.  “Stars in the Shadows” are older funds that have attracted far less attention than they deserve. This month’s lineup features a single Star in the Shadows:

Bridgeway Managed Volatility (BRBPX): Dick Cancelmo appreciates RiverNorth Dynamic Buy-Write’s strategy and wishes them great success, but also points out that others have been successful using a similar strategy for well over a decade.  Indeed, over the last 10 years, BRBPX has quietly produced 70% of the stock market’s gains with just 40% of its volatility.

BRBPX and the Mystery of the Incredible Shrinking Fund

While it’s not relevant to the merit of BRBPX and doesn’t particularly belong in its profile, the collapse of the fund’s asset base is truly striking.  In 2005, assets stood around $130 million.  Net assets have declined in each of the past five years from $75 million to $24 million.  The fund has made money over that period and is consistently in the top third of long/short funds.

Why the shrinkage?  I don’t know.  The strategy works, which should at least mean that existing shareholders hang on but they don’t.  My traditional explanation has been, because this fund is dull. Dull, dull, dull.  Dull stocks and dull bonds with one dull (or, at least, technically dense) strategy to set them apart.  Part of the problem is Bridgeway.  This is the only Bridgeway fund that targets conservative, risk-conscious investors which means the average conservative investor would find little to draw them to Bridgeway and the average Bridgeway investor has limited interest in conservative funds.  Bridgeway’s other funds have had a performance implosion.  When I first profiled BRBPX, five of the six funds rated by Morningstar had five-star designations.  Today none of them do.  Instead, five of eight rated funds carry one or two stars.  While BRBPX continues to have a four-star rating, there might be a contagion effect. 

Mr. Cancelmo attributes the decline to Bridgeway’s historic aversion to marketing.  “We had,” he reports, “the ‘if you build a better mousetrap’ mindset.  We’ve now hired a business development team to help with marketing.”  That might explain why they weren’t drawing new assets, but hardly explains have 80% of assets walking out the door.

If you’ve got a guess or an insight, I’d love to hear of it.  (Dick might, too.)  Drop me a note.

As a side note, Bridgeway probably offers the single best Annual Report in the industry.  You get a startling degree of honesty, thoughtfulness and clarity about both the funds and their take on broader issues which impact them and their investors.  I was particularly struck by a discussion of the rising tide of correlations of stocks within the major indices.  Here’s the graphic they shared:

What does it mean?  Roughly, a generation ago you could explain 20% of the movement of the average stock’s price by broader movements in the market.   As a greater and greater fraction of the stock market’s trades are made in baskets of stocks (index funds, ETFs, and so on) rather than individual names, more and more of the fate of each stock is controlled by sentiments surrounding its industry, sector, peers or market cap.  That’s the steady rise of the line overall.  And during a crisis, almost 80% of a stock’s movement is controlled by the market rather than by a firm’s individual merits.  Bridgeway talks through the significance of that for their funds and encourages investors to factor it into their investment decisions.

The report offers several interesting, insightful discussions, making it the exact opposite of – for example – Fidelity’s dismal, plodding, cookie cutter reports.

Here’s our recommendation: if you run a fund, write such like Bridgeway’s 2012 Annual Report.  If you’re trying to become a better investor, read it!

Launch Alert: RiverNorth/Oaktree High Income (RNHIX, RNOTX)

RiverNorth/Oaktree High Income Fund launched on December 28.  This is a collaboration between RiverNorth, whose specialty has been tactical asset allocation and investing in closed-end funds (CEFs), and Oaktree.  Oaktree is a major institutional bond investor with about $80 billion under management.  Oaktree’s clientele includes “75 of the 100 largest U.S. pension plans, 300 endowments and foundations, 10 sovereign wealth funds and 40 of the 50 primary state retirement plans in the United States.”  Their specialties include high yield and distressed debt and convertible securities.  Until now, the only way for retail investors to access them was through Vanguard Convertible Securities (VCVSX), a four-star Gold rated fund.

Patrick Galley, RiverNorth’s CIO, stresses that this is “a core credit fund (managed by Oaktree) with a high income opportunistic CEF strategy managed by RiverNorth.”  The fund has three investment strategies, two managed by Oaktree.  While, in theory, Oaktree’s share of the portfolio could range from 0 – 100%, as a normal matter they’ll manage the considerable bulk of the portfolio.  Oaktree will have the freedom to allocate between their high-yield and senior loan strategies.  RiverNorth will focus on income-producing CEFs.

For those already invested in RiverNorth funds, Mr. Galley explained the relationship of RNHIX to its siblings:

We are staying true to the name and focusing on income producing closed-end funds, but unlike RNSIX (which focuses on income producing fixed income) and RNDIX (which focuses on income producing equities) and RNCOX (which doesn’t have an income mandate and only distributes once a year), RNHIX will invest across the CEF spectrum (i.e. all asset classes) but with a focus on income without sacrificing/risking total return.

The argument for considering this fund is similar to the argument for considering RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income.  You’re hiring world-class experts who work in inefficient segments of the fixed-income universe. 

RiverNorth had the risk and return characteristics for a bunch of asset classes charted.

You might read the chart as saying something like: this is a strategy that could offer equity-like returns with more nearly bond-like volatility.  In a world where mainstream, investment-grade bonds are priced to return roughly nothing, that’s an option a reasonable person would want to explore.

The retail expense ratio is capped at 1.60% and the minimum initial investment is $5000.

Funds in Registration

New mutual funds must be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission before they can be offered for sale to the public.  The SEC has a 75-day window during which to call for revisions of a prospectus; fund companies sometimes use that same time to tweak a fund’s fee structure or operating details.  Every day we scour new SEC filings to see what opportunities might be about to present themselves. Many of the proposed funds offer nothing new, distinctive or interesting.  Some are downright horrors of Dilbertesque babble.

Funds in registration this month won’t be available for sale until, typically, the beginning of March 2013. We found 15 funds in the pipeline, notably:

Investors Variable NAV Money Market Fund, one of a series of four money markets managed by Northern Trust, all of which will feature variable NAVs.  This may be a first step in addressing a serious problem: the prohibition against “breaking the buck” is forcing a lot of firms to choose between underwriting the cost of running their money funds or (increasingly) shutting them down.

LSV Small Cap Value Fund is especially notable for its management team, led by Josef Lakonishok is a reasonably famous academic who did some of the groundbreaking work on behavioral finance, then translated that research into actual investment strategies through private accounts, hedge funds, and his LSV Value Equity Fund (LSVEX) fund.

Details on these funds and the list of all of the funds in registration are available at the Observer’s Funds in Registration page or by clicking “Funds” on the menu atop each page.

On a related note, we also tracked down 31 fund manager changes, including a fair number of folks booted from ING funds.

Briefly Noted

According to a recent SEC filing, Washington Mutual Investors Fund and its Tax-Exempt Fund of Maryland and Tax-Exempt Fund of Virginia “make available a Spanish translation of the above prospectus supplement in connection with the public offering and sale of its shares. The English language prospectus supplement above is a fair and accurate representation of the Spanish equivalent.”  I’m sure there are other Spanish-language prospectuses out there, but I’ve never before seen a notice about one.  It’s especially interesting given that tax-exempt bond funds target high income investors. 

Effective January 1, DWS is imposing a $20/year small account service fee for shareholders in all 49 of their funds.  The fee comes on top of their sales loads.  The fee applies to any account with under $10,000 which is regrettable for a firm with a $1,000 minimum initial investment.  (Thanks to chip for having spotted this filing in the SEC’s database.  Regrets for having gotten friends into the habit of scanning the SEC database.)

Closings

Eaton Vance Atlanta Capital SMID-Cap (EAASX) is closing to new investors on Jan. 15.  More has been pouring in (on the order of $1.5 billion in a year); at least in part driven by a top-notch five-year rating.

Walthausen Small Cap Value (WSCVX) closed to new investors at the end of the year.  At the same time, the minimum initial investment for the $1.7 million Walthausen Select Value Investor Class (WSVIX) went from $10,000 to $100,000.  WSCVX closed on January 1 at $560 million which might explain was they’re making the other fund’s institutional share class harder to access.

William Blair International Growth (WBIGX) closed to new investors, effective Dec. 31.

Old Wine in New Bottles

American Century Inflation Protection Bond (APOIX) has been renamed American Century Short Duration Inflation Protection Bond. The fund has operated as a short-duration offering since August 2011, when its benchmark changed to the Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Index.

Federated Prudent Absolute Return (FMAAX) is about to become less Prudent.  They’re changing their name to Federated Absolute Return and removed the manager of the Prudent Bear fund from the management team.

Prudential Target Moderate Allocation (PAMGX) is about to get a new name (Prudential Defensive Equity), mandate (growth rather than growth and income) and management structure (one manager team rather than multiple).  It is, otherwise, virtually unchanged. 

Prudential Target Growth Allocation (PHGAX) is merging into Prudential Jenison Equity Income (SPQAX).

U.S. Global Investors Global MegaTrends (MEGAX) is now U.S. Global Investors MegaTrends and no longer needs to invest outside the U.S. 

William Blair Global Growth (WGGNX) will change its name to William Blair Global, and William Blair Emerging Leaders Growth (WELNX) will change its name to William Blair Emerging Markets Leaders.

Small wins for investors

Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX), a wildly successful, super-concentrated value fund, has decided to substantially reduce their expense ratio.  President David Hobbs reports:

… given our earlier dialogue about fees, I wanted to let you know that as of 1/1/13 the all-in expense ratio for the fund will be capped at 1.49% (down from 1.88%).  This is a decision that we have been wrestling with for some time internally, and we finally decided that we should make the move to broaden the potential appeal of the fund. . . .  With the fund’s performance (and on-going 5-star ratings with Morningstar and S&P Capital IQ), we decided to take a calculated risk that this new fee level will help us grow the fund.

Our 2012 profile of the fund concluded, “Cook and Bynum might well be among the best.  They’re young.  The fund is small and nimble.  Their discipline makes great sense.  It’s not magic, but it has been very, very good and offers an intriguing alternative for investors concerned by lockstep correlations and watered-down portfolios.”  That makes the decreased cost especially welcome.  (They also have a particularly good website.)

Effective January 2, 2013, Calamos Growth and Income and Global Growth and Income Funds re-opened to new investors. (Thanks to The Shadow for catching this SEC filing.)

ING Small Company (AESAX) has reopened.  It’s reasonably large and not very good, really.

JPMorgan (JPM) launched Total Emerging Markets (TMGGX), an emerging-markets allocation fund.

Fund firms have been cutting expenses of late as they pressure to gather and hold assets builds. 

Fidelity has reduced the minimum investment on its Advantage share class from $100,000 to $10,000.  The Advantage class has lower expense ratios (which is good) and investors who own more than $10,000 in a fund’s retail Investor class will be moved automatically to the less-expensive Advantage class.

Fido also dropped the minimums on nearly two dozen index and enhanced index products from $10,000 to $2,500, which gives a lot more folks access to low-cost passive (or nearly-passive) shares. 

Fido also cut fees on eight Spartan index funds, between one to eight basis points.  The Spartan funds had very low expenses to begin with (10 basis points in some cases), so those cuts are substantial.

GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation (GBMFX) has decreased its expense ratio from 87 basis points down to 81 bps by increasing its fee waiver.  The fund is interesting and important not because I intend to invest in in soon (the minimum is $10 million) but because it represents where GMO thinks that an investor who didn’t give a hoot about other people’s opinions (that’s the “benchmark-free” part) should invest.

Effective January 1, Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. capped expenses for Tocqueville International Value at 1.25% of the fund’s average daily net assets.  Until now investors have been paying 1.56%. 

Also effective January 1, TCW Investment Management Company reduced the management fees for the TCW High Yield Bond Fund from 0.75% to 0.45%.

Vanguard has cut fees on 47 products, which include both ETFs and funds. Some of the cuts went into effect on Dec. 21, while others went into effect on Dec. 27th.  The reductions on eleven ETFs — four stock and seven bond — on December 21. Those cuts range from one to two basis points. That translates to reductions of 3 – 15%.

Off to the Dustbin of History

The board of trustees of Altrius Small Cap Value (ALTSX) has closed the fund and will likely have liquidated it by the time you read this.  On the one hand, the fund only drew $180,000 in assets.  On the other, the members of the board of trustees receive $86,000/year for their services, claim to be overseeing between 97 – 100 funds and apparently have been doing so poorly, since they received a Wells Notice from the SEC in May 2012.  They were bright even not to place a penny of their own money in the fund.  One of the two managers was not so fortunate: he ate a fair portion of his own cooking and likely ended up with a stomach cramp.

American Century will liquidate American Century Equity Index (ACIVX) in March 2013. The fund has lost 75% of its assets in recent years, a victim of investor disillusionment with stocks and high expenses.  ACIVX charged 0.49%, which seems tiny until you recall that identical funds can be had for as little as 0.05% (Vanguard, naturally).

Aston Asset Management has fired the Veredus of Aston/Veredus Small Cap Growth (VERDX) and will merge the fund in Aston Small Cap Growth (ACWDX).  Until the merger, it will go by the name Aston Small Cap.

The much-smaller Aston/Veredus Select Growth (AVSGX) will simply be liquidated.  But were struggling.

Federated Capital Appreciation, a bottom 10% kind of fund, is merging Federated Equity-Income (LEIFX).  LEIFX has been quite solid, so that’s a win.

GMO is liquidating GMO Inflation Indexed Plus Bond (GMIPX).  Uhh, good move.  Floyd Norris, in The New York Times, points out that recently-auctioned inflation-protected bonds have been priced to lock in a loss of about 1.4% per year over their lifetimes.   If inflation spikes, you might at best hope to break even.

HSBC will liquidate two money-market funds, Tax-Tree and New York Tax-Free in mid-January.

ING Index Plus International Equity (IFIAX) has closed and is liquidating around Feb. 22, 2013.  No, I don’t know what the “Plus” was.

Invesco is killing off, in April, some long-storied names in its most recent round of mergers.  Invesco Constellation (CSTGX) and Invesco Leisure (ILSAX) are merging into American Franchise (VAFAX).  Invesco Dynamics (IDYAX) goes into Mid Cap Growth (VGRAX), Invesco High-Yield Securities (HYLAX) into High Yield (AMHYX), Invesco Leaders (VLFAX) into Growth Allocation (AADAX), and Invesco Municipal Bond (AMBDX) will merge into Municipal Income (VKMMX).   Any investors in the 1990s who owned AIM Constellation (I did), Invesco Dynamics and Invesco Leisure would have been incredibly well-off.

Leuthold Global Clean Technology (LGCTX) liquidated on Christmas Eve Day. Steve Leuthold described this fund, at its 2009 launch, as “the investment opportunity of a generation.”  Their final letter to shareholders lamented the fund’s tiny, unsustainable asset base despite “strong performance relative to its comparable benchmark index” and noted that “the Fund operates in a market sector that has had challenging.”  Losses of 20% per year are common for green/clean/alternative funds, so one can understand the limited allure of “strong relative performance.”

Lord Abbett plan to merge Lord Abbett Stock Appreciation (LALCX) into Lord Abbett Growth Leaders (LGLAX) in late spring, 2013.

Munder International Equity (MUIAX) is merging into Munder International Core Equity (MAICX).

Natixis Absolute Asia Dynamic Equity (DEFAX) liquidated in December.  (No one noticed.)

TCW Global Flexible Allocation Fund (TGPLX) and TCW Global Moderate Allocation Fund (TGPOX) will be liquidated on or about February 15, 2013.  Effective the close of business on February 8, 2013, the Funds will no longer sell shares to new investors or existing shareholders.  These consistent laggards, managed by the same team, had only $10 million between them.  Durn few of those $10 million came from the managers.  Only one member of the management team had as much as a dollar at risk in any of TCW’s global allocation funds.  That was Tad Rivelle who had a minimal investment in Flexible.

In Closing …

Thank you all for your support in 2012. There are a bunch of numerical measures we could use. The Observer hosted 78,645 visitors and we averaged about 11,000 readers a month.  Sixty folks made direct contributions to the Observer and many others picked up $88,315.15 worth of cool loot (3502 items) at Amazon.  And a thousand folks viewed something like 1.6 million discussion topics. 

But, in many ways, the note that reads “coming here feels like sitting down with an old friend and talking about something important” is as valuable as anything we could point to. 

So thanks for it all.

If you get a chance and have a suggestion about how to make the Observer better in the year ahead, drop me a note and let me know.  For now, we’ll continue offering (and archiving) our monthly conference calls.  During January we’ll be updating our small cap profiles and February will see new profiles for Whitebox Long Short Equity (WBLSX) and PIMCO Short Asset Investment (PAIUX).

Until then, take care.

With hopes for a blessed New Year,

Dear friends,

And now, we wait.  After the frenzy of recent months, that seems odd and unnatural.

Will and his minions wait for the holidays, anxious for the last few weeks of school to pass but secure in the knowledge that their folks are dutifully keeping the retail economy afloat.

Photo by Drew Barnes ’14, Augustana Photo Bureau

My colleagues at Augustana are waiting for winter and then for spring.  The seemingly endless string of warm, dry weeks has left much of our fall foliage intact as we enter December. As beautiful as it is, we’re sort of rooting for winter, or at least the hope of seasonal weather, to reassert itself. And we’re waiting for spring, when the $13 million renovation of Old Main will be complete and we escape our warren of temporary offices and ersatz classrooms. I’ve toured the half-complete renovation. It’s going to be so cool.

And investors wait. Most of us are waiting for a resolution of “the fiscal cliff” (alternately: fiscal slope, obstacle course, whatchamacallit or, my favorite, Fiscal Clifford the Big Red Dog), half fearful that they won’t find a compromise and half fearful that they will.

Then there are The Two Who Wouldn’t Wait. And they worry me. A lot. We’ve written for a year or so about our concerns that the bond market is increasingly unstable. That concern has driven our search for tools, other than Treasuries or a bond aggregate, that investors might use to manage volatility. In the past month, the urgency of that search has been highlighted by The Two. One of The Two is Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of the DoubleLine funds and widely acknowledged as one of the best fixed-income managers anyway. Gundlach believes that “[d]eeply indebted countries and companies, which Gundlach doesn’t name, will default sometime after 2013” (Bond Investor Gundlach Buys Stocks, Sees ‘Kaboom’ Ahead, 11/30/2012). Gundlach says, “I don’t believe you’re going to get some sort of an early warning. You should be moving now.”  Gundlach, apparently, is moving into fine art.

GMO, the other of The Two, has moved. GMO (Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo) has an outstanding record for anticipating asset class crashes. They moved decisively in 2000 and again in 2007, knowing that they were likely early and knowing that leaving the party early would cost them billions (one quarter of the firm’s assets) as angry investors left. But when the evidence says “run,” they ran. In a late-November interview with the Financial Times, GMO’s head of asset allocation revealed that, firm-wide, GMO had sold off all of their bond holdings (GMO abandons bond market, 11/26/2012). “We’ve largely given up on traditional fixed income,” Inker says, including government and corporate debt in the same condemnation. They don’t have any great alternatives (high quality US stocks are about the best option), but would prefer to keep billions in cash to the alternatives.

I don’t know whether you should wait. But I do believe that you should acquaint yourself with those who didn’t.

The Last Ten: PIMCO in the Past Decade

In October we launched “The Last Ten,” a monthly series, running between now and February, looking at the strategies and funds launched by the Big Five fund companies (Fido, Vanguard, T Rowe, American and PIMCO) in the last decade.

Here are our findings so far:

Fidelity, once fabled for the predictable success of its new fund launches, has created no compelling new investment option and only one retail fund that has earned Morningstar’s five-star designation, Fidelity International Growth (FIGFX).  We suggested three causes: the need to grow assets, a cautious culture and a firm that’s too big to risk innovative funds.

T. Rowe Price continues to deliver on its promises.  Of the 22 funds launched, only Strategic Income (PRSNX) has been a consistent laggard; it has trailed its peer group in four consecutive years but trailed disastrously only once (2009).  Investing with Price is the equivalent of putting a strong singles-hitter on a baseball team; it’s a bet that you’ll win with consistency and effort, rather than the occasional spectacular play.

And just as you’re about to conclude that large fund companies will necessarily produce cautious funds that can aspire just to “pretty good,” along comes PIMCO.  PIMCO was once known as an almost purely fixed-income investor.  Its flagship PIMCO Total Return Fund has gathered over a quarter trillion dollars in assets and tends to finish in the top 10% of its peer group over most trailing time periods.

But PIMCO has become more.  This former separate accounts managers for Pacific Life Insurance Company now declares, “We continue to evolve. Throughout our four decades we have been pioneers and continue to evolve as a provider of investment solutions across all asset classes.”

Indeed they have.  PIMCO has spent more time thinking about, and talking about, the global economic future than any firm other, perhaps, than GMO.  More than talk about the changing sources of alpha and the changing shape of risk, PIMCO has launched a bunch of unique funds targeting emerging challenges and opportunities that other firms would prefer simply to ignore (or to eventually react to).

Perhaps as a result, PIMCO has created more five-star funds in the last decade than any other firm and, among larger firms, has a greater fraction of their funds earning four- or five-stars than anyone else.  Here’s the snapshot:

• PIMCO has 84 funds (which are sold in over 536 packages or share classes)
• 56 of their funds were launched in the past decade
• 61 of them are old enough to have earned Morningstar ratings
• 20 of them have five-star ratings (as of 11/14/12)
• 15 more earned four-star ratings.

How likely this that?  In each Morningstar category, the top 10 percent of funds receive five stars, the next 22.5 percent receive four stars, and the next 35 percent receive three.  In the table below, those are the “expected values.”  If PIMCO had just ordinary skill or luck, you’d expect to see the numbers in the expected values column.  But you don’t.

Only their RealRetirement funds move between bad and mediocre, and even those funds made yet be redeemed.  The RealRetirement funds, like PIMCO’s other “Real” funds, are designed to be especially sensitive to inflation.  That’s the factor that poses the greatest long-term risk to most of our portfolios, especially as they become more conservative.  Until we see a sustained uptick in inflation, we can’t be sure of how well the RealRetirement funds will meet their mandates.  But, frankly, PIMCO’s record counsels patience.

Here are all of the funds that PIMCO has launched in the last 10 years, which their Morningstar rating (as of mid-November, 2012), category and approximate assets under management.

In January, we’ll continue the series of a look at Vanguard.  We know that Vanguard inspires more passion among its core investors than pretty much any other firm.  Since we’re genial outsiders to the Vanguard culture, if you’ve got insights, concerns, tips, kudos or rants you’d like to share, dear Bogleheads, drop me a note.

RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity Conference Call

Volatility is tremendously exciting for many investment managers.  You’d be amazed by the number who get up every morning, hoping for a market panic.  For the rest of us, it’s simply terrifying.

For the past thirty years, the simple, all-purpose answer to unacceptable volatility has been “add Treasuries.”  The question we began debating last spring is, “where might investors look if Treasuries stop functioning as the universal answer?”  We started by looking at long/short equity funds as one possible answer.  Our research quickly led to one conclusion, and slowly to a second.

The quick conclusion: long/short funds, as a group, are a flop. They’re ridiculously expensive, with several dozen charging 2.75% or more plus another 1.5-2% in short interest charges.  They offered some protection in 2008, though several did manage to lose more that year than did the stock market.  But their longer term returns have been solidly dismal.  The group returned 0.15% over the past five years, which means they trailed far behind the stock market, a simple 60/40 hybrid, moderate allocation funds, very conservative short-term bond funds . . . about the only way to make this bunch look good is to compare them to “market neutral” funds (whose motto seems to be, “we can lose money in up markets and down!”).

The slower conclusion: some long-short funds have consistently, in a variety of markets, managed to treat their investors well and a couple more show the real promise of doing so. The indisputable gold standard among such funds, Robeco Long Short (BPLEX) returned 16% annually over the past five years.  The second-best performer, Marketfield (MFLDX) made 9% while funds #3 (Guggenheim Alpha) and #4 (Wasatch Long/Short) made 4%. Sadly, BPLEX is closed to new investors, Guggenheim has always had a sales load and Marketfield just acquired one. Wasatch Long-Short (FMLSX), which we first profiled three years ago, remains a strong, steady performer with reasonable expenses.

Ultimately we identified (and profiled) just three, newer long-short funds worthy of serious attention: Marketfield, RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity (RPLSX) and ASTON/River Road Long Short (ARLSX).

For about an hour on November 29th, Mitch Rubin, manager of RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX) fielded questions from Observer readers about his fund’s strategy and its risk-return profile.  Nearly 60 people signed up for the call.

For folks interested but unable to join us, here’s the complete audio of the hour-long conversation.  It starts with Morty Schaja, RiverPark’s president, talking about the fund’s genesis and Mr. Rubin talking about its strategy.  After that, I posed five questions of Rubin and callers chimed in with another half dozen.

If you’d like a preview before deciding whether you listen in, you might want to read our profile of RLSFX (there’s a printable .pdf of the profile on RiverPark’s website).  Here are some of the highlights of the conversation:

Rubin believes that many long/short mutual fund managers (as opposed to the hedge fund guys) are too timid about using the leverage allowed them.  As a result, they’re not able to harvest the full returns potential of their funds.  Schaja describes RLSFX’s leverage as “moderate,” which generally means having investments equal to 150-200% of assets.

The second problem with long/short managers as a group, he believes, is that they’re too skittish.  They obsess about short-term macro-events (the fiscal cliff) and dilute their insights by trying to bet for or against industry groups (by shorting ETFs, for example) rather than focusing on identifying the best firms in the best industries.

One source of RLSFX’s competitive advantage is the team’s long history of long investing.  They started following many of the firms in their portfolio nearly two decades ago, following their trajectory from promising growth stocks (in which they invested), stodgy mature firms (which they’d sold) and now old firms in challenged industries (which are appearing in the short portfolio).

A second source of advantage is the team’s longer time horizon.  Their aim is to find companies which might double their money over the next five years and then to buy them when their price is temporarily low.

I’d like to especially thank Bill Fuller, Jeff Mayer and Richard Falk for the half dozen really sharp, thoughtful questions that they posed during the closing segment.  If you catch no other part of the call, you might zoom in on those last 15 minutes to hear Mitch and the guys in conversation.

Mr. Rubin is an articulate advocate for the fund, as well as being a manager with a decades-long record of success.  In addition to listening to his conversation, there are two documents on the Long/Short fund’s homepage that interested parties should consult.  First, the fund profile has a lot of information about the fund’s performance back when it was a hedge fund which should give you a much better sense of its composition and performance over time.  Second, the manager’s commentary offers an intriguing list of industries which they believe to be ascendant or failing.  It’s sort of thought-provoking.

Conference Calls Upcoming: Great managers on-deck

As promised, we’re continuing our moderated conference calls through the winter.  You should consider joining in.  Here’s the story:

• Each call lasts about an hour
• About one third of the call is devoted to the manager’s explanation of their fund’s genesis and strategy, about one third is a Q&A that I lead, and about one third is Q&A between our callers and the manager.
• The call is, for you, free.  Your line is muted during the first two parts of the call (so you can feel free to shout at the danged cat or whatever) and you get to join the question queue during the last third by pressing the star key.

Our next conference call features Matt Moran and Dan Johnson, co-managers of ASTON / River Road Long Short (ARLSX).   I’ve had several conversations with the team and they strike me as singularly bright, articulate and disciplined.  When we profiled the fund in June, we noted:

The strategy’s risk-management measures are striking.  Through the end of Q1 2012, River Road’s Sharpe ratio (a measure of risk-adjusted returns) was 1.89 while its peers were at 0.49.  Its maximum drawdown (the drop from a previous high) was substantially smaller than its peers, it captured less of the market’s downside and more of its upside, in consequence of which its annualized return was nearly four times as great.

Among the crop of newer offerings, few are more sensibly-constructed or carefully managed that ARLSX seems to be.  It deserves attention.

If you’d like to share your attention with them, our call with ASTON / River Road Long  Short is Monday, December 17, from 7:00 – 8:00 Eastern.  To register for the call, just click on this link and follow the instructions.  I’ll send a reminder email on the day of the call to all of the registered parties.

As a service to our readers, we’ve constructed a mailing list that we’ll use to notify folks of upcoming conference call opportunities.  If you’d like to join but haven’t yet, feel free to drop me a note.

Fidelity’s Advice to Emerging Markets Investors: Avoid Us

Fidelity runs several distinct sets of funds, including Fidelity, Fidelity Advisor, Fidelity Select, and Fidelity Series.  In many ways, the most interesting are their Strategic Adviser funds which don’t even bear the Fidelity name.  The Strategic Adviser funds are “exclusive to clients of Portfolio Advisory Services. . . They allow Strategic Advisers to hire (and fire) sub-advisers as well as to buy, sell, and hold mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within the fund.”  In short, these are sort of “best ideas”  funds, two of which are funds of funds.

Which led to the question: would the smartest folks Fidelity could find, who could choose any funds around which to build a portfolio, choose Fidelity?

In the case of emerging markets, the answer is “uhh … no.”  Here’s the portfolio for Strategic Advisers Emerging Markets Fund of Funds (FLILX).

What should you notice?

1. The fund’s managers seem to find many funds more compelling than Fidelity Emerging Markets, and so it ends up sixth on the list.  Fidelity’s corporate folks seem to agree and they replaced the long-time manager of this one-star fund in mid October, 2012.
2. Measured against the March 2012 portfolio, Fidelity E.M. has seen the greatest decrease in its weighing (about 3.2%) of any fund in the portfolio.
3. Missing entirely from the list: Fidelity’s entire regional lineup including China Region, Emerging Asia, Emerging Middle East and Latin America.
4. For that matter, missing entirely from the list are anything but diversified large cap emerging markets stock funds.

Fidelity does noticeably better in the only other Strategic Advisers fund of funds, the Strategic Advisers^® Income Opportunities Fund of Funds (FSADX).

Why, exactly, the managers have invested in three different classes of the same Fidelity fund is a bit unclear but at least they are willing to invest with Fido.  It may also speak to the continuing decline of the Fidelity equity-investing side of the house while fixed-income becomes increasingly

A Site Worth Following: Learn Bonds

Junior Yearwood, our friend and contributing editor who has been responsible for our Best of the Web reviews, has been in conversation with Marc Prosser, a Forbes contributor and proprietor of the Learn Bonds website.  While the greatest part of Marc’s work focuses broadly on bond investing, he also offers ratings for a select group of bond mutual funds.  He has a sort of barbell approach, focusing on the largest bond fund companies and on the smallest.  His fund ratings, like Morningstar’s analyst ratings, are primarily qualitative and process-focused.

Marc doesn’t yet have data by which to assess the validity of his ratings (and, indeed, is articulately skeptical of that whole venture), so we can’t describe him as a Best of the Web site.  That said, Junior concluded that his site was clean, interesting, and worth investigating.  It was, he concluded, a new and notable site.

Launch Alert: Whitebox Long Short Equity (WBLSX,WBLRX,WBLFX)

On November 1, Whitebox Advisors converted their Whitebox Long Short Equity Partners hedge fund into the Whitebox Long Short Equity Fund which has three share classes.  As a hedge fund, Whitebox pretty much kicked butt.  From 2004 – 2012, it returned 15.8% annually while the S&P500 earned 5.2%.  At last report, the fund was just slightly net-long with a major short against the Russell 2000.

There’s great enthusiasm among the Observer’s discussion board members about Whitebox’s first mutual fund, Whitebox Tactical Opportunities (WBMAX) , which strongly suggests this one warrants some attention, if only from advisors who can buy it without a sales load. The Investor shares carry at 4.5% front load, 2.48% expense ratio and a $5000 minimum initial investment.  You might check the fund’s homepage for additional details.

Observer Fund Profiles

Had I mentioned that we visited RiverNorth?

Each month the Observer provides in-depth profiles of between two and four funds.  Our “Most Intriguing New Funds” are funds launched within the past couple years that most frequently feature experienced managers leading innovative newer funds.  “Stars in the Shadows” are older funds that have attracted far less attention than they deserve.  This month’s lineup features

Artisan Global Equity Fund (ARTHX):  you know a firm is in a good place when the most compelling alternatives to one of their funds are their other funds.  Global, run by Mark Yockey and his team, extends on the long-term success of Artisan International and International Small Cap.

RiverNorth Dynamic Buy Write (RNBWX): one of the most consistently successful (and rarely employed) strategies for managing portfolios in volatile markets is the use of covered calls.  After spending several hours with the RiverNorth team and several weeks reading the research, we may have an answer to a version of the old Ghostbusters question, “who you gonna (covered) call?”

Funds in Registration

New mutual funds must be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission before they can be offered for sale to the public.  The SEC has a 75-day window during which to call for revisions of a prospectus; fund companies sometimes use that same time to tweak a fund’s fee structure or operating details.  Every day we scour new SEC filings to see what opportunities might be about to present themselves. Many of the proposed funds offer nothing new, distinctive or interesting.  Some are downright horrors of Dilbertesque babble.

Funds in registration this month won’t be available for sale until, typically, the beginning of February 2013. Since firms really like launching by December 31^st if they can, the number of funds in the pipeline is modest: seven this month, as compared to 29 last month.  That said, two of the largest fixed-income teams are among those preparing to launch:

DoubleLine Floating Rate Fund, the tenth fund advised or sub-advised by DoubleLine, will seek a high level of current income by investing in floating rate loans and “other floating rate investments.”  The fund will be managed by Bonnie Baha and Robert Cohen.  Ms. Baha was part of Mr. Gundlach’s original TCW team and co-manages Multi-Asset Growth, Low-Duration Bond and ASTON/DoubleLine Core Plus Fixed Income.

PIMCO Emerging Markets Full Spectrum Bond Fund will invest in “a broad range of emerging market fixed income asset classes, such as external debt obligations of sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and corporate entities; currencies, and local currency-denominated obligations of sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns, and corporate issuers.”  The manager has not yet been named but, as we noted in our lead story, the odds are that this is going to be a top-of-class performer.

Details on these funds and the list of all of the funds in registration are available at the Observer’s Funds in Registration page or by clicking “Funds” on the menu atop each page.

On a related note, we also tracked down 40 fund manager changes, down from last month’s bloodbath in which 70 funds changed management.

The Observer in the News

Last month, we ran our annual Honor Roll of Consistently Bearable Funds, which asks the simple question:  “which mutual funds are never terrible?”  Our basic premise is that funds that earn high returns but crash periodically are, by and large, impossible for investors to hold.  And so we offered up a list of funds that have avoided crashing in any of the past ten years.  As it turns out, by managing beta, those funds ended up with substantial alpha.  In English: they made good money by avoiding losing money.

Chuck Jaffe has been looking at a related strategy for years, which led him to talk about and elaborate on our article.  His story, “A fund-picking strategy for nervous investors,” ran on November 19^th, ended up briefly (very briefly: no one can afford fifteen minutes of fame any more) on the front page of Google News and caused a couple thousand new folks to poke their heads in at the Observer.

Briefly Noted . . .

Artisan Partners has again filed for an initial public offering.  They withdrew a 2011 filing in the face of adverse market conditions.  Should you care?  Investors can afford to ignore it since it doesn’t appear that the IPO will materially change operations or management; it mostly generates cash to buy back a portion of the firm from outsiders and to compensate some of the portfolio guys.  Competitors, frankly, should care.  Artisan is about the most successful, best run small firm fund that I know of: they’ve attracted nearly $70 billion in assets, have a suite of uniformly strong funds, stable management teams and a palpable commitment to serving their shareholders.  If I were in the business, I’d want to learn a lot – and think a lot – about how they’ve managed that feat.  Sudden access to a bunch more information would help.

One of The Wall Street Journal columnists surveyed “financial advisers, mutual-fund experts and academics” in search of the five best books for beginning investors.  Other than for the fact that they missed Andrew Tobias’s The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, it’s a pretty solid list with good works from the efficient market and behavioral finance folks.

SMALL WINS FOR INVESTORS

Clipper (CFIMX), Davis New York Venture (NYVTX), and Selected American Shares (SLASX) have waived their 30-day trading restriction for the rest of 2012, in case investors want to do some repositioning in anticipation of higher capital gains tax rates in 2013.

Dreyfus/The Boston Company Small Cap Growth (SSETX) reopened to new investors on Nov. 1.

Victoria 1522 (VMDIX/VMDAX), an emerging markets stock fund, is cutting its expense ratio by 40 basis points. That’s much better news than you think. Glance at Morningstar’s profile of the lower-minimum Advisor shares and you’ll see a two-star fund and move on.  That reading is, for two reasons, short-sighted.  First, the lower expense ratio would make a major difference; the institutional shares, at 25 bps below the Advisor shares, gain a star (as of 11/30/12) and this reduction gives you 40 bps.  Second, the three-year record masks an exceedingly strong four-plus year record.  From inception (10/08) through the end of 11/12, Victoria 1522 would have turned a $10,000 investment into $19,850.  Its peer over the same period would have returned $13,500. That’s partly attributable to good luck: the fund launched in October 2008 and made about 3% in the quarter while its peers dropped nearly 21%.  Even excluding that great performance (that is, looking at 1/09 – 11/12), the fund has modestly outperformed its peer group despite the drag of its soon-to-be-lowered expenses.  ManagerJosephine Jiménez has a long, distinguished record, including long stints running Montgomery Asset Management’s emerging markets division.  (Thanks to Jake Mortell of Candlewood Advisory for the heads up!)

Wells Fargo has reopened the Class A shares of its Wells Fargo Advantage Dow Jones Target funds: Target Today, 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040.

CLOSINGS

AllianceBernstein Small Cap Growth (QUASX) will close to new investors on January 31, 2013. That’s all I noticed this month.

OLD WINE, NEW BOTTLES

Calvert Enhanced Equity (CMIFX) will be renamed Calvert Large Cap Core in January 2013.

Actually, this one is a little bit more like “old vinegar in new bottles.”  Dominion Insight Growth Fund was reorganized into the Shepherd Large Cap Growth Fund in 2002.  Shepherd LCG changed its name to the Shepherd Fund in 2008. Then Shepherd Fund became Foxhall Global Trends Fund in 2009, and now Foxhall Global Trends has become Fairfax Global Trends Fund (DOIGX). In all of the name changes, some things have remained constant: low assets, high expenses, wretched performance (they’ve finished in the 98^th -99^th percentile for the trailing one, three, five and ten year periods).

Forward Aggressive Growth Allocation Fund became Forward Multi-Strategy Fund on December 3, 2012, which is just a bit vanilla. The 50 other multi-strategy funds in Morningstar’s database include Dynamic, Ethical, Global, Hedged and Progressive flavors of the marketing flavor du jour.

In non-news, Marathon Value Portfolio (MVPFX) is moving from the Unified Series Trust to  Northern Lights Fund Trust III. That’s their third move and I mention it only because the change causes the SEC to flag MVPFX as a “new” fund.  It isn’t new, though it is a five-star, “Star in the Shadows” fund and worth knowing about.

Wells Fargo Advantage Total Return Bond (MBFAX) will be renamed Wells Fargo Advantage Core Bond sometime in December.

OFF TO THE DUSTBIN OF HISTORY

Geez, the dustbin of history is filling up fast . . .

BNY Mellon Intermediate U.S. Government (MOVIX) is merging into BNY Mellon Intermediate Bond (MIIDX) in February, though the manager is the same for both funds.

Buffalo plans to merge Buffalo China (BUFCX) into Buffalo International (BUFIX) in January, 2013. The fund was originally sub-advised by Jayhawk Capital and I long ago wrote a hopeful profile of the then-new fund. Jayhawk ran it for three years, making huge amounts twice (2007 and 2009), lost a huge amount once (2008), lived in the basement of a highly volatile category and were replaced in 2009 by an in-house management team. The fund has been better but never rose to “good” and never drew assets.

Dreman is killing off five of the six funds: Contrarian International Value (DRIVX), Contrarian Mid Cap Value (DRMVX), Contrarian Value Equity (DRVAX), High Opportunity (DRLVX), and Market Over-Reaction (DRQLX).  Mr. Dreman has a great reputation and had a great business sub-advising load-bearing funds.  Around 2003, Dreman launched a series of in-house, no-load funds.  That experiment, by and large, failed.  The funds were rebranded and repriced, but never earned their way.  The fate of their remaining fund, Dreman Contrarian Small Cap Value (DRSVX), is unknown.

Dreyfus/The Boston Company Small Cap Tax-Sensitive Equity (SDCEX) will liquidate on January 8, 2013 and Dreyfus Small Cap (DSVAX) disappears a week later. Dreyfus is also liquidating a bunch of money market and state bond funds.

Fidelity is pulling a rare 5:1 reverse split by merging Tax Managed Stock (FTXMX), Advisor Strategic Growth (FTQAX), Advisor 130/30 Large Cap (FOATX), and Large Cap Growth (FSLGX) into Fidelity Stock Selector All Cap (FSSKX).

Guggenheim Flexible Strategies (RYBSX) (formerly Guggenheim Long Short Interest Rate Strategies) is slated to merge into Guggenheim Macro Opportunities (GIOAX).

Henderson Global is liquidating their International All Cap Equity (HFNAX) and the Japan Focus (HFJAX) funds in December.

Legg Mason has decided to liquidate Legg Mason Capital Management Disciplined Equity Research (LGMIX), likely on the combination of weak performance and negligible assets.

Munder International Equity (MUIAX) will merge into Munder International Core Equity (MAICX) on Dec. 7.

The board of Northern Funds approved the liquidation of Northern Global Fixed Income (NOIFX) for January 2013.

Pear Tree Columbia Micro Cap (MICRX) just liquidated.  They gave the fund all of one year before declaring it to be a failed experiment.

RidgeWorth plans to merge RidgeWorth Large Cap Core Growth Stock (CRVAX) will be absorbed by RidgeWorth Large Cap Growth Stock (STCIX).

Turner is merging Turner Concentrated Growth (TTOPX) into Turner Large Growth (TCGFX) in early 2013.

Westwood has decided to liquidate Westwood Balanced (WHGBX) less than a year after the departure of longtime lead manager Susan Byrne.

In February, Wells Fargo Advantage Diversified Small Cap (NVDSX) disappears into Wells Fargo Advantage Small Company Growth (NVSCX), Advantage Equity Value (WLVAX) into Advantage Intrinsic Value (EIVAX) and Advantage Small/Mid Cap Core (ECOAX) into Advantage Common Stock (SCSAX).

Well Fargo is also liquidating its Wells Fargo Advantage Core builder Series (WFBGX) in early 2013.

Coming Attractions!

The Observer is trying to help two distinct but complementary groups of folks.  One group are investors who are trying to get past all the noise and hype.  (CNBC’s ratings are dropping like a rock, which should help.)  We’re hoping, in particular, to help folks examine evidence or possibilities that they wouldn’t normally see.  The other group are the managers and other folks associated with small funds and fund boutiques.  We believe in you.  We believe that, as the industry evolves, too much emphasis falls on asset-gathering and on funds launched just for the sake of dangling something new and shiny (uhh … the All Cap Insider Sentiment ETF).  We believe that small, independent funds run by smart, passionate investors deserve a lot more consideration than they receive.  And so we profile them, write about them and talk with other folks in the media about them.

As the Observer has become a bit more financially sustainable, we’re now looking at the prospect of launching two sister sites.  One of those sites will, we hope, be populated with the best commentaries gathered from the best small fund managers and teams that we can find.  Many of you folks write well and some write with grace that far exceeds mine.  The problem, managers tell me, is that fewer people than you’d like find their way to your sites and to your insights.

Our technical team, which Chip leads, thinks that they can create an attractive, fairly vibrant site that could engage readers and help them become more aware of some of the smaller fund families and their strategies.  We respect intellectual property, and so we’d only use content that was really good and whose sharing was supported by the adviser.

That’s still in development.  If you manage a fund or work in support of one and would like to participate in thinking about what would be most helpful, drop Chip a note and we’ll find a way to think through this together.  (Thanks!)

Small cap funds tend to have their best performance in the first six weeks of each year and so we’re planned a smallcapfest for our January issue, with new or revised profiles of the most sensible small cap funds as well as a couple outside perspectives on where you might look.

In Closing . . .

I wanted to share leads on three opportunities that you might want to look in on.  The Observer has no financial stake in any of this stuff but I like sharing word of things that strike me as really first-rate.

QuoteArts.com is a small shop that consistently offers a bunch of the most attractive, best written greeting cards (and refrigerator magnets) that I’ve seen.  Steve Metivier, who runs the site, gave us permission to reproduce one of their images (normally the online version is watermarked):

The text reads “A time to quiet our hearts… (inside) to soften our edges, clear our minds, enjoy our world, and to share best wishes for the season. May these days and all the new year be joyful and peaceful.”  It strikes me as an entirely-worthy aspiration.

The best book there is on the subject of practical persuasion is Robert Cialdini’s Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (revised edition, 2006).  Even if you’re not impressed that I’ve used the book in teaching persuasion over the past 20 years, you might be impressed by Charlie Munger’s strong endorsement of it.  In a talk entitled “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” Munger reports being so impressed with Cialdini’s work that he read the book, gave copies of it to all his children and sent Cialdini (“chawl-dee-nee,” if you care) a share of Berkshire Hathaway in thanks.   Cialdini has since left academe, founded the consulting group Influence at Work and now offers Principles of Persuasion workshops for professionals and the public. While I have not researched the workshops in any depth, I suspect that if I were a small business owner, marketer or financial planner who needed to both attract clients and change their behavior for the better. I’d take a serious look.

Finally, at Amazon’s invitation, I contributed an essay that will be posted at their new “Money and Markets” store from December 5th until about the 12th.  Its original title was, “It’s time to go,” but Amazon’s project director and I ended up settling on the less alarming “Trees don’t grow to the sky.”  If you’ve shopped at, say, Macy’s, you’re familiar with the store-within-a-store notion: free-standing, branded specialty shops (Levenger’s, LUSH, FAO Schwarz) operating within a larger enterprise.  It looks like Amazon is trying an experiment in the same direction and, in November, we mentioned their “Money and Markets” store.  Apparently the Amazonians noticed the fact that some of you folks went to look around, they followed your footprints back here and did some reading of their own.  One feature of the Money and Markets store is a weekly guest column and the writers have included Jack Bogle and Tadas Viskanta, the founder of Abnormal Returns which is one of the web’s two best financial news aggregators.  In any case, they asked if I’d chip in a piece during the second week of December.   We’re not allowed to repost the content for a week or so, but I’ll include it in the January cover essay.  Feel free to drop by if you’re in the area.

In the meanwhile, I wanted to extend sincere thanks from all of the folks here (chip, Anya, Junior, Accipiter and me) for the year you’ve shared with us.  You really do make it all worthwhile and so blessings of the season on you and yours.

As ever,

Dear friends,

I had imagined this as the “post-storm, pre-cliff” edition of the Observer but it appears that “post-storm” would be a very premature characterization.  For four million of our friends who are still without power, especially those along the coast or in outlying areas, the simple pleasures of electric lighting and running water remain a distant hope.  And anything that looks like “normal” might be months in their future.  Our thoughts, prayers, good wishes and spare utility crews go out to them.

I thought, instead, I’d say something about the U.S. presidential election.  This is going to sting, but here it is:

It’s going to be okay.

Hard to believe, isn’t it?  We’re acculturated into viewing the election if as it were some apocalyptic video game whose tagline reads: “America can’t survive .”  The reality is, we can and we will.  The reality is that both Obama and Romney are good guys: smart, patriotic, obsessively hard-working, politically moderate, fact-driven, given to compromise and occasionally funny.  The reality is that they’re both trapped by the demands of electoral politics and polarized bases.

But, frankly, freed of the constraints of those bases, these guys would agree on rather more than they disagree on.  In a less-polarized world, they could run together as a ticket (Obomney 2020!) and do so with a great deal of camaraderie and mutual respect. (Biden-Ryan, on the other hand, would be more than a little bit scary.)  Neither strikes me as a great politician or polished communicator; that’s going to end up constraining – and perhaps crippling – whoever wins.

Why are we so negative?  Because negative (“fear and loathing on the campaign trail”) raises money (likely $6 billion by the time it’s all done) and draws viewers.  While it’s easy to blame PACs, super PACs and other dark forces for that state, the truth is that the news media – mainstream and otherwise – paint good men as evil.  A startling analysis conducted by the Project for Excellence in Journalism found that 72% of all character references to Messrs. Obama and Romney are negative, one of the most negative set of press portrayals on record.

I live in Iowa, labeled a “battleground state,” and I receive four to six (largely poisonous) robo-calls a day.  And so here’s the final reality: Iowa is not a battleground and we’d all be better off if folks stopped using the term.  It’s a place where a bunch of folks are worried, a bunch of folks (often the same ones) are hopeful and we’re trying to pick as best we can.

The Last Ten: T. Rowe Price in the Past Decade

In October we launched “The Last Ten,” a monthly series, running between now and February, looking at the strategies and funds launched by the Big Five fund companies (Fido, Vanguard, T Rowe, American and PIMCO) in the last decade.  We started with Fidelity, once fabled for the predictable success of its new fund launches.  Sadly, the pattern of the last decade is clear and clearly worse: despite 154 fund launches since 2002, Fidelity has created no compelling new investment option and only one retail fund that has earned Morningstar’s five-star designation, Fidelity International Growth (FIGFX).  We suggested three causes: the need to grow assets, a cautious culture and a firm that’s too big to risk innovative funds.

T. Rowe Price is a far smaller firm.  Where Fidelity has $1.4 trillion in assets under management, Price is under $600 billion.  Fidelity manages 340 funds.  Price has 110.  Fidelity launched 154 funds in a decade, Price launched 22.

What are the patterns?

1. Most Price funds reflect the firm’s strength in asset allocation and emerging asset classes. Price does really first-rate work in thinking about which assets classes make sense and in what configuration. They’ve done a good job of communicating that research to their investors, making things clear without making them childish.
2. Most Price funds succeed. Of the funds launched, only Strategic Income (PRSNX) has been a consistent laggard; it has trailed its peer group in four consecutive years but trailed disastrously only once (2009).
3. Most Price funds remain reasonably nimble. While Fido funds quickly swell into the multi-billion range, a lot of the Price funds have remaining under $200 million which gives them both room to grow and to maneuver. The really large funds are the retirement-date series, which are actually funds of other funds.
4. Price continues to buck prevailing wisdom. There’s no sign of blossoming index fund business or the launch of a series of superfluous ETFs. There’s a lot to be said for knowing your strengths and continuing to develop them.

Finally, Price continues to deliver on its promises. Investing with Price is the equivalent of putting a strong singles-hitter on a baseball team; it’s a bet that you’ll win with consistency and effort, rather than the occasional spectacular play. The success of that strategy is evident in Price’s domination of . . .

The Observer’s Honor Roll, Unlike Any Other

Last month, in the spirit of FundAlarm’s “three-alarm” fund list, we presented the Observer’s second Roll Call of the Wretched.  Those were funds that managed to trail their peers for the past one-, three-, five- and ten-year periods, with special commendation for the funds that added high expenses and high volatility to the mix.

This month, I’d like to share the Observer’s Honor Roll of Consistently Bearable Funds.  Most such lists start with a faulty assumption: that high returns are intrinsically good.

Wrong!

While high returns can be a good thing, the practical question is how those returns are obtained.  If they’re the product of alternately sizzling and stone cold performances, the high returns are worse than meaningless: they’re a deadly lure to hapless investors and advisors.  Investors hate losing money much more than they love making it.

In light of that, the Observer asked a simple question: which mutual funds are never terrible?  In constructing the Honor Roll, we did not look at whether a fund ever made a lot of money.  We looked only at whether a fund could consistently avoid being rotten.  Our logic is this: investors are willing to forgive the occasional sub-par year, but they’ll flee in terror in the face of a horrible one.  That “sell low” – occasionally “sell low and stuff the proceeds in a zero-return money fund for five years” – is our most disastrous response.

We looked for no-load, retail funds which, over the past ten years, have never finished in the bottom third of their peer groups.   And while we weren’t screening for strong returns, we ended up with a list of funds that consistently provided them anyway.

U.S. stock funds

International stock funds

Blended asset funds

Specialty funds

Reflections on the Honor Roll

These funds earn serious money.  Twenty-nine of the 33 funds earn four or five stars from Morningstar.  Four earn three stars, and none earn less.  By screening for good risk management, you end up with strong returns.

This is consistent with the recent glut of research on low-volatility investing.  Here’s the basic story: a portfolio of low-volatility stocks returns one to two percent more than the stock market while taking on 25% less risk.

That’s suspiciously close to the free lunch we’re not supposed to get.

There’s a very fine, short article on low-volatility investing in the New York Times: “In Search of Funds that Don’t Rock the Boat” (October 6, 2012).  PIMCO published some of the global data, showing (at slightly numbing length) that the same pattern holds in both developed and developing markets: “Stock Volatility: Not What You Might Think” (January 2012). There are a slug of ETFs that target low-volatility stocks but I’d be hesitant to commit to one until we’d looked at other risk factors such as turnover, market cap and sector concentration.

The roster is pretty stable.  Only four funds that qualified under these screens at the end of 2011 dropped out in 2012.  They are:

FPA Crescent (FPACX) – a 33% cash stake isn’t (yet) helping.  That said, this has been such a continually excellent fund that I worry more about the state of the market than about the state of Crescent.

New Century Capital (NCCPX) – a small, reasonably expensive fund-of funds that’s trailing 77% of its peers this year.  It’s been hurt, mostly, by being overweight in energy and underweight in resurgent financials.

New Century International (NCFPX) – another fund-of-funds that’s trailing about 80% of its peers, hurt by a huge overweight in emerging markets (primarily Latin), energy, and Canada (which is sort of an energy play).

Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) – it hasn’t been a good year to hold a lot of Treasuries, and PRPFX by mandate does.

The list shows less than half of the turnover you’d expect if funds were there by chance.

One fund deserves honorable mention.  T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRCWX) has only had one relatively weak year in this century; in 2007, it finished in the 69^th percentile which made it (barely) miss inclusion.

What you’ve heard about T. Rowe Price is true.  You know all that boring “discipline, consistency, risk-awareness” stuff.  Apparently so.  There are 10 Price funds on the list, nearly one-third of the total.  Second place: Fidelity and Vanguard, far larger firms, with six funds.

Sure bets?  Nope.  Must have?  Dear God, no.  A potentially useful insight into picking winners by dodging a penchant for the occasional disaster?  We think so.

In dullness there is strength.

“TrimTabs ETF Outperforms Hedge Funds”

And underperforms pretty much everybody else.  The nice folks at FINAlternatives (“Hedge Fund and Private Equity News”) seem to have reproduced (or condensed) a press release celebrating the first-year performance of TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS).

(Sorry – you can get to the original by Googling the title but a direct-link always takes you to a log-in screen.)

Why is this journalism?  They don’t offer the slightest hint about what the fund does.  And, not to rain on anybody’s ETF, but their trailing 12-month return (21.46% at NAV, as of 10/18) places them 2050th in Morningstar’s database.  That list includes a lot of funds which have been consistently excellent (Akre Focus, BBH Core Select (closing soon – see below), ING Corporate Leaders, Mairs & Power Growth and Sequoia) for decades, so it’s not immediately clear what warrants mention.

Seafarer Rolls On

Andrew Foster’s Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income Fund (SFGIX) continues its steady gains.

The fund is outperforming every reasonable benchmark: $10,000 invested at the fund’s inception has grown to $10,865 (as of 10/26/12).  The same amount invested in the S&P’s diversified emerging markets, emerging Asia and emerging Latin America ETFs would have declined by 5-10%.

Assets are steadily rolling in: the fund is now at $17 million after six months of operation and has been gaining nearly two million a month since summer.

Opinion-makers are noticing: Andrew and David Nadel of Royce Global Value (and five other funds ‘cause that’s what Royce managers do) were the guests on October 26th edition of Wealth Track with Consuelo Mack.  It was good to hear ostensible “growth” and “value” investors agree on so much about what to look for in emerging market stocks and which countries they were assiduously avoiding.  The complete interview on video is available here.  (Thanks to our endlessly vigilant Ted for both the heads-up and the video link.)

Legg Mason Rolls Over

Legg Mason seems to be struggling.  On the one hand we have the high visibility struggles of its former star manager, Bill Miller, who’s now in the position of losing more money for more people than almost any manager.  Their most recent financial statement, released July 27, shows that assets, operating revenue, operating income, and earnings are all down from the year before.   Beside that, there’s a more fundamental struggle to figure out what Legg Mason is and who wants to bear the name.

On October 5 2009 Legg announced a new naming strategy for its funds:

Most funds that were formerly named Legg Mason or Legg Mason Partners will now include the Legg Mason name, the name of the investment affiliate and the Fund’s strategy (such as the Legg Mason ClearBridge Appreciation Fund or the Legg Mason Western Asset Managed Municipals Fund).

The announced rationale was to “leverage the Legg Mason brand awareness.”

Welcome to the age of deleveraging:  This year those same funds are moving to hide the Legg Mason taint.  Western Asset dropped the Legg Mason number this summer.  Clearbridge is now following suit, so that the Legg Mason ClearBridge Appreciation Fund is about to become just Clearbridge Appreciation.

Royce, another Legg Mason affiliate, has never advertised that association.  Royce has always had a great small-value discipline. Since being acquired by Legg Mason in 2001, the firm acquired two other, troubling distinctions.

1. Managers who are covering too many funds.  By way of a quick snapshot, here are the funds managed by 72-year-old Chuck Royce (and this is after he dropped several):
   

   Since …	He’s managed …
   12/2010	Royce Global Dividend Value
   08/2010	Royce Micro-Cap Discovery
   04/2009	Royce Partners
   06/2008	Royce International Smaller-Companies
   09/2007	Royce Enterprise Select
   12/2006	Royce European Smaller Companies
   06/2005	Royce Select II
   05/2004	Royce Dividend Value
   12/2003	Royce Financial Services
   06/2003	Royce 100
   11/1998	Royce Select I
   12/1995	Royce Heritage
   12/1993	Royce Total Return
   12/1991	Royce Premier
   11/1972	Royce Pennsylvania Mutual

    

   Their other senior manager, Whitney George, manages 11 funds.  David Nadel works on nine, Lauren Romeo helps manage eight.

2. A wild expansion out of their traditional domestic small-value strength.  Between 1962 and 2001, Royce launched nine funds – all domestic small caps.  Between 2001 and the present, they launched 21 mutual funds and three closed-end funds in a striking array of flavors (Global Select Long/Short, International Micro-Cap, European Smaller Companies).  While many of those later launches have performed well, many have found no traction in the market.  Fifteen of their post-2001 launches have under $100 million in assets, 10 have under $10 million.  That translates into higher expenses in some already-expensive niches and a higher hurdle for the managers to overcome.Legg reports progressively weaker performance among the Royce funds in recent years:
   

   Three out of 30 funds managed by Royce outperformed their benchmarks for the 1-year period; 4 out of 24 for the 3-year period; 12 out of 19 for the 5-year period; and all 11 outperformed for the 10-year period.

That might be a sign of a fundamentally unhealthy market or the accumulated toll of expenses and expansion.  Shostakovich, one of our discussion board’s most experienced correspondents, pretty much cut to the chase on the day Royce reopened its $1.1 billion micro-cap fund to additional investors: “Chuck sold his soul. He kept his cashmere sweaters and his bow ties, but he sold his soul. And the devil’s name is Legg Mason.”  Interesting speculation.

Observer Fund Profiles

Each month the Observer provides in-depth profiles of between two and four funds.  Our “Most Intriguing New Funds” are funds launched within the past couple years that most frequently feature experienced managers leading innovative newer funds.  “Stars in the Shadows” are older funds that have attracted far less attention than they deserve.  This month’s lineup features

Scout Unconstrained Bond (SUBFX): If these guys have a better track record than the one held by any bond mutual fund (and they do), why haven’t you heard of it?  Worse yet, why hadn’t I?

Stewart Capital Mid-Cap (SCMFX):  If this is one of the top two or three or ten mid-cap funds in operation (and it is), why haven’t you heard of it?  Worse yet, why hadn’t I?

Launch Alert: RiverNorth Dynamic Buy-Write Fund (RNBWX)

On  October 12, 2012, RiverNorth launched their fourth fund, RiverNorth Dynamic Buy-Write Fund.  “Buy-write” describes a sort of “covered call” strategy in which an investor might own a security and then sell to another investor the option to buy the security at a preset price in a preset time frame.  It is, in general, a defensive strategy which generates a bit of income and some downside protection for the investor who owns the security and writes the option.

As with any defensive strategy, you end up surrendering some upside in order to avoid some of the downside.  RiverNorth’s launch announcement contained a depiction of the risk-return profiles for a common buy-write index (the BXM) and three classes of stock:

A quick read is that the BXM offered 90% of the upside of the stock market with only 70% of the downside, which seems the very definition of a good tradeoff.

RiverNorth believes they can do better through active management of the portfolio.  The fund will be managed by Eric Metz, who joined RiverNorth in 2012 and serves as their Derivatives Strategist.  He’s been a partner at Bengal Capital, a senior trader at Ronin Capital and worked at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).   The investment minimum is $5000.  Expenses are capped at 1.80%.

Because the strategy is complex, the good folks at RiverNorth have agreed to an extended interview at their offices in Chicago on November 8^th.  With luck and diligence, we’ll provide a full profile of the fund in our December issue.

Funds in Registration

New mutual funds must be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission before they can be offered for sale to the public.  The SEC has a 75-day window during which to call for revisions of a prospectus; fund companies sometimes use that same time to tweak a fund’s fee structure or operating details.  Every day we scour new SEC filings to see what opportunities might be about to present themselves.  Many of the proposed funds offer nothing new, distinctive or interesting.  Some are downright horrors of Dilbertesque babble.

Twenty-nine new no-load funds were placed in registration this month.  Those include three load-bearing funds becoming no-loads, two hedge funds merging to become one mutual fund, one institutional fund becoming retail and two dozen new offerings.  An unusually large number of the new funds feature very experienced managers.  Four, in particular, caught our attention:

BBH Global Core Select is opening just as the five-star BBH Core Select closes.  Core Select invests about 15% of its money outside the U.S., while the global version will place at least 40% there.  One of Core Select’s managers will co-manage the new fund with a BBH analyst.

First Trust Global Tactical Asset Allocation and Income Fund will be an actively-managed ETF that “seek[s] total return and provide income [and] a relatively stable risk profile.”  The managers, John Gambla and Rob A. Guttschow, had been managing five closed-end funds for Nuveen.

Huber Capital Diversified Large Cap Value Fund, which will invest in 40-80 large caps that trade “at a significant discount to the present value of future cash flows,” will be run by Joseph Huber, who also manages the five-star Huber Small Cap Value (HUSIX) and Huber Equity Income (HULIX) funds.

Oakseed Opportunity Fund is a new global fund, managed by Greg L. Jackson and John H. Park. These guys managed or co-managed some “A” tier funds (Oakmark Global, Acorn, Acorn Select and Yacktman) before moving to Blum Capital, a private equity firm, from about 2004-2012.

Details on these funds and the list of all of the funds in registration are available at the Observer’s Funds in Registration page or by clicking “Funds” on the menu atop each page.

On a related note, we also tracked down about 50 fund manager changes, including the blockbuster announcement of Karen Gaffney’s departure from Loomis Sayles.

RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity conference call

Based on the success of our September conference call with David Sherman of Cohanzick Asset Management and RiverPark’s president, Morty Schaja, we have decided to try to provide our readers with one new opportunity each month to speak with an “A” tier fund manager.

The folks at RiverPark generously agreed to participate in a second conference call with Observer readers. It will feature Mitch Rubin, lead manager of RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity (RLSFX), a fund that we profiled in August as distinctive and distinctly promising.  This former hedge fund crushed its peers.

I’ll moderate the call.  Mitch will open by talking a bit about the fund’s strategy and then will field questions (yours and mine) on the fund’s strategies and prospects. The call is November 29 at 7:00 p.m., Eastern. Participants can register for the conference by navigating to  http://services.choruscall.com/diamondpass/registration?confirmationNumber=10020992

We’ll have the winter schedule in our December issue.  For now, I’ll note that managers of several really good funds have indicated a willingness to spend serious time with you.

Small Funds Communicating Smartly

The Mutual Fund Education Alliance announced their 2012 STAR Awards, which recognize fund companies that do a particularly good job of communicating with their investors.  As is common with such awards, there’s an impulse to make sure lots of folks get to celebrate so there are 17 sub-categories in each of three channels (retail, advisor, plan participant) plus eleven overall winners, for 62 awards in total.

US Global Investors was recognized as the best small firm overall, for “consistency of messaging and excellent use of the various distribution outlets.”  Matthews Asia was celebrated as the outstanding mid-sized fund firm.  Judges recognized them for “modern, effective design [and] unbelievable branding consistency.”

Ironically, MFEA’s own awards page is danged annoying with an automatic slide presentation that makes it hard to read about any of the individual winners.

Congratulations to both firms.  We’d also like to point you to our own Best of the Web winners for most effective site design: Seafarer Funds and Cook & Bynum Fund, with honorable mentions to Wintergreen, Auxier Focus and the Tilson Funds.

Briefly Noted . . .

Artio meltdown continues.  The Wall Street Journal reports that Richard Pell, Artio’s CEO, has stepped down.  Artio is bleeding assets, having lost nearly 50% of their assets under management in the past 12 months.  Their stock price is down 90% since its IPO and we’d already reported the closure of their domestic-equity funds.  This amounts to a management reshuffle, with Artio’s president becoming CEO and Pell remaining at CIO.  He’ll also continue to co-manage the once-great (top 5% over 15 years, bottom 5% over the past five years) Artio International Equity Fund (BJBIX) with Rudolph-Riad Younes.

SMALL WINS FOR INVESTORS

Dreyfus/The Boston Company Small Cap Growth Fund (SSETX) reopened to new investors on November 1, 2012. It’s a decent little fund with below average expenses.  Both risk and return tend to be below average as well, with risk further below average than returns.

Fidelity announced the launch of a dozen new target-date funds in its Strategic Advisers Multi-Manager Series, 2020 through 2055 and Retirement Income.  The Multi-Manager series allows Fidelity to sell the skills of non-Fidelity managers (and their funds) to selected retirement plans.  Christopher Sharpe and Andrew Dierdorf co-manage all of the funds.

CLOSINGS

The board of BBH Core Select (BBTEX) has announced its imminent closure.  The five-star large cap fund has $3.2 billion in assets and will close at $3.5 billion.  Given its stellar performance and compact 30-stock portfolio, that’s certainly in its shareholders’ best interests.  At the same time, BBH has filed to launched a Global Core fund by year’s end.  It will be managed by one of BBTEX’s co-managers.  For details, see our Funds in Registration feature.

Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy (BRCAX) will close to new investors effective November 15, 2012.

Investment News reports that 86 ETFs ceased operations in the first 10 months of 2012.  Wisdom Tree announced three more in late October (LargeCap Growth ROI,  South African Rand SZR and Japanese Yen JYF). Up until 2012, the greatest number of closures in a single calendar year was 58 during the 2008 meltdown.  400 more (Indonesian Small Caps, anyone?) reside on the ETF Deathwatch for October 2012; ETFs with tiny investor bases and little trading activity.  The hidden dimension of the challenge provided by small ETFs is the ability of their boards to dramatically change their investment mandates in search of new assets.  Investors in Global X S&P/TSX Venture 30 Canada ETF (think “Canadian NASDAQ”) suddenly found themselves instead in Global X Junior Miners ETF (oooo … exposure to global, small-cap nickel mining!).

OLD WINE, NEW BOTTLES

Under the assumption that indecipherable is good, Allianz announced three name changes: Allianz AGIC Structured Alpha Fund is becoming AllianzGI Structured Alpha Fund. Allianz AGIC U.S. Equity Hedged Fund becomes AllianzGI U.S. Equity Hedged Fund and Allianz NFJ Emerging Markets Value Fund becomes AllianzGI NFJ Emerging Markets Value Fund.

BBH Broad Market (BBBIX) has changed its name to BBH Limited Duration Fund.

Effective December 3, 2012, the expensive, small and underperforming Forward Aggressive Growth Allocation Fund (ACAIX) will be changed to the Forward Multi-Strategy Fund. Along with the new name, this fund of funds gets to add “long/short, tactical and other alternative investment strategies” to its armamentarium.  Presumably that’s driven by the fact that the fund does quite poorly in falling markets: it has trailed its benchmark in nine of the past nine declining quarters.  Sadly, adding hedge-like funds to the portfolio will only drive up expenses and serve as another drag on performance.

Schwab Premier Income (SWIIX) will soon become Schwab Intermediate-Term Bond, with lower expenses but a much more restrictive mandate.  At the moment the fund can go anywhere (domestic, international and emerging market debt, income- and non-income-producing equities, floating rate securities, REITs, ETFs) but didn’t, while the new fund will invest only in domestic intermediate term bonds.

Moving in the opposite direction, Alger Large Cap Growth Institutional (ALGRX) becomes Alger Capital Appreciation Focus at the end of the year. The fund will adopt an all-cap mandate, but will shrink the target portfolio size from around 100 stocks to 50.

OFF TO THE DUSTBIN OF HISTORY

The Board of Directors of Bhirud Funds Inc. has approved the liquidation of Apex Mid Cap Growth Fund (BMCGX) effective on or about November 14, 2012. In announcing Apex’s place on our 2012 “Roll Call of the Wretched,” we noted:

The good news: not many people trust Suresh Bhirud with their money.  His Apex Mid Cap Growth (BMCGX) had, at last record, $192,546 – $100,000 below last year’s level.  Two-thirds of that amount is Mr. Bhirud’s personal investment.  Mr. Bhirud has managed the fund since its inception in 1992 and, with annualized losses of 9.2% over the past 15 years, has mostly impoverished himself.

We’re hopeful he puts his remaining assets in a nice, low-risk index fund.

The Board of Trustees of Dreyfus Investment Funds approved the liquidation of Dreyfus/The Boston Company Small Cap Tax-Sensitive Equity Fund (SDCEX) on January 8, 2013.  Ironically, this fund has outperformed the larger, newly-reopened SSETX.  And, while they were at it, the Board also approved the liquidation of Dreyfus Small Cap Fund (the “Fund”), effective on January 16, 2013

ING will liquidate ING Alternative Beta (IABAX) on December 7, 2012.  In addition to an obscure mandate (what is alternative beta?), the fund has managed to lose money over the past three years while drawing only $18 million in assets.

Munder International Equity Fund (MUIAX) is slated to be merged in Munder International Fund — Core Equity (MAICX), on December 7, 2012.

Uhhh . . .

Don’t get me wrong.  MUIAX is a bad fund (down 18% in five years) and deserves to go.  But MAICX is a worse fund by far (it’s down 29% in the same period).  And much smaller.  And newer.

This probably explains why I could never serve on a fund’s board of directors.  Their logic is simply too subtle for me.

Royce Mid-Cap (RMIDX) is set to be liquidated on November 19, 2012. It’s less than three years old, has performed poorly and managed to draw just a few million in assets.  The management team is being dispersed among Royce’s other funds.

It was named Third Millennium Russia Fund (TMRFX) and its charge was to invest “in securities of companies located in Russia.”  This is a fund that managed to gain or lose more than 70% in three of the past 10 years.  Investors have largely fled and so, effective October 10, 2012, the board of trustees tweaked things.  It’s now called Toreador International Fund and its mandate is to invest “outside of the United States.”  As of this writing, Morningstar had not yet noticed.

In Closing . . .

We’ve added an unusual bit of commercial presence, over to your right.  Amazon created a mini-site dedicated to the interests of investors.  In addition to the inevitable links to popular investing books, it features a weekly blog post, a little blog aggregator at the bottom (a lot of content from Bloomberg, some from Abnormal Returns and Seeking Alpha), and some sort of dead, dead, dead discussion group.  We thought you might find some of it useful or at least browseable, so we decided to include it for you.

And yes, it does carry MFO’s embedded link.  Thanks for asking!

Thanks, too, to all the folks (Gary, Martha, Dean, Richard, two Jacks, and one Turtle) who contributed to the Observer in October.

We’ll look for you in December.